Trump vs. MbS

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 10/23/2018 at 10:28 PM, Bilal Zaidi said:

i am not sure if any think tank can help Trump administration most of his decisions seems abrupt without any thought process, the US sanctions will definitely hurt US economy coz the sanctions on Iran will impact 60% oil imports of US. No matter how strong is US economy it has to face the dent when 60% of oil needs met with imports. It will impact all economic factors.

Where do you get your numbers?

Iran is not even on this list:

U.S. Imports by Country of Origin

And.......

How much oil consumed by the United States comes from foreign countries?

That last one is compiled from 2017 data and the U.S. imports less and exports more now.

[Bilal Zaidi + 13]

20 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Where do you get your numbers?

Iran is not even on this list:

U.S. Imports by Country of Origin

And.......

How much oil consumed by the United States comes from foreign countries?

That last one is compiled from 2017 data and the U.S. imports less and exports more now.

I think i did not explained it correctly i tried to explain the global market will be reduced by Iran oil which has almost 3 million barrels per day  second thing was US meet its oil requirement with 40% local production and imports 60% if 3 mbpd production excluded than the US oil imports will be impacted more than any other country with the oil price increase, i hope it clarifies.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 minutes ago, Bilal Zaidi said:

I think i did not explained it correctly i tried to explain the global market will be reduced by Iran oil which has almost 3 million barrels per day  second thing was US meet its oil requirement with 40% local production and imports 60% if 3 mbpd production excluded than the US oil imports will be impacted more than any other country with the oil price increase, i hope it clarifies.

Hi Bilal.  There is a lot of discussion as to whether or not the Iranian oil will be cut off completely, 50%, 25% or none really at all.  Lots of factors at play there.  Then there is the decreasing worldwide demand for oil at this time due to economic conditions, which means that Iranian oil may not even be needed.  Then there is the increase in Saudi, Russian and U.S. production.  Put together, the net result should most likely be a falling price of oil.

The second link I provided says:

In 2017, U.S. net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum from foreign countries were equal to about 19% of U.S. petroleum consumption.¹ This was the lowest percentage since 1967.

So, I don't know where you get 40% local production and 60% imports, especially since the production of oil in the U.S. is up considerably in 2018 making the U.S. a net exporter.

Please have another look.  Maybe we are still comparing different things.

[Bilal Zaidi + 13]

35 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Hi Bilal.  There is a lot of discussion as to whether or not the Iranian oil will be cut off completely, 50%, 25% or none really at all.  Lots of factors at play there.  Then there is the decreasing worldwide demand for oil at this time due to economic conditions, which means that Iranian oil may not even be needed.  Then there is the increase in Saudi, Russian and U.S. production.  Put together, the net result should most likely be a falling price of oil.

The second link I provided says:

In 2017, U.S. net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum from foreign countries were equal to about 19% of U.S. petroleum consumption.¹ This was the lowest percentage since 1967.

So, I don't know where you get 40% local production and 60% imports, especially since the production of oil in the U.S. is up considerably in 2018 making the U.S. a net exporter.

Please have another look.  Maybe we are still comparing different things.

Yes i am sorry it is an old figure in 2017 the net imports (imports-exports) its 19% of total consumption. 

[Bilal Zaidi + 13]

Hi Dan, well I did think about the Iran oil need since KSA has shown inclination to enhance its production at a short notice, I am still vary b'coz 3 mmbpd is big quantity. Further Trump's decisions come as a surprise and seems erratic so I still feel after midterm elections or after christmas the sanctions will come. So after christmas or at new year the oil price will impact price also KSA on today on thursday KSA is quoted as “We are of the view that the market in the fourth quarter could be shifting towards an oversupply situation as evidenced by rising inventories over the past few weeks,” said Saudi OPEC governor Adeeb Al-Aama. “So we want to be watchful not to over-correct and cause a substantial inventory build,” Al-Aama, who heads a joint OPEC and non-OPEC committee which monitors compliance and market fundamentals, said after a recent meeting of the panel, known as the JTC, in Vienna.

