Your idea of oil/gas prices next ten years

[DA? + 301]

8 minutes ago, oilhog said:

Follow inflation and it will end up swinging from 40ish - 80ish 10 years out.  This whole talk of EVs taking over in 4 years in non-sense. How long do consumers keep their cars? 3-7 years? What makes people think they are going to convert to a EV vehicle when gas prices are under $3.  Plus that's ignoring the airline, shipping, military and industrial markets..  

Renewable energy is great but without battery storage capacity it is unreliable.  You can't turn off the gas plant and hope the wind is blowing enough that day to feed the grid.

Battery charging infrastructure alone will take a half-decade to build out, 1-2 years planning, 1 year engineering, 6 months funding, 6 months construction

Sales of EV's about 2025 really taking off. They have already taken over the luxury market in the USA. Yes it takes time for the stock to roll over. Because they are better and already are for many cheaper over the cars lifetime and prices are getting cheaper. The question is why would any sane person want a ICE in a few years. No these other points are not ignored.

There are many answers to the problem it can and will be done.

Battery charging infrastructure is being built now and is kicking arse. Even BP's buying Tesla's batteries.

[Brent Hamrick + 31]

16 hours ago, Bobby P said:

Hi,

 

Keystone XL's operator will be TransCanada not Kinder Morgan. You may want to confirm. 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4221248-strongest-buy-midstream-sector-safest-dividend-set-increase-25-percent-annually

 

[Bobby P + 88]

Just now, Brent Hamrick said:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4221248-strongest-buy-midstream-sector-safest-dividend-set-increase-25-percent-annually

 

The existing KeyStone and Keystone XL pipeline is NOT owned/operated by KinderMorgan - it is Owned and Operated by TransCanada not Kinder Morgan. 

[jaycee + 348]

37 minutes ago, DA? said:

Cost are very reasonable, it'd didn't prove your point at all, have a look at Jordan's Green corridor they are building for all their new renewables. With the lowest bid by panel manufacturer Jinko, which bid $0.02488/kWh. With that sort of cost a load of infrastructure can be put in.

But it did I pointed out that some dodgy assumptions were made when doing these comparisons and low and behold in the notes below the table the cost of actually integrating the renewable power supply to the grid we are told is missed out! I am getting tired of this discussion even when I prove positive that I am right you deny it, you even provided the reference document!!!

 

[DA? + 301]

22 minutes ago, jaycee said:

But it did I pointed out that some dodgy assumptions were made when doing these comparisons and low and behold in the notes below the table the cost of actually integrating the renewable power supply to the grid we are told is missed out! I am getting tired of this discussion even when I prove positive that I am right you deny it, you even provided the reference document!!!

 

Yes it isn't there and so what? You proved nothing, you made the assumption that the cost of integrating renewables was going to be sky high. Really you may be getting tired as you have run around in circles and done nothing. 

[oilhog + 2]

1 hour ago, DA? said:

Sales of EV's about 2025 really taking off. They have already taken over the luxury market in the USA. Yes it takes time for the stock to roll over. Because they are better and already are for many cheaper over the cars lifetime and prices are getting cheaper. The question is why would any sane person want a ICE in a few years. No these other points are not ignored.

There are many answers to the problem it can and will be done.

Battery charging infrastructure is being built now and is kicking arse. Even BP's buying Tesla's batteries.

With vehicles I don't foresee a drastic change rush into EV's, it's not like a new iphone that just came out and its easy to replace. Saying that its logical doesn't mean people will do it.  People don't need a 400hp hemi but they buy them anyways. Maybe in the 20-30 year timeline it would be more realistic to rely less on gas.

Battery storage of energy from power plants is not far enough along, in order to build batteries that large you need to cool them, which also uses massive amounts of energy.  It's much more complex and not something that will easily be done anytime in the next couple years.

Edited November 16, 2018 by oilhog

[Sam Nataros + 2]

I don't know about oil.  I am into the natural gas exploration business.  Poeple like to stay warm.  They like hot water.  More and more gas is used to make electricty and plastics.  The prospect of NG locations is limited.  The shale gas boom is short lived as the decline rate of the wells is quite fast when comared to sand wells.  We are going to face a real gas shorage in the years to come.  EV cars and trucks need the power generated by fossile fuels.  I think EVs are great for polution control.  But the power has to come from some place.  Wind/Solar are great supporting solutions.  But there really is not that much NG out there and as a country we are addicted to it.   NG will get higher and higher over the next decade or 2 as we run to ever dwinding supplies at higher costs.  Just my thoughts.

