*Happy Dance* ... U.S. Shale Oil Slowdown

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, cbrasher1 said:

Again, I believe there is more discipline being used.  You just cannot continue in business, any business without profitability, investors and banks will not stand for it in any industry.  Are you making a killing? probably not, but the big company earnings suggest money is being made and used wisely to satisfy growth and investors.  @Tom Kirkman you harp in several threads of shale being non profitable, am just curious and seeking clarification of your who, smaller operations, service sector (halliburton, schlumberger) etc.  Someone HAS to be making money, the activity out here in the Permian has not slowed.  If that is the case, why not just bail, shutdown, file bankrupcy and tell your investors "sorry"?  I guess maybe I do not understand your mindset or I'm missing something when you say no money is being made and just a continued mounting of debt.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Has-A-Glaring-Problem.html

The ongoing struggles raises questions about the long-term. If the industry is still not profitable – after a decade of drilling, after major efficiency improvements since 2014, and after a sharp rebound in oil prices – when will it ever be profitable? Is there something fundamentally problematic about the nature of shale drilling, which suffers from steep decline rates over relatively short periods of time and requires constant spending and drilling to maintain?

[Illurion + 894]

On 2/11/2019 at 8:19 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Um, "unexpected" ????????????

Sometimes I feel like nobody pays attention to the things I keep repeating over and over and over and over again...

Top story right now on Oil Price main news site:

An Unexpected Bullish Factor For Oil

U.S. shale drilling activity is set to slow this year as companies respond to lower oil prices. However, a lower WTI price is not the only reason for the deceleration. A series of lingering operational issues that have long been papered over by relentless drilling are starting to become increasingly apparent, while pressure from Wall Street is also forcing a reckoning.  

My personal view is U.S. Shale Oil production should start cutting back in H1 this year, and avoid an increase in Shale Oil overproduction. 

The $50 WTI bugbear appears to be the safety relief valve for 2019.  If WTI stays close to or below $50, I expect new drilling to be put on hold this year.  And combined with the hefty decline rates of Shale Oil wells, excessive overproduction (like in the 2014 / 2015 crash) may be avoided.

Also, sub - $50 WTI should choke off excess U.S. Shale Oil production pretty darn quick, as well as severely curtail new drilling for shale oil, which would further reduce future production.  Should know more by end of this month.

 

I have been out of action for almost a month now.

Looking back...

For several months,  the price of WTI has been holding,   back and forth,   between $51 & $53 per barrel,   with the exception of a 2 week drop to $45 in December 2018...

In your opinion Tom,    is $51 to $53 enough to be " SUSTAIN-ABLY STABLE ? "

In other words,  IS IT THE "SWEET SPOT"....   THE "MIDDLE" SIZE BED...   NOT TOO SMALL,  NOT TOO LARGE....  BUT JUST RIGHT....

Edited February 13, 2019 by Illurion

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

1 hour ago, Illurion said:

I have been out of action for almost a month now.

Looking back...

For several months,  the price of WTI has been holding,   back and forth,   between $51 & $53 per barrel,   with the exception of a 2 week drop to $45 in December 2018...

In your opinion Tom,    is $51 to $53 enough to be " SUSTAIN-ABLY STABLE ? "

In other words,  IS IT THE "SWEET SPOT"....   THE "MIDDLE" SIZE BED...   NOT TOO SMALL,  NOT TOO LARGE....  BUT JUST RIGHT....

I am not Tom, but I can say that after talking with a company man in charge of 25 rigs in the s.e.New Mexico to Pecos to Balmorhea TX area, he said they are now drilling 6 laterals at 15 to 20k, deeper than they are drilling in most cases every 30 days. Depending on each rig zone some break even at 24 or less, some as high as 46 bux. No wonder they they are slamming the Delaware basin so heavy. Rig count there is up, one just needs to take a ride. Around Ft. Stockton few new rigs up and running and I see new flares, meaning completion is about done. Takes as long to frack the well as to drill. So DUC well count would be interesting in weekly stats.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

9 hours ago, Illurion said:

I have been out of action for almost a month now.

Looking back...

For several months,  the price of WTI has been holding,   back and forth,   between $51 & $53 per barrel,   with the exception of a 2 week drop to $45 in December 2018...

In your opinion Tom,    is $51 to $53 enough to be " SUSTAIN-ABLY STABLE ? "

In other words,  IS IT THE "SWEET SPOT"....   THE "MIDDLE" SIZE BED...   NOT TOO SMALL,  NOT TOO LARGE....  BUT JUST RIGHT....

