WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

now were almost at 52.4 where lots of stops are stationed and at 52.5 if they can take those prices out, then 53.3 is next. this setup just simplified everything, now when i look back at the old charts, i get an immediate migraine

Edited December 14, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

finally crashing, they really took their time, messing with traders today... lesson learned... patience

Truly there is nothing more wilder, faster, crazier, more manipulated than crude. This is like walking into tombstone into a gunfight with a knife.

last trade for today 2 shorts, will exit wherever it goes

Edited December 14, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

the trade of the day, just sorry i didnt short more

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

actually now short 4 average prices is 51.92

I know i said i had about 29 indicators i use depending on certain things.

So now i have a completely different setup with just 3 of the most important indicators, but its still price action behind the scenes with the indicators providing support for the trade

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

after seeing how crude moves this week, ive come to a realization, for most no matter what they study, they will never ever figure out crude, its way too fast and unpredictable. I see this from the 1 Bill dollar hedgefunds, to most analysts who always get it  wrong, down to the $500 account USOIL CFD day trader.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I am not sure if im a good trader or a risky trader. earlier i was up 4400, now only 2110. the thing is i have a target so i wait patiently for that target, sometimes a big profits ends up being very small. But if i dont do it, who will?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

my stops which i moved down from 52.3 are sitting at 51.8 for a long time, and they where not able to get to them. i have learned not to keep the stops to close to the action, because they will take you out with a smaller profit. Now my target for today is 50.50 so im waiting patiently. I just dont think they could push it below 50.2 so somehere there is my exit. just hope im right. earlier while the prices where retracing very fast, i did wonder if i was right. but prices are now jumping like 20cents in a split second, and really there is nothing like this in any other market. Not sure why it is so violent, but  if u can keep it under control, actually if you can keep you emotions under control, there are big monies to be made.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so i now realize not because im greedy , but we could hit under 50. My new laptop isnt 4k, its fdd, so when i connect it to a 4k monitor, the resolution is not that clear. So now we need to get a 4k laptop, which start at 1.2k, about 400 more than one i just got today. this one is like 10 x faster than my old laptop, but i need 4k to see the charts as clear as possible. Just letting u guys know in case ur are looking for that edge.

But as im trading crude im beginning to realize all its secrets and how to trade it the correct way. It it very complicated but for me not risky at all, since im expecting lots of things to happen and they usually do.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[A/Plague + 50]

On 11/30/2018 at 11:46 PM, aakash kapoor said:

Hasn't trading become easier lately with almost correct predictions about the oil ? We know, ultimately oil will fall for some weeks, so, even if there is a bounce, you know that you've to wait for the downward movement to start and place a short.

Was Crude always this predictable or we have better traders and analysts in this community forum ? 

Edited December 17, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

crude is and will be impossible to trade for most, the wild moves and swings are not   tradable, unless you really know what you are doing, a fantastic system that works, u know how people get played, and you are patient. I would to see, 1 person here call out a trade, fake or real, and lets see how much profit they can close. So far yet to see anyone here, besides myself call out trades and show open trades.

Im not saying this to show how smart i am, but only to advise you against ever trading crude, this is certainly not for everyone, people have lost 100s of millions, as well wells as 1000s, i see smart traders in other markets, trade crude with terrible results, i mean completely miserable results. what works in other markets, could work in crude, but u better be fast like a lightning.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

in the beg i thought i could teach you guys what i learnt, but there is no way to teach this, basically a newbie opening a new acct with 4k, it guaranteed to blow up that same day. you can take that to the bank.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so from what i see its best to simply exit positions lunchtime after that it could move again, but from what i see, its a waste of time

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/14/2018 at 12:15 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

crude is and will be impossible to trade for most, the wild moves and swings are not   tradable, unless you really know what you are doing, a fantastic system that works, u know how people get played, and you are patient. I would to see, 1 person here call out a trade, fake or real, and lets see how much profit they can close. So far yet to see anyone here, besides myself call out trades and show open trades.

Im not saying this to show how smart i am, but only to advise you against ever trading crude, this is certainly not for everyone, people have lost 100s of millions, as well wells as 1000s, i see smart traders in other markets, trade crude with terrible results, i mean completely miserable results. what works in other markets, could work in crude, but u better be fast like a lightning.

