Oil Slide Worries Traders. *relax* This Should Get Sorted by Year End.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 minute ago, Illurion said:

You make me laugh...

You are writing that to me,  but are talking about yourself,  and you just do not see it.

I'm glad we are both having fun 🍺

[Illurion + 894]

12 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

I'm glad we are both having fun 🍺

True,  but i am tired and going to bed.

Good night.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Most of that is just bad policies - none of it science.  Like it or not science and medicine says that gender isn't binary.  I'm not much of a fan of gender transitioning procedures but physicians I know say that there is ample evidence that if they don't offer a "path forward" the patient will commit suicide.

Sex Reassignment Doesn’t Work. Here Is the Evidence.

[Razoo + 2]

On 1/4/2019 at 7:09 PM, mthebold said:

Trump's lies are public, obvious, and compulsive.  He also tends to be broadly correct on his narrative/direction while being wildly incorrect on specific details.  A chief executive's job is to lead, which requires narrative and direction.  Asking for low-level details from someone who leads an entire country is just pedantry. 

By contrast, the leftists tend to be the exact opposite: they use meticulously correct, carefully selected facts to build warped narratives.  This is subtle, and its subtlety makes it incredibly dangerous.  E.g. I had the opportunity to watch CNN news reports on Iraq as I fought there.  They were perfectly factual, yet the narrative they spun left out key context and details.  Their reports were intentionally misleading, resulting in the death of innocents and combatants alike. 

I would argue Trump is a good man with bad optics while his opponents are wolves in sheep's clothing.  Don't fear the loudmouth; fear the refined sociopath. 

Argue all you want. I do not agree that he is broadly correct on much, maybe a few things, and what is “narrative and direction” please elaborate.

 

It is not about a calculating loudmouth, it is about a rude impetuous unethical liar. The art of the deal is nothing more than bait and switch. When he made his pitch for the border wall under the pitiful guise of a press conference he looked like a bald white supremacist in a wig. He is currently using the government shut down as a bargaining chip to the detriment of the USA and the individuals who keep it working, all for something that is probably a waste of money.

 

 If he was threatened with a BB gun he would undoubtably use his family as human shields. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 11/26/2018 at 3:49 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

If anybody here hasn't heard my hundreds of ad nauseum comments this entire dang year about my hope for $65 oil [Brent] for 2018 and my hope for $70 oil [Brent] for 2019, please raise your hand, and I can reiterate yet again.

Meanwhile, I'll gently remind that I already warned repeatedly this year that $80 is simply not sustainable, and that the higher that oil goes above $70 then the harder the eventual crash would likely be.

And over to the news, would everyone kindly lay off guzzling the pots of coffee and stop artificially panicking.  Near as I can tell, $70 - ish oil for 2019 still seems about the right balance between the global economy and oil producers.  I hope the current over-reaction on the oil price See Saw will settle back to around $70 by end of this year or early next year.  Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

^ that was my comment 6 weeks ago.

Today's news:

Oil Enters Bull Market As Shorts Are Wiped Out

“‘Sentiment went from completely negative a couple of weeks ago to very positive right now,” said Matt Sallee, a portfolio manager who helps oversee $16 billion in energy assets for Kansas-based Tortoise.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

And more updates this morning...

There Is Still Room To Run For Oil Prices

"The oil market looks to be broadly balanced in 2019, an improvement on 2018 which turned out oversupplied,” Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote in a note. “This supports a partial oil price recovery.”

The investment bank says that the plunge in oil prices has “overshot,” with the selloff having been magnified in December due to the global financial turmoil.

[Razoo + 2]

On 12/23/2018 at 4:50 PM, Illurion said:

True.

One of the reasons i trust Trump is that he is already a Billionaire,  and he cannot be bought.

So many others i cannot say the same about.

So,  when it comes to WHO Trump does the right thing for,  i tend to think it is for WE AMERICANS,  or for HIS FAMILY.

I believe like most people,  he would do most anything for his kids.

It appears Putin has bought Trump and it is difficult for me to trust anyone who who lies many times in excess of 100 times per day.

