WTI Heading for $60

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

9 minutes ago, ATK said:

Oh look a pump before the EIA report, surely the bulls are ready to take charge and have nothing to worry about lol

Trap trap trap..  50 dollar on the horizon 

[ATK + 355]

21 minutes ago, Oilfuturestrader said:

Trap trap trap..  50 dollar on the horizon 

This happens every week, bulls pump it just before the report followed by a crash to lower lows. If we see another big build, I don't see what bulls have to work with.

I bet it will touch 57.15- 57.25 before the sell off

[fOILed + 9]

10.27 mil build... Look out below!!

largest since January

Edited November 15, 2018 by fOILed

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

A 10 million build..  Holy smokes 

[ATK + 355]

Not only that but larger than expected gas build (240k) and distillates about what was expected

Laughing at bulls even trying to defend price right now

Edited November 15, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

10 million barrel build and reuters article saying Russia will avoid cuts.

Talk about bullish!

Edit: I'm having flash backs to wen we jumped to $76 after an 8 million barrel build, bulls have a death wish!

Edited November 15, 2018 by ATK

[Auson + 123]

On 11/14/2018 at 4:41 PM, William Edwards said:

Thanks for presenting this price perspective, Tom. You should probably repeat this display monthly. Eventually some observers will catch on that $50 oil is well above historical averages. Recognition of this fact will result in a new understanding, that the price trend from here is down, not up.

Again thanks for the chart but and its a big but if you take the purchasing power of $12 in say 1961 here are a few different calculations of its worth.

If you want to compare the value of a $12.00 Commodityin 1961 there are four choices. In 2017 the relative: 
real price of that commodity is $98.30
real value in consumption of that commodity is $126.00
labor value of that commodity is $115.00 (using the unskilled wage) or $149.00 (using production worker compensation)
income value of that commodity is $234.00
economic share of that commodity is $416.00

[ATK + 355]

Wow volume has been insane today even with the very little price movement we've seen

[catch22 + 244]

finally got a green daily candle close and a rising support line... looks like another possible setup for a dumping... if it breaks the rising support line a big way - down she goes again...- watch out for the little fake moves like the one you can see on the chart where it briefly takes it out. It must break it in a bigger move than that before shorting. If support holds - buyers could be gaining some conviction - but its still too early to say that as it hasnt broken the downward channel on the 4H nor the 50SMA yet, not even close, its only just just to emerge from its VERY oversold condition and up into rather oversold

Its also had 2 prior attempts at breaking 57.30. If it can push thru that there could be a bigger move up in the offing - which may just trigger the beginning of the corrective move higher. Something to watch...

 

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by catch22

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 11/15/2018 at 12:41 AM, William Edwards said:

Thanks for presenting this price perspective, Tom. You should probably repeat this display monthly. Eventually some observers will catch on that $50 oil is well above historical averages. Recognition of this fact will result in a new understanding, that the price trend from here is down, not up.

Heh heh ... shhhhhh, William, you are being logical and clear-headed again ...

I'm hoping for $70 Brent next year.  Yes, I know that is above my long-hoped-for average around $50 from 2015 to almost 2017, but I tend to think that oil companies really need to make sufficiently large profits in 2019 to plow full steam ahead in playing catch-up on long overdue new exploration, to compensate for declining oil fields. 

God only knows how much long-term damage KSA inflicted on their aging oil fields by pumping at maximum overdrive earlier this year.  Spare capacity is getting leaner these days.

[Auson + 123]

11 hours ago, catch22 said:

finally got a green daily candle close and a rising support line... looks like another possible setup for a dumping... if it breaks the rising support line a big way - down she goes again...- watch out for the little fake moves like the one you can see on the chart where it briefly takes it out. It must break it in a bigger move than that before shorting. If support holds - buyers could be gaining some conviction - but its still too early to say that as it hasnt broken the downward channel on the 4H nor the 50SMA yet, not even close, its only just just to emerge from its VERY oversold condition and up into rather oversold

Its also had 2 prior attempts at breaking 57.30. If it can push thru that there could be a bigger move up in the offing - which may just trigger the beginning of the corrective move higher. Something to watch...

 

catch22,

Well its passed $57.30 now but dropped back. Does it need to hold or is the break through enough provided its convincing enough ?

