Electric Cars Making Gas Cars As Obsolete As ‘Flip Phones’

14 hours ago, DA? said:

No technologies often need help to break into a market. The USA tax credits are already starting to go for Tesla and now GM. Not sure were you get this tax payers are going to have to pay trillions for infrastructure, it's been built now. The cost of EV's is coming down sharply and will be cheaper than an ICE in a few years. Tesla Model 3 is basically the same price when compared to other luxury cars of the same class.

Then don't forget all the savings in health and well as financial getting rid of all that pollution in urban areas. This costs the tax payer billions every year.

EV's as renewables are a developing industry (that are creating masses of jobs) and aren't yet mature, give it till 2025 and then see how things have changed.

I think you missed the point.  Venture capitalist, risk takers and the existing industry should be the ones putting their capital at risk to introduce new technologies to the market, with their objective being profitability.  This socialistic/communistic approach we now have where elitist government officials decide who will be winners and losers via wealth redistribution laws (in this case tax credits to benefit EV purchasers) is immoral.  Contrary to these same peoples' thinking, tax dollars are not produced out of thin air.  Why should an EV purchaser receive $10K in cash benefit from his/her fellow tax payers so he/she can have an electric car?  It's grand theft.  Then on top of that EV cars don't pay their share of road taxes since they aren't using gasoline.  Another theft.  EVs currently impose minimal demand on an already outdated power infrastructure that is highly susceptible to attacks and huge outage risks.  Nobody builds infrastructure without some expected payout.  It only makes sense that those imposing the huge increase in power demand should pay for most if not all of that cost infrastructure expansion cost.  No one has yet talked about transportation energy diversification as a national security issue; it is.  If all or a majority of ground based transportation becomes totally dependent on the power grid, then small pinpointed attacks by terrorists will be able to cause much greater damage when vehicles can't get the resources to the problem.  There are a multitude of benefits, dangers and unintended consequences, many which have been ignored in the left leaning press.  The best way to progress is to allow the free market and unpoliticised (if there still is such a thing) science to address all aspects (cost, profitability, hazards, benefits, etc.) and take the elitist politics and wealth redistribution out of it.   Anything short of that is foolishness.  This is not at all saying that industry and investors should not pursue EVs.  That's their decision.  If they can make a better product and the markets (without the government perverting things) favor it, then great for everyone.

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13 hours ago, JunoTen said:

Used EV batteries can be then used for storage of electricity produced by a power plant.

That is not disposal that is projected use that may not even occur. 

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17 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Are you saying that the lithium can be reused economically? If disposed of, how?

Apparently they can be recycled, how I don't know.

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7 hours ago, Cobra67 said:

Think you need to read Tesla's latest financial statements.  Tesla will lose its tax credit status and and has subsequently dropped the price of its vehicles.  Companies do not cut prices because sales are strong.  Adjusting for the loss of tax credit story is hog wash.  Tesla sells its Green credits to other industries that must comply with state and federal GHG limits.  Government working for you!  That is a fact and the amount of money they earn from each vehicle is peanuts if not a loss save for government tax credits. 

No doubt EV costs are dropping quickly as economies of scale start to develop.  However, going from a 2% market share of the global auto market to 10% is not a linear function.  As EVs expand market share, the infrastructure required from using the excess in off peak hours to being on demand, all the time is going to stress the system.  Again it all comes down to cost.and who is going to pay.  Are you willing to pay for an upgraded system in the Aussie bush as your neighbors start to plug into the grid and stress the system?  Or will you just use the metro areas to charge your Tesla 3?  How about replacing Australia's coal plants (and India's and China's) with nuclear or renewables?  When it is free, it is for me.

No doubt EV are better than ICE vehicles in many categories.  But, the pace of transition is greatly exxagerated.  Reminds of the 2000 time frame when Pets.com and RubberDogPoop. com and NeverShopAgain.com were going to revolutionize the world.  Only took 15 years to realize the dream.  Hence my 2035 time frame.  Talk to me about technological advancement all you want, but the laws of ROI and cost and profit and demand and supply will nullify all that talk.  Just ask Elon how his visions of a pure robotic factory blew up in his face.  Looked great on paper and theory, but then reality hit.

Last quarters financial statement showed Tesla doing very well. At the end of Q4 only something like a thousand cars hadn't been sold, this is just cars in transport. We shall see how demand keeps up now the tax credits are going. Last year even with the ramp up of production and delivery issues Model 3 out sold the nearest comparable ICE by 3 times in the USA. If the USA government doesn't back new technologies then other countries will/are taking the pole position.

The customers will pay for the grid infrastructure, although it's not as much as often made out to be required. Home charging is like putting the kettle on. The electricity companies are looking forward to EV's as they will mean more business and will invest. Capitalism means the user pays for the product, not sure why you keep going on about it being free, the same with the generating infrastructure.

