WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

certainly this was a hard long to do, since most of the time for the last 4 hours it was going down, but this is what im saying you can follow the rat race

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so like i say patience is key, up quite a lot here, only cause i had patience and saw their hand

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

52.5 just hit that was my earlier target, but by their aggressiveness it looks like another 100 from here

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

up 3 at the moment. but if you want to scale in, you need to do it the opposite from other traders. ohter traders will buy the breakout, that is exactly what the ohter side wants you to do, trade the classical way taught by so called experts. but indeed if you want to scale in, you need to wait for a breakout that fails, becomes a breakdown, and then u go in. this way u get filled sometimes 50 cents better than the breakout, and you now have a 500 gain if the original breakout reoccurs.

Now most traders cant do that, since they trade with their emotions, and therefore they can only enter at the high, only later to get wiped out.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so for example i wanted to add. the breakout was 52.60 so i wait if i can get in at say 52.2 we add again, otherwise just let it ride. You need to outsmart the rat race, only then do u stand a chance.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so in this case to add would be at 52.3x. had u added 1 at 52.6 u already would have been down almost 200 on that position

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

the reason why these upmoves stalls and then drop quite a bit and then move up again is the follows.

The previous up move was a slaughter of the the shorts from 52, with stops all the way up from 10 to 50 cents, so now they are gone.

Now if they can fake out more shorts, which is attract the previous shorts who just got hit, with another stall, to get their confidence they move the price down, just enough to get them to short. But they cant move the prices too far down, since otherwise the shorts will take profits. One the shorts pile up again, with their 30 - 60 cent stops, they take them out yet once again, and call it a day as the day winds up.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

the price points are not that exact, because they move up the prices once they have determined there is enough stops to make it worth their while to move it up. but 52.4x is probably where they will now move it up, and take out the stops all the way up to 53.6

Edited December 13, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

as u can see 52.4 for now was the low from the last breakout. 

Here is an article how people with lots of money gets the data before everyone else. Basically the 95% is always way behind the big boys, and as such end serving the liquidity for 1%.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fast-traders-are-getting-data-from-sec-seconds-early-1414539997
 

[White_Dragon + 4]

The question is: How to take data before everyone else? Where to take those data? (two questions sorry)

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

lets say you have no clue how to trade. If you have read a couple of chapters on charts, from one of the beginner books, it could be steve nissons books, or the dummy books, you would realize that crude wti at 52.9 here is a quick short, for about a 40 cent drop or more.

[White_Dragon + 4]

11 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

lets say you have no clue how to trade. If you have read a couple of chapters on charts, from one of the beginner books, it could be steve nissons books, or the dummy books, you would realize that crude wti at 52.9 here is a quick short, for about a 40 cent drop or more.

Give us your lesson on why 52.9 is a quick short, please

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well first of all its now 52.67 so..

Certain trades are so obvious, it dont need explainin (like they say out in the woods)

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

white how to take the data before anyone else? well if you have 50 or 100 mill the exchanges will be happy to speak to you

Now if you dont have this money you are out of luck, well actually you will just need to allow about 3000 traders or more to always trade way ahead of you.

A way to get around it, is to go work for one the big companies who let you use your money, then they let you use their systems, which will give you a big advantage over the retail  trader, trading from his basement, or moms bedroom.

But if you decide to trade with a small account, highly leveraged with no edge, you will be at the mercy of the 1%, who generally will eat you up alive, before you can even say, "today will be a good day".

Understand this, when someone like the oil god says the reason he lost 500 mill, is because the rules of the game has changed, and he has all the latest gadgets and smartest phds working for him, if he cants figure it out, what hope is left for the 99%.

However, if you sit down and strategize and come up with some system thats way ahead of the game, now it wont be able to beat the 1%, but it will at least trade in their direction, at least most of the time, then you have a chance.

But understand if you come up with some system, of using some indicator(s) that where available some 100 years ago, dont even bother, even if it was available just now, dont bother. Since all indicator are reinventions of the old indicators.

for example the great bollinger band from the 80s was reinvented from someone in the 30s.

Candles taught by nisson i guess in the 80s too, was invented 400 years ago by the Japanese.

