Oil Imports to the US

[FGoldwyn + 1]

Greetings!

On November 16th, Oil Price ran an article pertaining to a reduction of Saudi shipments of oil to the US. Some trading firms have been monitoring shipping data to get an understanding of the change in shipments of oil to the US from the Middle East. It is my understanding that it takes about 6 weeks for oil to move from the Persian Gulf to the US Gulf ports. It is also my understanding that in late October / early November shipping volume dropped from 1 mb/d to ~500 mmb/d. This reduction should be showing up in US oil inventories and import data by the end of December/early January. 

Can someone share their views on this information.

[Rodent + 1,424]

8 minutes ago, FGoldwyn said:

Greetings!

On November 16th, Oil Price ran an article pertaining to a reduction of Saudi shipments of oil to the US. Some trading firms have been monitoring shipping data to get an understanding of the change in shipments of oil to the US from the Middle East. It is my understanding that it takes about 6 weeks for oil to move from the Persian Gulf to the US Gulf ports. It is also my understanding that in late October / early November shipping volume dropped from 1 mb/d to ~500 mmb/d. This reduction should be showing up in US oil inventories and import data by the end of December/early January. 

Can someone share their views on this information.

Ms. Paraskova agrees with your assessment that this will likely effect US inventories in late December or January. 

 

[FGoldwyn + 1]

Thanks for the comment!

I think there have been a few who agree with this view.  However, the market and the inventory numbers do not. That is why I am interested in the perspectives of others.  If shipments to the US have fallen, and the quality of shale crude is below what is refine-able in the US, then we should have an inventory problem. I may be missing something really obvious, but something does not add up.

Comments appreciated.