EU calls for sanctions against Italy

[jaycee + 348]

32 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I have worked with Italian companies. And yes, there are great people. I have also seen why Italy is in the trouble they are in. You seem to feel the plight of the ordinary Italians and therefore sympathize and demonize the EU. I believe Italy needs support. Really. I also believe they need to take some responsibillity. I will call a few friends and ask them about 5 star, what I have seen in television does not paint the picture you do. 

I worked with a 5 Star councillor, he was a civil engineer, we spoke often and socialised together in a group he was a former communist and very passionate about politics. I met other 5 Star supporters who were right wing nationalists but all wanted to change Italy and get rid of the old politicians and corruption and start again. They all loved their country but disliked the Germans/EU for the austerity that never ends. The views I have here are mainly derived from the people I met there. What they say is all true from their point of view, you can look from the EU side and I am sure your viewpoint would be valid however a solution cannot be found by making the same mistakes as with Greece so I side with the Italians who want to change things. 5 Star will collapse in the future of course as the alliance is far to varied to please everyone and this is Italy the land of revolving governments but what unites them is their desire for change and a chance to rebuild Italy but all they hear is nonsense from the EU. I mean where does it make sense to fine Italy for not meeting their budget targets when they are so much in debt? Some logical thinking is needed.

ps I started with your view but realised the differences between humans and countries that  I have been trying to make to you. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by jaycee
ps added

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

7 minutes ago, jaycee said:

You have to think differently you are assuming you are dealing with a human again this is a country and politics is not black and white. The EU made a mistake letting Italy in and Italy falsified the accounts to do so but if I know that then the EU did too a compromise is needed. If you force one view only in politics then the other side will refuse to accept it. Again I point to the Brexit negotiations where the one sided deal is about to be rejected. The EU wants to continue to punish Italians for their politicians being corrupt pretty soon the people are going to get very annoyed and elect a separatist party, like the League, and then they will leave and the consequences though bad for Italy will be devastating for the EU, So far the Germanic/EU solution to Greece has not worked as they need even more loans now than was anticipated as the economy is ruined, Italians have seen this and realise that they need to change the medicine as the Germans have no idea what they are doing, apart from protecting their own banks, so more austerity is not something they will accept. 

I have encountered this "I win or we both loose" style negotiation in business before. It creates lose / lose situations. There has to be a compromise. Debt forgiveness, without real concession is pointless. Seriously. There is so much precedence. I feel sorry for the real victims - the populatons that are being deceived by their politician. 

Interestingly, if we had a strong EU where countries would give away soveriegnty EU could end some of this.... My point is that there is always 2 sides to the coin.

[jaycee + 348]

3 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I have encountered this "I win or we both loose" style negotiation in business before. It creates lose / lose situations. There has to be a compromise. Debt forgiveness, without real concession is pointless. Seriously. There is so much precedence. I feel sorry for the real victims - the populatons that are being deceived by their politician. 

Interestingly, if we had a strong EU where countries would give away soveriegnty EU could end some of this.... My point is that there is always 2 sides to the coin.

Compromise is good but at the moment there is nothing being offered to Italy apart from more of the same and penalties on top. 5 Star is offering to try and change the way Italy is and reinflate the economy to ignore that will lead to more radical polticians coming forward. The olive branch is being held out but the EU is still shooting.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

Just now, jaycee said:

Compromise is good but at the moment there is nothing being offered to Italy apart from more of the same and penalties on top. 5 Star is offering to try and change the way Italy is and reinflate the economy to ignore that will lead to more radical polticians coming forward. The olive branch is being held out but the EU is still shooting.

I will have to take a closer look. 

My understanding this far was that 5 star are offering a lot of hot air with no assurance that it could be backed up. 

[jaycee + 348]

4 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I will have to take a closer look. 

My understanding this far was that 5 star are offering a lot of hot air with no assurance that it could be backed up. 