 

On 1/8/2019 at 10:05 PM, mthebold said:

An example of "narrative an direction": border control.  As I see it, illegal immigration and unsecured borders are bad for the US.  Trump does as well for the same general reasons.  That's narrative.  We both think the border needs to be controlled by some means.  That's direction.

Narrative and direction contrast with details.  I don't particularly care what details Trump gets wrong in his speeches, how he sells his ideas to the public, or what the "wall" ends up looking like.  All that matters to me is that borders are controlled and illegals disappear from my country.  I'm sure you've been employed at some point and, therefore, understand that your boss doesn't want all the details; he just wants the job done.  As a voter, I hire the chief executive to handle details and report results.  That is the extent of my concern with the issue. 

Would it be nice to have a more "presidential" president?  Sure - but none of the other applicants offered to get the job done.  In the absence of alternatives, I'm perfectly content to ignore methods.

 Thank you for your prompt and respectful response. Of coarse I agree with you, as does the rest of the country, that “illegal immigration and unsecured borders are bad for the US”,  but if you think a wall or just throwing money at the situation is going to totally make “illegals disappear” or solve any of the other many border problems then you are the dreamer. Obviously we have been attempting to secure the borders since our inception and it is very possible that the current ‘war on drugs and imigration systems’ can be improved upon. I believe that most of the problems are caused by corruption on both sides of the border. Solutions for the drug problems, for example, seem similar to the solutions for Prohibition. 

However, that is about all I agree with.

I do not agree that Trump’s wall solution is the best answer. 

I do believe there are better uses for the time, resources and money. 

I don’t agree that there are not suitable alternatives.

Yes it would be nice to have a diplomatic, eloquent and well mannered president that didn’t alienate our allies and enemies alike. In reality being presidential isn’t that important to me, but I am not “perfectly content to ignore methods” especially if they are unethical and or illegal.

 

I want a president with a strong moral compass and is not a compulsive and constant liar. There is no way to trust or work with someone like this. He blatantly and unethically lies to get what he wants. He lies about his lies. It is a matter of character. I would not want a boss that acted like Trump whom does not seem to know the difference between right and wrong. Need I mention the many perfectly qualified people who served in his short administration, now gone, that would certainly agree with me? Sadly I would not have a friend or marry someone like our president.

 

More on topic for this forum... 

He wants to keep the price of oil artificially low and recently implemented policies to this end. 

Please forgive my rant I mean no offense to you. I appreciate your thoughtful reply and genuinely respect your views and opinions.

[cbrasher1 + 272]

6 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

And more updates this morning...

There Is Still Room To Run For Oil Prices

"The oil market looks to be broadly balanced in 2019, an improvement on 2018 which turned out oversupplied,” Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote in a note. “This supports a partial oil price recovery.”

The investment bank says that the plunge in oil prices has “overshot,” with the selloff having been magnified in December due to the global financial turmoil.

Read this and the previous article you mentioned up a couple posts among the political jibberish.  Your thoughts on WTI gains? I see it slowly continuing to uptick, still hoping for 65-70 balance price for 2019, I know it's just a bit overshot on your price predictions.  Baby steps Permian...baby steps 😂😂 @Tom Kirkman

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

14 minutes ago, cbrasher1 said:

Read this and the previous article you mentioned up a couple posts among the political jibberish.  Your thoughts on WTI gains? I see it slowly continuing to uptick, still hoping for 65-70 balance price for 2019, I know it's just a bit overshot on your price predictions.  Baby steps Permian...baby steps 😂😂 @Tom Kirkman

I can't see WTI sustaining at $65, which was my longstanding hope from last year.  WTI insists on shooting itself in the foot by overproducing.  Whenever WTI gets around $50 or so, there is a mad rush for everyone to ramp up WTI production all at once, all at the same time.  

So I see WTI self-limiting to a price rollercoaster this year, probably with the median average of around $50 or so, regardless of Brent.

