Could EVs Become Cheaper than ICE Cars by 2023?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

12 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Yes, I was referring specifically to a nuclear detonation. I think the probability of that in the USA is very low.

Not zero, but low.  If someone were to do it, your grid would be history.  The more likely event is some rolling blackout caused by grid failure, we have had a number of those,  specifically in the summer with too much power for the cables to handle, cables failing, and then power surging with no place to go, and components destructing.  

So you think it is not cost effective or feasible to take measures that would rebuild the distribution systems to make them capable of being localized and semi independent if needed. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

4 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

So you think it is not cost effective or feasible to take measures that would rebuild the distribution systems to make them capable of being localized and semi independent if needed. 

I wouldn't go that far, but I don't see anyone wanting to foot the bill for a low-probability event.  Possibly the Feds, but right now their priorities seem to be putting the army out there to beat back some impoverished Guatemalans.  Until the political dimensions are sorted out, the engineering ones will be back-burner.  Nature of the Washington beast, unfortunately.

[DA? + 301]

7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

You want to be careful giving upvotes to DA?  He may not be who he seems.  The claim is he is "Jacob Hawtin."  There is no evidence any such person really exists. 

Ouch, actually plenty of evidence that I exist. Like my son, although he does look very much like our old milk man.

[DA? + 301]

On ‎11‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 3:48 AM, ronwagn said:

IMHO batteries in cold weather are not a minor problem. 

Neither are diesels that good in cold weather, even using winter diesel it still freezes.

[DA? + 301]

5 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Fortunately, the possibility of an EMP is very, very low.  Just about zero

A solar event can wreck it.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Better make that "Downstate Illinois."   

Just another wry comment from the Dutchman.

Nope.  I lived in the suburbs or Chicago for a few years and it was much the same there.  One thing that surprised me: people in the suburbs of Chicago were even more active in their local governments than I had seen elsewhere.  With good reason though: the Democrats have driven Illinois into a debt situation that is untenable.  I think you brought the fact to my attention that the state governments have borrowed heavily from Wall Street to finance debt and expenses, with no real hope of paying it back.  That's Illinois.  And to make matters worse, they just voted in a Democrat billionaire as governor!  The state legislature is and has been controlled by a very powerful man named Mike Madigan forever, and he seems to control the elections to a large degree.  Don't ask me how (seriously).  The last Republican governor fought hard to correct the financial irresponsibilities of the past, but the Democrats just turned the story around and made him the bad guy. 

Anyway, the folks all around Chicago are just your good, educated, hard working and kind mid-westerners that you will find throughout the region.

[DA? + 301]

10 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Nope.  I lived in the suburbs or Chicago for a few years and it was much the same there.  One thing that surprised me: people in the suburbs of Chicago were even more active in their local governments than I had seen elsewhere.  With good reason though: the Democrats have driven Illinois into a debt situation that is untenable.  I think you brought the fact to my attention that the state governments have borrowed heavily from Wall Street to finance debt and expenses, with no real hope of paying it back.  That's Illinois.  And to make matters worse, they just voted in a Democrat billionaire as governor!  The state legislature is and has been controlled by a very powerful man named Mike Madigan forever, and he seems to control the elections to a large degree.  Don't ask me how (seriously).  The last Republican governor fought hard to correct the financial irresponsibilities of the past, but the Democrats just turned the story around and made him the bad guy. 

Anyway, the folks all around Chicago are just your good, educated, hard working and kind mid-westerners that you will find throughout the region.

Frankly neither side of politics in most countries seem to be very good about balancing the books. Whats the USA's Federal debt this year $1.3 trillion and have had until very recently full power to do as they please.

[Brian Flippo + 4]

On 11/6/2018 at 4:56 AM, Guillaume Albasini said:

And there is also another aspect. EV's have less parts than ICE's and are easier and cheaper to built.

To add to this, fewer parts and simpler designs require exponentially less maintenance and repairs.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Brian Flippo said:

To add to this, fewer parts and simpler designs require exponentially less maintenance and repairs.

True in most cases, that's for sure, but somebody said recently that the jury's still out on the reality.  Time will tell, but I am very hopeful and even pretty confident that Tesla and others are getting it right.

