WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

[aakash kapoor + 16]

Hasn't trading become easier lately with almost correct predictions about the oil ? We know, ultimately oil will fall for some weeks, so, even if there is a bounce, you know that you've to wait for the downward movement to start and place a short.

Was Crude always this predictable or we have better traders and analysts in this community forum ?

Edited November 30, 2018 by aakash kapoor

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Noone predicted this fall, i was really the only one out there to predict it. go back to october 1 when  crude was at 76, and youll see all the analysts including traders where sure oil would hit 80. Only after it starting hitting 65 did people start waking up, and think maybe i was right. but since 65 people have predicted the  bottoms, here and at the news and analysts, i remember when it hit 60, goldman came out again saying crude would hit 80, and failed again and again. Even cramer, who i like as a fun guy, but when oil hit 50 after a 33% from when i said it would drop, he said, "oil is going down folks!" maybe a little bit too late.

Edited November 30, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[aakash kapoor + 16]

Yes JJ, i was following your thread from the start but i wasn't sure about your prediction until it hit $65. And after that, i believe your numbers are worth considering to some extent. 

What i've written above is related to oil movement in the past 15 days or so.

Just be a little soft when you write in the forum and people will start following you.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

aakash i have no need for people to follow me. i dont make any money from it and i dont nee the fame. so to me if people dont like my tone, i gues its too bad. having said that. Im just talking here, and people can comment, so that i can learn too.

if i didnt know how to trade and someone told me, say the best trader in the world, that he would teach me how to trade, but ony if he could beat me up a whole day, i would say, "when can we start?" 

Right now if i got a job the most i could make a day would be maybe $200 a day, working hard, with mostly dumb and annoying people, why would i not want to just trade. and make a lot more than that daily.

[aakash kapoor + 16]

That's wonderful man. You've got a great thing going for yourself and you're making money and you have big plans planned for yourself ahead. But all i'm saying is if you're doing well, making huge profits, then why do you feel the need of posting your findings in a community forum ?

I guess, to have a healthy discussion among all the traders in this community or is it to prove to someone that you're the best ?

Well, no doubt that you've come a long way from any of that and in the end all i'm gonna say is what you're doing, i really appreciate it and wish you all the best for your future plans and hope you start your hedgefund very soon.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

what a waste of time. 

[catch22 + 244]

11 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

open trades

this is why i dont mind taking a loss once in a while. i already hours ago close 1.1k in profits before the 300 loss.

Ok great - youve started posting screen shots - heading in the right direction at last.

Can i ask that you post screen shots of your analysis and when/why you take a position at that point in time just prior or after taking a position?

For example, you have started a thread indicating it will go down to $40, can you show where you shorted it, and where / when you plan to add more positions as it progresses with the view of holding those positions down to $40?

So if it gets to $48-49 - will you add more shorts and keep the existing ones open? if not- why close them if you beleive it will keep going down to $40?

Basically im trying to extract your reasoning from you rather than simply "look how good i am"  - dont mean disrespect, its just that the reasoning and ideas are worth discussing here, the latter noone is interested in... we can turn this whole thing into something productive and useful as opposed to just unesessary noise...

 

[catch22 + 244]

On 11/30/2018 at 1:48 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

since wti in my opinion is only worth right now in the 30s, but somehow they refuse to let it get there. changed stop to 51.5 just in case

stopped at 51.5 - and you had 4 contracts open, Sell net from 50.41 see below;

On 12/1/2018 at 12:28 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

open trades

this is why i dont mind taking a loss once in a while. i already hours ago close 1.1k in profits before the 300 loss.

looking at the above you must have shorted 4 contracts @ 50.41 and stopped at 51.50 = -$0.89 CLF9 price. When you posted the above screen shot the price had moved 0.38 in your favour - down to $50.02 which indeed it did before reversing and hitting your stop.

=$890 per contract X4 contracts

= -$3560 loss

Cheer up, theres always next time...

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

when im up i always end up closing in a profit.

crude goes back and forth and if you are fast enough u can catch trades in both directions.

You need 1] have a system/ 2] be on correct side 3] get out quick. i had trades where i was up 3k today.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

You see when i track lots of traders accounts, and i do have access, here is what they do.

1] they have no clue on the direction for the day, 0.

2] their only hope is breakouts

3] and therefore many focus on 1 and 5 min charts, which is will show you breakouts mostly fakes.

4] and thats what they focus on, so catching 20 cent moves, but in most cases they will first be down $500 before if they are lucky and the prices reverse quickly catch 200.

6] however many of their trades end up in losses.

Understand that any bit of fake news from anyone will spike up the prices.

And if reality sets in, say more glut, or bigger discounts by producers which range from $42 to $12 at the moment, expect a big dive.

problem is for most they wont have any warning before it happens and they will be caught in the wrong trade, so my advice to you is use stops, and keep them tight, because prices will run away next week.

