WTI now @50.60 headed for $41 - $34

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

no noone is shorting the bottom, they are shorting the tops

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

anyone who shorted at 52.3 would have made a nice trade covering for about 100

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

by greats i dont mean cramer or some analyst, but one of the big billion dollar traders.

In poker you need to know the system you are using thats one.

The other thing is looking for hints of when the others may have a good hand or a bad hand.

In trading crude, i have found what those hints are, when it can reverse, countertrend etc during the intraday.

These are important signs to look in addition to your system.

Now the manipulators can only bring up oil while there is no damaging news. but once real news comes in, the manipulators will step aside, and let crude go where it has to, 49, 45, 35.

So for now the manipulators have the upper hand, as long as they do, you go with them, but that doesnt mean u cant countertrend the moves as i did today 3 times. All about patience and skill and learning how to read the tape.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

in other words, i never blame somone if a trade doesnt go my way, there is only myself to blame, in that i did not read the action correctly. whether its hfc traders or some algos from citadel

[ATK + 355]

47 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

no noone is shorting the bottom, they are shorting the tops

Sure JJ, guess we'll see 😆

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

as long as im up for the day, im ok. after all its all about consistency

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

when i first tried day trading about 3 months ago, the losses where fast, even if i was up 3k, 15 min later i would be down 500 bucks. After slowly figuring out what makes crude move intraday, the vast manipulation, when it suits them, and the vast selloff when the they get a wake up call. putting all that together is where u can make about 3k a day.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

the max i have been up in 1 trade since then was 6k, i will say this i did not close with 6k, but i have gotten close to that a couple of times. eventually this will be straightforward when to enter and when to exit, i dont exit at those high profits since im gunning for more, this is probably a mistake, at this point im trying to come up with a strategy of when to exit high profitable trades before they reverse

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Since by nature i dont trust the markets any market or companies, i usually short. Its hard for me to see value say in a stock when i see a revenues of 3 mill and the ceo making 1 mill etc. So to me most instruments are shorts, i find the negative things in them.

Same in crude to me wti is worth about 35 not more, so for me even if its going up, its hard for me to go along, to me trading is about what you believe i believe wti is still way overpriced.

So having said that, in the last 2 months i rarely make money going long, even when i go long its hard for me to stay more than 1 minute.

My biggest wins as u see from my trades are shorts, not longs.

Now the fact that there is now a lot of support for crude, wont make me go long no matter what, its principles. So in that case i will start focusing not on trend, but counter trends, when i think it went up enough i will short until support. And wait for the next fake move.

Same when appl was 220 about 3 months ago and i said short, why i knew it had to go down, and after a while it did drop to 160s. I see the same issues with some of the others like netflix, goog, amzn, fb, i dont think they will last, and will eventually be has beens. So to me all those  stocks this year where great shorts, this is how i look at everything just from a short perpective.

So when they manipulate it up, like they did today, i just stay out, let them do their thing, let them have fun, and go in for the kill and get out, hopefully in time. now working on the, "hopefully in time part", this of course requires a little more depth, and by tommorrow this will all be worked out.

I saw some other guy big fund, who has been short tesla, and of course i think tesla will be at 0 one day, just a matter of time. Every time i see the tesla ceo speak (forget his name, dont care), i always think the co is worthless, eventually.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

going long, could take a while before we see a short

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

here is nother reason why going long  is a waste been long now for like 2 hours only up 210, the long today from 5090 to 52 took 6 hours or so. so for longs you need lots and lots of patience

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/12/2018 at 5:59 AM, ATK said:

Might want to start a new thread with a more relevant title and glad you took my advice. You seemed kind if desperate for some help, so happy to lend a hand 

Needless to say I'm sticking with my previous prediction and adding the time frame that we will be there in at least two weeks.

I'll be back in two weeks, not changing my position because I'm confident  

✌

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/11/2018 at 2:09 PM, catch22 said:

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

4 long now

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

just $1 move up is 4k

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

59 is target for this week, with ups and downs

[catch22 + 244]

3 hours ago, A/Plague said:

154% is very little ... it says that your system is flawed and sometime will let you down. It is not able to determine pivot points as true (see below). Normal target is 2000-5000%

Not at all - please see my previous screen shot on prior page and note the following;

154% is annualized over 6 weeks history.

You can also see account drawdown is very small in % of account balance and so the risk % of account is also very small.

win rate is ~98% on buys, +80% on sells.

Its a conservative strategy which is making good returns at 150%pa for comparatively little risk. I could increase the profits much more but that simply means more risk. I may increase the risk to return ratio in future, but for now im happy taking consistently small profits

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/12/2018 at 12:38 PM, catch22 said:

Not at all - please see my previous screen shot on prior page and note the following;

154% is annualized over 6 weeks history.

You can also see account drawdown is very small in % of account balance and so the risk % of account is also very small.

win rate is ~98% on buys, +80% on sells.

Its a conservative strategy which is making good returns at 150%pa for comparatively little risk. I could increase the profits much more but that simply means more risk. I may increase the risk to return ratio in future, but for now im happy taking consistently small profits

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ah, one thing i can tell you, that holding these longs here is hard. But you got to go with the flow and be a man, and yes there will be countertrend opps, on the way up, where exactly the long trades will fail, is not yet determinable

Edited December 12, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[catch22 + 244]

On 12/12/2018 at 10:09 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

ah, one thing i can tell you, that holding these longs here is hard. But you got to go with the flow and be a man, and yes there will be countertrend opps, on the way up, where exactly the long trades will fail, is not yet determinable

i disagree. Charts are showing strong support around $50 and strong resistance at $54. WTI is range bound there for now. Holding positions as you approach those zones is risky. Im looking for shorts in the high $53s and longs below $51...

 

Edited December 31, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

taking the longs in asian was easy and holding them are easy, shorting during wild up moves, is not worth it, but if you time it right, there will be short opps

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/12/2018 at 3:46 PM, ATK said:

Because let's not forget you did not think oil would go higher when I posted that trade 13 hours ago.

So like I said, you seem like you REALLY need the help so happy to help 😊

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

still long 5 from yesterday, yes i probably need help spending the profits. lol

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/12/2018 at 4:22 PM, catch22 said:

i disagree. Charts are showing strong support around $50 and strong resistance at $54. WTI is range bound there for now. Holding positions as you approach those zones is risky. Im looking for shorts in the high $53s and longs below $51...

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague

[A/Plague + 50]

On 12/12/2018 at 4:55 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

still long 5 from yesterday, yes i probably need help spending the profits. lol 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by A/Plague