I liked the article here saying the move down was delayed policy effort before the midterms. Makes sense to me and now the Saudis are p*ssed !  

[catch22 + 244]

Indeed it is slowly creeping higher over time - still supported by the rising support trendline. Fireworks is yet to come tho - price action is still not fully firing and somewhat subdued in the EU session - wait for the US session for any big moves. If you look back thru the history of the last 2 weeks - the dumping doesnt start till later in the day from where it is today. So whilst its still creeping higher - it can still be dumped a little later erasing all the gains of the last 2 days. Im saying this because its a pattern that has repeated itself many times over the last 2 weeks.

There is a slight acceleration to the upside in the EU session as you can see.

If it doesnt get dumped later today in the final US session of the week, it could be the beginning of the corrective move back into the 60s...

Its a real PITA for me as the US session occurs from midnight till 7am my local time. So im always asleep when the fireworks happens and makes it very diffucult for me to give a live commentary of the price action as it happens... you can don some reading on price action recognition online - learn all about the candle sizes and structures and what they mean then apply the knowledge to WTI with some practical experience. This is one of the most effective means of identifying a move or break out rather than just a specific price...

 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by catch22

[john mesrobian + 1]

Oil has been oversold and see a bounce/test of $61 area, first. But, see Oil in a long term Bear Mkt and over time we shall restest the lows and break below the lows to $20 area. But, as noted this over time, there will be a lot of back and forth and bear mkt rallies which could be sharp but in the end new new lows

[Auson + 123]

2 hours ago, john mesrobian said:

Oil has been oversold and see a bounce/test of $61 area, first. But, see Oil in a long term Bear Mkt and over time we shall restest the lows and break below the lows to $20 area. But, as noted this over time, there will be a lot of back and forth and bear mkt rallies which could be sharp but in the end new new lows

john mesrobian,

Not sure why you think oils in a long term bear market. Its a finite resource which the world is hooked on. Saudis pumped to bankrupt Shale.. it didn't work so now prices should return to 'normal' whatever that means. 

At $20 area as you state there would be no exploration and hardly any oil companies willing to extract and sell at that price.  

[Brent Hamrick + 31]

On 11/7/2018 at 7:38 AM, ATK said:

EIA report showing a 5.5 million barrel crude build and a surprise 1.8 million barrel gas build. Distillates draw larger than expected at 3.4 million barrels.

Report favors bears

With that EIA report being favorable towards being bearish, why is there a shift @ www.BLM.gov  to sell new land lease rights specifically in Alaska when for previous decades its been low key production? Seems that there is a tremendous amount of activity in this region. How can Saudi Arabia keep up with demand if their LNG to the tune of 70%-75% is being consumed by their own people? The big talking heads three weeks ago stated Brent crude would be $95 a barrel. How could they get it so wrong?????

[Emmanuel.Mintah + 2]

with kurdish oil,and south korea now being able to buy from saudi Arabia.i expect oil to fall back to 40 dollars

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

 The federal government of Iraq has restarted exports of crude through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline Nov 16, paving... Even more oil available on open market from Iraq now 

[A/Plague + 50]

On 11/16/2018 at 8:17 PM, Brent Hamrick said:

 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[AMR + 6]

The Saudis Can Fix Oil Prices, But Can They Repair the Crown Prince’s Image?
http://time.com/5455485/mohammed-bin-salman-image/

 

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

Saudi Arabia is slashing shipments of crude to the United States, a move that appears calibrated to boost oil prices after a swift and punishing sell-off.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-shipments-to-us-in-likely-bid-to-boost-prices.html

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

7 hours ago, Oilfuturestrader said:

Saudi Arabia is slashing shipments of crude to the United States, a move that appears calibrated to boost oil prices after a swift and punishing sell-off.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/16/saudi-arabia-cuts-oil-shipments-to-us-in-likely-bid-to-boost-prices.html

I was just pointing this out with comments on the subject last Friday.  Seems logical.

 

[DVP + 1]

On 11/14/2018 at 1:45 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Some longer term perspective, 1861 to 2017:

while I am shopping for crystal ball on amazon right now, I cant help to wonder if this chart was adjusted for inflation, $20 IN 1900 is about 3 c-notes about right now....