Great to have you back again, Illurion; take care of yourself.

$50 WTI seems to be the centerpoint that many U.S. Shale Oil producers have settled on, for their production decision making.

That's not my call, I'm just observing what seems fairly obvious to me.  Actions by U.S. Shale generally seem to focus on the mostly psychological number of $50 WTI.

[TXPower + 643]

I’m unclear on exactly what PPB each producer determines to be profitable but I can tell you when WTI first dropped in the fall we did agree to a reduced rate per load of proppant.  Several of our competitors pulled out of the area.

Although prices were in a nosedive, we have continued to move lots of product with the exception of the Christmas slowdown.  We have signed 3 new contracts in the last 2 months.

It may be funded by a credit bubble but drilling and pumping continues.  From what we are hearing in the patch however, my sense is the free spending seen from about 2014 till last fall, is waning.  

[Bangelsfan + 3]

17 minutes ago, TXPower said:

I’m unclear on exactly what PPB each producer determines to be profitable but I can tell you when WTI first dropped in the fall we did agree to a reduced rate per load of proppant.  Several of our competitors pulled out of the area.

Although prices were in a nosedive, we have continued to move lots of product with the exception of the Christmas slowdown.  We have signed 3 new contracts in the last 2 months.

It may be funded by a credit bubble but drilling and pumping continues.  From what we are hearing in the patch however, my sense is the free spending seen from about 2014 till last fall, is 

I'm hoping the Venezuela crisis can be resolved soon and citgo is available for investment 

[Mike Shellman + 548]

On ‎2‎/‎11‎/‎2019 at 7:19 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

 

I could go on and on and on and on yet again, but if people didn't pay attention the first few dozen times, repeating it again prolly won't help much. 

 

You've learned a great deal about well economics over the years, @Tom Kirkman; don't give up trying to get the message across. Its important. I roughnecked my entire life, still do, and am a royalty owner to boot; its hard to understand well economics until you've balanced an oil wells checkbook. Everyone has an opinion but you have to pay some bills and see if you get your money back to really get it.

Productivity is not the same as profitability and as long as (shale) oil extraction in America is in the hands of private enterprise (thankfully), long term sustainability is ultimately dependent on profitability. The term "breakeven" has confused many non-oily folks, intentionally, I might add, and nothing has improved financially for the US shale oil phenomena. It is still deeply in debt, adding more debt every day, and as rising GOR starts to rear her ugly head, terminal decline rates for shale oil wells are becoming clearer and more worrisome. Sweet spots are being hammered, wells interfere with each other and as gas increases, and liquids decrease, there is no where to go with it other than up in smoke. It does not generate revenue going up a flare stack and the BOE thing is BUNK. The longer and deeper the shale oil industry stays, and gets into debt the harder it will be to ever get out of debt.

On an interesting note, I've done a bottoms up analysis on Chevron's 1.9MM acres in the PB containing net revenue interest of <0.96000 and it is remarkable what the lack of royalty burdens do to shale oil economics. It reduces time to pay out by 2 years, in many cases, and adds 60% or more to ROI. Chevron, and to a lesser extent, Exxon, are going to do OK in the PB. With a monopoly on takeaway, services, water, sand, and debt they can manage they will rule the Permian.

Keep up the good work!

Mike

PS: Lets hope all these cows don't start floating away and interfering with air traffic. Oh, I forgot, there won't be anymore air traffic. https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2019/02/11/Cartoon-Of-the-Week

 

 

 

 

Edited February 16, 2019 by Mike Shellman

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

13 hours ago, Mike Shellman said:

You've learned a great deal about well economics over the years, @Tom Kirkman; don't give up trying to get the message across. Its important. I roughnecked my entire life, still do, and am a royalty owner to boot; its hard to understand well economics until you've balanced an oil wells checkbook. Everyone has an opinion but you have to pay some bills and see if you get your money back to really get it.

Productivity is not the same as profitability and as long as (shale) oil extraction in America is in the hands of private enterprise (thankfully), long term sustainability is ultimately dependent on profitability. The term "breakeven" has confused many non-oily folks, intentionally, I might add, and nothing has improved financially for the US shale oil phenomena. It is still deeply in debt, adding more debt every day, and as rising GOR starts to rear her ugly head, terminal decline rates for shale oil wells are becoming clearer and more worrisome. Sweet spots are being hammered, wells interfere with each other and as gas increases, and liquids decrease, there is no where to go with it other than up in smoke. It does not generate revenue going up a flare stack and the BOE thing is BUNK. The longer and deeper the shale oil industry stays, and gets into debt the harder it will be to ever get out of debt.

