Your idea of oil/gas prices next ten years

[BillKidd + 139]

What do you guys think the price of crude oil (WTI) and natural gas will be over the next ten years? A range is fine if you don't want to predict at average. Thanks.

[DA? + 301]

Brent crude (although doubt if much will be sold then) $25 ish. Although it may well no longer be traded in $. It's going to be a contacting market then, if you can't produce it dam cheap look at getting out of the game. Don't believe the IEA they never get it even in the ball mark.

[BillKidd + 139]

3 minutes ago, DA? said:

Brent crude (although doubt if much will be sold then) $25 ish. Although it may well no longer be traded in $. It's going to be a contacting market then, if you can't produce it dam cheap look at getting out of the game. Don't believe the IEA they never get it even in the ball mark.

Not interested in Brent, I am in USA. Interested in WTI. And natural gas.

If you're saying $25 average for Brent, I would assume you would think WTi would be below that?

If you are right that the average for crude oil will be in the 20s, that is going to be one helluva crash. Blood in the streets, huge erosion of value globally. In fact, couldn't a crash that severe crash the U.S. economy due the collapse of the oil biz?

[DA? + 301]

55 minutes ago, BillKidd said:

Not interested in Brent, I am in USA. Interested in WTI. And natural gas.

If you're saying $25 average for Brent, I would assume you would think WTi would be below that?

If you are right that the average for crude oil will be in the 20s, that is going to be one helluva crash. Blood in the streets, huge erosion of value globally. In fact, couldn't a crash that severe crash the U.S. economy due the collapse of the oil biz?

It looks like peak oil demand will occur far sooner than IEA or others predict. Lets face it IEA got it wrong by quite a large amount for this year. With that a market contraction occurs this will probably be a bit fuzzy as demand tends to be but the fun starts when it becomes obvious. As seen in coal share value collapses for those involved even though actual demand may not have fallen that much. And it doesn't take much over supply to depress prices, as we can see at present.

It's not just the USA that gets hammered but anyone, any company/organisation and country that depends on oil financially. Trillions of dollars of assets get written off. But we are on the edge of seeing such disruptions in many industries, think back to what happened in just three years when Apple brought out the smart phone and what happened in that industry, then think of that going on in many industries.   

Take it out 20yrs and if you can't profit from oil at less than $20 a barrel (maybe even down near $10) you are out of business.

[BillKidd + 139]

46 minutes ago, DA? said:

It looks like peak oil demand will occur far sooner than IEA or others predict. Lets face it IEA got it wrong by quite a large amount for this year. With that a market contraction occurs this will probably be a bit fuzzy as demand tends to be but the fun starts when it becomes obvious. As seen in coal share value collapses for those involved even though actual demand may not have fallen that much. And it doesn't take much over supply to depress prices, as we can see at present.

It's not just the USA that gets hammered but anyone, any company/organisation and country that depends on oil financially. Trillions of dollars of assets get written off. But we are on the edge of seeing such disruptions in many industries, think back to what happened in just three years when Apple brought out the smart phone and what happened in that industry, then think of that going on in many industries.   

Take it out 20yrs and if you can't profit from oil at less than $20 a barrel (maybe even down near $10) you are out of business.

I don't know the answer but I can't imagine the oil biz in the USA existing at $20.

Let's say shale oil wells cost $5 million on average, D&C. Just as an example. Say that oil is $20, and that after royalties, taxes and operating expenses, you get $15. Divide $5 million by $15 and you get 333,333 BO required just to break even. The average shale well probably doesn't even produce that much total EUR!

Not sure but I am doubting even stripper wells can be operated profitably at $20/BO gross.

So, if the above is true, it's byebye to the U.S. oil biz if price goes to $20.

[DA? + 301]

19 minutes ago, BillKidd said:

I don't know the answer but I can't imagine the oil biz in the USA existing at $20.

Let's say shale oil wells cost $5 million on average, D&C. Just as an example. Say that oil is $20, and that after royalties, taxes and operating expenses, you get $15. Divide $5 million by $15 and you get 333,333 BO required just to break even. The average shale well probably doesn't even produce that much total EUR!