You always get the valley of disappointment with a new technology, when the promised revolution doesn't suddenly occur. But it seems we are at the point on the S curve where the tech is becoming mature enough at the right cost point for it to really take off. As we can see with the tax credits and other incentives around the world the point were customers are willing to pay isn't much less than the cost of EV's today. Norway 50% and Holland  30% plug in sales last year and people waiting years for an EV as demand is so much higher than availability shows were we are going. I normally give the year 2025 as about the time when EV's, renewables and a few other revolutionary tech's mature enough to really start dominating the markets.

One of the reason's why Musk has been so successful is he accepts failure. If you are to push as hard as you can for change you will not always succeed on the first attempt, but you learn and try again. SpaceX has changed the rocket world doing it this way and Tesla have already done what the critics have repeatedly said was impossible.   

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30 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

That is not disposal that is projected use that may not even occur. 

Already being done.

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On 1/3/2019 at 11:20 PM, shadowkin said:

There is data out there on the Model S, X compared to ICE vehicles that say otherwise. Model 3 it's too soon to say but I think it'll be a similar story.

not the only reason, but part of why they hold their value is because they are still a novelty. this value holding may not be indicative of the car itself and may not last longer term. 

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10 hours ago, specinho said:

PArdon me........ I'm not an expert..... but.............. a soft reminder that both steel and aluminium are non - renewable resources.... when everyone is competing to get the raw materials.......... many things could happen.......  quality and safety would likely be the first few things to be compromised.

Heard of a smart but not so classy idea --- carbon reinforced plastic............ ^_^ It's hard + cheap + synthetic.......................

Who fancies driving a plasticy car?? :S

Aluminum and steel are highly recyclable.

I've bought a couple carbon fiber bicycles - they are great - no fatigue fractures like aluminum and they don't rust.  Carbon fiber is repairable too.

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17 hours ago, ronwagn said:

That is not disposal that is projected use that may not even occur. 

It has been happening for some time.

Aug 3, 2018 - The market for battery recycling is expected to grow to $3.5 billion, and the market for second-life batteries could reach $4.2 billion by 2025, claim the analysts. ... The report states EV batteries have optimal properties to be reused for energy storage, with regards to their capacity and remaining life-cycles.
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On 1/5/2019 at 10:35 AM, specinho said:

PArdon me........ I'm not an expert..... but.............. a soft reminder that both steel and aluminium are non - renewable resources.... when everyone is competing to get the raw materials.......... many things could happen.......  quality and safety would likely be the first few things to be compromised.

Heard of a smart but not so classy idea --- carbon reinforced plastic............ ^_^ It's hard + cheap + synthetic.......................

Who fancies driving a plasticy car?? :S

Aluminum and steel are both recyclable. This is one reason that aluminum cans have the highest value per weight at our recycling center. I could find you many references to steel recycling. I have read articles in my daughter's civil engineering publications about the recyclability of steel for structural components. 

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On 1/4/2019 at 4:57 AM, Robert Ziegler said:

Driving a Golf Cart when living in a Golf Cart Community (a small island) makes a lot of sense.

Golf Cart Community.jpeg

I find this photo amusing.

Electric cars have amazing torque that is fun to use (when safe). One of the greatest threats to drivers here on my island are the kamikaze deer that sometimes run across the roads. I have read that the 0 to 60 miles per hour time is faster for a Tesla than for most muscle cars. 

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On 1/3/2019 at 5:54 PM, Robert Ziegler said:

Just bought my 3/4 ton Power Wagon, with a nice 400hp NA V8, and intend to keep it to my end, thank you. My son then will be highly interested taking it over, and run it past some fragile EVs out of juice...... I guarantee, it will be around and thumpin' when there is no more printed Wall Street Journal...... And when Houston floods again, there will be exactly ZERO EVs on the road.

Slide1.jpg

...but did your p_e n 1 $ grow?

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On 1/3/2019 at 6:54 PM, Robert Ziegler said:

Just bought my 3/4 ton Power Wagon, with a nice 400hp NA V8, and intend to keep it to my end, thank you. My son then will be highly interested taking it over, and run it past some fragile EVs out of juice...... I guarantee, it will be around and thumpin' when there is no more printed Wall Street Journal...... And when Houston floods again, there will be exactly ZERO EVs on the road.

Slide1.jpg

 

I have to agree - when Houston floods again all the EVs will have left town.  All the macho trucks will be waiting in line at the gas station hoping they can get enough fuel to make it to the next gas station...

Tesla designs their electric motors to do over 1,000,000 miles.

