Qatar Leaving what is the effect on prices

[Udara Hemachandra + 10]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/03/world/middleeast/qatar-withdraw-opec.html will this affect oil pries to go down ?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 minutes ago, Udara Hemachandra said:

will this affect oil pries to go down ?

Short term - maybe a hiccup or two in knee jerk overreactions. 

Long term - seems unlikely.  Qatar's primary hydrocarbon export is LNG, not oil.  And within 5 years, Qatar should be the world's largest exporter of LNG again for the forseeable future (Australia overtook Qatar as world's top exporter of LNG, but Qatar is going to expand its production by 40% within a few years.)

Sorry, I didn't bother to read the NY Times article, as I already had my fill of disinformation this morning.  Your mileage may vary.  And no, please don't take this as investment advice - I'm not an oil trader, and everything I just wrote is off the top of my head.

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Short term - maybe a hiccup or two in knee jerk overreactions. 

Long term - seems unlikely.  Qatar's primary hydrocarbon export is LNG, not oil.  And within 5 years, Qatar should be the world's largest exporter of LNG again for the forseeable future (Australia overtook Qatar as world's top exporter of LNG, but Qatar is going to expand its production by 40% within a few years.)

Sorry, I didn't bother to read the NY Times article, as I already had my fill of disinformation this morning.  Your mileage may vary.  And no, please don't take this as investment advice - I'm not an oil trader, and everything I just wrote is off the top of my head. 

not any meaningful impact directly to oil, for now. heavy on the "for now". While Qatar is not a huge oil player (but still decently sized) it's a massive energy player and holds sway (as evidenced by its ability to stand up to KSA et al's blockade or whatever). It's more important that this is a big middle finger to Saudi Arabia. Relations and cooperations breaking  down is never a good thing where the Middle East is concerned. Nope. 

The action shifts alliances maybe, and dispenses with age old pretenses--a fact that is more disconcerting than the possibility of Qatar not cutting oil production. 

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

17 minutes ago, Rodent said:

not any meaningful impact directly to oil, for now. heavy on the "for now". While Qatar is not a huge oil player (but still decently sized) it's a massive energy player and holds sway (as evidenced by its ability to stand up to KSA et al's blockade or whatever). It's more important that this is a big middle finger to Saudi Arabia. Relations and cooperations breaking  down is never a good thing where the Middle East is concerned. Nope. 

The action shifts alliances maybe, and dispenses with age old pretenses--a fact that is more disconcerting than the possibility of Qatar not cutting oil production. 

Well said.  I would remind of the niggling point that relations and cooperations in the Middle East appear to be always tenuous.  Remember the good old days of a happy and carefree Middle East?  Yeah, me neither.

A bigger question should probably be ... how soon until U.S. Shale Oil production starts declining due to lower WTI prices.  Should already be in progress, near as I can deduce.  I'm just waiting for the news to start reporting the production decline. 

Also, sub - $50 WTI should choke off excess U.S. Shale Oil production pretty darn quick, as well as severely curtail new drilling for shale oil, which would further reduce future production.  Should know more by end of this month.

And before anyone gets too excited about U.S. Shale Oil production reductions due to falling oil prices, just remember, the 7,000 or so DUCs are ready and waiting for when oil prices rise again, effectively capping oil prices from going sky high in the near future, regardless of any impending black swan events.

 

[John Foote + 1,135]

32 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Well said.  I would remind of the niggling point that relations and cooperations in the Middle East appear to be always tenuous.  Remember the good old days of a happy and carefree Middle East?  Yeah, me neither.

I'm having a really bad day. Glad to end my evening with a LMAO movement. Thank you.

I visited the then mostly peaceful Lebanon as a young teenager shortly before the Yom Kipper war and watched Israeli A-4s flying overhead and they weren't sightseeing and it made quite the impression. The Lebanese told me they were bombing nearby Palestinian camps. That was pre-Hezbullah, and Syria hadn't yet invaded Lebanon, so the Lebanese were probably right.  The Israelis did get caught with their pants down for the '73 war, which is hubris beyond belief when they were prosecuting a low intensity war at the time. That gets lost in the version of that particular war I as taught. Which is why I'm not so surprised the media gets the region so wrong. 

Despite it all, Lebanon is still a great place to visit. Just make sure you have real local with you.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

10 hours ago, John Foote said:

Despite it all, Lebanon is still a great place to visit. Just make sure you have real local with you.

I feel the same way about New York City.  A local and lots of cash/cards!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 hours ago, Rodent said:

not any meaningful impact directly to oil, for now. heavy on the "for now". While Qatar is not a huge oil player (but still decently sized) it's a massive energy player and holds sway (as evidenced by its ability to stand up to KSA et al's blockade or whatever). It's more important that this is a big middle finger to Saudi Arabia. Relations and cooperations breaking  down is never a good thing where the Middle East is concerned. Nope. 

