WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

in trading once you learn to go with the flow, even if it doesn't make sense to you, you might have found the way to zen

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so as i said i really don't have more than a couple of months trading crude probably a 20th of most of you.

1] Trading crude long-term or swing is a piece of cake if you have an aptitude better than most for charts. That will put you in the 1%, well beyond even hedge funds.

2] Daytrading now that is a different animal. This requires even more charting abilities and requires an immense amount of gaming theory knowledge and correct application, and also an immense aptitude for timing. But even a Ph.D. in math won't help you in crude. Of course its possible to catch 10 cent moves by correct guessing.

So sometimes day-trading is easy, but to be consistent, that really requires a lot of work.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well, i was wrong. OPEC cuts and China deal moved the prices down. very bearish. 

I thought today's news would break my negative bias, well the news almost did, the price action didn't. So back to the charts, they still show a lot more selling and a bearish outlook.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so 48.5 now, worth it for a long entry. They may try for 50+ later. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

It's quite interesting when I said to go long at 48.5 most where shorting then and all the way up to 49.80. then in the high 49.50s, they started going long. best to exit the 48.50 long here at 49.7. I won't be giving any more trades. or thoughts. I don't have time

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

my trades will never be in agreement with most, and I don't have time to explain myself

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

gd must have heard my prayers since right after I said I couldn't find anyone worthwhile, I called an expert forex trader I had known last year. And he gave me someone to look at.

I can learn a lot from him to better myself. One day will meet up with him in person. currently long 3 up 510. I kind of use similar techniques to what he is writing about, but he has a slightly different angle,  this guy is out of Wisconsin, only found him from an expert forex trader, but the stuff he writes about is way beyond what most traders will ever understand, or at least will use. And I'm guessing most will laugh at it, or find it too time-consuming. I already like his ideas, though i need to subscribe to some fancy analysis tool, to get to the same conclusions as he does. But most of it i can come up with on my charts, by doing the programs myself.

since nobody cares about what I say, as you mentioned and many others before you, There is no need for me to mention about this person.

I am guessing he is not looking for any attention, as he trades his own ideas, in a very big way. And is just looking for other like-minded traders to discuss ideas with, and he said maybe partner with in the future if he finds they understand how to trade. He even gave me a 1-month free trial. up 540 as of this post, and i hadn't even planned on trading until much later.

[catch22 + 244]

On 1/8/2019 at 10:39 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Well, i was wrong. OPEC cuts and China deal moved the prices down. very bearish. 

I thought today's news would break my negative bias, well the news almost did, the price action didn't. So back to the charts, they still show a lot more selling and a bearish outlook.

Bearish huh? Tiny little pull back and you think its all over, now its way up...

Didnt miss anything here, same old same old from JJ...

[Illurion + 894]

16 minutes ago, ATK. said:

Haha yeah oil price is still a joke, we've been having a good laugh over at reddit over all the garbage articles that get posted by this site.

Just a bunch of no name bloggers that constantly get their facts wrong

Alright mods you can ban this account now, I'll be back with another account to shit talk in the future 😂😂😂

Or,

Better yet,

You could keep using this account,   

and actually start posting actual REAL information on this site,

and be USEFUL,

rather than just a jerk with no sense of humor....

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i have no reason to come here, basically like i said i come in once a while now, but not to show off or anything like that. I am where I want to be in trading, way beyond my fondest dreams, since no one listens to what I have to say anyways like many here mention, I have no reason to come and post, except when i feel like it. 

I my last 3 months i have gathered a wealth of information, about the inside workings of the average day trader, this has been information which is very useful in understanding why in most cases they will usually trade in the wrong direction. There are books written about this, where i believe they summarize this correctly. But for me, it was an eye-opener to see it daily first hand. Probably if you are a day trader you fancy yourself not to be amongst that crowd, but you take 200 traders in one crowd, most with flamboyant egos, amazing how many think exactly the same, due to flawed trading constructs. Will never change.

Now the longer term trader doesn't fall into this category of trading, and many times can make money, like many traders i spoke to here, have indeed shown me. And this day trading mentality will be a continued area of interest that will fascinate me into the future. What is interesting to me, is that when you point this out to a day trader, they will start saying bad things about you, and try to denounce you right away, such that happened here many times. 