Not sure but I am doubting even stripper wells can be operated profitably at $20/BO gross.

So, if the above is true, it's byebye to the U.S. oil biz if price goes to $20.

Seems a lot of the fracking production in the USA isn't profit making with todays prices let a lone with a fall in price.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

1 hour ago, BillKidd said:

I don't know the answer but I can't imagine the oil biz in the USA existing at $20.

Let's say shale oil wells cost $5 million on average, D&C. Just as an example. Say that oil is $20, and that after royalties, taxes and operating expenses, you get $15. Divide $5 million by $15 and you get 333,333 BO required just to break even. The average shale well probably doesn't even produce that much total EUR!

Not sure but I am doubting even stripper wells can be operated profitably at $20/BO gross.

So, if the above is true, it's byebye to the U.S. oil biz if price goes to $20.

In the case of a $20 oil price two scenarios can be considered.

N°1 - Long term low oil price burst the shale bubble and crash the US oil industry generating a huge financial and economic crisis. Only countries with very low breakeven (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran...) can stay in the oil business.

N°2 - To protect the US oil industry, an increasingly isolationist US government prohibits oil imports and artificially maintain a high WTI price disconnected from the falling Brent price. While the rest of the world transition to EVs and renewables, Americans refuse to abandon their huge gas-guzzlers but have to pay a much higher price for energy. The US industry affected by the cost of energy  can't compete on the foreign markets and focus on the inner market heavily protected by high tariffs.

[Dennis Coyne + 82]

The EIA's AEO2018 has average Brent real oil prices in 2017$ at $79/b on average over the next 10 years (range of $56 in 2019 and $90/b on 2028), this is their reference case (aka best guess).  The high oil price case has an average real Brent oil price of $151/b in 2017 $ from 2019 to 2028 with a range of $122/b in 2019 and $177/b in 2028. Their Low oil price scenario has real Brent prices (2017$) averaging $34/b from 2019 to 2028 with a range of $29/b in 2019 and $37/b in 2028.

My expectation is that the low oil price scenario is not very likely (unless there is a major depression that is worse than the GFC).  Something between the reference oi price scenario and the high oil price scenario seems most likely in my opinion.  Average of $115/b over the next 10 years (2019 to 2028) with a range of $80/b in 2019 and $134/b in 2028 for Brent crude in 2017$.  For my best quess I would bracket each of these by $10/b so $70-$90 in 2019, a $105 to $125/b average for the 10 year period and $124 to $144/b in 2028.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Dennis Coyne

[BillKidd + 139]

56 minutes ago, Dennis Coyne said:

The EIA's AEO2018 has average Brent real oil prices in 2017$ at $79/b on average over the next 10 years (range of $56 in 2019 and $90/b on 2028), this is their reference case (aka best guess).  The high oil price case has an average real Brent oil price of $151/b in 2017 $ from 2019 to 2028 with a range of $122/b in 2019 and $177/b in 2028. Their Low oil price scenario has real Brent prices (2017$) averaging $34/b from 2019 to 2028 with a range of $29/b in 2019 and $37/b in 2028.

My expectation is that the low oil price scenario is not very likely (unless there is a major depression that is worse than the GFC).  Something between the reference oi price scenario and the high oil price scenario seems most likely in my opinion.  Average of $115/b over the next 10 years (2019 to 2028) with a range of $80/b in 2019 and $134/b in 2028 for Brent crude in 2017$.  For my best quess I would bracket each of these by $10/b so $70-$90 in 2019, a $105 to $125/b average for the 10 year period and $124 to $144/b in 2028.

Dennis, what is GFC?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

9 minutes ago, BillKidd said:

Dennis, what is GFC?

Global financial crisis  (2008 and forward).     Basically, a New Yorker scam operation that stole a trillion or two from ordinary folks in America, and ended up infecting global markets. 

