New Oil Order- Diplomacy, Geopolitics and Economics

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

5 minutes ago, NatGasDude said:

They make some good points, but I feel that the Saudis are being hyper confident in that interview.

Bingo.  Arrogant might be a more suitable word.  This was in December 2014, before the real oil price bloodbath.

[Osama + 248]

17 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

See attached interview from 2014.

Excerpt:

Will Saudi Arabia Not Cut Production If The Russians Do Not Cut?

First of all, why did we decide not to reduce production? I will tell you why. Is it reasonable for a highly efficient producer to reduce output, while the producer of poor efficiency continues to produce? 

That is crooked logic. If I reduce, what happens to my market share? The price will go up and the Russians, the Brazilians, US shale oil producers will take my share.

So This Is A Policy To Defend Market Share?

It is also a defense of high efficiency producing countries, not only of market share. We want to tell the world that high efficiency producing counties are the ones that deserve market share. That is the operative principle in all capitalist countries.

MEES Interview with Ali Naimi in Dec 2014.pdf

What do you think....will the 11th November meeting of OPEC entail? A statement that we will cut production in December.....that is all?

[Osama + 248]

So we all missed Trump's rodomontade...didn't we?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/07/trump-on-falling-oil-prices-thats-because-of-me.html

 

Trump says he is behind the recent price decline! 

[Keven Tan + 85]

Why I remember Jim Cramer said something like “oil will be a triple digits....” just back not too long ago??????

Am i aging too fast, so I can’t remember? 

Cramer predicts oil prices as low as $40 a barrel as US crude falls into bear market

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/11/08/cramer-predicts-oil-prices-as-low-as-40-a-barrel-as-us-crude-falls-into-bear-market.html

 

 

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, Keven Tan said:

Why I remember Jim Cramer said something like “oil will be a triple digits....” just back not too long ago??????

Am i aging too fast, so I can’t remember? 

Cramer predicts oil prices as low as $40 a barrel as US crude falls into bear market

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/11/08/cramer-predicts-oil-prices-as-low-as-40-a-barrel-as-us-crude-falls-into-bear-market.html

 

 

When Cramer says something is going to happen, the opposite usually does. This is how I know we won't fall much further!

Cramer just HAAAADDDD to say something lol

Edit: oh and he totally did say oil was going to $100 a barrel (he was one of the last ones too lol)

Edited November 8, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-opecs-anchor-ponders-a-future-without-the-cartel-1541703893

A world with no OPEC? Anyone want to discuss the implications it would have on the global oil market?

More importantly, how would it affect the petrodollar? 

I'm almost wondering if it will be a "every man for himself!" scenerio where the strong and the capable flood the markets and crush the lower producers. The problem therw is you have the battle of the giants (US, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia) whow would be fighting amongst themselves for market share.

Talk about a shit show lol

Edited November 9, 2018 by ATK

[Osama + 248]

6 hours ago, Keven Tan said:

Why I remember Jim Cramer said something like “oil will be a triple digits....” just back not too long ago??????

Am i aging too fast, so I can’t remember? 

Cramer predicts oil prices as low as $40 a barrel as US crude falls into bear market

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/11/08/cramer-predicts-oil-prices-as-low-as-40-a-barrel-as-us-crude-falls-into-bear-market.html

 

 

Well.....change of hearts I think

 

You can see oil touched 60s. Even when it was at $76....I remained a bear like many others here

[Osama + 248]

5 hours ago, ATK said:

When Cramer says something is going to happen, the opposite usually does. This is how I know we won't fall much further!

Cramer just HAAAADDDD to say something lol

Edit: oh and he totally did say oil was going to $100 a barrel (he was one of the last ones too lol)

This particular oracle likes riddles..likes to talk kn contradictions

[ATK + 355]

7 minutes ago, Osama said:

Well.....change of hearts I think

 

You can see oil touched 60s. Even when it was at $76....I remained a bear like many others here

Bear gang 🐻

[Osama + 248]

@ATK, @Dan Warnick, @Tom Kirkman

Oil just fall under $70!

 

As I noted in this article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4217736-next-oil-prices

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

16 minutes ago, Osama said:

@ATK, @Dan Warnick, @Tom Kirkman

Oil just fall under $70!

 

As I noted in this article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4217736-next-oil-prices

Osama, I'm not a fan of Seeking Alpha, mostly due to its previous run-ins with the SEC. 

