Your idea of oil/gas prices next ten years

[KAIZAD BHIWANDIWALLA 0]

$125/day

 

[Domingo + 1]

It used to be “King Oil”. No other competitor for energy. Yet, all energy has a cost to produce. If oil goes to $20, like someone is speculating, then it would be competitive again at that price, and demand would cause a rise in price. I think that $20 price, albeit not recession prices, is too low. Can someone add to this without the Armageddon scenario? 

 

[DA? + 301]

2 hours ago, Domingo said:

It used to be “King Oil”. No other competitor for energy. Yet, all energy has a cost to produce. If oil goes to $20, like someone is speculating, then it would be competitive again at that price, and demand would cause a rise in price. I think that $20 price, albeit not recession prices, is too low. Can someone add to this without the Armageddon scenario? 

 

It's driven so low by a contracting market. It doesn't take to much over production at all to lower the price considerably. Are you going to walk away from those assets or keep pumping hoping the price will head up again? Although it is an Armageddon scenario for the industry, which is probably part of the reason they hate it.

[KAIZAD BHIWANDIWALLA 0]

9 hours ago, KAIZAD BHIWANDIWALLA said:

$125/barrel

 

Between $100 to $125

[Jovito Catungal + 6]

No one can be certain for the next 10 years but barring extreme circumstances such as war and major calamities affecting the production sites and logistic point of oil/gas..the price will go down very low like 30/2 USD due to aggressive search of alternative energy sources and abundance of supply due to extensive search and discoveries.

[gaja90 0]

I thing the demand for crude oil will be growing in next ten years, so I expect that the price of crude oil in next ten years will be between 100-120$ per barel (wti). 

[M. Saada + 6]

On ‎11‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 1:40 PM, Dennis Coyne said:

DA (or is it JH?),

I see now where you are coming from. The EIA and IEA may well underestimate the speed of the transition to EVs, but there are also heavy trucks and petrochemicals and without higher oil prices the transition away from oil may be slower than you believe.  This is difficult to predict and although growth rates for passenger plugin vehicles has been impressive, as more are produced the rate of growth (in percentage terms) is likely to  fall.  One has to assume very high growth rates for plugin vehicle sales (43% per year from 2018 to 2022, 35%/year from 2023 to 2029, and 17% per year from 2030 to 2033) to reach 100% of anticipated World vehicle sales (assuming 3% growth in total passenger vehicle sales rom 2017 to 2033).

Perhaps that scenario seems realistic to some (Tony Seba and his fans), it seems a bit optimistic to me.  I expect plugin vehicle sales will rise, but growth rates will gradually slow so that 2040 to 2050, before 90% of new vehicle sales will be plugins.  

I expect World Oil output will peak between 2023 and 2027 (even in a high oil price scenario), oil prices are likely to be between the AEO reference and high oil price scenarios and the higher oil price will help to speed the transition to electric transportation.

I agree that 25$ is too low and above 100 is too high. In the short term, current consumption is boosted by buying for storage: countries like China, India etc.,  are buying oil for storage when the price declines and market players and speculator are doing the same whenever price forward curve is in contango. Lots of oil is stored and this makes it hard to forecast real demand for comsumption. It is also true that futur oil demand will be affected the decline of Diesel oil and the rise of Electric energy demand and production. It is clear now that diesel oil demand is doomed to decline considerably in next 5 years as a result of many countries committing  to reducing it. This is not good for oil price.  However, the question is what will be used to produce electricity. For the several year to come it seems that Natural gas and solar will provide the source. This means that oil demand will decline accordingly. In the long run, demand for oil and energy in general will depend on economic and demographic conditions. Recent trends seem to indicate that world economic growth is declining in response to  generational demographic changes which are behind the commodities super cycle. This cycle is still around as evidenced by the current decline of most commodities prices. Oil is one of them and despite some time lags, long term oil price follows the same trend as the trend for other commodities. Since the down trend of this super cycle lasts 13 to 15 years and is currently only 5 years old (assuming start from the 2013 peak), it may have more down years to come... So oil price could go down to around 45 $ in 2024 and likely to go up there after toward the 90s or 100s. However geopolitical issues could dramatically affect this long term trend...

[Mehrdad Nematollahi + 4]

The fear from near future  oil supply  and / or trust about enough supply will have a tremendous effect on the oil price .

Iranian oil sanctions  and then the waiver on eight countries to continue buying oil is a recent example.

But for future ; 

Depletion  rate of five percent to ten percent  on on shore oil fields production will have a great effect on oil price. Saudi and Russian depletion will be around five hundred thousand barrels per day. American shale should compensate .

Remedy:

1- Shale oil   and  deep offshore production Investment will be the remedy to control the oil price.

2- I hope the political conflicts end soon in middle east , so the countries could invest more on their oil fields.

Definetly oil price will increase in 2019 and 2020( in the range 80 USD up to 100 USD). Gas Condensate refineries will develop more in many countries.Natural gas and  gas condensate will have more share in energy basket of countries.