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7 hours ago, Janet Alderton said:

Aluminum and steel are both recyclable. This is one reason that aluminum cans have the highest value per weight at our recycling center. I could find you many references to steel recycling. I have read articles in my daughter's civil engineering publications about the recyclability of steel for structural components. 

Aluminum cans are "food-grade aluminum" and command higher price than more porous scrap aluminums ie: gutters, house siding, lawn chairs etc. 

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On 1/3/2019 at 7:54 PM, Robert Ziegler said:

Just bought my 3/4 ton Power Wagon, with a nice 400hp NA V8, and intend to keep it to my end, thank you. My son then will be highly interested taking it over, and run it past some fragile EVs out of juice...... I guarantee, it will be around and thumpin' when there is no more printed Wall Street Journal...... And when Houston floods again, there will be exactly ZERO EVs on the road.

Slide1.jpg

Some interesting developments in the pickup world

https://insideevs.com/lone-rivian-r1t-electric-truck-video/

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1120759_atlis-xt-500-mile-electric-truck-to-challenge-detroit-3s-pickup-dominance

https://www.theverge.com/2018/10/10/17961494/bollinger-motors-b2-electric-pickup-truck

While none are currently available, they are slated for production soon. I think you'll soon see some pretty awesome electric trucks

This is going to be fascinating to watch.

 

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22 hours ago, Janet Alderton said:

Aluminum and steel are both recyclable. This is one reason that aluminum cans have the highest value per weight at our recycling center. I could find you many references to steel recycling. I have read articles in my daughter's civil engineering publications about the recyclability of steel for structural components. 

 

15 hours ago, mthebold said:

 

As Janet points out, it's not entirely appropriate to label metals "non-renewable" because they're recyclable.  This makes them just as "renewable" as any carbon-based material, which is just recycled carbon.

That said, we'll see more carbon fiber in vehicles when the cost comes down.  Designers are already incorporating it into performance vehicles, where weight and sexiness matter more than cost, but the manufacturing technology is just too slow for mass-produced vehicles.  It may-or-may-not get there. 

Thank you Janet and mthebold for pointing that out...........

Recycling aluminium cans to make cars............. hhhmmmmmm........... :S

Yes. There was a suggestion to recycle the body of old scrap cars as material. But the procedure would probably be a little tedious. For example..... removing the paint; removing the rust; melting; moulding; cutting etc....... but can be done.......... 

Regarding the plasticy-looking-carbon-fiber-car............... it might not be the technology.............The demand for those not so shiny cars might probably be lacking.......... The dull surface could be more eye-catchy and desirable if something like wood finishing be applied so that it shines like a "mistaken metal"............. as if..... to reduce the differentces between a corn and pop corn....... something ought to be done........... xD

it-is-hot-outside_o_502270.jpg

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1 minute ago, specinho said:

 

Thank you Janet and mthebold for pointing that out...........

Recycling aluminium cans to make cars............. hhhmmmmmm........... :S

Yes. There was a suggestion to recycle the body of old scrap cars as material. But the procedure would probably be a little tedious. For example..... removing the paint; removing the rust; melting; moulding; cutting etc....... but can be done.......... 

 

What do you think happens to old or wrecked cars?  It's not a "suggestion", it is a fact.

According to steel.org " More than 14 million cars in North America were recycled in 2006. "

~86% of steel used is recycled.

Aluminum is also highly recycled at about 75%.

Aluminium loses no quality during recycling and can be recycled forever. Steel loses no quality during recycling and can be recycled endlessly.

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2 hours ago, John N Denver said:

What do you think happens to old or wrecked cars?  It's not a "suggestion", it is a fact.

According to steel.org " More than 14 million cars in North America were recycled in 2006. "

~86% of steel used is recycled.

Aluminum is also highly recycled at about 75%.

Aluminium loses no quality during recycling and can be recycled forever. Steel loses no quality during recycling and can be recycled endlessly.

Actually like all metals, when smelted down they need add certain metals to give it it's tinsel strength. A lead bullet without any additives is soft an mushy and good for deer slugs (low speed). Where as a 9mm needs arsenic and other metals to make harder so they no evaporate at 1750 feet per second. Then some get the ol' copper jacket. 

So it's a little more complicated but yes, they recycling in this country has hit all time highs post world war 2. Some serious fascinating reading on metallurgy if one cares to read. From where we have come in the last 25 years is enormous. 

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Ah, so nice to see all the usual pro-EV arguments and hopes presented as facts. Love it.

Here's some interesting info I thought merited a separate thread but is also pertinent to this discussion:

 

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5 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

Ah, so nice to see all the usual pro-EV arguments and hopes presented as facts. Love it.

Here's some interesting info I thought merited a separate thread but is also pertinent to this discussion:

 

Factual Hope is not at all an oxymoron. It's just positive vibes on steroids, combined with willful ignoringfullness.