[DA? + 301]

1 hour ago, oilhog said:

With vehicles I don't foresee a drastic change rush into EV's, it's not like a new iphone that just came out and its easy to replace. Saying that its logical doesn't mean people will do it.  People don't need a 400hp hemi but they buy them anyways. Maybe in the 20-30 year timeline it would be more realistic to rely less on gas.

Battery storage of energy from power plants is not far enough along, in order to build batteries that large you need to cool them, which also uses massive amounts of energy.  It's much more complex and not something that will easily be done anytime in the next couple years.

At the moment EV sales are rocketing and it's supply that's holding it back. Just been listening to Teslacon 2018 and we had all thought VW was just blowing hot air again about EV's, looks like they are going head first in.

Battery storage again is being held back by supply. Hornsdale in SA has been a massive success, raking in the cash and saving consumers as well. Peaker plants are pretty much stuffed by batteries now, wait till the new chemistry comes out.

[A Br 0]

Hi, im new in this forum, I really enjoy energy and money. The less I spend the better I feel. Anyway I really think that oil and gas will be almost completely replaced in the near future by solar heat that will power things by expansion into engines. If you concentrate solar rays by 20 or more you can have a differential of impedance of a factor or over 25 or even more. You then just introduce this heat at top dead center of a piston engine. Nothing is easier to store than heat and pressure. It will cost 50 cents to drive 100 miles. Electricity will cost 3 cent per kilowatt/hour. This is already known by all green car congress peoples but they also just want a money rent, so they don't commercialize any new technologies. The trick is to write a diagram on a sheet of papers and use a little of your brain. very hot oil can be stored in serial hybrid cars and trucks and it cost just one dollar to heat it. No danger at all, just big big pain for the oil and gas peoples and maybe international banks. Tell that to c. gnosh  Obama, Trudeau and Gore and Di caprio

 

A diesel or gas engines is just powered by HEAT, each and everybody lies that gas and diesel kerozen and natural gas contain energy, this is just high school juvenile thinking. An engine is powered by an expansion of cold air that is suddently heated before top dead center and the expansion is weak and cost a fortune and pollute a lot. Im 57 and in 1973 ( I was 12 y.old ) my father and family were screaming  against the higher price. Also I want to see ton of video news and documentaries about it in youtube and websites.

[jaycee + 348]

17 hours ago, DA? said:

Yes it isn't there and so what? You proved nothing, you made the assumption that the cost of integrating renewables was going to be sky high. Really you may be getting tired as you have run around in circles and done nothing. 

Where did I say the cost of integrating renewables was going to be sky high? Straw man there. I said there was costs that are constantly being missed out in comparison tables and you showed me a table and I proved my point by indicating there was costs missed out for integrating them.

We are going round in circles as you continue to spout the same renewables propaganda like a Elron Musk groupie both here and everywhere else on this site. The facts I have put before you are just ignored as inconvenient however my experience of actually designing control systems tells me there are always extra costs and doing something for the first always has extra hidden costs.

The costs for integrating renewables is not trivial and needs to be accounted for other3ise there is no fair comparison. For the amount of power you will get you have to lay cable, the UK that is undersea cable for offshore wind, and build infrastructure for each site. The cost per KW is going to be more than that for a power station which has a significantly higher power output and there is only one of it. This is just one example of many where renewables frig the numbers to make them look cheap.

A smart grid is not cheap and it will take a lot of work to make it work successfully. Renewables were hooked up to the grid in Canada and given priority and it screwed up the nuclear reactor cores of power stations on the grid now electricity costs significantly more in the affected areas. Redesigning an existing power network is not a little task.

Renewables are not as efficient as they claim, Germany has had to build coal fired power stations because the greens forced the early shutdown of nukes as they claimed renewables could take up the slack. The irony of greens forcing the building of coal power stations is another lesson in how engineers should deal with design not ideologists.

To have a large amount of EVs on the road you will need to build a significant amount of charging stations and add a significant amount of time to any journey over 200 miles as you will have to stop and charge the car. This is not an insignificant cost and it is not as efficient as the system we currently have. Add in the large amount of electricity generation capacity to be added and you have a large capital engineering project.