On an interesting note, I've done a bottoms up analysis on Chevron's 1.9MM acres in the PB containing net revenue interest of <0.96000 and it is remarkable what the lack of royalty burdens do to shale oil economics. It reduces time to pay out by 2 years, in many cases, and adds 60% or more to ROI. Chevron, and to a lesser extent, Exxon, are going to do OK in the PB. With a monopoly on takeaway, services, water, sand, and debt they can manage they will rule the Permian.

Keep up the good work!

Mike

PS: Lets hope all these cows don't start floating away and interfering with air traffic. Oh, I forgot, there won't be anymore air traffic. https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2019/02/11/Cartoon-Of-the-Week

Thanks for the amusingly ironic reciprocation, Mike.  Most of the readers here probably have little or no ideathat I egged you on over the years to keep on discussing the realities of Shale Oil economics and general (un)profitability, despite your reason and logic apparently falling mostly on deaf ears.

Gets frustrating sometimes.

But, seeing as I am pretty much a motormouth commentor about oil & gas, I'll take your kind advice keep on keepin' on and goin' on about this.

Have a great weekend.

[Ian Austin + 131]

12 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Thanks for the amusingly ironic reciprocation, Mike.  Most of the readers here probably have little or no ideathat I egged you on over the years to keep on discussing the realities of Shale Oil economics and general (un)profitability, despite your reason and logic apparently falling mostly on deaf ears.

Gets frustrating sometimes.

But, seeing as I am pretty much a motormouth commentor about oil & gas, I'll take your kind advice keep on keepin' on and goin' on about this.

Have a great weekend.

Hopefully this doesn’t ruffle too many feathers. However, for most Americans, the Shale industry has become a source of national pride/ego. Hence, there’s now an emotional attachment  

Logic and emotion reside in different universes as it pertains to decision making, or opinion forming in this case. 

Us Canadians have much the same issue with our Oilsands 

[Mike Shellman + 548]

@Ian Austinthat is a very astute observation, Ian. It does not matter much how expensive it is, how unprofitable it is, shale oil is uniquely American. You cannot get anyone even remotely associated with it, or benefiting from it directly or indirectly to see it any other way than a miracle, a revolution. When you are 22 trillion dollars in national debt, 13.5 trillion in household debt and have another 45 trillion of corporate debt, $280 billion of shale oil debt is chump change.

[TXPower + 643]

1 hour ago, Mike Shellman said:

@Ian Austinthat is a very astute observation, Ian. It does not matter much how expensive it is, how unprofitable it is, shale oil is uniquely American. You cannot get anyone even remotely associated with it, or benefiting from it directly or indirectly to see it any other way than a miracle, a revolution. When you are 22 trillion dollars in national debt, 13.5 trillion in household debt and have another 45 trillion of corporate debt, $280 billion of shale oil debt is chump change.

Mr. Shellman, thank you for posting here on this site.  I look forward to your informative outlook from many years in every aspect of this business.

I have some ownership in a company engaged in the transport of frac sand.  Admittedly, my decision to invest in this venture was motivated by, yes, quick ROI leading ultimately to some real profitability.  

I tried to learn as much as I could before I shelled out the capital but unfortunately didn’t find and join this site until after the shot was fired.  What I found prior to signing on the dotted line was exactly what you are talking about, lots of folks peddling information either deluded with black gold fever, willfull blindness and/or a general unwillingness or inability to provide the real truth.

You and @Tom Kirkmanhave been dispensing to me and others here on this site  a heapin helpin of what I really needed before my investment.  As an added bonus however, I now know more about the business and associated economics of gettin the WTI oily-stuff out of the ground than I could have imagined.  As much as can be learned from my current position anyway.  

You and Tom have taught me the “why” concerning the hamster wheel of the shale oil debt bubble in its current configuration.  I have also learned enough to this point to concur with you, Tom and @Ian Austin that logic in this mess has flown the coupe and is replaced with what Ian correctly describes as a sort of national pride/ego pseudo-logic.