And that is politics....assurances are not worth the paper they are written on anyway. As an example I dont trust any of the weasel words the EU has said to the UK so far on Brexit. The Spainish and the French have already started showing their true colours and hinting at unreasonable demands once the UK is trapped on an immovable backstop everyone is a liar and the best ones become politicians.
The situation just now is continue with the Germanic 'punish the debtor' idea which has failed miserably in Greece or try something new which at the very least makes Italy more stable. If they get it wrong the EU collapses at the next turndown. No pressure.

Edited November 27, 2018 by jaycee
correcting typos

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

4 minutes ago, jaycee said:

And that is politics....assurances are not worth the paper they are written on anyway. IAs an example I dont trust any of the weasel words the EU has said to the UK so far on Brrexit. The Spain and the French have already started showing their true colours and hinting at unreasonable demands once the UK is trapped on an immovable backstop everyone is a liar and the best ones become politicians.
The situation just now is continue with the Germanic punish the debtor idea which has failed miserably in Greece or try something new which at the very least makes Italy more stable. If they get it wrong the EU collapses at the next turndown. No pressure.

Brexit is a different discussion. 

Will revert once I have a better understanding of the Italy situation. 

[jaycee + 348]

15 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Brexit is a different discussion. 

Will revert once I have a better understanding of the Italy situation. 

I used Brexit as an example of how the EU works.

Have a chat get some more background.

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

50 minutes ago, jaycee said:

You have to think differently you are assuming you are dealing with a human again this is a country and politics is not black and white. The EU made a mistake letting Italy in and Italy falsified the accounts to do so but if I know that then the EU did too a compromise is needed. If you force one view only in politics then the other side will refuse to accept it. Again I point to the Brexit negotiations where the one sided deal is about to be rejected. The EU wants to continue to punish Italians for their politicians being corrupt pretty soon the people are going to get very annoyed and elect a separatist party, like the League, and then they will leave and the consequences though bad for Italy will be devastating for the EU, So far the Germanic/EU solution to Greece has not worked as they need even more loans now than was anticipated as the economy is ruined, Italians have seen this and realise that they need to change the medicine as the Germans have no idea what they are doing, apart from protecting their own banks, so more austerity is not something they will accept. 

You said the EU made a mistake letting Italy in but Italy was a founding member of the EU so I suppose you are talking about the Eurozone...

Then you said the people are going to get very annoyed and elect a separatist party, like the League. They have already done that... the League is now in the government coalition with the 5 Stars. By the way a very unstable coalition.

We have to remember also that Italy has been ruled for more than 10 years by Berlusconi, a selfish businessman turned politician, in many ways a kind of Italian Trump, and the result has been very far from glorious.

[jaycee + 348]

3 hours ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

You said the EU made a mistake letting Italy in but Italy was a founding member of the EU so I suppose you are talking about the Eurozone...

Then you said the people are going to get very annoyed and elect a separatist party, like the League. They have already done that... the League is now in the government coalition with the 5 Stars. By the way a very unstable coalition.

We have to remember also that Italy has been ruled for more than 10 years by Berlusconi, a selfish businessman turned politician, in many ways a kind of Italian Trump, and the result has been very far from glorious.

Sorry yes it was the Euro, they overstated their GDP by including the Black Market and it was accepted. It was joining the Euro that got them in this mess as it meant they could borrow at lower rates than usual.

The League are in partnership with 5 Star in the alliance but are not the largest group therefore their more radical views are suppressed. If the alliance fails then it may return with the League as the majority partner and a whole new agenda as by then it will be clear trying to negotiate did not work so leaving is the best option which is more where they stand on the solution.

Not getting the Berlusconi reference. He has nothing to do with 5 Star.  Do you know that last week 5 Star pulled down 8 Mafia built and owned mansions in Rome that were illegally built? Not something previous administrations have dared to do.  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6409569/Italian-police-seize-eight-villas-illegally-built-Casamonica-Mafia-mobsters.html
As an aside I remember asking why he was ever elected and the reply was the best way to deal with a corrupt country is to elect someone who is corrupt and can at least make it work. He will take some for himself obviously but he was better than his predecessors who were just corrupt politicians who organised crime ran rings round.