$50 seems to be the self-imposed trigger for WTI:

● Above $50, WTI producers all go fricking apesh*t crazy and overproduce.  Dragging down their own WTI prices.

● Below $50, WTI producers reluctantly scale back activities, hampered by the self-imposed millstone hanging around their necks of previous debt. This reduces the overproduction, and gradually pushes WTI prices back up.

● Lather, rinse, repeat.  Empty gun by shooting footbullets, reload gun, aim for the other foot.

I really don't see the WTI rollercoaster median moving too far for long from that self-imposed median trigger point of roughly $50.

By all means, please feel free to convince me otherwise.  This is simply my observations and conclusions.  I certainly can't control it. 

Reinstating the Texas Railroad Commission would probably be a good idea, but with so many Americans convinced that "energy independence" is within its grasp (it actually is not) then it seems unlikely to resurrect the old Texas RR commission in order to herd these wild cats and restore a semblance of order.

Brent seems to me fairly likely to average somewhere around $70 - ish this year, as I've been hoping for and harping about since early last year.  Kindly note my hope for $70 Brent this year is a *hope* and not a *prediction*.  That number just seems to me to be the best sustainable, relative balance between oil producers and oil consumers.  Happily, quite a few professional oil analysts now seem to agree with what I have been commenting ad nauseum for dang near a year, that $65 -$70 Brent seems suitable and expected.

Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

[NWMan + 89]

It is rude to build a wall.  Is Trump not a big enough of a deterrent himself?

[Rodent + 1,424]

21 minutes ago, NWMan said:

It is rude to build a wall.  Is Trump not a big enough of a deterrent himself?

is it rude to put a door on my house? is it rude to shore up the entrances to schools? is it rude to make people jump through hoops such as metal detectors to get into an airport? it's just security.

it's not rude, it's just business. one could argue the pros and cons of building a wall and financing it, but I'm not sure that the rudeness factor should play into anything.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

5 hours ago, NWMan said:

It is rude to build a wall.  Is Trump not a big enough of a deterrent himself?

 

4 hours ago, Rodent said:

is it rude to put a door on my house? is it rude to shore up the entrances to schools? is it rude to make people jump through hoops such as metal detectors to get into an airport? it's just security.

it's not rude, it's just business. one could argue the pros and cons of building a wall and financing it, but I'm not sure that the rudeness factor should play into anything.

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

6 hours ago, NWMan said:

It is rude to build a wall.  Is Trump not a big enough of a deterrent himself?

 

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

^ that is Senator Chuck Schumer on the left.

 

 

NBC Meet the Press November 11, 2012 episode.  The video was recently disabled, but note this bit from the transcript:

=============================

SEN. SCHUMER:  Yeah, I think so.  Senator Graham and I have talked, and we are resuming the talks that were broken off two years ago.  We had put together a comprehensive, detailed blueprint on immigration reform.  It had the real potential for bipartisan support based on the theory that most Americans are for legal immigration but very much against illegal immigration.  Our plan just to be quick does four things.  First of all, close the border, make sure that’s shut.  Second, make sure that there is a non-forgeable document so that employers can tell who was legal and who was illegal. And once they hire someone illegally, throw the book at them.  Third, on legal immigr-- that will stop illegal immigration in its tracks.  Third, on legal immigration, let in the people we need, whether they be engineers from our universities, foreign or people to pick the crops.  And fourth, a path to citizenship that’s fair, which says you have to learn English, you have to go to the back of the line, you’ve got to have a job and you can’t commit crimes.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/49778339/ns/meet_the_press-transcripts/t/november-chuck-schumer-tom-coburn-joaquin-castro-steve-schmidt-doris-kearns-goodwin-bob-woodward-andrea-mitchell-chuck-todd-jim-cramer/

[Illurion + 894]

9 hours ago, NWMan said:

It is rude to build a wall.  Is Trump not a big enough of a deterrent himself?

?

I disagree.

The facts do support that a wall will work VERY WELL.

Silly to say is rude..!.

Is it rude for me to have a privacy fence ?

a front door ?

 

there is an old saying  "GOOD FENCES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS"...