Question for Tesla fans:  There was a discussion on here recently about Tesla using a multi-part frame instead of, I believe, a "stamped" one-piece frame.  Is that true?  If so, do they have plans to go with a one piece frame in the near future?

[DA? + 301]

3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Question for Tesla fans:  There was a discussion on here recently about Tesla using a multi-part frame instead of, I believe, a "stamped" one-piece frame.  Is that true?  If so, do they have plans to go with a one piece frame in the near future?

It's hard to know they keep updating the cars as they find better ways of doing it. The one taken apart by Monroe (if that's how you spell his name) was a very early build, if it has become cheaper or significantly better in any way then they will when it is best to.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

55 minutes ago, DA? said:

It's hard to know they keep updating the cars as they find better ways of doing it. The one taken apart by Monroe (if that's how you spell his name) was a very early build, if it has become cheaper or significantly better in any way then they will when it is best to.

No offence, but I could have given myself that answer.  I was hoping that someone who knows the answer could answer the question.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 hours ago, Brian Flippo said:

To add to this, fewer parts and simpler designs require exponentially less maintenance and repairs.

The lowest priced EV is $30,000 plus and has rebates that we all pay for. The lowest priced ICE auto is $13,000  and gets 40 mpg. 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

58 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

The lowest priced EV is $30,000 plus and has rebates that we all pay for. The lowest priced ICE auto is $13,000  and gets 40 mpg. 

In China you can already find an EV for $5000

https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/China-cheap-popular-high-speed-electric_60701447298.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.normalList.23.1772562ffBcOPD

And for $10'000 you can even have a Porsche 356 inspired EV (they say they can supply it to US or Europe).

https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/2017-China-Cheap-Electric-Car-For_60704968998.html?spm=a2700.galleryofferlist.normalList.168.2c54562fXdaXFe

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/16/2018 at 12:47 AM, markslawson said:

While we're on the subject. You realise that the "statistically significant" effects in the first paper, are for concentrations of what 1000 ppm? Or was it 10,000 ppm. Go and look at the Mauna Loa trends. Even 1000 PPM won't be reached for at least a century if that, even counting an evident acceleration in the CO2 levels post-war, whatever the acceleration may be due to. In other words the research is a complete waste of time. Perhaps even the "statistically significant" part will vanish when someone repeats the experiment, as often happens. I'm not the one using straw man arguments here. Leave it with you.

More straw mark - you could build an army of strawmen😄

The research was about indoor air quality conditions where CO2 levels routinely exceed 1000ppm and more so it was quite relevant as regards cognitive skills as most study, research and indeed work is carried out in indoor environments. The research itself had nothing to do with atmospheric build up of CO2.

On the issue of atmospheric accumulation of CO2 once the Oceans become saturated atmospheric levels will rocket. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/21/2018 at 11:37 PM, ronwagn said:

The lowest priced EV is $30,000 plus and has rebates that we all pay for. The lowest priced ICE auto is $13,000  and gets 40 mpg. 

The primary cause of that are battery costs. Looks whats happening to battery costs. The cost difference between EV's and ICE cars narrows each year. 

Another factor is that the market for EV's is predominantly middle class greenies so these cars will have many additional features that appeal to middle class people. Strip out all the added extras and that gap will narrow further. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/20/2018 at 6:44 AM, Dan Warnick said:

Didn't you get the memo?  People that wish to buy a Tesla should have heated garages, powered by solar and Tesla storage batteries.  They should also have at least one on-site maintenance person to monitor systems overnight when extreme Fall to Spring weather may be present.  Of course, these trivial issues should have already be standard for most Tesla buyers.

Okay, I'm being facetious, but you are right.  Batteries and cold weather pose challenges whether we are talking about cars or airplanes or anything else.

I know a couple of people who work for British Antarctic Survey. You should advise them about issues with batteries as they use battery powered devices all the time 😉

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 minutes ago, NickW said:

I know a couple of people who work for British Antarctic Survey. You should advise them about issues with batteries as they use battery powered devices all the time 😉

What are you saying?  That the batteries they use do not pose challenges?  I would think they could tell you that challenge is an apt description of their day to day routine in maintaining, charging and using their batteries.  I believe they use a lot of solar chargers and power packs there.  Is that right?  All I'm saying is even the low temperature expedition batteries require special care in order to be ready to go on demand.  Are you saying that is incorrect?  Plugging in and heating batteries to make them usable would seem to fit the category of a challenge vs. turn the key and they work.

https://twitter.com/antarcticreport/status/1026067080414543872

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 hours ago, NickW said:

The primary cause of that are battery costs. Looks whats happening to battery costs. The cost difference between EV's and ICE cars narrows each year. 