And you need to sign in to read the full article.  Sorry, I'm not signing up for Seeking Alpha.  Best of luck with your article.

[Osama + 248]

5 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Osama, I'm not a fan of Seeking Alpha, mostly due to its previous run-ins with the SEC. 

And you need to sign in to read the full article.  Sorry, I'm not signing up for Seeking Alpha.  Best of luck with your article.

No problem at all. I never knew about the run-ins with SEC!! 

Article apart.....do you expect that this presents a dilemma for KSA....

Prices goes up...Trump grumbles...goes too down..how do we balance the budget (KSA). 

 

The bigger picture analysis behooves us to consider this question.....what about KSA and its alliance with US. Is OPEC near its end? There is a conflict of interest between KSA being a de facto leader of OPEC and its alliance with US. You agree?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

13 minutes ago, Osama said:

The bigger picture analysis behooves us to consider this question.....what about KSA and its alliance with US. Is OPEC near its end? There is a conflict of interest between KSA being a de facto leader of OPEC and its alliance with US. You agree?

KSA can't figure out what the heck it wants to do.  Knives are out for MbS, and he is fighting back. 

The latest PR stunt by KSA is breathtakingly dumbfounding.

And the ongoing religious and cultural rivalries within OPEC don't seem to be muzzled any more by a strong leader in OPEC.  Love him or hate him, al-Naimi pretty much kept things in line within OPEC during his time. 

KSA / OPEC / MbS all seem pretty wishy washy, uncertain and flailing around these days.  Maybe Putin + Russia can knock some backbone and decisive planning back into OPEC next year.

In the runup to the U.S. midterm elections, I recall reading that OPEC would probably comply with Trump's demands, but all bets would be off after the midterm elections were over.  That seems to indeed be the case.

[Osama + 248]

Re the PR STUNT---Prepostrous!!!!

Coming back to oil, I utterly agree with everything thay you said.

I think KSA/OPEC will face another difficult phase as I don't see their production cuts will increase the prices that easily.

Also, US' production is estimated to reach 12 mbpd. Are we re-entering the times when US used to be the biggest oil prodcuer in the world---Before WW2 if my memory serves me well?---

The rise of US, anew, as a dominant oil producer is expected to effect the geopolitical and diplomatic dimensions of its ally in the ME as well.

Lower for longer----I see it like this.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Osama
update

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

22 hours ago, Osama said:

So we all missed Trump's rodomontade...didn't we?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/07/trump-on-falling-oil-prices-thats-because-of-me.html

 

Trump says he is behind the recent price decline! 

Hi is part of it.  Do a simple search:

  https://www.google.com/search?q=trump+tells+saudi+arabia+to+cut+the+price+of+oil&pws=0&gl=us&gws_rd=cr

Lest we all forget what he was doing just a few months ago which has, ultimately, led to the lower price of oil.  Right around mid term election time.  I don't know, from where I'm sitting, if the price at the pump went down in the U.S. to be helpful.  Kind of think it must not have because it figures that we would have heard Trump trumpeting if it had.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

KSA / OPEC / MbS all seem pretty wishy washy, uncertain and flailing around these days.  Maybe Putin + Russia can knock some backbone and decisive planning back into OPEC next year.

In the runup to the U.S. midterm elections, I recall reading that OPEC would probably comply with Trump's demands, but all bets would be off after the midterm elections were over.  That seems to indeed be the case.

I think Putin has his own designs on what he would like to see the KSA end up as, and hence what he would like to see OPEC end up as.  Personally, I believe Putin wants to break up OPEC and dominate/control KSA/Salman.

Trump wanted prices down for the midterms and put a lot of pressure on KSA to make that happen.  Given the lag time between physical actions and results in the oil business, his pressure wasn't too far off the mark.  Although I don't know if it translated to pump prices in the U.S. which was his goal.  Midterms are over, and the deck is clear.  Next!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Concerning the drop in oil prices right at the mid terms, I had it pointed out to me (too late) that Trump had more to do with it than we might have realized (correct);  Granting last minute Iranian Sanctions waivers to Iran's 8 largest customers.  If it had been a snake.......

Now the opposite is the next factor that could see oil rise: the waivers will expire and the drive to dry up supply from Iran starts again, now.