Edited November 27, 2018 by jaycee
badly typed in a hurry added clarification

[jaycee + 348]

1 hour ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Corruption? Ruin Italy? See here. It's doing better than Slovakia and Croatia, both better economically. I think they're better, at least. Italy is tough, they have a long way to go to become a failed state.

The link shows public sector corruption from my experience the corruption is predominately in the private sector where organised crime has its hands everywhere, I was subject to an attempted bribe in a meeting once it was so blatant I was shocked but it seem normal to the proposer. I have many other stories from other people.
They are a long way from a failed state I agree but Leymans looked pretty secure before it went under. Once the dominoes start falling a lot can happen. When that happens the EU is going to have to throw the kitchen sink, moneywise, at Italy to stabilise it which compared to a little reduction in debt is a small insurance cost. Take them off the edge let them grow, they cannot grow when all their money goes to debt repayment. 

Edited November 27, 2018 by jaycee

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 11/27/2018 at 4:43 PM, jaycee said:

The link shows public sector corruption from my experience the corruption is predominately in the private sector where organised crime has its hands everywhere, I was subject to an attempted bribe in a meeting once it was so blatant I was shocked but it seem normal to the proposer. I have many other stories from other people

As a rule of thumb public sectors are typically more corrupt than private. That corruption is spreading to the private sector show that corruption is deeply embedded in the culture. But this cannot be pinned on the EU. 

[Guillaume Albasini + 851]

Italy has had 64 governments since World War II. Each government implied a coalition gathering several political parties. And usually that led to deals such as that :

"OK we'll join the coalition but the government has to support a new law that will channel some funds to this segment of the society (social group or region) where most of our electors come from."

This led to a huge amount of laws piling up, a growing bureaucracy and huge inefficient public spending .

This also cannot be pinned on the EU.

The EU added a new layer of regulations but usually also bringing more clarity and replacing inefficient electorally motivated national regulations by more technically motivated rules.

However many social groups or components of the Italian society don't want to lose the specific benefits that these taylored laws have created for them and they usually tend to oppose each attemp to reform and simplify the Italian bureaucracy.

To survive in this jungle of laws the private sector is  usually flirting with the limits of the law and tax evasion is a national sport.

[jaycee + 348]

As an update.... I was drinking with an Italian friend last night and the discussion turned to what will happen regards the Italian budget proposal and the EU. He is firmly of the opinion they will slowly move their budget back to where the EU want it however will be allowed to overspend by the EU turning a blind eye. Already the Italians are offering only a 2.2% budget overspend compared to their original 2.4%.

[Ian Chesterton + 3]

When the UK has gone the EU will gradually go bankrupt. After 29th March the 3 biggest EU economies will be France, Spain and Italy. None of those are now economic powerhouses. Germany will be the one country powering the EU. Most of the other members have grown accustomed to drawing funds from EU resources (from Germany & UK).  Greece is bankrupt, Italy is heading for bankruptcy, Spain and France are badly in need of a Margaret Thatcher before they too completely sink. A lot of the other EU members are either economically weak or are too small economies to be significant. With only Germany that is strong there's going to be a lot of rancour about finance. The EU cannot survive the departure of the UK for all that long.

In the long term the collapse of the EU will be good for the likes of France, Spain, Italy and Greece. They will all have to learn to stand on their own feet without recourse to charity.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 11/27/2018 at 6:59 PM, Marina Schwarz said:

I seriously doubt Germany is trying to turn anyone else into itself. it would be idiotic.

Uh....2 world wars?

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

Well, they weren't trying to turn the rest of the world into Germans, emphatically in some cases. But from a certain angle I have to agree with your point.