Whatever you do, good luck, and be careful out there.

[catch22 + 244]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Now the longer term trader doesn't fall into this category of trading, and many times can make money, like many traders i spoke to here, have indeed shown me. And this day trading mentality will be a continued area of interest that will fascinate me into the future. What is interesting to me, is that when you point this out to a day trader, they will start saying bad things about you, and try to denounce you right away, such that happened here many times. 

 

Now there you go talking yourself around in circles again JJ!

On the previous page i asked you why you didnt short from your call at $50.6 and ride it all the way down for long term trade and you said " No no no, thats what hedge funds do..."

And everything you have posted up until this point pertaining to your hypothetical trades - its all day trading! You never hold more than 24hrs...

So what are you, a hypocrite or a liar? it can only be one or the other...

Still not 1 screen shot of your trade history log or anything like that to back up 1 iota of anything you have ever put on this forum!

I have always known you are a shill...

Edited January 10, 2019 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i can certainly feel your frustration. if i continuously start posting my trades, then people will understand my system.

Today first time every, i have picked my entry and the stop, and the order is now wating. will see if i can trade not being there at the time of placement. Something i ahve been wanted to do for a long time, but didnt have enough confidence to do yet. There is always a first. This will probably define how i trade in the future, this way i just need 30 min a day to focus before placing a set of trades, and hen later if ii dont get stopped out, to figure out where to exit, which i usually know at the time i place the trade.

 

Trading is now getting more and more fun by the day.

[A/Plague + 50]

16 hours ago, catch22 said:

Now there you go talking yourself around in circles again JJ!

On the previous page i asked you why you didnt short from your call at $50.6 and ride it all the way down for long term trade and you said " No no no, thats what hedge funds do..."

And everything you have posted up until this point pertaining to your hypothetical trades - its all day trading! You never hold more than 24hrs...

So what are you, a hypocrite or a liar? it can only be one or the other...

Still not 1 screen shot of your trade history log or anything like that to back up 1 iota of anything you have ever put on this forum!

I have always known you are a shill...

be indulgent ... everyone who trades has gone through this ... an occasional successful suggestion to many newcomers is dizzy ... they think that the market is at their feet

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

next week ill give you guys a target, let me know if it goes there. don't want to give it out now. Because if it goes 2 cents against me you will say I was wrong, so i will wait until i see the price head to the max opposite direction before i post the target, fair enough.

[catch22 + 244]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

next week ill give you guys a target, let me know if it goes there. don't want to give it out now. Because if it goes 2 cents against me you will say I was wrong, so i will wait until i see the price head to the max opposite direction before i post the target, fair enough.

Whats the point? making abitrary calls doesnt mean you can trade because the exact timing and entries/ exits are crucial to a successful trade. If you simply throw out a target or a price - you can simply wait till it gets there and say hey look how good i am. But is doesnt mean anything because its very important the timing you opened the position, level of risk you took and how much drawdown you tolerated before the trade comes into profit or loss. Thats where the emotions take over- when the trade goes bad and you either stop out early when you could have waited, or waited too long and took a heavy loss when you should have stopped out early. See you dont seem to know any of this JJ - this is why i dont beleive anything you say because this is all cut and dried stuff for a real trader - we take these risks everyday and know what the implications are.

I have a better idea - why dont you post a screen shot of your position after you open it so the price you opened is shown on the chart, and the number of positions and their locations also if more than 1. Then post another screen shot after you close them showing your PnL in pips or ticks etc. You can scratch out the lot sizes and dollar values and account numbers if you dont wanna show your $$$ values for personal reasons- i can understand that. But you should show everything else if you dont have anything to hide and want people to take you seriously or actually prove anything about what you say... This is standard practice in many of the other trading forums i visit - we all show our positions on the chart, some show their entire trading history in all its glory including wins and losses such as myfxbook and places like that. You could do the same if you wanted to, anonymously or not. But you have shown absolutely nothing, just blown alot of hot air around oilprice.com and polluted the forum with totes about how wonderful you are or how easy it is. This also points to a fraud - ive never met a real trader, no matter how successful they were, say it was easy. The only ones that say things like that- are fakes and wannabe`s...