These are all large problems that you avoid by saying it will all be fixed and its for the greater good however I look at things logically and see large problems and large costs, I also touched on the socio-economic problems of your claim of $25 a barrel for oil in 10 years time again you dismiss human suffering as a bump in the road. I cannot discuss things with someone who does not consider anything past the sales talk of people wanting to make money out of a global change. That global change could be beneficial if all risks were managed and designs costed honestly against non renewable alternatives instead of what we have had so far is lies and failures.

[DA? + 301]

10 minutes ago, jaycee said:

Where did I say the cost of integrating renewables was going to be sky high? Straw man there. I said there was costs that are constantly being missed out in comparison tables and you showed me a table and I proved my point by indicating there was costs missed out for integrating them.

We are going round in circles as you continue to spout the same renewables propaganda like a Elron Musk groupie both here and everywhere else on this site. The facts I have put before you are just ignored as inconvenient however my experience of actually designing control systems tells me there are always extra costs and doing something for the first always has extra hidden costs.

The costs for integrating renewables is not trivial and needs to be accounted for other3ise there is no fair comparison. For the amount of power you will get you have to lay cable, the UK that is undersea cable for offshore wind, and build infrastructure for each site. The cost per KW is going to be more than that for a power station which has a significantly higher power output and there is only one of it. This is just one example of many where renewables frig the numbers to make them look cheap.

A smart grid is not cheap and it will take a lot of work to make it work successfully. Renewables were hooked up to the grid in Canada and given priority and it screwed up the nuclear reactor cores of power stations on the grid now electricity costs significantly more in the affected areas. Redesigning an existing power network is not a little task.

Renewables are not as efficient as they claim, Germany has had to build coal fired power stations because the greens forced the early shutdown of nukes as they claimed renewables could take up the slack. The irony of greens forcing the building of coal power stations is another lesson in how engineers should deal with design not ideologists.

To have a large amount of EVs on the road you will need to build a significant amount of charging stations and add a significant amount of time to any journey over 200 miles as you will have to stop and charge the car. This is not an insignificant cost and it is not as efficient as the system we currently have. Add in the large amount of electricity generation capacity to be added and you have a large capital engineering project.

These are all large problems that you avoid by saying it will all be fixed and its for the greater good however I look at things logically and see large problems and large costs, I also touched on the socio-economic problems of your claim of $25 a barrel for oil in 10 years time again you dismiss human suffering as a bump in the road. I cannot discuss things with someone who does not consider anything past the sales talk of people wanting to make money out of a global change. That global change could be beneficial if all risks were managed and designs costed honestly against non renewable alternatives instead of what we have had so far is lies and failures.

Sorry I misunderstood, have to do better with the name calling to upset me.

Now you go round in circles with your opinion on costs of integrating renewables with no facts to back you up. Yes I repeat myself it will cost much just like fossil fuel does. But we are heading for the electrification of everything and grid system have to be beefed up anyway. It's not as if  centralised large power generators don't need this, just take a look at Belgium and the problems it's having with it's nukes. Then shall we add all external costs associated with fossil fuels all the harm to humans and the general environment, they aren't added to the cost of fossil fuels, fudging the figures.

Err how many coal stations has Germany actually built recently, those that had been planned for a long time have mainly been put on hold or completely scrapped. Although it was a mistake closing down the nukes when there was no need. In fact renewables are doing quite well in Germany, lessons have been learnt.

EV's, seems you haven't been keeping up to date here. Yes charging stations will need to be built although the network is already quite extensive. For the most part these chargers are near areas with large capacity cables near by, it costs but really not huge amounts. If you need to travel large amount of mileage then I would suggest a new Tesla Model 3 long range which is over 300 miles and with quick chargers don't take to long to charge up. And they are improving rapidly. Frankly if you have just driven 300 miles and don't take a decent brake you are a danger to other road users. Not efficient as dinosaur juice!, I thought you said you were an engineer, seems like you need to go back to school. Yes it will be a large project to electrify everything, one that just about every electricity company is looking forward to, you have to invest to accumulate.

I do not dismiss any human suffering, read what I said not what you want to read. The change will happen sooner or later no matter what, what I'm saying is we need to plan for it. The fossil fuel world seems to be in full denial and that is one of the largest dangers. Of course there are people wanting to make money out of the change, that's how capitalism works. What should we do go for protectionism, because that sounds like what you want.