The action shifts alliances maybe, and dispenses with age old pretenses--a fact that is more disconcerting than the possibility of Qatar not cutting oil production. 

 

Qatar, from all reports, is already outcast and under constant threat of physical separation within its own region.  Why should they stay in OPEC?  Nobody but nobody is listening to them anyway.  I'd go my own way and set my own rules to my own game.  

[TraderTate + 186]

Might not see any obvious, immediate impact, but deeper down there will have to be, even if indirect. Still mulling this over, but it's definitely not innocuous. It also comes right when MBS was making overtures to Qatar after being on the offensive for so long. I've got some people in the Middle East who are going to chime in off the record. If I find anything I can share, I will. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

41 minutes ago, TraderTate said:

Might not see any obvious, immediate impact, but deeper down there will have to be, even if indirect. Still mulling this over, but it's definitely not innocuous. It also comes right when MBS was making overtures to Qatar after being on the offensive for so long. I've got some people in the Middle East who are going to chime in off the record. If I find anything I can share, I will. 

Please do!

 

[TomTom + 183]

Qatar will lose some geopolitical leverage here, but I can't see prices going down on this news... Qatar is already struggling to keep Al-Shaheen production up, and is unlikely to boost production significantly within OPEC or out of OPEC.

It's much more interesting to see what its natural gas ambitions are, and how Iran and Qatar will communicate in this one last OPEC meeting where Qatar will be present. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

Qatar has some massive investments going to improve capacity, they'll get it done. They are determine to be the world's #1 exporter of LNG. 

Iran and Qatar have managed working the Pars field together for a long time. Probably 10-20,000 Iranians work in Qatar, for economics, economic refugees of a sort, not politics. 

[Usrowboy + 1]

Hi guys (and ladies?)

newbee here.  I've been trying unsuccessfully to trade oil futures.  I'm not getting the right information in my research.  Finviz, Yahoo Finance,  MSNBC (not Cramer), and now Oilprice.   I don't expect anyone to share picks, but I'd like to see if you can share or point me in the direction of better sources of information.  Any help appreciated.  I'm a student of OTA which is kind of a technical approach, but research is key.

Thanks,  usrowboy

[TomTom + 183]

16 hours ago, Usrowboy said:

Hi guys (and ladies?)

newbee here.  I've been trying unsuccessfully to trade oil futures.  I'm not getting the right information in my research.  Finviz, Yahoo Finance,  MSNBC (not Cramer), and now Oilprice.   I don't expect anyone to share picks, but I'd like to see if you can share or point me in the direction of better sources of information.  Any help appreciated.  I'm a student of OTA which is kind of a technical approach, but research is key.

 Thanks,  usrowboy

hi usrowboy, 

Welcome here - our oil trading section under 'Energy General' and the markets and trading section are full of threads are full of general and more specific discussions on this topic. There are some avid oil futures traders in there and some more general equities traders like myself.

Check it out here: https://community.oilprice.com/forum/89-oil-trading/

Feel free to ask whatever question in one of these sections, and I'm sure there'll be a number of community members that have an answer or two. 

Next to this, if you're just looking for stock picks, Seeking Alpha could be of interest to you, as there are many semi-pro's and amateur traders with good picks/investment theses.  

Good luck dude, and don't lose your shirt!

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 12/5/2018 at 10:44 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

A bigger question should probably be ... how soon until U.S. Shale Oil production starts declining due to lower WTI prices.  Should already be in progress, near as I can deduce.  I'm just waiting for the news to start reporting the production decline. 

Also, sub - $50 WTI should choke off excess U.S. Shale Oil production pretty darn quick, as well as severely curtail new drilling for shale oil, which would further reduce future production.  Should know more by end of this month.

Reports are starting to trickle in.

Oil Price Slide Puts The Brakes On U.S. Shale Growth

U.S. shale drilling may soon start to show slowdown in activity, Gary Heminger, Chairman and CEO at Marathon Petroleum Corporation, told Fox Business on Wednesday.

“If you look at the Canadian producers, when you’re looking at the wide spreads of the Western Canadian Select versus WTI, you look at some of the real cost to get some of the crude out of the Bakken because the pipelines are full – I think we are going to start seeing a slowdown in drilling if they don’t see some prices turn around,” Heminger warned, but noted that he doesn’t expect the slowdown to be “dramatic”.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 12/4/2018 at 5:28 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Sorry, I didn't bother to read the NY Times article, as I already had my fill of disinformation this morning.  Your mileage may vary. 

Fox "news" kinda guy? 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

45 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Fox "news" kinda guy? 

Nope.  I don't watch news on TV.  Or much of any TV, actually.

 

[John Foote + 1,135]

21 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Nope.  I don't watch news on TV.  Or much of any TV, actually.

What's the line. "If you don't watch the news you are uniformed. if you watch the news you are miss-informed."

Quite the base fact is correct, but the framing and oped portion, what you are told this means, that is tripe. It certainly isn't following the scientific method or any form of formal logic.