Another factor is that the market for EV's is predominantly middle class greenies so these cars will have many additional features that appeal to middle class people. Strip out all the added extras and that gap will narrow further. 

We will see but I will have to have the range and ease of fueling also. That is available with CNG. Natural gas will make most of the electricity regardless. 

[Brian Flippo + 4]

On 11/21/2018 at 3:37 PM, ronwagn said:

The lowest priced EV is $30,000 plus and has rebates that we all pay for. The lowest priced ICE auto is $13,000  and gets 40 mpg. 

...and horses were cheaper than automobiles too, until they weren't. The cost to produce and distribute an electric vehicle is projected to be equivalent to the ICE by 2025.  Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Study.

Edited November 25, 2018 by Brian Flippo

[ronwagn + 6,290]

That is only a projection with very little to back it up. I doubt that the charging infrastructure will even be sufficient by then for long range travel. There will be a limited market, and EVs will not be a serious competitor with ICE IMHO. We will see. Six years starts January first, 2019. Good luck, I would actually like electric to succeed. I am a natural gas vehicle fan but natural gas will be producing most of the electricity for electric vehicles. 

Solid state batteries might hasten the adoption of EVs if the price is right. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Are-Solid-State-Batteries-The-Key-To-Mass-EV-Adoption.html

Edited November 25, 2018 by ronwagn
added reference

[DA? + 301]

3 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I doubt that the charging infrastructure will even be sufficient by then for long range travel

https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/supercharger?redirect=no

And they are continuing to install them at a very fast rate.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 hours ago, Brian Flippo said:

...and horses were cheaper than automobiles too, until they weren't. The cost to produce and distribute an electric vehicle is projected to be equivalent to the ICE by 2025.  Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Study.

I think everyone on here is simply saying: when that happens, and the consumer reports and overwhelming majority of reviews are good, we will each give them a try.  Just don't take my ICE away for awhile, just like they didn't make them kill their horses (although I'm sure they restricted their use downtown, for example).  If I need to register my ICE as an antique, that's ok, just let me keep it and reminisce.  

That will be great shift to EV and we'll all be better for it.  In my mind there is nothing about a Tesla that is high tech or ground breaking.  I don't mean that in a bad way; I consider it confirmation that they will get there, and sooner rather than later.  Bring it on and let's get on with it.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

48 minutes ago, DA? said:

https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/supercharger?redirect=no

And they are continuing to install them at a very fast rate.

This fact, yes fact, surprised me when I looked into it a few months back.  There is a very real possibility with this infrastructure planning already moving forward.  And it is moving forward in a big and convincing way.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 11/24/2018 at 5:03 PM, Dan Warnick said:

What are you saying?  That the batteries they use do not pose challenges?  I would think they could tell you that challenge is an apt description of their day to day routine in maintaining, charging and using their batteries.  I believe they use a lot of solar chargers and power packs there.  Is that right?  All I'm saying is even the low temperature expedition batteries require special care in order to be ready to go on demand.  Are you saying that is incorrect?  Plugging in and heating batteries to make them usable would seem to fit the category of a challenge vs. turn the key and they work.

https://twitter.com/antarcticreport/status/1026067080414543872

 

The problems with cold climate are manageable. But I agree that ICE vehicles are more appropriate for such an extreme climate. 

They are increasingly using wind and the solar resources are very good in the summer (24 hours a day) 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

14 hours ago, DA? said:

https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/supercharger?redirect=no

And they are continuing to install them at a very fast rate.

We drive around California a lot and haven't seen any. We saw the Tesla plant in our travels. The only ones I  have seen were in Yellowstone National Park. They had about 12 but no electric cars. I have also seen a couple at a raft and kayak facility on the Pigeon River in eastern Tennessee. Not EVs though. The Tesla map shows a lot of dots but there are probably a lot of Teslas per dot. The more the better. I hope Tesla makes it. Do they allow other EVs to use their chargers?