[Osama + 248]

Few things to remember: Waivers are temporary so saying that we need to bring production back to October levels i.e. reduce it by 1 million barrels is not a substantial stance. Things can turn sore and OPEC can anew the wrath of Trump.

Oil prices rise---https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/12/oil-prices-saudi-arabia-production-opec-khalid-al-falih

"Several analysts said oil prices were likely to turn bullish again."

@Tom Kirkman, @Dan Warnick, @ATK, @Catch22---tough times for KSA ahead as we have said already. I see a cartel getting exhausted by the act of rebalancing the markets!

Edited November 12, 2018 by Osama
Add detail

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

9 hours ago, Osama said:

tough times for KSA ahead as we have said already. I see a cartel getting exhausted by the act of rebalancing the markets!

I mentioned a couple weeks ago that I expect oil markets to go bonkers for the the week of the U.S. midterm elections / sanctions on Iranian oil / MbS + KSA soap opera, and probably continued aftershocks at least into next month.

Meanwhile, grab some popcorn, get comfy and enjoy the show.  Hopefully the politics + oil soap opera drama will settle down a bit in December.

Come December 31st, I'm still hoping for $70 Brent and $65 WTI.

[Osama + 248]

21 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I mentioned a couple weeks ago that I expect oil markets to go bonkers for the the week of the U.S. midterm elections / sanctions on Iranian oil / MbS + KSA soap opera, and probably continued aftershocks at least into next month.

Meanwhile, grab some popcorn, get comfy and enjoy the show.  Hopefully the politics + oil soap opera drama will settle down a bit in December.

Come December 31st, I'm still hoping for $70 Brent and $65 WTI.

Trump tweet's again....gentlemen we have a new way of dealing with things: Tweet 'em!

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

8 hours ago, Osama said:

Trump tweet's again....gentlemen we have a new way of dealing with things: Tweet 'em!

 

No matter what he tweets, I like getting news directly from the President and not filtered by any other source.  And if he wants to influence markets he has a plethora of ways to do that, but again I would rather see it from his own account than having to guess what he MIGHT have said or not said (or done or not done) from the media filtration device.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 hours ago, Osama said:

Trump tweet's again....gentlemen we have a new way of dealing with things: Tweet 'em!

 

Perhaps a more relevant point:  At this point, Trump is just jumping out there to take some credit for what is already happening.  He's does this on many things.  Example:  The Fed and interest rates.  If he has people telling him the market is at all time highs, he takes credit for it.  If they tell him that a crash is coming, he wants to know what he can blame it on.  If you work for the President of the United States and he asks this question, you might point out that the Fed raising interest rates is historically a precursor to a falling market.  Tweet, tweet!

Scapegoat secured!

( @Tom Kirkman )

[William Edwards + 708]

On 11/1/2018 at 12:03 AM, Osama said:

Hello All!

While the forum has so many intelligent and experienced contributors; I had this idea of why not organize the thoughts and comments and discussions we carry out in a more accessible way?

The idea is to create two threads. One will focus on long term changes, bigger picture analysis, discussions, mostly but not completely related to geopolitics, demand/supply scenarios, trade war, agreements etcetera. The other one will focus purely on trading.

Yes, we cannot separate news from trading as both are related but the idea is to sort of sift the information so that learners like me can log in any time and learn about technical/trading from one thread and bigger picture analysis from another without getting lost in the sea of data.

@Tom Kirkman, @William Edwards, @Jan van der Meer, @Jan van Eck----your help and contribution will be required and much appreciated.

The big picture thread will remain small. Fundamental factors do not change rapidly -- it is only our faulty perception that fluctuates.

[Osama + 248]

On 11/13/2018 at 5:01 PM, Dan Warnick said:

Perhaps a more relevant point:  At this point, Trump is just jumping out there to take some credit for what is already happening.  He's does this on many things.  Example:  The Fed and interest rates.  If he has people telling him the market is at all time highs, he takes credit for it.  If they tell him that a crash is coming, he wants to know what he can blame it on.  If you work for the President of the United States and he asks this question, you might point out that the Fed raising interest rates is historically a precursor to a falling market.  Tweet, tweet!

Scapegoat secured!

( @Tom Kirkman )

Dan... I agree. 

In a similar vein The Economist just published an article on oil--the analysis is just ok---but it is the name: TRUMPSY TURVY.