If you are an engineer worth their salt you really need to look in to the facts not the FUD.

[jaycee + 348]

On 11/17/2018 at 12:32 PM, DA? said:

Sorry I misunderstood, have to do better with the name calling to upset me.

Name calling? I was trying to point out the religious fervor of your arguments.  Your posting history makes you look more like a paid troll to be honest but I refraining from tagging you as such.

On 11/17/2018 at 12:32 PM, DA? said:

Now you go round in circles with your opinion on costs of integrating renewables with no facts to back you up.

The cost of integrating renewables was an example how many times to I have to point out that? I said tables are regularly frigged to show renewables are good compared to fossil fuels by missing out some costs you gave me an example and in 2 minutes flat I can see a cost that is removed to help renewables. There is no point quantifying every single way renewable salesmen twist tables life is too short. You are not reading what I write and you make up my answers.

Going forward one cost nobody mentions is the tax that will need to be applied to electricity to replace that paid by petrol and diesel. Currently petrol and diesel in the UK is taxed at nearly 50% then you to add VAT to the total, this brings in about £35 billion a year where will that revenue, not to mention the NS oil taxes, come from in an EV world? I would say the tax would apply to EVs making your cheap electricity very much more expensive. I could go on but you hopefully get the picture

On 11/17/2018 at 12:32 PM, DA? said:

Err how many coal stations has Germany actually built recently, those that had been planned for a long time have mainly been put on hold or completely scrapped.

Err how about his article from June this year  http://www.airclim.org/acidnews/germany-still-constructing-new-coal-power-stations

"Germany still constructing new coal power stations

Several countries in Europe, among them Germany, have recently built or are planning to build new coal power stations. Some examples of such plants are presented here….."

On 11/17/2018 at 12:32 PM, DA? said:

EV's, seems you haven't been keeping up to date here. Yes charging stations will need to be built although the network is already quite extensive. For the most part these chargers are near areas with large capacity cables near by, it costs but really not huge amounts. If you need to travel large amount of mileage then I would suggest a new Tesla Model 3 long range which is over 300 miles and with quick chargers don't take to long to charge up. And they are improving rapidly. Frankly if you have just driven 300 miles and don't take a decent brake you are a danger to other road users

Ok simple example as you clearly don’t drive in the real world. Say I drive 160 miles to a sporting event, which I do, where do I get the power to drive home? I have difficulty just getting a space never mind seeing one with a charger. I am sure you will say in the utopian future every space will have a charger but that is not going to be cheap which is my point EVs are not convenient and are not going to be cheap as you say as somebody ie you the user is going to have to pay for all the massive new infrastructure via surcharges on the electricity. 

On 11/17/2018 at 12:32 PM, DA? said:

I do not dismiss any human suffering, read what I said not what you want to read. T

Err the words you used to dismiss the socio-economic problems I saw in oil dependant countries losing their income are below, the dismissive part was ‘it will be a little bumpy’

"Jaycee, as I have repeatedly said yes you are correct less investment and chaos in places, long term the world will be more peaceful for the lack of oil being used. And it will be a bit bumpy as this is being widely ignored, Saudi has tried to move on but finding it difficult going"

On 11/17/2018 at 12:32 PM, DA? said:

If you are an engineer worth their salt you really need to look in to the facts not the FUD.

I am an engineer of 30 years standing so am trained to question all designs not accept them at face value. The real world is so much more different than renewables advocates understand, I earlier gave the example of a colleague currently commissioning a biodigester and gas turbine set for a local council where the costs have overrun massively and the deadline has been missed due to many things not being considered at the design stage. All my experience of actually doing what you are advocating tells me it is not as easy or as cheap as you suggest. There are clear and obvious problems in moving to EVs and renewables that will cost much more money than you or the renewable lobby are willing to look at. I am too old to believe messiahs or their acolytes having never seen anything in my experience that changes the status quo without major problems.

Now the kicker. I am actually for renewables and EVs  but I see them as a part of the world going forward not the whole world. They will have their place but they will cost more than people would lead you to believe to make them work and will not be nearly as cheap as those selling them will tell you.

[DA? + 301]

6 minutes ago, jaycee said:

Name calling? I was trying to point out the religious fervor of your arguments.  Your posting history makes you look more like a paid troll to be honest but I refraining from tagging you as such.