I have recently come to view this situation as the US’ own unique form of social-capitalism (can I say that?).  I arrived at this conclusion because I see similarities with the mortgage bubble burst of 2008, which arguably was due to making loans to folks who really couldn’t have hoped to successfully pay back.  All so that America could pat itself on the back over all the new homeowners historically incapable of securing mortgage loans they really didn’t qualify for and as already mentioned, couldn’t afford to pay back.  A truly socialist approach to “leveling the playing field”.  Essentially we redistributed the wealth of our taxpayers to the unqualified from a credit worthy and ability to payback standpoint, and from there the wealth was funneled to the Wallstreet crooks that have since benefitted from the foreclosures and associated financial derivatives malfeasance.   The US Tax Payer was forced to become a sort of after-the-fact, co-signer for a debt we didn’t want and can’t afford.

With shale oil I see much the same.  Someone (I’m still trying to understand exactly who?) is knowingly and freely loaning money to oil firms so that we can bounce around the shale plays like Sheriff Ricochet Rabbit drilling wells and then the next and the next and so on, robbing Peter to pay Paul, with little hope that this thing will ever become truly profitable.  All, so we can pat ourselves on the back about energy independence and the supposed boon to our economy.  These firms in the shale plays aren’t what we’d call “too big to fail” like the banks involved in 2008 meltdown from what I can see.  But, I have a sinking feeling that when this facade falls away and it’s time to settle up, the American Tax Payer is going to be left holding the tab again.  

May investment thus far is paying off, quickly.  But, I can’t help but feel like it’s the same type of wealth redistribution.  I’m profiting from the shale oil game every time our trucks take sand to a well-head.  I likely will be well into ROI before this thing bursts having gained wealth and some assets.  Unfortunately, I fear eventually taxpayers who didn’t agree to engage this roulette wheel will be asked to co-sign on the bad debt after it comes to full fruition.  For the good of the nation and economy of course.....

Long post I know but I wanted you to know that your’s and Tom’s siren sounding isn’t going unheard or un-heeded.  Even if it’s just a few oil outsiders like myself.  I regularly discuss with others now the un-sustainability and impracticality of shale oil under current conditions.  I love this country, almost as much as I love Texas.  We’ve gotta rethink this shale oil thing.

[Illurion + 894]

9 minutes ago, TXPower said:

Mr. Shellman, thank you for posting here on this site.  I look forward to your informative outlook from many years in every aspect of this business.

I have some ownership in a company engaged in the transport of frac sand.  Admittedly, my decision to invest in this venture was motivated by, yes, quick ROI leading ultimately to some real profitability.  

I tried to learn as much as I could before I shelled out the capital but unfortunately didn’t find and join this site until after the shot was fired.  What I found prior to signing on the dotted line was exactly what you are talking about, lots of folks peddling information either deluded with black gold fever, willfull blindness and/or a general unwillingness or inability to provide the real truth.

You and @Tom Kirkmanhave been dispensing to me and others here on this site  a heapin helpin of what I really needed before my investment.  As an added bonus however, I now know more about the business and associated economics of gettin the WTI oily-stuff out of the ground than I could have imagined.  As much as can be learned from my current position anyway.  

You and Tom have taught me the “why” concerning the hamster wheel of the shale oil debt bubble in its current configuration.  I have also learned enough to this point to concur with you, Tom and @Ian Austin that logic in this mess has flown the coupe and is replaced with what Ian correctly describes as a sort of national pride/ego pseudo-logic.

I have recently come to view this situation as the US’ own unique form of social-capitalism (can I say that?).  I arrived at this conclusion because I see similarities with the mortgage bubble burst of 2008, which arguably was due to making loans to folks who really couldn’t have hoped to successfully pay back.  All so that America could pat itself on the back over all the new homeowners historically incapable of securing mortgage loans they really didn’t qualify for and as already mentioned, couldn’t afford to pay back.  A truly socialist approach to “leveling the playing field”.  Essentially we redistributed the wealth of our taxpayers to the unqualified from a credit worthy and ability to payback standpoint, and from there the wealth was funneled to the Wallstreet crooks that have since benefitted from the foreclosures and associated financial derivatives malfeasance.   The US Tax Payer was forced to become a sort of after-the-fact, co-signer for a debt we didn’t want and can’t afford.

With shale oil I see much the same.  Someone (I’m still trying to understand exactly who?) is knowingly and freely loaning money to oil firms so that we can bounce around the shale plays like Sheriff Ricochet Rabbit drilling wells and then the next and the next and so on, robbing Peter to pay Paul, with little hope that this thing will ever become truly profitable.  All, so we can pat ourselves on the back about energy independence and the supposed boon to our economy.  These firms in the shale plays aren’t what we’d call “too big to fail” like the banks involved in 2008 meltdown from what I can see.  But, I have a sinking feeling that when this facade falls away and it’s time to settle up, the American Tax Payer is going to be left holding the tab again.  