 

We need the wall.

Israel's wall stops 99.9%.

[Illurion + 894]

On 1/8/2019 at 10:19 PM, Razoo said:

Argue all you want. I do not agree that he is broadly correct on much, maybe a few things, and what is “narrative and direction” please elaborate.

 

It is not about a calculating loudmouth, it is about a rude impetuous unethical liar. The art of the deal is nothing more than bait and switch. When he made his pitch for the border wall under the pitiful guise of a press conference he looked like a bald white supremacist in a wig. He is currently using the government shut down as a bargaining chip to the detriment of the USA and the individuals who keep it working, all for something that is probably a waste of money.

 

 If he was threatened with a BB gun he would undoubtably use his family as human shields. 

i disagree with every single point you have made.

[NWMan + 89]

On ‎1‎/‎12‎/‎2019 at 12:49 AM, Illurion said:

?

I disagree.

The facts do support that a wall will work VERY WELL.

Silly to say is rude..!.

Is it rude for me to have a privacy fence ?

a front door ?

 

there is an old saying  "GOOD FENCES MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS"...

 

We need the wall.

Israel's wall stops 99.9%.

The general narrative from America to Mexico is rude.  To announce a wall without some form of agreement with Mexico is rude, to say constantly that Mexico will pay for it is rude, to then claim they have already paid for it during trade negotiations is rude.  To use Israel's disgraceful wall as an example is rude. 

It is important in life as an individual and a nation not to be rude.  Ask your Mexican friends if they think America has been rude.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 hours ago, NWMan said:

The general narrative from America to Mexico is rude.  To announce a wall without some form of agreement with Mexico is rude, to say constantly that Mexico will pay for it is rude, to then claim they have already paid for it during trade negotiations is rude.  To use Israel's disgraceful wall as an example is rude. 

It is important in life as an individual and a nation not to be rude.  Ask your Mexican friends if they think America has been rude.

A wall is "rude"?  That's your argument?  Really?

Illegal immigration, human trafficking and drug trafficking is far more "rude" and illegal than a wall.

[NWMan + 89]

11 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

A wall is "rude"?  That's your argument?  Really?

Illegal immigration, human trafficking and drug trafficking is far more "rude" and illegal than a wall.

You are correct people involved in drug trafficking and human trafficking are "more rude" than the American president, however his actions are still rude and disrespectful to Mexico.  He is obviously setting a high standard for himself soaring like a eagle above the moral standards of drug trafficker.

[JoMack + 549]

On RBG, it's time she go gracefully out into the world like Sandra Day O'Conner.  Dying in office is not a good way to end your career.

[Steve Pipkin + 7]

Tom mentioned that reinstatement of the full authority of the RRC would provide discipline for the short sighted shale producers. A problem with the RRC is that in the past the commission has run interference for E&Ps in disputes with leaseholders over royalty payments; making it more costly for leaseholders to contest payments. 

[NWMan + 89]

 What happened the RRC?

[Illurion + 894]

22 hours ago, NWMan said:

The general narrative from America to Mexico is rude.  To announce a wall without some form of agreement with Mexico is rude, to say constantly that Mexico will pay for it is rude, to then claim they have already paid for it during trade negotiations is rude.  To use Israel's disgraceful wall as an example is rude. 

It is important in life as an individual and a nation not to be rude.  Ask your Mexican friends if they think America has been rude.

You are delusional.

What America builds on America's side of the border is none of Mexico's business.

America does not need Mexico's permission to do anything...

Nor do we have to discuss it with them...

 

As for what the Mexicans think of Americans,  as Rhett Butler said to Scarlet Ohara in  "Gone With The Wind",   "Frankly My Dear,  I Don't Give A Damn."

 

When i replaced my chain link fence with a Privacy Fence decades ago,  do you actually think i went next door and asked my neighbors for their permission ?

NO..   i didn't...  I just started building it one Saturday afternoon...

 

And do you know what my neighbors response was ?

Two of them came over and helped me build it,  and within the year,  i was helping them install theirs ...!