At this point i have charting from 9 different vendors, not tradestation though, amazingly all have something in their charts, usefull, the other one doesn't. but u need to keep track of the chaos to make sense of it all.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

This chart you are showing me,  Notice the last trade i took for 1 contract was when it broke that last line whatever that is, on your chart. Please note though if this is how you figure out direction from looking at this chart, you will be at the mercy or trading bots, hfc hedgefunds and others all day long. To play the crude game, you really need to advance your knowledge. As you see many times the moves are close to $3 a day, and for some reason, most traders cant even make some money of a move like that. But what i think it is, since trading crude as i showed you is quite simple, i think they drive in a car with a foggy window, so they cant see what ahead of them. There is one oil trader who is pretty good that i have seen, hes been featured a couple of times, he is better than most but his accuracy is still only 40% due to constantly being stopped out, he does make money though, but he could make a lot more by understanding the crude markets better. you see in crude u could get stopped out twice and then make it all back and more on the 3rd trade.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Here are some reasons why people cant make money even when they read fundamental stories.

Take for example the news story i read here today, from nov 25, 2018 by some  lady called tsvetana paraskova who seems to write lots of news here on oilprice. She writes some news again about the opec meeting this week, that some guy andy hall who had a oil hedge fund and is referred to as some kind of oil god, he says that meeting next week could cause them to cut production, ok we have heard that story regurgitated many times already. then she finishes off by saying that andy hall this oil god, But in the summer of 2017, he closed his main fund Astenbeck after the fund posted double-digit losses. What do you mean double digit losses? double digit is two numbers. so did he lose $22, or $99, or was $22, million, what do you mean double digits, why not if you are a consultant with 10 years experience get your facts straight. this guy lost not double digits, but $500,000,000, or $500 million in predicting the bottom for oil, which then continued to plunge he destroyed his investors, now you bring in this same guy as your proof that oil is at a a bottom. And then you say his loss in that fund he closed was in the double digits. it may be an honest mistake, but what does double digits mean? At least write clearly what you mean, some people here use this site to right now predict the bottom, so they can maybe take a long term trade in oil. Try and do your research a little better next time. This loss was only 3 years ago, so you must have been around back then during your 10 years consultancy in the oil markets, why hide this important fact? And say his loss was in the double digits, actually in $500,000,000 i actually see 9 digits. I have only played oil for 3 months now on and off, never heard of it before i got to this site, and i seem to know a lot more than most fundamentalists will ever know in their lifetime about oil. People blame the glut of oil prices, indeed thats correct, so why dont they fix it? Fix it now. Why wait for some meeting? Indeed its a lot more complex that they tell you in the news. What is sad though after this hedge fund any hall losts $500,000,000 who did he blame? Not himself. Here is one of his reasons why he closed his fund. what he and many other hedgefunds claims who have lost even more than he has, in the billions, claim the reason for their failure is, that the trading bots make it difficult to understand fundamentals. Lets see, did the bots have anything to do with the price drop on Oct 1 2018 from 76 to 49? I thought that was a glut problem or that they didnt read the embargo correctly. Yes bots do make it hard for day traders for sure, but  mostly for daytrader since the swings are vicous in crude, as i see first hand every day. But for a long term trader it should make no difference what the bots do, since in most cases these are fake moves against the overall trend. So if in fact you know how to read charts and you know how to see trends, 1000 bots wont make a difference in where the price will eventually go to, like in this last case as it dropped 33% almost in a straight line, with bots confusing day traders like crazy every day. And these gots will only get more and more sophisticated as we move on, and it will only make day traders lifes more and more miserable. One of the reasons you can make so much money in 1 day in trading crude, since 99% lose money, there are lots of losses to be picked up daily. But if day traders understood how to make money, good traders would not be able to make hardly any money in trading.

Bots are indeed very sophisticated, and its not just based on some fancy algorithm of a chart, there is a lot more that goes into it than that. So traders think well, ill just out trade the bots with my amazing knowledge in candle sticks, or pivots, or moving averages or based on this new course i  just paid 6k for, from this guy who i found on youtube, explaining to me how to make money, while he was standing in front of his Ferrari. 

Basically in short these bots know how the big average of traders trade say 95 - 99% and since most traders kind of do the same thing, they just set them up and swoop them out, almost daily almost hourly almost minute by minute. Then there are other bots that try to do sweep out the other bots, and it goes on in levels. And then you have the traders at the bottom, so to say its hard today to daytrade, is something most daytraders will eventually come to realize. 

I compare daytrading to trying to pick up gold from a pit full of rattle snakes. You need to be an expert snake handler to take some gold. 

But currently im watching one more hedgefund expert who last predicted oil would reach $300 back in april 2018. In october alone when prices hit 55 he was down 20.9%, so by now the losses would be larger, and assuming im right that we hit somewhere in low 40s, or even 30s, his losses could rival the oil god. So far the total losses to investors from from 2 months of bad trading, is more than 1 Trilion dollars.