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so its now a bit too much 52.44, i dont mind with 2 but as soon as the mkt opened at 5am ct i was watching and once i saw movement jumped in. its possible now to go under 52.. which should be a good place to exit

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so as you can see the prices in asian from the open dropped from 52.80 down to 52.20 a little more than i expected. right now its sitting back at 52.4 so a 20 cent up move from its low. are we going back up here to 53?  and therefore long, or will it first go lower than its recent low, and then much lower.? i see it doing the latter, and therefore still short now -4, all the way from 52.8. so shorting here at 52.4 is a lot risker sinces it hovering at midpt between the low of 52.2 and 52.8. however had you shorted at 52.8 u can now withstand the risk if you wish, for larger gains or risk giving it all back it it reverses to 53.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so what i ended up doing was move the stop to 52.5 and just got taken out.

nice way to trade. though i think its still going down, to short here is not my cup of tea

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i just ordered 2 laptops, problem is my 2 computers here are slow but good enough for charts. the news computers will get me better graphics, and i can see more thing related to the prices. and having different perpectives of the same thing, gives you a much better understand of the  behind the scenes.

So say i was a general, if i had one view which is the view of the front of the enemy that would be good, and this would be like most traders views. But say i could also have a brids eye view, and a view from inside the enemy and a view from the back of the enemy, well thats a different story, and that would give me a much better edge. One of the laptops is custom, the other i just got from amazon. So cants wait, i guess i may be a bit dangerous then.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

One of the key thing you need to understand in how to make money, is how not to lose money.

this actually is divided into 2 items.

1] after you enter a trade, say after a while you realize your wrong, or it didnt do what you wanted it to do, then GET OUT. as simple as that.

if you after you get into a loss, say i will see what happens or i have a stop .50 cents below, then thats bad trading. Just get out as soon as you see, that the trade did not do what you thought it would do.

2] say you are in a trade that is profitable, so say you go long at 53.1 and u have a large position stop at say 52.5, now you are up at 53.4, you need to move your stop to 53.1, why? since say u are long 4 positions and it tanks to your stop, you would be out about 2k, so u need to manage your trades wisely, both the stops and the profits.

I think if you can incorporate these 2 things assuming first that you have a good tested system, you will do better than the average trader.

[White_Dragon + 4]

6 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

well first of all its now 52.67 so..

Certain trades are so obvious, it dont need explainin (like they say out in the woods)

Yes, explain it anyway. Explain why you "forecast" this movement. 

[White_Dragon + 4]

2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

One of the key thing you need to understand in how to make money, is how not to lose money.

this actually is divided into 2 items.

1] after you enter a trade, say after a while you realize your wrong, or it didnt do what you wanted it to do, then GET OUT. as simple as that.

if you after you get into a loss, say i will see what happens or i have a stop .50 cents below, then thats bad trading. Just get out as soon as you see, that the trade did not do what you thought it would do.

2] say you are in a trade that is profitable, so say you go long at 53.1 and u have a large position stop at say 52.5, now you are up at 53.4, you need to move your stop to 53.1, why? since say u are long 4 positions and it tanks to your stop, you would be out about 2k, so u need to manage your trades wisely, both the stops and the profits.

I think if you can incorporate these 2 things assuming first that you have a good tested system, you will do better than the average trader.

Yes, This is a good suggestion. A suggestion you can read everywhere, but anyway thanks because it is true and good.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Anyways to me trading the asian session with oil, was usually difficult, it didnt seem to have any clear direction. But now asian got a lot easier.

With crude it is really fast, you always need to use stops or move your stops, otherwise in a split second they can move the price 50 cents or so against you. If you dont have a stop a 200 gain can easily turn into a 1k loss in no time.

Would i suggest to anyone to trade crude? No. its way too dangerous, and if you dont have a large account that can take some move against you, you will be wiped out fast.

If you know whats good for you, dont trade crude futures at least. Now im not sure how cfds work in crude, and i guess you can ask your fx broker.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

just exited longs at 0, i try not to take any risk

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

future now at 52.3, i didnt think they would drop below 52.4 before hitting 53, this is where the volatility can get you. so i may be wrong of how low it will go first, but sometimes u just need to stay positive and hope they dont hit ur stop before it moves back up

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

based on how i see it, i had to hit at least 53 today, it may come now or maybe later, thats where u need to be accurate in your prediction, not just the target but when. and since i see most novice traders, or really most traders as being short right, they will have no choice but to take out all their stops until a bit past 53, noone here would be long, except for people who maybe think a little different 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Top Oil Trader