TXPower + 643 TP February 25, 2019 They get blamed for everything else...... But, since you mentioned it. Russia may not officially be in OPEC,l but that doesn’t detract from the fact that OPEC doesn’t move until Russia speaks, or hadn’t you heard about the meeting in Vienna in December 2018? OPEC+. Perhaps the US should join, then it could be OPEC++. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 18 minutes ago, TXPower said: They get blamed for everything else...... But, since you mentioned it. Russia may not officially be in OPEC,l but that doesn’t detract from the fact that OPEC doesn’t move until Russia speaks, or hadn’t you heard about the meeting in Vienna in December 2018? OPEC+. Perhaps the US should join, then it could be OPEC++. One small problem - the EC in OPEC stands for Exporting Countries One bigger problem. The USA is the 1st/2nd biggest* net importer of oil on the planet *China may have overtaken the USA Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,235 er February 25, 2019 10 hours ago, nebbia said: I have been struggling with this issue wading through SA stories and comments for a few days now, unable to reach any viable theories. In the 2H of this year 1.5mbbl per day of oil will be taken out of the Permian Basis through new pipelines placed in service, followed by another 1.5mbbl/day in 2020. 3bmcf/day of natural gas will also be taken out of the Permian in 2H 2019, followed by another 3bmcf/day added in 2020. For natural gas the impact seems like it will be absorbed into the network of pipelines and storage and prices will likely go down overall. Yes, there will still be regional differentials, but less so as the "network" seems to be able to absorb the new output more fluidly (no pun intended). For oil though, the bottleneck seems more physical in nature. The bottleneck will just be moved to the shipping channels and storage, which is already full. Most of this additional oil will be exported. My question is, how long before the shipping channels can take away (or store) all the additional capacity coming on-line through the pipelines. If immediate, won't an additional 3mbbl/day in the next year and a half serve to drive the price down, potentially back into the 30's and 40's until demand can catch up? I'd welcome comments on NG, but my question really relates to oil prices and how they might be impacted by the new capacity coming on-line out of the Permian 2H 2019 and 2020. Do you think we should expect a sudden drop? Uncompleted wells are stacking up in the Permian in anticipation of these pipelines coming on-line. The drilling in West Texas Permian is all time high. Many rigs have been shifted here. Reason for this: The Delaware shelf is elliptical area from northern Lea and Eddy counties NM down to Balmorhea Tx to Monahans Tx. It is ez to drill and frac, Break even cost is about 26 in the majority of the area as is shallow. The northern area is little more expensive, 42 or so per bbl. I got this info from Company man running 25 rigs in that area. Bad news is drilling wayyyy faster than can be completed, adding to the DUC well pushing 9000 by end of February. Yes many pipelines are being built but the 4' lines taking away are slow to get built. That is the issue with NG also, hence a lot of flaring. Major lines to the gulf aren't even and 1/8th completed and only one maybe will make by end of year. So don't expect any sudden rises in output in Permain. Slow to roll as they say. I think the newest estimates are a bit on the shy side of what the Permian as a whole can produce once fully functional. It will probably rival Saudi's capacity. The Colorado fields are next to get hit with activity. Some rig relocation already moving to the north. I truly believe we have the tech to extract from out own lands and sea upwards of 20mbpd in next few years. We just hit 12mbd end of January, and if we had pipeline capacity out of Permian there is 2mbd shut in till takeaway is completed. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illurion + 894 IG February 25, 2019 28 minutes ago, NickW said: Like? If you do not know, then it is a waste of time trying to tell you...... but here are a few: Brazil and Colombia have been overwhelmed by over 3.5 million refugees from Venezuela... They have asked the USA to help settle the issue.. Egypt's economy is in ruins, and they want the USA's help in increasing tourism.... MBS wants more weapons to help protect him from the Iranians......... Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic want an increase in trade with the USA, and want the USA to move military bases from Germany to their countries.... Germany has asked the USA not to move those military bases out of their country....... UK has asked the USA for an improved trade deal to counteract anything they may lose after Brexit.... India does not want the USA to reduce the number of H1 and H2 visas allocated for their country......... China does not want the USA to activate the 25% tariffs next week.......... Japan wants the USA to help neutralize North Korea......... and on, and on, and on......... some of these things we will do, others we will not.