WTI @ $56.46 - Going to ???

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 hours ago, Osama said:

I hope you started it under the rubric of 'Trading and Technicals'?

Nope.

 

[ATK + 355]

Yeah I'm actually surprised by the rise in price after that huge build, it's that jump to $76 all over again. I honestly think it pertains to what catch22 said that sellers are just reluctant because of how fast prices already fell. In other words, the market has shifted it's focus back to the technical side of things rather than fundamental (at least for now). Probably sell my puts at a loss this week, oh well! You win some you lose some

[A/Plague + 50]

,

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Saudis/OPEC and to some degree Russia are pissed at Trump:  Trump got everybody pumping to capacity (at least out loud.  Realistically, they were meeting demand, that's all) and they still believed the price would still not drop much after Iranian Sanctions kicked in.  But, Donald pulled a fast one at the last minute with 8 major waivers.

Sanctions have now been imposed against the KSA at very high levels.  Double whammy for the Saudis, with the waiver fiasco.  You think they are stomping around the palaces ranting about what they would do to Trump if they had the chance?

Plus, refineries went to low gear for annual maintenance, so there was a good build while shale was pumped past what the current pipelines can carry to port (plus there was no increase in export demand).  Refineries have been coming back on line and winter demand looks to be going up because of a surprisingly cold winter, so the build will be going back down.  The significance of this is that the U.S. is probably exporting at capacity right now and could not reliably make up for any global shortfall.

Edited November 16, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Does anyone think the Saudis feel like they owe Donald any more favors?

[ATK + 355]

3 hours ago, ATK said:

Yeah I'm actually surprised by the rise in price after that huge build, it's that jump to $76 all over again. I honestly think it pertains to what catch22 said that sellers are just reluctant because of how fast prices already fell. In other words, the market has shifted it's focus back to the technical side of things rather than fundamental (at least for now). Probably sell my puts at a loss this week, oh well! You win some you lose some

Well shit I may actually turn a profit at this rate lol

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

After my comments above, I find this article coming out in a similar vein (note the caption on the graphic "Saudis cut flows to US to boost prices after being duped:):

Saudi Arabia is slashing oil shipments to US, a tactic that boosts prices and may rile Trump

The Saudis are loading fewer barrels on ships bound for the United States this month, continuing a trend that began in September, according to an analysis by tanker-tracking firm ClipperData. The firm's loading estimate suggests that U.S. imports of Saudi crude oil could soon fall toward the lowest levels on record.

Sending fewer barrels to the United States means U.S. crude stockpiles are more likely to drop, and shrinking inventories tend to push up oil prices. It's a tactic the Saudis used last year to amplify their main strategy for draining a global crude glut and propping up the market: cutting output alongside fellow OPEC members, Russia and several other producers.

[Osama + 248]

18 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

A good source of mine tells me it was already baked in.

Well.....the prices did touch $58 and then took a downturn

[Osama + 248]

Talking of favors, Dan:

 

CIA says MbS involved in Kashoggi's killing---https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi0z9vG19reAhVGUhoKHQRDAlgQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fmiddle-east%2Fjamal-khashoggi-murder-cia-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-order-a8638181.html&psig=AOvVaw2Tm3xnkelQHARdEvzMUDJK&ust=1542518557535574

 

How will it play out?

@ATK, @Tom kirkman, @William Edwards.

[Osama + 248]

On 11/16/2018 at 9:05 AM, catch22 said:

Of course it adds fundamental reason... hence keep an eye on the support line and watch for the break...

But this would not be the first time oil price has done the opposite to the inventory numbers suggest - hence i often use technical analysis in connection with fundamentals and i wait for those key support or resistance lines to break rather than jump in early. In the next london, or more probably the US session - its likely the WTI price gets smashed down again, however sellers will be a little cautious as the price has already fallen so far already and reluctant to offer it lower.

I would wait for a solid break down before going short. I would not go long despite an upward break - just too risky with those inventory numbers but its nowhere near the long term descending channel resistance on the higher TF 4H chart - so there is a reason for it to go up on a purely technical basis. You would have to have serious kahunas to take the long break in the face of those inventories tho... not the sort of risk i like to take...

The price often creeps up during asian session after a big drop like its doing today, its repeated this behavior many times in the past - just ignore it. The fireworks always happen in the US session, but see my support and resistance lines to watch for breaks below;

I do not know why I was not able to get any notification here....otherwise today's loss would have been avoided!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

53 minutes ago, Osama said:

Talking of favors, Dan:

 

CIA says MbS involved in Kashoggi's killing---https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi0z9vG19reAhVGUhoKHQRDAlgQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fworld%2Fmiddle-east%2Fjamal-khashoggi-murder-cia-saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-order-a8638181.html&psig=AOvVaw2Tm3xnkelQHARdEvzMUDJK&ust=1542518557535574

 

How will it play out?

@ATK, @Tom kirkman, @William Edwards.

Of course he's involved.  But he cannot be blamed; that job belongs to someone else.  His job is to be visionary and take credit.  When is the last time a King's son, the Crown Prince, already handling day-to-day matters hauled in for a trial?  Who knows how it will play out?