I am keeping my fingers crossed.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

8 minutes ago, Bilal Zaidi said:

Hi Dan, well I did think about the Iran oil need since KSA has shown inclination to enhance its production at a short notice, I am still vary b'coz 3 mmbpd is big quantity. Further Trump's decisions come as a surprise and seems erratic so I still feel after midterm elections or after christmas the sanctions will come. So after christmas or at new year the oil price will impact price also KSA on today on thursday KSA is quoted as “We are of the view that the market in the fourth quarter could be shifting towards an oversupply situation as evidenced by rising inventories over the past few weeks,” said Saudi OPEC governor Adeeb Al-Aama. “So we want to be watchful not to over-correct and cause a substantial inventory build,” Al-Aama, who heads a joint OPEC and non-OPEC committee which monitors compliance and market fundamentals, said after a recent meeting of the panel, known as the JTC, in Vienna.

I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Hi Bilal.  The sanctions will come on November 4th.  Of that there is no question.  I invite you to read the post below and all of the comments (about 3 pages) to find out some of the thoughts of readers, experts and media about how much oil could get to market from Iran, even with the sanctions activated.

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 minutes ago, Bilal Zaidi said:

“We are of the view that the market in the fourth quarter could be shifting towards an oversupply situation as evidenced by rising inventories over the past few weeks,” said Saudi OPEC governor Adeeb Al-Aama. “So we want to be watchful not to over-correct and cause a substantial inventory build,” Al-Aama, who heads a joint OPEC and non-OPEC committee which monitors compliance and market fundamentals, said after a recent meeting of the panel, known as the JTC, in Vienna.

This statement is in response to falling worldwide demand.  This would indicate that supply is more than enough, even IF 100% of Iran oil did not make it to the market.

[Nightmare JayHawk + 1]

On October 18, 2018 at 5:25 AM, Epic said:

There are too many unusual circumstances behind this event for it to make any sense based upon the news articles released.  For instance, Khashoggi lived in the USA.  Why did he not go to the consulate in America to pick up his papers?  He had five to choose from in America.  Why go to Turkey instead?  Last time I checked, Turkey was a bad actor who allies itself with Iran.  And last time I checked, Iran and MbS do not get along.  Also, last time I checked, MbS put a bunch of his fellow princes behind bars.  I have a feeling that those princes wouldn't mind a little revenge for that one.  Moreover, why does Turkey luckily have the recording to prove it all, and why were they holding out on the recording until the last minute?  Complicit, maybe?  To me, this looks more like MbS being framed by his enemies than MbS acting like a dictator who silences journalists.  Also, why Khashoggi?  Does this really have to do with this articles on Saudi Arabia, or does it have to do with his contacts who had connections with 9/11?  If I had to guess, I'd say the Saudi team of assassins that were sent to eliminate Khashoggi were not sent by MbS, but rather, they were sent by his many enemies to frame MbS while also conveniently silencing Khashoggi.  After all, who had more motive to kill him?  MbS or the 9/11 participants who would like to get their country back from MbS?  I'd say the latter...by a lot.  And if that is the case, then this whole thing will blow over without having any long term effect on oil prices.  The lira might fall, however, when the retaliatory sanctions hit, and a few princely heads may roll when MbS uncovers their plot.  

I don't understand this logic. Why go through mental gymnastics such as this. MBS's initial silence was and is telling, there is no way on this non-flat earth that such a mission was carried out in a embassy of a hostile power without the knowledge and advance approval of the crown prince. There is no way the consular general would still have his job and have his head not take from him if this were the case and he did not report this. Al-Qathani would also find himself missing his head by now and MBS's reaction would be more vociferous. Do not forget that the royal family does not tolerate dissent and typically deals with it swiftly. I know some here may have ties to MBS but please we need to think like rational people here. A leader who kidnaps a foreign diplomat, detains his own citizens and extorts money from them isn't one i would give the benefit of the doubt. This dude has serious anger management issues and the facts of this case speak for themselves.

Edited October 25, 2018 by Nightmare JayHawk

[Keven Tan + 85]

Osama 

you have been disappeared! lol I am sure that you have been making huge profit with the current down trend. It’s too early to hide yourself at your vocation villa. 

[Osama + 248]

2 hours ago, Keven Tan said:

Osama 

you have been disappeared! lol I am sure that you have been making huge profit with the current down trend. It’s too early to hide yourself at your vocation villa. 

haha!!! Hello! Actually quite the opposite ..... I have not been trading lately. 

 

 

So we saw oil touched $65 yesterday. 

API has reported a crude build up of 5.7 million barrels...but the effect is yet to be reflected in prices....

I don't know why it didn't go further down....it should have been...but you know...traders and speculations...!