Edited January 13, 2019 by catch22

[A/Plague + 50]

47 minutes ago, catch22 said:

Whats the point? making abitrary calls doesnt mean you can trade because the exact timing and entries/ exits are crucial to a successful trade. If you simply throw out a target or a price - you can simply wait till it gets there and say hey look how good i am. But is doesnt mean anything because its very important the timing you opened the position, level of risk you took and how much drawdown you tolerated before the trade comes into profit or loss. Thats where the emotions take over- when the trade goes bad and you either stop out early when you could have waited, or waited too long and took a heavy loss when you should have stopped out early. See you dont seem to know any of this JJ - this is why i dont beleive anything you say because this is all cut and dried stuff for a real trader - we take these risks everyday and know what the implications are.

I have a better idea - why dont you post a screen shot of your position after you open it so the price you opened is shown on the chart, and the number of positions and their locations also if more than 1. Then post another screen shot after you close them showing your PnL in pips or ticks etc. You can scratch out the lot sizes and dollar values and account numbers if you dont wanna show your $$$ values for personal reasons- i can understand that. But you should show everything else if you dont have anything to hide and want people to take you seriously or actually prove anything about what you say... This is standard practice in many of the other trading forums i visit - we all show our positions on the chart, some show their entire trading history in all its glory including wins and losses such as myfxbook and places like that. You could do the same if you wanted to, anonymously or not. But you have shown absolutely nothing, just blown alot of hot air around oilprice.com and polluted the forum with totes about how wonderful you are or how easy it is. This also points to a fraud - ive never met a real trader, no matter how successful they were, say it was easy. The only ones that say things like that- are fakes and wannabe`s...

catch22    Could you show links to resources about which you wrote?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I can tell you this though. Whereas months ago I only watched 2 or 3 traders here, now I am watching 100s, even some who are considered as best as you can get. I still have no access to institutional traders, but am able to figure out when they enter. It seems like when they short or go long, they seem to call the tops and bottom, so its something I'm using now to my advantage, and i can only see them trading very rarely during the day, in other words they hide their orders well. I have seen them enter 300 contracts or more, so a 20 cent move in their favor is 60k.

But truthfully, besides maybe 1 or 2 who are sometimes correct, most are wrong maybe 3 or 4 times in a row. And this has been a challenge for me to understand why. And I do understand why, the emotions of traders can't be in sync with the fast reversals we see in crude. And even the very very bright traders, for some reason they can never get it right. So  I don't blame their IQ, but the market takes them one way and they call it, then it reverses and they refuse to budge, or of they are smart and budge, then it reverses again and by then they give up, and end losing it.

Sometimes as you know crude can reverse quite often, it will make a bottom thrust up, getting everyone long, and again a down move. So plese don't kid yourself that you are one of those, who knows how to trade crude. Last week from talking to a top trader who i do think makes money occasionally, since i used the persons system and found it lacking, but  one of the tools that he uses, a certain chart co, charges $700 plus a month to use, i guess they are the only ones who you can rely on, as i said many chart co, have similar tools, but when you compare them its like comparing white and black. I always thought esignal was the most expensive co. out there. I will be getting a 1 mo trial next week, so will take a look. But one more pro trader who writes books, and has his own futures consultancy co, told me the same, to try them out.

I lately will stop watching what other traders do, for example before i knew what clg stood for, i watched one guy when i did forex, and i thought this guy was good, now that im watching only crude traders i have seen this guy again, and he will sometimes go short 5 or 6 times in a row in an up moving market, and many times this guy martingales being wrong for days in a row. And here back then when i had no clue what crude was, i thought this guy traidng that symbol was an expert.

But for me watching traders now, is really a waste of time, and you would be surprised how many dont want to know they are wrong ahead of time, seems like most traders have a big ego problem, and will eventually lead them down to ruin, And for me talking to people like that now, is really a big waste of my time.

[catch22 + 244]

And here it is hidden in the middle of his post;

2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

 Last week from talking to a top trader who i do think makes money occasionally, since i used the persons system and found it lacking, but  one of the tools that he uses, a certain chart co, charges $700 plus a month to use, i guess they are the only ones who you can rely on, as i said many chart co, have similar tools, but when you compare them its like comparing white and black. I always thought esignal was the most expensive co. out there. I will be getting a 1 mo trial next week, so will take a look. But one more pro trader who writes books, and has his own futures consultancy co, told me the same, to try them out.