The cost of integrating renewables was an example how many times to I have to point out that? I said tables are regularly frigged to show renewables are good compared to fossil fuels by missing out some costs you gave me an example and in 2 minutes flat I can see a cost that is removed to help renewables. There is no point quantifying every single way renewable salesmen twist tables life is too short. You are not reading what I write and you make up my answers.

Going forward one cost nobody mentions is the tax that will need to be applied to electricity to replace that paid by petrol and diesel. Currently petrol and diesel in the UK is taxed at nearly 50% then you to add VAT to the total, this brings in about £35 billion a year where will that revenue, not to mention the NS oil taxes, come from in an EV world? I would say the tax would apply to EVs making your cheap electricity very much more expensive. I could go on but you hopefully get the picture

Err how about his article from June this year  http://www.airclim.org/acidnews/germany-still-constructing-new-coal-power-stations

"Germany still constructing new coal power stations

Several countries in Europe, among them Germany, have recently built or are planning to build new coal power stations. Some examples of such plants are presented here….."

Ok simple example as you clearly don’t drive in the real world. Say I drive 160 miles to a sporting event, which I do, where do I get the power to drive home? I have difficulty just getting a space never mind seeing one with a charger. I am sure you will say in the utopian future every space will have a charger but that is not going to be cheap which is my point EVs are not convenient and are not going to be cheap as you say as somebody ie you the user is going to have to pay for all the massive new infrastructure via surcharges on the electricity. 

Err the words you used to dismiss the socio-economic problems I saw in oil dependant countries losing their income are below, the dismissive part was ‘it will be a little bumpy’

"Jaycee, as I have repeatedly said yes you are correct less investment and chaos in places, long term the world will be more peaceful for the lack of oil being used. And it will be a bit bumpy as this is being widely ignored, Saudi has tried to move on but finding it difficult going"

I am an engineer of 30 years standing so am trained to question all designs not accept them at face value. The real world is so much more different than renewables advocates understand, I earlier gave the example of a colleague currently commissioning a biodigester and gas turbine set for a local council where the costs have overrun massively and the deadline has been missed due to many things not being considered at the design stage. All my experience of actually doing what you are advocating tells me it is not as easy or as cheap as you suggest. There are clear and obvious problems in moving to EVs and renewables that will cost much more money than you or the renewable lobby are willing to look at. I am too old to believe messiahs or their acolytes having never seen anything in my experience that changes the status quo without major problems.

Now the kicker. I am actually for renewables and EVs  but I see them as a part of the world going forward not the whole world. They will have their place but they will cost more than people would lead you to believe to make them work and will not be nearly as cheap as those selling them will tell you.

Not religious at all, are you part of the Cult of the Dinosaur Juice? Maybe trolling (or just actually trying to talk some sense in to you(waste of time really)) but not paid. Tag me what ever you please, I'm no snow flake.

I read what you said but it really was just a bit of FUD, renewables over all will be a cheaper (especially when you take in all external costs, grid, population, human health costs and so on)over all and far more sustainable. Look at the cost trends.

Electricity is taxed when brought. Then there is all those savings from a cleaner environment, easily making up for lost tax.

Germany is still building a few but not many, have you seen how they are pushing renewables and if those greens get more power maybe those massive subsidises to the coal industry will go.

Spain has killed coal, that's the way it's going.

There are actually many chargers about, look it up it seems you haven't. If not you may need to wait a couple of years and EV's will have even more range. Companies are investing in charge points, really you need to get up to date.

And so history will look back on it as a bumpy time, a bit like we look back at the Napoleonic wars. 

Sometimes you get to long in the tooth to see change, it can be a bit scary. Yes new techs often over run on expense's, what was that coal fired thing in the USA that burned through $7billion before being scrapped? But these costs should be absorbed by the contractors. I think you need to go and look at the actual price renewables can charge now and make a profit. It is amazing the work that has been put into designing a future with renewables.

A sustainable future is coming and it'll come about as it is the economic choice. EV's and renewables have been about for a while now and costs have been good and are only getting better. It'll be a dam site cheaper than what we have at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

[Auson + 123]

6 hours ago, DA? said:

Not religious at all, are you part of the Cult of the Dinosaur Juice? Maybe trolling (or just actually trying to talk some sense in to you(waste of time really)) but not paid. Tag me what ever you please, I'm no snow flake.

