Russia's Population Crisis

[Ron Wagner + 702]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRfEqzKx3HY

Russia's Population Crisis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Meredith Poor + 894]

In the IT sector, we use the term 'surface area' to measure exposure risk. We reduce 'surface area' by limiting the number of ports that are hosting 'listeners' and limit the inputs to certain IP addresses (or IP address ranges) and authorized users.

When discussing Russia, 'surface area' has to do with the number or actual or potentially hostile actors around its borders. Moving from northeast clockwise, this is the US, Japan, North Korea, China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Poland (re Kaliningrad), Lithuania (re Kaliningrad), Latvia, Estonia, Finland, and Norway. If one adds the 'Baltic Chokepoint' countries Sweden, Germany, Denmark, and possibly Norway are added. Turkey forms the Black Sea chokepoint and Iceland, Greenland/Denmark, and Canada contribute to the Arctic chokepoint. If the US defense budget is roughly $800 billion per year, and Russia has 2.5x the 'surface area' of the US, then Russia's defense budget alone would be $2 trillion if it were 'equivalent' in capacity per square mile. Russian GDP is about $1.8 trillion.

This is one way of understanding the absurdity of Russia's behavior on the world stage. Russia is in the process of purging whatever defense assets it has in a war with a neighbor who is just large enough and motivated enough to resist. That neighbor is receiving massive overt and most likely covert support from much of Europe, the US, Canada, and elsewhere, which suggests a fight of 140 million (Russia) vs 35 million (Ukraine), 500 million (the EU/UK), 340 million (US), 40 million (Canada), 26 million (Australia), etc. One might attempt to add the populations of China, North Korea, and Iran to Russia's, although a fairer comparison is the economic clout of the respective belligerents. In that respect the US GDP is roughly 15x that of Russia's alone, and well above the combined GDP of Russia and China.

Putin could decide that losing 500,000 young men in deaths or crippling injuries is 'acceptable' in order to 'adopt' a 15 million more from the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine. However, the Russian military was already hopelessly overextended, and the ruin in terms of trained specialists, high-technology equipment, senior military leadership, and diverted technical expertise will leave Russia cripplingly exposed even if it 'wins'. All of the lost fighter planes, helicopters, tanks, landing ships, and so forth have to be replaced. This has to be replaced 'swimming upstream' against western technological sanctions. Whatever is spent on defense is not spent on the social services required to support an aging population, or to provide health care, education, and housing to children and young couples.

Demographic problems elsewhere (Poland's fertility rate is 1.2) suggests that young, productive Russians have better opportunities in other countries that are having similar demographic problems. Dividing roughly 150 million Russians by 75 year life expectancy suggests that Russian needs to have 2 million babies per year to maintain a stable population. If the current number of births is 1.4 million, then 1.4 million people will be entering the workforce in 18 to 20 years. If the population of Germany is 80 million, Poland 30 million, and so forth, pretty soon the demographic shortfall in these countries is equivalent to the entire birth or emerging workforce cohort of Russia. If the 'social contract' for Russian workers is significantly worse than that of Western countries, the most talented Russians can bail. Misallocating human and financial capital in a war is pretty much the most degraded 'social contract' option available.

[Marcin2 + 725]

Russia is a different country than you think. They believe that Ukraine is part of Russia. Their military complex is very strong. They are one of the largest exporters of crude oil and natural gas. Russia will find till the end to conquer Ukraine. They will not succeed, we in the West (im from Poland) know it, but they do not. Putin has ultimate power, nobody can threat him, till he is alive. I think steady help to the Ukraine is our duty, and with this we will defend Ukraine from Russia. Russian territory gains a re very small 500 sq km since October 2023. The problem is to get to Ukraine the most modern NATO weapons. But NATO is afraid that Russia will use tactical atomic bombs just 200 k TNT. I do not believe in this scenario. US and european NATO should give Ukraine the best weapons to defend them from Russia, I have many friends in Ukraine and they try to live an normal live under Russsian rockets. Believe me Ukrainian  people are tough in majority . They stay in Ukraine to defend their loved country. Russia will not win this war, I am sure of this. I am just not sure how long the war will prolong.