[DA? + 301]

7 hours ago, Dennis Coyne said:

The EIA's AEO2018 has average Brent real oil prices in 2017$ at $79/b on average over the next 10 years (range of $56 in 2019 and $90/b on 2028), this is their reference case (aka best guess).  The high oil price case has an average real Brent oil price of $151/b in 2017 $ from 2019 to 2028 with a range of $122/b in 2019 and $177/b in 2028. Their Low oil price scenario has real Brent prices (2017$) averaging $34/b from 2019 to 2028 with a range of $29/b in 2019 and $37/b in 2028.

My expectation is that the low oil price scenario is not very likely (unless there is a major depression that is worse than the GFC).  Something between the reference oi price scenario and the high oil price scenario seems most likely in my opinion.  Average of $115/b over the next 10 years (2019 to 2028) with a range of $80/b in 2019 and $134/b in 2028 for Brent crude in 2017$.  For my best quess I would bracket each of these by $10/b so $70-$90 in 2019, a $105 to $125/b average for the 10 year period and $124 to $144/b in 2028.

I guess it's always nice to have a dream. But the way people keep going back to the IEA reminds me of a dog going back to it's master lovingly just to be given another beating.

[AKASHJETHWANI + 1]

With the advent of EVs, we may see a peak demand in Oil very soon. Some suggest it in 2019, but I like to think that year may be 2020 or 2021, given the fact that EVs production require streamlining of supplychains, battery production, more investments in Lithium production(although this is taking place right now and MS expects a doubling of production by 2020) and many more things which take time. The earliest all this can happen is 2020. Let us assume that in year 2021, we see a global rise in production of EVs and a reduction in production of ICEs, the real affect comes from the consumers. Seeing a rise in EVs, and a future outlook of oil looking bleak, it would be obvious for OPEC to raise production to profit from oil today rather than the oil being left in the ground. Saudis have a significant advantage in this space as there cost of production is about 10 dollars, they do not mind selling the oil even at 11 dollars as long as they have a market for it. 

A reduction in crude oil prices in year 2021 to about 30 dollars, might persuade consumers to still go for ICE vehicles. This would effectively increase the demand outlook once again and we might see an increase in price thereafter before it stabilizes somewhere around 45 dollars by 2023. 

I expect oil to be traded in the region of 30-40 dollars for period 2024 - 2026 given the ceteris paribus effect. 

Now lets assume that EVs get a subsidy or a tax credit in the EU/USA in the next few years, this might change things and we might see a 5 dollar discount in the range presented above. As of today China is the world's largest importer of Oil and to ignore them in this calculation would be a catastrophe. Every country wants to be energy independent and China is no exception. If they decide, that ICEs can no longer be sold and have sufficient EV production capacity in line, CPC can do this very easily (given the fact that CPC can do anything in China) and with the biggest importer of Oil out of the picture, there will be a bloodbath in the oil market.

As for the scenario of US restricting the import of Oil and concentrating on inner market, that scenario is very unlikely.

To sum up, the timeline is very long and most scenarios change very frequently especially in the oil market which is influenced by geo-politics, supply, demand, and many other factors.

[jaycee + 348]

If oil hits $25 a barrel nobody is going to produce it. Oil producing states like Saudi cannot survive on $25 a barrel they would go bankrupt pretty quick and the natives would rebel. You would then have war thereby shutting down oil production. Alternatively the more likely scenario is oil producing states would just cut production as it would be in all their best interests in keeping their countries from disintegrating.
As for peak oil in the next couple of years due to EVs please tell me what you are smoking? Where are all these EVs? Where are all the charging stations to run them? That is not going to happen next year even in a drug induced dream.

Edited November 15, 2018 by jaycee
typo

[DA? + 301]

36 minutes ago, jaycee said:

If oil hits $25 a barrel nobody is going to produce it. Oil producing states like Saudi cannot survive on $25 a barrel they would go bankrupt pretty quick and the natives would rebel. You would then have war thereby shutting down oil production. Alternatively the more likely scenario is oil producing states would just cut production as it would be in all their best interests in keeping their countries from disintegrating.
As for peak oil in the next couple of years due to EVs please tell me what you are smoking? Where are all these EVs? Where are all the charging stations to run them? That is not going to happen next year even in a drug induced dream.