I read what you said but it really was just a bit of FUD, renewables over all will be a cheaper (especially when you take in all external costs, grid, population, human health costs and so on)over all and far more sustainable. Look at the cost trends.

Electricity is taxed when brought. Then there is all those savings from a cleaner environment, easily making up for lost tax.

Germany is still building a few but not many, have you seen how they are pushing renewables and if those greens get more power maybe those massive subsidises to the coal industry will go.

Spain has killed coal, that's the way it's going.

There are actually many chargers about, look it up it seems you haven't. If not you may need to wait a couple of years and EV's will have even more range. Companies are investing in charge points, really you need to get up to date.

And so history will look back on it as a bumpy time, a bit like we look back at the Napoleonic wars. 

Sometimes you get to long in the tooth to see change, it can be a bit scary. Yes new techs often over run on expense's, what was that coal fired thing in the USA that burned through $7billion before being scrapped? But these costs should be absorbed by the contractors. I think you need to go and look at the actual price renewables can charge now and make a profit. It is amazing the work that has been put into designing a future with renewables.

A sustainable future is coming and it'll come about as it is the economic choice. EV's and renewables have been about for a while now and costs have been good and are only getting better. It'll be a dam site cheaper than what we have at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

Where to start.

The first electric car was built in the 1870s theres is a reason why they weren't developed like Diesel and Gasoline vehicles have been, its energy efficiency. 

There are not enough Rare Earth Minerals in the world to replace the 2 billion ICE vehicles currently in use with 2 billion EVs

I believe that to build and run a full EV for say 10 years uses more fossil fuels than the equivalent ICE and the fuel for 10 years. ( especially if a new battery is needed every 8 years ) Battery recycling is also energy intensive and potentially polluting.

ICE vehicles can last 30 years + on the same engine an EV would require 4 batteries in this time.

Generating electricity sending it down a wire to be charged into a heavy battery which is carried around in a 2 ton Tesla for that energy to then be deployed to the road is just not efficient.  

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

Honestly, I think it will be pretty stable for the next ten years short of wars which I don't rule out.

Reasoning:

-The renewable energy infrastructure will take fossil fuels to build.  

-It will take time to phase out gasoline vehicles.

-Electric vehicles will still run off petrochemicals in many areas as the electricity is made from natural gas, or worse coal.  Areas with a lot of natural hydro, solar, geothermal, will enjoy clean air first.

 

Just follow the energy... not the $

 

 

 

[Darrell Robbings 0]

Media social sites on climate change oil on verge of becoming a dinosaur 10 or20 years Europe and China lead change

[DA? + 301]

6 hours ago, Auson said:

Where to start.

The first electric car was built in the 1870s theres is a reason why they weren't developed like Diesel and Gasoline vehicles have been, its energy efficiency. 

There are not enough Rare Earth Minerals in the world to replace the 2 billion ICE vehicles currently in use with 2 billion EVs

I believe that to build and run a full EV for say 10 years uses more fossil fuels than the equivalent ICE and the fuel for 10 years. ( especially if a new battery is needed every 8 years ) Battery recycling is also energy intensive and potentially polluting.

ICE vehicles can last 30 years + on the same engine an EV would require 4 batteries in this time.

Generating electricity sending it down a wire to be charged into a heavy battery which is carried around in a 2 ton Tesla for that energy to then be deployed to the road is just not efficient.  

The history of EV's is very interesting, those early cars were brilliant for the day. Energy efficiency didn't kill them then, there were a few reasons, go look it up.

Rare Earth Minerals can be a misleading term, did you see that island of Japan were they found masses of a number of REM's. This is an old argument, starting with lithium going to run out, it's not really an issue.

You believe wrong then EV's have far less of an environmental impact, don't go on feelings go on facts. Battery recycling, another invalid bit of FUD, for a start after been used in an EV (and out lasting an ICE a few times over for modern batteries) they are reused as stationary storage. Then they can be recycled, not that much has been done with EV batteries as they last so long. Potentially polluting, yes potentially a alien space ship could crash into Big Ben, but there is a lot of work going on to recycling batteries. In fact with cheaper  renewables energy recycling of everything will improve.

Yes some ICE cars can last 30 years, but whats the average? A normal ICE can only be expected to do about 250,000miles if loads of expensive care and attention is taken, a modern battery pack four times that. It's no longer 2012, things have moved on.

