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Why Oil is Falling (including conspiracy theories and other fun stuff)

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(edited)

15 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

Anybody want to take a guess what my hope is for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2019?  

Just a wild guess?

Anyone?

We had a competition for PoO in December but the base assumptions changed overnight when Trump backed off on Iranian sanctions. Predicting next year is so far away as to be lucky dip you cannot base any assumptions on anything currently visible as Trump could do anything and totally change the base case of any assumption.

Edited by jaycee
typos

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The real question is what is the OPEC going to do...not Trump...we already know that Trump is going to produce and sell oil at very large scale. Unless he is kicked out of the WH.

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4 minutes ago, jaycee said:

We had a competition for PoO in December but the base assumptions changed overnight when Trump backed off on Iranain sanctions. Predicting next year is so far away as to be lucky dip you canot base any assumptions on anything currently visible as Trump could do anything and totally change the base case of any assumption.

 

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3 minutes ago, Specyoulator said:

The real question is what is the OPEC going to do...not Trump...we already know that Trump is going to produce and sell oil at very large scale. Unless he is kicked out of the WH.

What in our opinion is the reason for the fall from $80 to $60? Trump or OPEC? OPEC are pretty obvious in what they want Trump doesn't know day to day what he wants. 

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On 12/3/2018 at 2:16 AM, Specyoulator said:

30 bucks

anybody remember this?

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Gee, marijuana legalisation at work:) 

Although above conspiracies may sound complex, fundamentally it’s a search for a simple explanation of a complex problem. Difference between simple and complex solution is that complex one tend to work...

I don’t pretend to understand everything Raoul Pal says in this interview but his theory of a strong dollar as a root cause of many troubles including oil price slide is the most plausible I’ve heard

Perhaps some may find conspiracy in USD rise:) 

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/tip256-macro-concerns-w-raoul-pal/

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