If oil hits $25 then those that can still make a profit on it will still produce it.

A lot of countries are going to go through hard times as they haven't prepared, just stuck their heads in the sand and repeated the mantra "fossil fuels are god, renewables are evil and can never compete"

There will be a time of insecurity not just because of oil collapsing but other industries. But in the end stability comes and without fossil fuels the world will be a more peaceful place.

Cutting production won't work for very long, it'll be a contracting market. Those states you mentioned like Saudi will have to produce to get the income and will likely try to force others out of the market quickly.

Now I do think AJ is a little optimistic on the time line, peak oil demand isn't far off. IEA must be smoking something if they think it out around 2040. Now EV's, I don't think you've been looking at recent sales figures or how quickly that trend is going upwards. 10% sales in California figures have just come out, 8% Canada, 7%UK and so on. Tesla has shown the way and now any car manufacture that plans to be around for a while are sinking vast amounts into EV production. Have a look at how many charging points are a round these days, although most will charge at home.

I can see why so many people are behind whats happening in the renewables and EV world when you read some of the articles published on various outlets. Some of the articles on this site have been widely out eg saying the USA market for EV's is around 100,000 per year, that was 4 to 5 years ago. EV's being mainstream, renewables being the economic choice in most markets and peak oil demand next decade, not seeing this being the near future would take some major dinosaur juice sniffing.

[Dennis Coyne + 82]

11 hours ago, BillKidd said:

Dennis, what is GFC?

The GFC is explained in link below, stands for Global Financial Crisis (2008-9).

https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/the-global-financial-crisis.html

[Dennis Coyne + 82]

5 hours ago, DA? said:

I guess it's always nice to have a dream. But the way people keep going back to the IEA reminds me of a dog going back to it's master lovingly just to be given another beating.

IEA and EIA are different, IEA=International Energy Agency, EIA= Energy Information Administration (a part of the US Department of Energy).

If your point is that we do not know future oil prices, I would agree.

I also tend to think the EIA is correct in the sense that prices are likely to fall between their low and high price range.  Note also that at the low oil price range, Permian basin LTO producers will all become bankrupt, the play is not profitable at those prices under any reasonable assumptions for well cost, OPEX, royalties, taxes, land cost, and transportation cost.

Chart below has 5 cases with aeo med being the aeo reference case and aeo med/high is the average of the reference and high oil price cases and aeo med/low is the average of the reference and low oil price scenarios.

[DA? + 301]

9 minutes ago, Dennis Coyne said:

IEA and EIA are different, IEA=International Energy Agency, EIA= Energy Information Administration (a part of the US Department of Energy).

If your point is that we do not know future oil prices, I would agree.

I also tend to think the EIA is correct in the sense that prices are likely to fall between their low and high price range.  Note also that at the low oil price range, Permian basin LTO producers will all become bankrupt, the play is not profitable at those prices under any reasonable assumptions for well cost, OPEX, royalties, taxes, land cost, and transportation cost.

Chart below has 5 cases with aeo med being the aeo reference case and aeo med/high is the average of the reference and high oil price cases and aeo med/low is the average of the reference and low oil price scenarios.

The message from the IEA and EIA are broadly the same with slightly different biasness, but I do get confused occasionally between which spouted which fairy story. How on earth could any business or country base any of its decisions on such a general forecast of the future, better invest in a far more stable trending energy sources.

Both are hopeless at predicting the future, especially when tech is involved. They have both ignored whats occurring in the renewable, EV world and so on, looking at it as something that will grow in a linear way. That's not what history teaches us about tech trends. I keep seeing them both quoted as if they had some magical crystal ball, although in some ways they are like that old woman with a crystal ball that will take your money and tell you what you want to hear.