EV's are efficient, take in to account all energy required on your ICE, cradle to grave. Really look at the data, the facts, the science and stop going for the FUD.

[DA? + 301]

7 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

The renewable energy infrastructure will take fossil fuels to build.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EykpGkR0mA

That's starting to change already.

[Auson + 123]

3 hours ago, DA? said:

The history of EV's is very interesting, those early cars were brilliant for the day. Energy efficiency didn't kill them then, there were a few reasons, go look it up.

Rare Earth Minerals can be a misleading term, did you see that island of Japan were they found masses of a number of REM's. This is an old argument, starting with lithium going to run out, it's not really an issue.

You believe wrong then EV's have far less of an environmental impact, don't go on feelings go on facts. Battery recycling, another invalid bit of FUD, for a start after been used in an EV (and out lasting an ICE a few times over for modern batteries) they are reused as stationary storage. Then they can be recycled, not that much has been done with EV batteries as they last so long. Potentially polluting, yes potentially a alien space ship could crash into Big Ben, but there is a lot of work going on to recycling batteries. In fact with cheaper  renewables energy recycling of everything will improve.

Yes some ICE cars can last 30 years, but whats the average? A normal ICE can only be expected to do about 250,000miles if loads of expensive care and attention is taken, a modern battery pack four times that. It's no longer 2012, things have moved on.

EV's are efficient, take in to account all energy required on your ICE, cradle to grave. Really look at the data, the facts, the science and stop going for the FUD.

The crux of the environmental problem here is consumerism. Consuming a new 2 ton Tesla every 3 years which eventually goes to scrap due to people wanting the latest model and repairs being prohibitively expensive ( they won't even sell you the parts ) 

Can never be good for the environment, the fashion industry is another massive polluter with mountains of unsold waste and is much more unnecessary than energy.

Its a bit of a red herring whether that consumer vehicle ( which have now just become disposable white goods and are designed as such ) is a full EV, hybrid or ICE

If you want to save the planet stop consuming !

Before I get behind the EV myth as being green I need to see people wanting to buy a lightweight ultra efficient EV. They are not they want luxury SUVs that accelerate faster than a Porsche ! You can have green or you can have high performance not both.

The only really  'green' vehicle is a bicycle, electric bicycles and electric motor bikes also not too bad.

[DA? + 301]

20 minutes ago, Auson said:

The crux of the environmental problem here is consumerism. Consuming a new 2 ton Tesla every 3 years which eventually goes to scrap due to people wanting the latest model and repairs being prohibitively expensive ( they won't even sell you the parts ) 

Can never be good for the environment, the fashion industry is another massive polluter with mountains of unsold waste and is much more unnecessary than energy.

Its a bit of a red herring whether that consumer vehicle ( which have now just become disposable white goods and are designed as such ) is a full EV, hybrid or ICE

If you want to save the planet stop consuming !

Before I get behind the EV myth as being green I need to see people wanting to buy a lightweight ultra efficient EV. They are not they want luxury SUVs that accelerate faster than a Porsche ! You can have green or you can have high performance not both.

The only really  'green' vehicle is a bicycle, electric bicycles and electric motor bikes also not too bad.

Consumerism is like stupidity another fault in the human make up, we still think we need to deck ourselves out with shinny items to make us look successful. Those Tesla's are built to last, of course Tesla's still learning, mistakes have been made, but they aren't designed to fall apart like most ICE's (or just about anything manufactured really).

If you want to save the planet and not live in a mud hut, try and consume in an intelligent way.

Masses of people in India and China are buying small light weight EV's. But the way for a new technology to get into the market is first fine a niche in that market that it can sell products at the largest profit it can. Tesla saw the niche in the high end luxury market (after the first sports car) this allowed them to further invest and improve the tech. Now they have the Model 3 luxury but lower end of that market, as the tech and costs have improved this is now turning a profit. So more products can be made and more importantly more can be invested in research. And so onwards to the point EV's can be made that compete in all markets and are the best option. It's a bit like smart phones (especially apples) very high price but those spending on them are really subsidising research, so now in many countries even relatively poor people can afford a smart phone.

A bicycle is only a better option for the environment, every action has a reaction on the environment.   

 

[Auson + 123]

1 hour ago, DA? said:

Consumerism is like stupidity another fault in the human make up, we still think we need to deck ourselves out with shinny items to make us look successful. Those Tesla's are built to last, of course Tesla's still learning, mistakes have been made, but they aren't designed to fall apart like most ICE's (or just about anything manufactured really).