Edited December 17, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Oil is not easier not for most. Many many times i will be up 5k 6k, 10 min later im up 1.2k. Had i first had a loss, imagine the pain. No oil is the fastest thing going, you need to have a super system to trade it, as opposed to trading eminis ym, forex which really u can teach an 80 year old. Now the losses or profits are fast super fast, and making 3 - 5k a day not that hard, if you know, but most will never have a clue, its way beyond what is taught out there, or what you could figure out. YOu either need to be on the inside, or be able to trade with the inside. 

The inside knows all the stops, what trades are comming down, and can acct accordingly you as a trader dont have that advantage, so you ar trying to make money, trading in the dark.

Just remember this number, 42.

[A/Plague + 50]

2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Oil is not easier not for most. Many many times i will be up 5k 6k, 10 min later im up 1.2k. Had i first had a loss, imagine the pain. No oil is the fastest thing going, you need to have a super system to trade it, as opposed to trading eminis ym, forex which really u can teach an 80 year old. Now the losses or profits are fast super fast, and making 3 - 5k a day not that hard, if you know, but most will never have a clue, its way beyond what is taught out there, or what you could figure out. YOu either need to be on the inside, or be able to trade with the inside. 

The inside knows all the stops, what trades are comming down, and can acct accordingly you as a trader dont have that advantage, so you ar trying to make money, trading in the dark.

Just remember this number, 42. 

I have no time and no reason to memorize any numbers. if I see goals within the current consolidation, I can see goals in global movements. you cannot define targets at short intervals, respectively, your system is flawed. Currently 42 is a dummy. Although someday the price to fall there certainly. But it is not relevant now even for you because you are afraid to hold the position SELL to this goal ....

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Oil is not easier not for most. Many many times i will be up 5k 6k, 10 min later im up 1.2k. Had i first had a loss, imagine the pain. No oil is the fastest thing going, you need to have a super system to trade it, as opposed to trading eminis ym, forex which really u can teach an 80 year old. Now the losses or profits are fast super fast, and making 3 - 5k a day not that hard, if you know, but most will never have a clue, its way beyond what is taught out there, or what you could figure out. YOu either need to be on the inside, or be able to trade with the inside. 

The inside knows all the stops, what trades are comming down, and can acct accordingly you as a trader dont have that advantage, so you ar trying to make money, trading in the dark.

Just remember this number, 42.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

indeed  42 is not for daytrading, just a number i think will eventually will hit. but you are very smart in understanding that you dont just go short if you know crude will eventually break 50 again and head down.

Now i will say this, you could pick up 200 here and there just scalping, u need to be good but not that good. what im saying is picking up the big moves, requires lots of skill, since the volatil will most likely take you out 20 times before it lets yo win.

so my advice for you aPlaque is try and go for small busts. i will say i do it too, and many times i have profits of 160, 200, 400, but its because i see a reversal, i never enter a trade to target 200, if i did, i would be in and out probably 20 times a day. not my style, but its possible.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

aPlaque i can you trade the cfds from your posts. so here is something than can help you, but you need to be very fast.

Please write this down, since it may be hard to find this post later.

cfds will move way before the futures contract. in cfds there is no leeway for arbitrage it all taken care of by the brokers. So should you one day decide to trade futures, 4500 per contract, when you see on mt4 the cfds moves say 20 cents ahead of the futures, simply buy the futures and wait for them to reach the cfd prices.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

good news.

after a long while of looking into how much  the requirements are from the fx brokers for trading the wti cfd here is what i found. Since i asked here in the forum, but noone told me, which might mean to me, noone here is trading contracts or cfds, but just maybe options.

So it seems with their margin you only need $13 for 1 contract, as opposed to $4500 for a futures contract.

One day i will give it a try, but that means you only need $130 to trade 10 contracts. So if I open a 2k acct that leaves me plenty of cushion, and should i just catch a 1$ move that would be 10k in profits. But for now will stick with futures.

https://docs.fxcorporate.com/MMR-100-ltd-en.pdf

[A/Plague + 50]

10 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

aPlaque i can you trade the cfds from your posts. so here is something than can help you, but you need to be very fast.

Please write this down, since it may be hard to find this post later.

cfds will move way before the futures contract. in cfds there is no leeway for arbitrage it all taken care of by the brokers. So should you one day decide to trade futures, 4500 per contract, when you see on mt4 the cfds moves say 20 cents ahead of the futures, simply buy the futures and wait for them to reach the cfd prices.

well .... anyone can become a millionaire in one day ... i think that you already have them on this strategy? With such a strategy, any hedge fund will kiss your feet :))))

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

they dont need to kiss my feet. but i would like to fill a need, only because i just dont see any competition. Say if all the oll hedgefunds had a clue i wouldnt have a chance, due to not having any connections to large aum.