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illurion + 894 IG February 25, 2019 12 minutes ago, NickW said: One small problem - the EC in OPEC stands for Exporting Countries One bigger problem. The USA is the 1st/2nd biggest* net importer of oil on the planet *China may have overtaken the USA that (USA exporting %) is changing........... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 Just now, Illurion said: If you do not know, then it is a waste of time trying to tell you...... but here are a few: Brazil and Colombia have been overwhelmed by over 3.5 million refugees from Venezuela... They have asked the USA to help settle the issue.. Egypt's economy is in ruins, and they want the USA's help in increasing tourism.... MBS wants more weapons to help protect him from the Iranians......... Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic want an increase in trade with the USA, and want the USA to move military bases from Germany to their countries.... Germany has asked the USA not to move those military bases out of their country....... UK has asked the USA for an improved trade deal to counteract anything they may lose after Brexit.... India does not want the USA to reduce the number of H1 and H2 visas allocated for their country......... China does not want the USA to activate the 25% tariffs next week.......... Japan wants the USA to help neutralize North Korea......... and on, and on, and on......... some of these things we will do, others we will not.... You need to study geography & politics a little harder. Most those countries you mention are not in OPEC. I' have marked them in bold to give you a helping hand Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 Just now, Illurion said: that (USA exporting %) is changing........... It will have to export a hell of a lot more (or consume a lot less) to become a net exporter. The current exports are really down to the fact that the US refinery base is better equipped to handle heavy oils. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illurion + 894 IG February 25, 2019 47 minutes ago, NickW said: Russia isn't in OPEC Russia and OPEC are merged at the hip....... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Illurion said: Russia and OPEC are merged at the hip....... At the end of the day if you don't like the prices OPEC sets for its oil don't buy it. As you say its a free market. Convert your vehicle fleet to EV's - powered by wind. All home grown and no need to buy OPEC oil. That will really stick it up em! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illurion + 894 IG February 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, NickW said: You need to study geography & politics a little harder. Most those countries you mention are not in OPEC. I' have marked them in bold to give you a helping hand my initial statement that you responded to wasn't about OPEC........ it was about FAVORS............. pay attention......... and keep your hands to yourself............ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illurion + 894 IG February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, NickW said: At the end of the day if you don't like the prices OPEC sets for its oil don't buy it. As you say its a free market. Convert your vehicle fleet to EV's - powered by wind. All home grown and no need to buy OPEC oil. That will really stick it up em! exactly........ so we aren't buying as much........ that is why another thread is talking about there currently being 12 EMPTY TANKERS on their way back to the USA after dropping off our exports...... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Old-Ruffneck + 1,235 er February 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, Illurion said: Russia and OPEC are merged at the hip....... 2 minutes ago, Illurion said: my initial statement that you responded to wasn't about OPEC........ it was about FAVORS............. pay attention......... and keep your hands to yourself............ Please just ignore the "new-Red" in the room. Arguing to for arguments sake is pointless, and might be one of them college educated idiots the schools are putting out. Left wing, and probably has nothing better to do than sit here and post nonsense that he really knows not of. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illurion + 894 IG February 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said: Please just ignore the "new-Red" in the room. Arguing to for arguments sake is pointless, and might be one of them college educated idiots the schools are putting out. Left wing, and probably has nothing better to do than sit here and post nonsense that he really knows not of. i know. you are right......... but i still cannot bring myself to actually BLOCK someone....... so i continue to feed the trolls as the saying goes......... even though they aren't very interesting........ speaking of interesting, i haven't noticed any posts by Jan recently.... Hope he is ok.... i try to check the site twice daily.... if you do not hear from me for several days, i am probably in the hospital......... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 1 minute ago, Illurion said: my initial statement that you responded to wasn't about OPEC........ it was about FAVORS............. pay attention......... and keep your hands to yourself............ No - you are telling porkie pies. I said why should OPEC listen to Trump You said because their are consequences I said - Invasion? you said no, we could simply FAIL to do the things that they ASK us to do for them that they consider important.... countries are always asking the USA to do them "favors"....... mostly we do what they ask....... but doing "favors" is a two-way-street....... Now apart from the 3rd from last line there is no reference to any other country - this was about OPEC countries and their interrelationship with the USA and oil production. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illurion + 894 IG February 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, NickW said: No - you are telling porkie pies. I said why should OPEC listen to Trump You said because their are consequences I said - Invasion? you said no, we could simply FAIL to do the things that they ASK us to do for them that they consider important.... countries are always asking the USA to do them "favors"....... mostly we do what they ask....... but doing "favors" is a two-way-street....... Now apart from the 3rd from last line there is no reference to any other country - this was about OPEC countries and their interrelationship with the USA and oil production. and you said "like" .... as in "what kind of "favors".......... so i gave you a list.......... you really should pay more attention............ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TXPower + 643 TP February 25, 2019 3 hours ago, NickW said: One small problem - the EC in OPEC stands for Exporting Countries One bigger problem. The USA is the 1st/2nd biggest* net importer of oil on the planet *China may have overtaken the USA Tell that to those worrying about US Shale causing a glut on the world oil market. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nafiu Sulyman + 4 NS February 25, 2019 sounds nice. But to be honest, how long can OPEC sustain this product cut game. For all I know, it wouldn't last that long, to be honest. A better pragmatic approach should be on the table by now to prevent the 2014-type shock breakdown of the global oil market. Like it or not, that's what next on the horizon despite recent oil gains in the market. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, TXPower said: Tell that to those worrying about US Shale causing a glut on the world oil market. Kind of irrelevant really unless the USA becomes a net Oil Exporter. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 1 hour ago, Nafiu Sulyman said: sounds nice. But to be honest, how long can OPEC sustain this product cut game. For all I know, it wouldn't last that long, to be honest. A better pragmatic approach should be on the table by now to prevent the 2014-type shock breakdown of the global oil market. Like it or not, that's what next on the horizon despite recent oil gains in the market. It must be a major boon to higher cost producers - like shale oil. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 3 hours ago, Illurion said: and you said "like" .... as in "what kind of "favors".......... so i gave you a list.......... you really should pay more attention............ On a discussion about OPEC - then listing about a dozen countries that aren't OPEC members...... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TXPower + 643 TP February 25, 2019 9 minutes ago, NickW said: Kind of irrelevant really unless the USA becomes a net Oil Exporter. Is it? The price drop into the $50’s back in October tells a different story. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 Just now, TXPower said: Is it? The price drop into the $50’s back in October tells a different story. Again completely irrelevant. When will the USA become a net oil exporter? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Illurion + 894 IG February 25, 2019 11 minutes ago, NickW said: On a discussion about OPEC - then listing about a dozen countries that aren't OPEC members...... I was talking about FAVORS.... NOT OPEC.... pay attention..... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW February 25, 2019 3 minutes ago, Illurion said: I was talking about FAVORS.... NOT OPEC.... pay attention..... Have the good grace then to notify the other party that you are switching subject. Going off on a tangent to discuss US grace and favour to non OPEC members is poor discussion form when the crux of the conversation is about US - OPEC interrelations. But on subject then . Why should OPEC listen to Trump? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TXPower + 643 TP February 25, 2019 5 minutes ago, NickW said: Again completely irrelevant. When will the USA become a net oil exporter? You are the one on about that. I’m pointing out that shale oil from the US on the world market can affect world oil prices. Just as a loss of production or an increase from other oil producing nations can affect world oil price. I never said the US is, was or will be a net exporter of oil. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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