Please contact JJ via PM. You can throw your money at him so he can sell you some useless information, sign you up to some loss making signal, or take passive commissions off your investment risk.

Your a shill JJ - plain and simple. The moderators here at oilprice.com should keep an eye on this - its commercial canvassing.

 

@A/Plague - www.myfxbook.com  - plenty to read thru it could take a lifetime... for other readers not familiar with this type of thing - myfxbook keeps open records of trader accounts so that you may see exactly what their trading history is - every position taken, won and lost. Successes and failures, with complete transparency, you cant hide the truth or make false claims. Typically what happens when a trader becomes unprofitable or blows up their account - they simply forget that one and start another one so that their past failures are not shown on their current account. So accounts that have a long history of success are much more telling than those that have a short history.

 

 

Edited January 13, 2019 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

indeed a good point, and myfx, i never use that or care about it. 

If you ever want to make 1 mill a year trading crude, you need to eventually manage money, you will never make large amounts trading your own capital. Assuming you know how to trade, you need a years track record. The first thing they look for is not what you think, its not how much money you made. It's you drawdown, so how much your account goes down peak to valley. In other words, you start with a 100k account, in one month you are down 10%, next 20% now you go back up, so your peak to valley is 30%. Basically, if your drawdown is more than 10%, you cant accumulate any serious capital. So I see lots of people who made 5% a month but have a 70% drawdown.

So if you want to get on the program and get money to trade, track your Sharpe ratio, if it's acceptable you will be easily able to attract capital. You can also try the Kelly rating. Either one with less than 10% dd, and say 3% a month ROI, will get you into lots of doors.

[A/Plague + 50]

18 hours ago, catch22 said:

And here it is hidden in the middle of his post;

Please contact JJ via PM. You can throw your money at him so he can sell you some useless information, sign you up to some loss making signal, or take passive commissions off your investment risk.

Your a shill JJ - plain and simple. The moderators here at oilprice.com should keep an eye on this - its commercial canvassing.

 

@A/Plague - www.myfxbook.com  - plenty to read thru it could take a lifetime... for other readers not familiar with this type of thing - myfxbook keeps open records of trader accounts so that you may see exactly what their trading history is - every position taken, won and lost. Successes and failures, with complete transparency, you cant hide the truth or make false claims. Typically what happens when a trader becomes unprofitable or blows up their account - they simply forget that one and start another one so that their past failures are not shown on their current account. So accounts that have a long history of success are much more telling than those that have a short history.

 

 

catch22

Thanks ... I looked at this resource. he is not very good to me. they show profitability there, I am interested in the beauty of the forecast and its implementation. I do not want any stupid dick to make money on my knowledge because he can pay :). . in order to write something there you need to do some sort of attachments to my terminal. I do not want to load my old laptop with such garbage and do not want someone to look into my program when I trade ... I even in my mt-4 every day delete the old logs, MQL-4 and all the other husks.

[catch22 + 244]

17 hours ago, A/Plague said:

catch22

Thanks ... I looked at this resource. he is not very good to me. they show profitability there, I am interested in the beauty of the forecast and its implementation. I do not want any stupid dick to make money on my knowledge because he can pay :). . in order to write something there you need to do some sort of attachments to my terminal. I do not want to load my old laptop with such garbage and do not want someone to look into my program when I trade ... I even in my mt-4 every day delete the old logs, MQL-4 and all the other husks.

google translate? is doing a very bad job of translating your native language to english - i find it very difficult to read and understand alot of the things you write

However if i understand you correctly - the main reason people link their account to myfxbook is for commercial purposes. They wish to share their profitability and track record to prove to investors that they are competent. This is usually done so that they may attract investors and of course make money from their strategy. There is little reason for an amateur trader to make a public account of their trading - other than perhaps bragging rights?

As to the security of your system and intellectual property, and as i said before to JJ - its extremely difficult, if not impossible to reverse engineer a strategy based on a trade history log. There is simply too many variables which can be input into the strategy to trigger a position entry and exit. Its far easier and cheaper to simply pay the fee or commission for receiving a signal to the rightful owner.