If you want to save the planet and not live in a mud hut, try and consume in an intelligent way.

Masses of people in India and China are buying small light weight EV's. But the way for a new technology to get into the market is first fine a niche in that market that it can sell products at the largest profit it can. Tesla saw the niche in the high end luxury market (after the first sports car) this allowed them to further invest and improve the tech. Now they have the Model 3 luxury but lower end of that market, as the tech and costs have improved this is now turning a profit. So more products can be made and more importantly more can be invested in research. And so onwards to the point EV's can be made that compete in all markets and are the best option. It's a bit like smart phones (especially apples) very high price but those spending on them are really subsidising research, so now in many countries even relatively poor people can afford a smart phone.

A bicycle is only a better option for the environment, every action has a reaction on the environment.   

 

Your right ' every action has a reaction on the environment ' now do you think building a bicycle has as much of a negative effect as building a 2 ton Tesla model X then running it on coal, gas, renewables and nuclear.

 

[DA? + 301]

25 minutes ago, Auson said:

Your right ' every action has a reaction on the environment ' now do you think building a bicycle has as much of a negative effect as building a 2 ton Tesla model X then running it on coal, gas, renewables and nuclear.

 

No, but to get to the cheap EV we need to go through the expensive, like the model X and get those sustainable renewables going. If we don't go forward we'll end up back in a mud hut eating turnips. I'm getting old, I like a bit of comfort, I like the fact that my cancer was sorted, I like the fact my boy has a chance to grow up in a safer more sustainable world for the likes of Musk working dam hard to try and push the world kicking and screaming into being a better place.

The only way to get to a better world for everyone is embracing science and technology and trying our best to use it wisely and one of the tools to this end is economics. Get those techs into those niche markets then prise those markets open, there can be a world where we live in comfort and wealth whilst living in a sustainable environment.  

[Auson + 123]

43 minutes ago, DA? said:

No, but to get to the cheap EV we need to go through the expensive, like the model X and get those sustainable renewables going. If we don't go forward we'll end up back in a mud hut eating turnips. I'm getting old, I like a bit of comfort, I like the fact that my cancer was sorted, I like the fact my boy has a chance to grow up in a safer more sustainable world for the likes of Musk working dam hard to try and push the world kicking and screaming into being a better place.

The only way to get to a better world for everyone is embracing science and technology and trying our best to use it wisely and one of the tools to this end is economics. Get those techs into those niche markets then prise those markets open, there can be a world where we live in comfort and wealth whilst living in a sustainable environment.  

You think Elon is a good example of a CEO or even a human being ? 

Unfortunately there are not enough resources in the world for everyone to live like we do.

We have such a high standard of living because we exploit the minerals and resources of the developing nations and their cheap labour too. I think EVs are even worse at this than plain old ICE.

[DA? + 301]

1 hour ago, Auson said:

You think Elon is a good example of a CEO or even a human being ? 

Unfortunately there are not enough resources in the world for everyone to live like we do.

We have such a high standard of living because we exploit the minerals and resources of the developing nations and their cheap labour too. I think EVs are even worse at this than plain old ICE.

Hickory dickory dock the .....

Someone that tries their best to do something decent for the world is a better person than I. He seems to have done a good job so far moving the automotive world of it's retarded arse and getting it moving. Getting us in to space at a very reasonable price. Changed the world of power storage and so on. What have you done today? Err yes I think he is a human being, are you?

Oh stop with the Malthusian rubbish their are resources a plenty in this universe for us all to live like kings or Queens.

Yes we have and still do, it's time to stop this small minded idea of limited resources, there is plenty if we choose to use them wisely.

Yes I expect you would think EV's are worse than ICE's, just another that ignores facts and is scared to look at the reality that the world is changing and moving on. Our society needed religion and fossil fuels to evolve and to get as far as we have, now we have better more enlighten ways to follow. Don't be a dinosaur and live in the fossilised past, you know what happened to them.

[KAIZAD BHIWANDIWALLA 0]

On 11/14/2018 at 9:03 PM, BillKidd said:

What do you guys think the price of crude oil (WTI) and natural gas will be over the next ten years? A range is fine if you don't want to predict at average. Thanks.

$125/barrel