Edited December 2, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Three other hedgefunds to close their funds https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-15/andurand-hedge-fund-is-said-to-lose-21-in-october-on-oil-swoon, dont any of these guys come here, had they been there they would have seen my oct 1st prediction that oil was going down big, and they could simply have shorted and instead of losing 200 or 400 mill they could have made that for their investors. I expect at least another 10 oil hedgefunds to close up, due to bad reliance on wrong information and predictions.

Edited December 2, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I have been to vegas quite a lot, now as you know most really lose their shirt there, they come in with 1k make some money by then end they are down to 0. However, i have seen lots who make a ton and leave with profits, 8k, 20k etc, why is that? This happens mostly in blackjack and poker.

So usually when we have the wsop tournament in july you meet the best players in the world. Now many of them not just in the tournament, will play 21 for fun and walk away with 8k or so, why?

And i have met lost of them, and seen the squanders thousands, more than many of you have in your accounts, the squander thousands after their win at the stip clubs, one guy i met made 30k at a game, and spent 8k in 1 nite at one of the seediest clubes in vegas. Think he was a greenhorn when it came to strip clubs in vegas.

But the point is, how these guys can make so much money, and travel all over the world, and rake it in.

These guys know all the probs of all hands in blackjack, on many they dont bet, but when they get that perfect no risk trade, they go almost all in, and make money, they do this a couple of times and leave.

The guys who lose their whole wad, are the ones who dont know the prob of every outcome, or they dont know the biggest prob or an outcome, and therefore bet the same everytime.

So in trading when you have a couple of trade setups during the day, you notice sometimes i bet small sometimes large, it all depends how much the system gives it high probs, the higher the larger the position.

So that is the key to trading, you need to know which setups are risky, which are low risk, and the best way is to risk the same on each trade, but if you want to make quick money, you risk maybe 3x on the low risk trades.

So 2 screnarios, if you have a system that can tell you when you have low risk and when u have high risk trades, you can bet 1x on each trade, i dont like that system, since you will give a lot back on the high risk trades.

scenario 2, only bet 1x on the low risk trades, dont bet at all on the high risk trades, a very conservative approach, and a good way to buid up your account slowly, in oil that would be about 600 to 1k a day.

Last scenario and this is not recommended but only if you really have lots of experience, and like to make money quick.

3x risk on low risk trades, so in my system there is at least 1 low risk trades and many times a 2nd, and in this case your reward whould be 1.8k to 3.6k a day, what the beautiful thing about this, you dont need big accounts for this, but if you do a 3x on a high risk it means quick losses, and you could be out fast.

However, to know what is a high risk what is a low risk, could take most traders eons to figure out.

When i look at the hedgefunds who are now in the last 2 months falling like flies, and more to come, its obvious that if the smartest of the smartest didnt figure it out, the ones who are given billions to manage and who hire the smartest nasa phds, and pay some half a mill in salaries, if they get it wrong again and again, what hope can you have for the smaller trader.

So in short, trading is just about probabilities, your jobs is to figure out what those probs are, and decide everytime you pull the trigger, to only pull the trigger at low risk trades.

But forget about oil, this is how it work in equities, in es minis in gold, pork bellies, soyabeans and in gambling.

[catch22 + 244]

Well oil went up, from 50.60 to over 53.50 now currently above $53... now JJ lost his shorts and is nowhere to be seen. What does your miracle system which you have described as everything from "perfect" to "sophisticated" say now? Its a rhetorical question, as ive known the truth for a long time now.. 

Edited December 3, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So it looks like i was luck in oct nov as we saw amazing moves in oil. It looks like when it all settles down oil moves not more than forex. So we need to scale down a bit.

Most important dont get whipsawed.

Wait for it.

i think right now each chart has a potential of 26 indicators. However, not 1 chart has more than a couple like i said, it is super complex to update this when i want to try new things. So now create a spreadsheet thats tells me what supposed to go on what and when. Spent about 4 hours today just getting it all synced correctly and working out the bugs.But by now what i used 1 month ago 2 weeks ago is already compressed into very few things. We shall see how it works later.  at this  pt 53.39 wti stil is on its way up higher, so still holding my trade.

[A/Plague + 50]

.

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

From the look of after some volatility here and there and some false breaks, crude should move higher for the day.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

indeed it moved a  lot higher got out just below 54, was hard to hold after that

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

in hidsight perfect long perect exit

[aakash kapoor + 16]

Not a perfect exit after-all JJ, should have waited for another 50 cents.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

indeed but i was long 7 contracts and at those times you need to expect the worst.but from the chart yes i should have waited.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

at this point i can only go short or long in case there is some  correction on the price,, for me to go long now, no matter what is not my style

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so prices will go up even higher they have not reached my target but first a nice sell. or short

, 

[aakash kapoor + 16]

According to me, 54.24 is a perfect entry for a short. and if drop continues, it'll go till 53.7x