[catch22 + 244]

4 hours ago, Osama said:

I do not know why I was not able to get any notification here....otherwise today's loss would have been avoided!

Did you not see the part of my post where i said "the price will likely be smashed back down again in the US session"?

The move lower in the final session of the week was also a little more subdued compared to the previous "smashings" because sellers lack conviction to offer it lower than where it already is - remember its already fallen a tremendous amount over the last 2 weeks so fundamentally - much, most, if not all, of the bearish fundamentals has already been priced into the current price as per Dan Warnicks post. Even a big inventory build wont have much effect from here - at least not initially until the price has some time to consolidate and come out of extreme oversold conditions - this takes time for the market makers to asses what a fair price really is based on whats happening at the time. After a period of time of more or less sideways movement, the market price is considered neutral again -  neither over or underpriced, so the market makers will once again have the conviction to drive prices one way or the other if they beleive it should go higher or lower- again depending on what the market conditions and geopolictical conditions are like at that time, but now they do not fear a technical reason not to bid it up or offer it lower...

The same applies to bull rallies like the previous rally to +$76... - even in the face of bearish fundamental news at the time - the market ignored it and kept climbing higher and higher until it was extremely overbought. Then once everyone realized it didnt make sense it hesitated for a period of time as the bears lacked conviction in the face of such a strong rally, then after a period of consolidation, down down down she went as the bears gathered conviction and the bulls lost theirs... there was simply no reason for prices to be that high so the bears start to win based on conviction alone and the fundamental reasons to back it.

 

[A/Plague + 50]

4 hours ago, catch22 said:

Did you not see the part of my post where i said "the price will likely be smashed back down again in the US session"?

The move lower in the final session of the week was also a little more subdued compared to the previous "smashings" because sellers lack conviction to offer it lower than where it already is - remember its already fallen a tremendous amount over the last 2 weeks so fundamentally - much, most, if not all, of the bearish fundamentals has already been priced into the current price as per Dan Warnicks post. Even a big inventory build wont have much effect from here - at least not initially until the price has some time to consolidate and come out of extreme oversold conditions - this takes time for the market makers to asses what a fair price really is based on whats happening at the time. After a period of time of more or less sideways movement, the market price is considered neutral again -  neither over or underpriced, so the market makers will once again have the conviction to drive prices one way or the other if they beleive it should go higher or lower- again depending on what the market conditions and geopolictical conditions are like at that time, but now they do not fear a technical reason not to bid it up or offer it lower...

The same applies to bull rallies like the previous rally to +$76... - even in the face of bearish fundamental news at the time - the market ignored it and kept climbing higher and higher until it was extremely overbought. Then once everyone realized it didnt make sense it hesitated for a period of time as the bears lacked conviction in the face of such a strong rally, then after a period of consolidation, down down down she went as the bears gathered conviction and the bulls lost theirs... there was simply no reason for prices to be that high so the bears start to win based on conviction alone and the fundamental reasons to back it.

 

😂

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

NO LOW IS LOW AND NO HIGH IS HIGH...  😉 

[Osama + 248]

On ‎11‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 2:50 PM, catch22 said:

Did you not see the part of my post where i said "the price will likely be smashed back down again in the US session"?

The move lower in the final session of the week was also a little more subdued compared to the previous "smashings" because sellers lack conviction to offer it lower than where it already is - remember its already fallen a tremendous amount over the last 2 weeks so fundamentally - much, most, if not all, of the bearish fundamentals has already been priced into the current price as per Dan Warnicks post. Even a big inventory build wont have much effect from here - at least not initially until the price has some time to consolidate and come out of extreme oversold conditions - this takes time for the market makers to asses what a fair price really is based on whats happening at the time. After a period of time of more or less sideways movement, the market price is considered neutral again -  neither over or underpriced, so the market makers will once again have the conviction to drive prices one way or the other if they beleive it should go higher or lower- again depending on what the market conditions and geopolictical conditions are like at that time, but now they do not fear a technical reason not to bid it up or offer it lower...

The same applies to bull rallies like the previous rally to +$76... - even in the face of bearish fundamental news at the time - the market ignored it and kept climbing higher and higher until it was extremely overbought. Then once everyone realized it didnt make sense it hesitated for a period of time as the bears lacked conviction in the face of such a strong rally, then after a period of consolidation, down down down she went as the bears gathered conviction and the bulls lost theirs... there was simply no reason for prices to be that high so the bears start to win based on conviction alone and the fundamental reasons to back it.

 

Very well explained !!!

[Osama + 248]

On ‎11‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 11:22 AM, Dan Warnick said:

Of course he's involved.  But he cannot be blamed; that job belongs to someone else.  His job is to be visionary and take credit.  When is the last time a King's son, the Crown Prince, already handling day-to-day matters hauled in for a trial?  Who knows how it will play out?

I agree...but with Trump on the other side---shouldn't we expect something that nobody has ever expected?: Diplomatic war with KSA that of US.

[Auson + 123]

Hope no one was long ouch !

The fall has got to be overdone now !

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

 

[Oilfuturestrader + 10]

Let's all just discuss there!