Short term forecasting of oil futures, well you may as well toss a coin. But go out a bit further and trends can be applied with some degree of a hope being in the ball park. The chart above takes no notice of these trends. Getting further out theirs more chance of something like a black swam coming along (or even a grey swam changing everything like an AI being developed comparable to HI, then all bets are off) and changing the course of the future totally.

But what I can tell you with a high degree of chance of being sort of right is the chart above is way off, that aeo low is the optimistic future.

[Dennis Coyne + 82]

1 hour ago, DA? said:

If oil hits $25 then those that can still make a profit on it will still produce it.

A lot of countries are going to go through hard times as they haven't prepared, just stuck their heads in the sand and repeated the mantra "fossil fuels are god, renewables are evil and can never compete"

There will be a time of insecurity not just because of oil collapsing but other industries. But in the end stability comes and without fossil fuels the world will be a more peaceful place.

Cutting production won't work for very long, it'll be a contracting market. Those states you mentioned like Saudi will have to produce to get the income and will likely try to force others out of the market quickly.

Now I do think AJ is a little optimistic on the time line, peak oil demand isn't far off. IEA must be smoking something if they think it out around 2040. Now EV's, I don't think you've been looking at recent sales figures or how quickly that trend is going upwards. 10% sales in California figures have just come out, 8% Canada, 7%UK and so on. Tesla has shown the way and now any car manufacture that plans to be around for a while are sinking vast amounts into EV production. Have a look at how many charging points are a round these days, although most will charge at home.

I can see why so many people are behind whats happening in the renewables and EV world when you read some of the articles published on various outlets. Some of the articles on this site have been widely out eg saying the USA market for EV's is around 100,000 per year, that was 4 to 5 years ago. EV's being mainstream, renewables being the economic choice in most markets and peak oil demand next decade, not seeing this being the near future would take some major dinosaur juice sniffing.

DA (or is it JH?),

I see now where you are coming from. The EIA and IEA may well underestimate the speed of the transition to EVs, but there are also heavy trucks and petrochemicals and without higher oil prices the transition away from oil may be slower than you believe.  This is difficult to predict and although growth rates for passenger plugin vehicles has been impressive, as more are produced the rate of growth (in percentage terms) is likely to  fall.  One has to assume very high growth rates for plugin vehicle sales (43% per year from 2018 to 2022, 35%/year from 2023 to 2029, and 17% per year from 2030 to 2033) to reach 100% of anticipated World vehicle sales (assuming 3% growth in total passenger vehicle sales rom 2017 to 2033).

Perhaps that scenario seems realistic to some (Tony Seba and his fans), it seems a bit optimistic to me.  I expect plugin vehicle sales will rise, but growth rates will gradually slow so that 2040 to 2050, before 90% of new vehicle sales will be plugins.  

I expect World Oil output will peak between 2023 and 2027 (even in a high oil price scenario), oil prices are likely to be between the AEO reference and high oil price scenarios and the higher oil price will help to speed the transition to electric transportation.

[jaycee + 348]

1 hour ago, DA? said:

If oil hits $25 then those that can still make a profit on it will still produce it.

If oil stays at $25 most of the countries that depend on it will descend in to chaos and no oil will be produced. Do you really think  Saudis will be able to control a population used to doing nothing and getting paid for it? They will not be happy having to work for peanuts. Sorry but you are thinking about a company that produces a widget and will do it as long as there is a profit these are countries we are talking about you need to think a little deeper.

 

1 hour ago, DA? said:

Now I do think AJ is a little optimistic on the time line,

Glad we agree on something.

Edited November 15, 2018 by jaycee
typo

[Dennis Coyne + 82]

25 minutes ago, DA? said:

The message from the IEA and EIA are broadly the same with slightly different biasness, but I do get confused occasionally between which spouted which fairy story. How on earth could any business or country base any of its decisions on such a general forecast of the future, better invest in a far more stable trending energy sources.