But from seeing one fund lose 500 mill 2 years ago, and another big one already down 200 mill, i expect their losses to  get upto 400 mill, i dont see any competition. And had i been available for them, i could have saved them big losses. So its not that oh ill make lots of money, it is just that i want to fill a need for investors who would like to diversify, without loosing their shirts or more again. Imagine had i been a hedgefund, i would already have swallowed up their losses and since trading is a zero sum game, all you need to do is take the other side of even the 1%, who from what i see, also dont have a clue like the 99%. Its like if no one knows how to build an electric bike, and you do, why not share your knowledge with the people who need an electric bike. And same goes for the stock market and gold and silver market, its obvious from seeing prev hedgefunds lose millions on wrong trades such as in gold and silver or in shorting tesla from 60 until it went up to 400, or going long jcp went it was another kmart, that there is a need for someone to come in and sweep up their losses, and share those gains with potential smart investors Some cos i think will go down seriously only in a matter of time, is fb, netflix possibly twitter.tsla etc. appl i already mentioned when it was 220 couple months ago that it was going down today its about 165 or so. I dont pay much attention to stocks, but once in a while i give them a quick glance, especially if someone gives me a call to take a look at some  stock they believe is seriously undervalued.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

indeed. you see trading swing is very easy for me. that is not what im a here for, i showed you the 76 short back in october which all of you doubted since you where all waiting for 80,  then as it went down, everyone kept saying, now it will bounce and it didnt bounce until about 55, and then 50. So lots of red for most bottom fishters, this is usually what happens.

I only came here to develop my intraday startegy, which i almost gave up on a couple of times, when i saw how fast crude moves, only after a couple of weeks did i get better and better, unitl i finally mastered day trading crude. Most say this was my hardest challenge ever.

Based on the system i have developed, im only looking for the big move, i think its impossible for most to figure out when and how the big move happens daily. What daytraders can figure out, is sometimes catching small random moves of 20 cents or 30 cents, that is scalping and indeed if you do some work, you could come up with a low risk scalp technique. But since im mostly a swing trader, i look for the intraday swing trade, not the small random moves, of which i would say there are 30 a day, i think most daytrades falll in the range of trying to quickly capture random moves with tight stops.

The reason i like the swing moves, is that is easy to then scale in, once you are on the right track, with random moves, since there is always a big likelyhood of losing 300 before making 300, i couldnt trade in multiples.

So having said that, when certain things happen the move is on, this is all im focused on.

The moves sometimes starts in asian sometimes uk and sometimes us, you just need to know what to look for, and its not an indicator.

To me this was a challenge i thought not possible, but lately I have been very accurate, realizing way before the move how it would come about, my targets sometimes are greedy, but at least it almost gets there.

One thing is clear, if you try breakouts or momentum I would suggest you  never to trade crude, stick to something easy like trading big cap stocks, where if you are wrong in most cases the losses wont be devastating immediately like it is with crude.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

nother instrument i have been tracking is gas, i saw it went up 100% very recently, that was an easy long but i try not to play 2 energies at the same time, from what i understand many accounts blew up, since traders figured if oil was going down, then gas was too. Boy where they wrong.i saw on friday that thing dropped 7%, unreal.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Friday i had the stop at 52.8 and they didnt take it, now i understand how to place the stops, its a key concept when trading crude, if u dont use a stop they will get you, and when they do, it wont be a small loss but your acccount. also once you use your stop, especially say you entered a short at 52. you stops say was 52.3. now price is at 51.5 so you move your stop to 52, that way the chance of you losing, are kind of slm. Now i have heard of some traders using a 10 cent stop, not for me.

Edited December 16, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[A/Plague + 50]

20 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Friday i had the stop at 52.8 and they didnt take it, now i understand how to place the stops, its a key concept when trading crude, if u dont use a stop they will get you, and when they do, it wont be a small loss but your acccount. also once you use your stop, especially say you entered a short at 52. you stops say was 52.3. now price is at 51.5 so you move your stop to 52, that way the chance of you losing, are kind of slm. Now i have heard of some traders using a 10 cent stop, not for me.

when in cabbage oil uncertainty you can shred both for gas and forex ... work and everything will work out

 

Edited December 17, 2018 by A/Plague