 

I'll bet you 10 bucks that within 5 years of us finishing the "GREAT WALL OF THE AMERICAS",  that Mexico will be trying to get us to build a wall for them on their Southern border.

And no doubt silly people like you will be telling us we are somehow "obligated" to do it....

 

Wake up...

[NWMan + 89]

1 hour ago, Illurion said:

You are delusional

You are delusional. rude

What America builds on America's side of the border is none of Mexico's business. - rude

America does not need Mexico's permission to do anything...correct but rude

Nor do we have to discuss it with them...rude

 

As for what the Mexicans think of Americans,  as Rhett Butler said to Scarlet Ohara in  "Gone With The Wind",   "Frankly My Dear,  I Don't Give A Damn." - rude

 

When i replaced my chain link fence with a Privacy Fence decades ago,  do you actually think i went next door and asked my neighbors for their permission ?

NO..   i didn't...  I just started building it one Saturday afternoon...-rude

 

And do you know what my neighbors response was ?

Two of them came over and helped me build it,  - not rude

 

I'll bet you 10 bucks that within 5 years of us finishing the "GREAT WALL OF THE AMERICAS",  that Mexico will be trying to get us to build a wall for them on their Southern border. - delusional

And no doubt silly people like you will be telling us we are somehow "obligated" to do it....rude

 

Wake up...rude

No Mexican friends then!

Anyway we are miles away from the subject of oil and we obviously have different views on things

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, NWMan said:

rude

Illegal is far worse than "rude".

"In the last 7 years (in Texas), over 4,000 illegal aliens have been incarcerated for sexual assault. 62% of them are sexual assault against children."

- John Jones, Chief of the Intelligence Counter-terrorism Division with the Texas Dept. of Public Safety

Also: 

(Article written in 2010 but exact problem we have today only worse.)

 

‘’’Sheriff Paul Babau said he asked the Obama administration for 3,000 National Guard soldiers to patrol the border, but what he got were 15 signs.’’’

Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer condemned what she called the federal government’s ‘’’“continued failure to secure our international border,” saying the lack of security has resulted in important natural recreational areas in her state being declared too dangerous to visit.’’’

Gov. Brewer attacked the administration over the signs, calling them “an outrage” and ‘’’telling President Obama to “Do your job. Secure our borders.”’’’

 

T.J. Bonner, president of the National Border Patrol Council, which represents all 17,500 of the Border Patrol’s front-line agents, said areas well north of the border are so overrun by armed criminals that U.S. citizens are being warned to keep out of those locations.

[Illurion + 894]

4 hours ago, NWMan said:

You are delusional. rude

What America builds on America's side of the border is none of Mexico's business. - rude

America does not need Mexico's permission to do anything...correct but rude

Nor do we have to discuss it with them...rude

 

As for what the Mexicans think of Americans,  as Rhett Butler said to Scarlet Ohara in  "Gone With The Wind",   "Frankly My Dear,  I Don't Give A Damn." - rude

 

When i replaced my chain link fence with a Privacy Fence decades ago,  do you actually think i went next door and asked my neighbors for their permission ?

NO..   i didn't...  I just started building it one Saturday afternoon...-rude

 

And do you know what my neighbors response was ?

Two of them came over and helped me build it,  - not rude

 

I'll bet you 10 bucks that within 5 years of us finishing the "GREAT WALL OF THE AMERICAS",  that Mexico will be trying to get us to build a wall for them on their Southern border. - delusional

And no doubt silly people like you will be telling us we are somehow "obligated" to do it....rude

 

Wake up...rude

No Mexican friends then!

Anyway we are miles away from the subject of oil and we obviously have different views on things

The only mexicans i know are illegal aliens,  which is why i voted for Trump,  so we could get rid of them.

 

When i was boy,  my Father used to say:  "Son,  in life,  usually,  the first person to cry "Racism",  is the "Racist."

I suppose the same story goes for "Rudeness.",  ie:   The first person to cry RUDE,  is usually the RUDE one.

 

Have a nice day.