Both are hopeless at predicting the future, especially when tech is involved. They have both ignored whats occurring in the renewable, EV world and so on, looking at it as something that will grow in a linear way. That's not what history teaches us about tech trends. I keep seeing them both quoted as if they had some magical crystal ball, although in some ways they are like that old woman with a crystal ball that will take your money and tell you what you want to hear.

Short term forecasting of oil futures, well you may as well toss a coin. But go out a bit further and trends can be applied with some degree of a hope being in the ball park. The chart above takes no notice of these trends. Getting further out theirs more chance of something like a black swam coming along (or even a grey swam changing everything like an AI being developed comparable to HI, then all bets are off) and changing the course of the future totally.

But what I can tell you with a high degree of chance of being sort of right is the chart above is way off, that aeo low is the optimistic future.

I disagree.  Tech trends are difficult to anticipate, but even a very optimistic viewpoint like that of Tony Seba, is likely to still have oil prices rising through 2030.  Perhaps things will shift faster than I believe, but I suspect it will be 20 years at least before most oil use will have been replaced to the point that demand will all below available supply so that oil prices will fall, so the AEO reference case for oil prices may be pretty close until 2040, also note that my expectation for oil supply is lower than the EIA after 2025 (my best guess for World C+C (crude plus condensate) peak output (13 month centered average output).  So the question is between 2025 and 2040 does supply fall faster than demand at the AEO reference oil price, this is unclear, but my guess is that supply falls faster than demand at the AEO reference price ($86/b in 2017$ in 2025 and $106/b in 2017$ in 2040) which would tend to drive prices higher to balance the market over the longer term (3 to 5 years).

For those that think oil prices will be volatile, I agree, but think of these scenarios as 3 year average prices.

[DA? + 301]

36 minutes ago, Dennis Coyne said:

DA (or is it JH?),

I see now where you are coming from. The EIA and IEA may well underestimate the speed of the transition to EVs, but there are also heavy trucks and petrochemicals and without higher oil prices the transition away from oil may be slower than you believe.  This is difficult to predict and although growth rates for passenger plugin vehicles has been impressive, as more are produced the rate of growth (in percentage terms) is likely to  fall.  One has to assume very high growth rates for plugin vehicle sales (43% per year from 2018 to 2022, 35%/year from 2023 to 2029, and 17% per year from 2030 to 2033) to reach 100% of anticipated World vehicle sales (assuming 3% growth in total passenger vehicle sales rom 2017 to 2033).

Perhaps that scenario seems realistic to some (Tony Seba and his fans), it seems a bit optimistic to me.  I expect plugin vehicle sales will rise, but growth rates will gradually slow so that 2040 to 2050, before 90% of new vehicle sales will be plugins.  

I expect World Oil output will peak between 2023 and 2027 (even in a high oil price scenario), oil prices are likely to be between the AEO reference and high oil price scenarios and the higher oil price will help to speed the transition to electric transportation.

I explained to my son why DA and he agrees it right for here.

The lighter trucks/busses and so on are beginning to become EV's, give it a another few years and we will start to see heavy trucks start to become EV's. There are always a few die hard's that take forever to change over to a new tech, but the majority will flip over when an EV forecourt cost with a decent range (250 miles does most drivers) is the same as a comparative ICE, luxury that's sort of now, medium range 3 to 4 yrs, low 5 to 6. It takes a while to change over the stock but the writing will be on the wall. Although driverless cars change everything, I expect 2025 level 4 and a couple years later for level 5 (I'm more conservative on this than Seba), then the ICE are basically scrap. The death of ICE comes rapidly at the end (apart from on a few ICE cars ranches) as it becomes far more expensive to drive them when the support is not behind them, sucks when you have to drive an hour to find a gas station.  

With peak oil and even with it just expected in the near future by enough, it crash's the price. OPEC can't control all producers to share out production, some will sell all they can to make a quick profit before it really starts to bite. I would really like to see oil at around $80 a barrel to help EV's and renewables but in the medium term that's not going to happen.

[DA? + 301]

8 minutes ago, Dennis Coyne said:

Tech trends are difficult to anticipate

That's not what history shows us.