If you have a good system, then you can use a platform like myfxbook to show people how good it is in the form of your trading history log. From there you can open small things like PAMM trade copying managed accounts and earn a commission from investors or monthly subscription fees for your work. Some of the successful strategies are earing the owner $100k+ per month in commissions alone. Eventually it may lead to bigger things like your own private hedge fund etc. But without proof of a system`s or a strategy`s profitability, AND a well managed risk profile with moderate drawdowns, then you have little hope of gaining trust from serious investors.

This is why i encourage JJ to prove his claims - because without proof its all just meaningless hot air polluting the forum. JJ wont even post a screenshot nevermind publish a trade history log. I beleive its because he doesnt actually trade a real money account or is a shill for some sort of scam he wants people to contact him about.

 

[A/Plague + 50]

6 hours ago, catch22 said:

google translate? is doing a very bad job of translating your native language to english - i find it very difficult to read and understand alot of the things you write

However if i understand you correctly - the main reason people link their account to myfxbook is for commercial purposes. They wish to share their profitability and track record to prove to investors that they are competent. This is usually done so that they may attract investors and of course make money from their strategy. There is little reason for an amateur trader to make a public account of their trading - other than perhaps bragging rights?

As to the security of your system and intellectual property, and as i said before to JJ - its extremely difficult, if not impossible to reverse engineer a strategy based on a trade history log. There is simply too many variables which can be input into the strategy to trigger a position entry and exit. Its far easier and cheaper to simply pay the fee or commission for receiving a signal to the rightful owner.

If you have a good system, then you can use a platform like myfxbook to show people how good it is in the form of your trading history log. From there you can open small things like PAMM trade copying managed accounts and earn a commission from investors or monthly subscription fees for your work. Some of the successful strategies are earing the owner $100k+ per month in commissions alone. Eventually it may lead to bigger things like your own private hedge fund etc. But without proof of a system`s or a strategy`s profitability, AND a well managed risk profile with moderate drawdowns, then you have little hope of gaining trust from serious investors.

This is why i encourage JJ to prove his claims - because without proof its all just meaningless hot air polluting the forum. JJ wont even post a screenshot nevermind publish a trade history log. I beleive its because he doesnt actually trade a real money account or is a shill for some sort of scam he wants people to contact him about.

 

Thanks for the detailed answer. I agree that analytics can be done on another account

Edited January 15, 2019 by A/Plague

[cbrasher1 + 272]

i find all this trading stuff intriguing, do you all work independently or for an actual firm? What's the % commission for trading, 15%?  I don't want to learn it, have no time in the patch.  I'd entertain an investment with someone who knows what they are doing tho....

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Don't find it too interesting, hardly any trader makes money in crude, some get lucky here and there, but hardly anyone has any consistency in trading, except for very large institutions or hedge funds. So if I were you, don't even try to figure it out. I speak to people who have been trading crude for 20 years, and every trade they do is a hit or miss, more miss than hit.

Now having said that, I usually know tomorrows action 1 day in advance.

So let's start with what will happen on Sunday 1/27/2019. Crude will first start by dropping, the first leg down new LOD, then a bit later will start going up making a new HOD. On Monday in UK session crude will make a new LOD for the week. After that, we will see a new HOD for the week. All the LOD and HOD's, of course, can change later in the week. This is the direction for the next 3 sessions. I know the prices levels too, but I think that would be too much for people to even fathom.

Like I said many times, if you know where prices will hit before it hits, it will make your trading that much easier, actually trading will become very easy.

 

GL

[A/Plague + 50]

On 1/27/2019 at 3:24 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Don't find it too interesting, hardly any trader makes money in crude, some get lucky here and there, but hardly anyone has any consistency in trading, except for very large institutions or hedge funds. So if I were you, don't even try to figure it out. I speak to people who have been trading crude for 20 years, and every trade they do is a hit or miss, more miss than hit.

Now having said that, I usually know tomorrows action 1 day in advance.

So let's start with what will happen on Sunday 1/27/2019. Crude will first start by dropping, the first leg down new LOD, then a bit later will start going up making a new HOD. On Monday in UK session crude will make a new LOD for the week. After that, we will see a new HOD for the week. All the LOD and HOD's, of course, can change later in the week. This is the direction for the next 3 sessions. I know the prices levels too, but I think that would be too much for people to even fathom.

Like I said many times, if you know where prices will hit before it hits, it will make your trading that much easier, actually trading will become very easy.

 

GL

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by A/Plague