Production - Exploration - Whats the End Game?

[James Regan + 1,776]

Im no analyst (thats obvious) I'm looking at this as a grunt who has worked my whole life from 18 years old to 51in the exploration and production side, a roustabout to Country Manager. We spent the golden years up to 2014/15 with oil prices from $17USD to $160USD (July 2008). At $17/Bbl we were still exploring in earnest and subsequently starting to slowly build rigs to go deeper. Even in 2009 which should be considered a slump (by todays marketeers)  at $49/Bbl the new builds were in full swing and orders kept being given to shipyards. Feb 2016 we hit $35/Bbl and the price started to raise to where we are today touching close to $90/Bbl. From my very humble position whats changed?

We are still totally dependent on Hydrocarbons in all sectors, areas of our lives, so we haven't been exploring for oil reserves that we are now seeing that we need, one country has a spat and the price rises, markets get worried about oil production daily rates then we start getting scared we may need to reach into those strategic EMERGENCY reserves. Trump complaining about OPEC and their ability to control the price and in the same breathe will start sanctions on Iran which will send the price well close to $100/Bbl or higher, this even in my uneducated opinion is obvious.

Higher oil prices should make the Oil Majors happy but we see that they are also complaining that it wont be good for business, higher oil prices should mean cheaper fuel at the pump,Correct?

As its tied to the USD this means higher oil prices for countries who have to import oil. Brasil for instance should be self sustainable but they export oil at a favourable profit then have to import it back and a higher cost, which means inflated prices at the pump.

So we are seeing now some movement in exploration, am I not seeing something but if we have been relying on fields in Production for the past four years to keep us going we are kidding ourselves that we don't need to start exploring or appraising sooner rather than later. With current Geo-Politics we are heading for another Petroleum War or War in general.

$100/Bbl is not a possibility but a reality that is just around the corner. (Even I can see that)

So my question what is the End Game, can someone answer this with solid commitment ????

Excuse my lack of Market knowledge, just looking at it from an Oil field hands view.

[NAPHTA + 33]

The end of the Endgame is called the Antarctic and it's not black in colour, it's blue! As blue as deep cold water.

[James Regan + 1,776]

18 minutes ago, NAPHTA said:

The end of the Endgame is called the Antarctic and it's not black in colour, it's blue! As blue as deep cold water.

Naphta thanks for the reply,  currently trying to decipher it, but at least you replied

Edited October 7, 2018 by James Regan
spelling error

[NAPHTA + 33]

As a new member, that is part of the etiquette.

I meant simps that those giant icy poles are melting, becoming part of the ocean, salt water. Unambiguously and definitely an endgame worth its name. 

Otherwise, there is no endgame.