[DA? + 301]

53 minutes ago, jaycee said:

If oil stays at $25 most of the countries that depend on it will descend in to chaos and no oil will be produced. Do you really think  Saudis will be able to control a population used to doing nothing and getting paid for it? They will not be happy having to work for peanuts. Sorry but you are thinking about a company that produces a widget and will do it as long as there is a profit these are countries we are talking about you need to think a little deeper.

There will be chaos but even in chaos oil flows. Some countries may descend into so much chaos that supplies shrink, but others will take their place, the price of fossil fuels will get even more chaotic at times, but the trend will be a steep curve down. Think a bit deeper about what happens in a shrinking market and how companies and countries will react. This is why we should be planning for it now.

[jaycee + 348]

59 minutes ago, DA? said:

There will be chaos but even in chaos oil flows. Some countries may descend into so much chaos that supplies shrink, but others will take their place, the price of fossil fuels will get even more chaotic at times, but the trend will be a steep curve down. Think a bit deeper about what happens in a shrinking market and how companies and countries will react. This is why we should be planning for it now.

How about you take a look at what happened within Libya and Iraq when civil war happened there? Oil supplies were very badly disrupted and the world oil price went up. As for other countries taking up the slack there will be no slack as most countries cannot make a profit at $25 so their wells will be long since decommissioned. You also do not take into account the simple problem that oil wells run dry and without exploration, which stops during low oil prices, the oil will run out. Bear in mind most of the cheap oil fields have been producing for decades where is the cheap oil going to come from?

Ever since I started in oil 30 years ago I have heard people talk about peak oil you are just the latest prophet in a long line of false ones what makes you think you are correct? You continually repeat the same viewpoint on every thread as though you have a great insight but my experience is that these insights have a habit of missing some vital point that becomes obvious after a while. I do not claim to know everything and I look for different views but you seem too convinced of your own view point to consider you maybe wrong. EVs may at some point become the vehicle of choice but there are a few hurdles to overcome before that happens and even then you will still need oil to make the plastics that will be needed to build them.

[DA? + 301]

11 minutes ago, jaycee said:

How about you take a look at what happened within Libya and Iraq when civil war happened there? Oil supplies were very badly disrupted and the world oil price went up. As for other countries taking up the slack there will be no slack as most countries cannot make a profit at $25 so their wells will be long since decommissioned. You also do not take into account the simple problem that oil wells run dry and without exploration, which stops during low oil prices, the oil will run out. Bear in mind most of the cheap oil fields have been producing for decades where is the cheap oil going to come from?

Ever since I started in oil 30 years ago I have heard people talk about peak oil you are just the latest prophet in a long line of false ones what makes you think you are correct? You continually repeat the same viewpoint on every thread as though you have a great insight but my experience is that these insights have a habit of missing some vital point that becomes obvious after a while. I do not claim to know everything and I look for different views but you seem too convinced of your own view point to consider you maybe wrong. EVs may at some point become the vehicle of choice but there are a few hurdles to overcome before that happens and even then you will still need oil to make the plastics that will be needed to build them.

As I said it will be a trend not a nice neat curve down. This is a world wide shrinking market we are talking about something your experience haven't seen yet. No in the short term many will not make a profit will still pump away thinking things will get better.

I do not pretend to be a prophet and I do not talk of certainties but probabilities, sorry if I'm not clear on that all the time. I seem to continually repeat myself because I have to continually argue against the same thing over and over. I wouldn't tell the tale of when I was working in the nuclear industry and everyone kept going on about renewables never been competitive with nuclear, insiders often live in a bubble. I maybe wrong but I have a high likelihood of being more correct than most that think oil will continue at a high price into the sunset.

EV's have overcome many hurdles that were said by many to be impossible, not mentioning an names like Nuts Lutz and they are close to being at a point when ICE seems like history. No oil is not a must for making plastics now, it may well still be the cheapest choice but that to will change.

I will stop repeating myself when a decent argument is given but I really have seen none yet.