I hope I can contribute on that projects ,anywhere in the world( as well as my son).

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 11/15/2018 at 9:17 PM, DA? said:

Short term forecasting of oil futures, well you may as well toss a coin. But go out a bit further and trends can be applied with some degree of a hope being in the ball park. The chart above takes no notice of these trends. Getting further out theirs more chance of something like a black swam coming along (or even a grey swam changing everything like an AI being developed comparable to HI, then all bets are off) and changing the course of the future totally.

DA, how close do you think Artificial Intelligence currently is to being comparable to Human Intelligence?

Able to routinely pass a Turing Test soon?  

[DA? + 301]

42 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

DA, how close do you think Artificial Intelligence currently is to being comparable to Human Intelligence?

Able to routinely pass a Turing Test soon?  

In certain areas AI already has left us standing, but in a full spectrum way it's hard to say. Once a AI that can self replicate and evolve with a pressure with in it to improve it's general intelligence then it's going to happen rapidly. We are at the point today when AI's can write another AI with a very specific task. So if I were to hazard a guess 10 to 20 years.

Turing Test isn't really a great test for an AI, plenty of people are fooled all the time on the phone thinking they are talking to a human.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

7 minutes ago, DA? said:

In certain areas AI already has left us standing, but in a full spectrum way it's hard to say. Once a AI that can self replicate and evolve with a pressure with in it to improve it's general intelligence then it's going to happen rapidly. We are at the point today when AI's can write another AI with a very specific task. So if I were to hazard a guess 10 to 20 years.

Turing Test isn't really a great test for an AI, plenty of people are fooled all the time on the phone thinking they are talking to a human.

DA, any idea how a human would determine if a poster is Al or HI on a forum? 

And related, how would an Al know if it is conversing with a human or with another Al?  It would seem to be counterproductive and a waste of time for an Al to spend time conversing with another Al.

[DA? + 301]

2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

DA, any idea how a human would determine if a poster is Al or HI on a forum? 

And related, how would an Al know if it is conversing with a human or with another Al?  It would seem to be counterproductive and a waste of time for an Al to spend time conversing with another Al.

Difficult often to tell, giving them something random and then seeing what they come up with could work, although they still do quite often slip up.

As AI's get better it's even difficult for an AI to tell but if theres enough text then it gets easier. In some ways AI to AI is great training, but can go off the rails. Two AI's recently got closed down in an experiment when they basically came up with their own language, you always need to have the program explain it's actions.

[ricky + 1]

If you haven't noticed, most of the luxuries, if not all, which were in the 70's, now come standard in all new cars. My guess within the next 10 years you may not have much of a choice but hybrid, possible even EV. that will definitely effect the line at the pumps and change the price of oil. Brent, a popular use for gas will definitely be at it's historical lowest and gas under $2.

[Auson + 123]

On 11/21/2018 at 12:24 PM, ricky said:

If you haven't noticed, most of the luxuries, if not all, which were in the 70's, now come standard in all new cars. My guess within the next 10 years you may not have much of a choice but hybrid, possible even EV. that will definitely effect the line at the pumps and change the price of oil. Brent, a popular use for gas will definitely be at it's historical lowest and gas under $2.

If Gas were to be under $2 a Gal in the next 10 years no one would be bother about using lots of it. The key to EV's and greener transport is a very high Brent price $100+ is where she will settle.

[Rodent + 1,424]

On 11/21/2018 at 5:38 AM, DA? said:

Difficult often to tell, giving them something random and then seeing what they come up with could work, although they still do quite often slip up.

As AI's get better it's even difficult for an AI to tell but if theres enough text then it gets easier. In some ways AI to AI is great training, but can go off the rails. Two AI's recently got closed down in an experiment when they basically came up with their own language, you always need to have the program explain it's actions.

I'm not gonna lie, I'm super creeped out. I'm going to go eat some turkey and forget I ever saw this conversation.

High oil prices are renewables' only hope. 

[DA? + 301]

4 hours ago, Rodent said:

I'm not gonna lie, I'm super creeped out. I'm going to go eat some turkey and forget I ever saw this conversation.

High oil prices are renewables' only hope. 

Happy Turkey Stuffing Day.

I may have to revise my cost of oil having just seen a table from the IEA. This could if it runs this way mean oil price goes sky high and I'm of to buy my EV and solar. But how many IEA predictions come true?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

8 hours ago, Rodent said:

I'm not gonna lie, I'm super creeped out. I'm going to go eat some turkey and forget I ever saw this conversation.

Enjoy your turkey : )

Google Wants To Data Mine Your Home And Kids' Bedroom

[JunoTen + 118]

I believe demand for oil will peak during this decade and will be significantly lower than today in 2028, so I expect equilibrium oil prices to be low, as for gas it will be even lower because the lion's share of electricity generation will come from solar and wind in 2028.