 

7125fe87cc48796873c7320561a219918be923220153f9c5c4d787af5b955ab1.jpg

 

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The take up of EV's in Europe is astonishing. In Norway 60% of new vehicle sales are EV( https://electrek.co/2018/10/01/electric-vehicle-sales-new-record-norway-tesla/)

The EV take-up strategy I have adopted is to buy good quality USED diesel cars and will continue to do so until the EV technologies have been ironed out.

When the re-charge interval reaches the 5-10 minutes you get with petrol/gas and the infrastructure has been built out to enable recharge sites then I will have a good look at whats around.

More diesel scare stories please :-)

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On 1/6/2019 at 2:08 PM, Janet Alderton said:

I find this photo amusing.

Golf Cart Community.jpeg

Looks like Saint Johns County,  near the World Golf Village...

Sonny's has such great BBQ.

When my Sister-In-Law visits from Oklahoma,  the first thing she does is hit Sonny's...

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(edited)

On 1/6/2019 at 8:14 PM, mthebold said:

Good point.  A third consideration might be availability of aluminum.  The Models S & X were relatively low volume, but the 3 would require serious quantities of metal.  With other automakers also incorporating aluminum, demand may temporarily exceed what the aluminum industry can economically produce. 

It will be interesting to see what they do with future vehicles. 

I really want an EV,  but am waiting for the price to go down.

Will probably buy a Tesla when i can,  as i like what Musk did with SPACEX.

Loved that he sent a Tesla convertible into space....!

It is just so crazy,   that you have to give him credit for having the balls to do it.

 

(ps:  that convertible reminds me of my old 1965 MG-B)

 

My big fear about EV's though,  is that they are so small,  and so vulnerable.

They are like rolling coffins...

The odds are you are dead if you get hit by a regular car...

Edited by Illurion

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5 hours ago, Philbo said:

The take up of EV's in Europe is astonishing. In Norway 60% of new vehicle sales are EV( https://electrek.co/2018/10/01/electric-vehicle-sales-new-record-norway-tesla/)

The EV take-up strategy I have adopted is to buy good quality USED diesel cars and will continue to do so until the EV technologies have been ironed out.

When the re-charge interval reaches the 5-10 minutes you get with petrol/gas and the infrastructure has been built out to enable recharge sites then I will have a good look at whats around.

More diesel scare stories please 🙂

If you have room to charge it at home and that is all that most people require for distances done it takes less time than driving to and filling up at a gas station, just plug it in and then before going unplug, seconds.

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10 minutes ago, mthebold said:

EV's small and vulnerable?  Noooooooooooo.  Quite the opposite, in fact. 

To begin with, let's put this in perspective: if you get run over by a semi, you're going to die.  That's as true in an F-350 as it is in a Smart Fourtwo Electric.  The question at hand is, "How does EV safety compare to an ICE vehicle in the same market segment?"  As it turns out, EVs are heavier and sturdier - esp. the Teslas, which are built with a floor battery.  They also have lower centers of gravity, and are just as - if not more - difficult to crush.  The low center of gravity and ability to absorb impact energy are a function of how much mass is present and where that mass is placed.  In an EV, there's lots of mass, and it's located such that the impacting car's bumper will ram right into it.  That's good for collisions.  By comparison, an ICE has much of its mass concentrated in the engine & transmission, with two negative consequences:
1)  There's less mass distributed around the vehicle to absorb impacts from all directions.
2)  In a frontal collision, the ICE tends to get pushed directly into the front seats, which tends to kill the occupants. 

So yes, you can get a safer ICE vehicle if you purchase a sufficiently large one - full size SUVs come to mind - but that has much higher total life cycle cost.  If you compare an EV within its market segment or to vehicles with comparable costs, the EV is most likely safer. 

I drive big steel cars now.

But,  Ok..

Good.

Please buy me a Tesla Convertible like my old MG-B..

I am old,  sick,  and going to kick off soon anyway.

So it doesn't matter how i kick off.

In fact,  maybe if i kick off in an accident,  my Wife will get double-indemnity on my life insurance.  ☺️

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5 hours ago, mthebold said:

Yeah, safety isn't a primary concern for me either; I was just saying. 

so I've chosen a more practical theology: Odinism.  I shall die a worthy death in battle and let the Valkyries take me to Valhalla. 

It may be a bit of a challenge finding that battle though; modern societies tend to frown upon mercenaries, dueling, pillaging, etc.

Excellent,   i have just the mercenary job for you:

You need to dress up as a Viking,  and go to all of the rallies of the terrorist group that calls itself ANTIFA...

Use your sword and axe to kill all of the antifa's....

That would be very useful to the world. 9_9

The antifa's are so pantywaist,  that you will win every battle and never die....

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