May investment thus far is paying off, quickly.  But, I can’t help but feel like it’s the same type of wealth redistribution.  I’m profiting from the shale oil game every time our trucks take sand to a well-head.  I likely will be well into ROI before this thing bursts having gained wealth and some assets.  Unfortunately, I fear eventually taxpayers who didn’t agree to engage this roulette wheel will be asked to co-sign on the bad debt after it comes to full fruition.  For the good of the nation and economy of course.....

Long post I know but I wanted you to know that your’s and Tom’s siren sounding isn’t going unheard or un-heeded.  Even if it’s just a few oil outsiders like myself.  I regularly discuss with others now the un-sustainability and impracticality of shale oil under current conditions.  I love this country, almost as much as I love Texas.  We’ve gotta rethink this shale oil thing.

Extremely good post.

I enjoyed reading it.

Your "social-capitalism" term is a pretty good description...   I hope it catches on,  and you get the credit for "coining" the phrase,  as the saying goes.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, TXPower said:

Mr. Shellman, thank you for posting here on this site.  I look forward to your informative outlook from many years in every aspect of this business.

I have some ownership in a company engaged in the transport of frac sand.  Admittedly, my decision to invest in this venture was motivated by, yes, quick ROI leading ultimately to some real profitability.  

I tried to learn as much as I could before I shelled out the capital but unfortunately didn’t find and join this site until after the shot was fired.  What I found prior to signing on the dotted line was exactly what you are talking about, lots of folks peddling information either deluded with black gold fever, willfull blindness and/or a general unwillingness or inability to provide the real truth.

You and @Tom Kirkmanhave been dispensing to me and others here on this site  a heapin helpin of what I really needed before my investment.  As an added bonus however, I now know more about the business and associated economics of gettin the WTI oily-stuff out of the ground than I could have imagined.  As much as can be learned from my current position anyway.  

You and Tom have taught me the “why” concerning the hamster wheel of the shale oil debt bubble in its current configuration.  I have also learned enough to this point to concur with you, Tom and @Ian Austin that logic in this mess has flown the coupe and is replaced with what Ian correctly describes as a sort of national pride/ego pseudo-logic.

I have recently come to view this situation as the US’ own unique form of social-capitalism (can I say that?).  I arrived at this conclusion because I see similarities with the mortgage bubble burst of 2008, which arguably was due to making loans to folks who really couldn’t have hoped to successfully pay back.  All so that America could pat itself on the back over all the new homeowners historically incapable of securing mortgage loans they really didn’t qualify for and as already mentioned, couldn’t afford to pay back.  A truly socialist approach to “leveling the playing field”.  Essentially we redistributed the wealth of our taxpayers to the unqualified from a credit worthy and ability to payback standpoint, and from there the wealth was funneled to the Wallstreet crooks that have since benefitted from the foreclosures and associated financial derivatives malfeasance.   The US Tax Payer was forced to become a sort of after-the-fact, co-signer for a debt we didn’t want and can’t afford.

With shale oil I see much the same.  Someone (I’m still trying to understand exactly who?) is knowingly and freely loaning money to oil firms so that we can bounce around the shale plays like Sheriff Ricochet Rabbit drilling wells and then the next and the next and so on, robbing Peter to pay Paul, with little hope that this thing will ever become truly profitable.  All, so we can pat ourselves on the back about energy independence and the supposed boon to our economy.  These firms in the shale plays aren’t what we’d call “too big to fail” like the banks involved in 2008 meltdown from what I can see.  But, I have a sinking feeling that when this facade falls away and it’s time to settle up, the American Tax Payer is going to be left holding the tab again.  

May investment thus far is paying off, quickly.  But, I can’t help but feel like it’s the same type of wealth redistribution.  I’m profiting from the shale oil game every time our trucks take sand to a well-head.  I likely will be well into ROI before this thing bursts having gained wealth and some assets.  Unfortunately, I fear eventually taxpayers who didn’t agree to engage this roulette wheel will be asked to co-sign on the bad debt after it comes to full fruition.  For the good of the nation and economy of course.....

Long post I know but I wanted you to know that your’s and Tom’s siren sounding isn’t going unheard or un-heeded.  Even if it’s just a few oil outsiders like myself.  I regularly discuss with others now the un-sustainability and impracticality of shale oil under current conditions.  I love this country, almost as much as I love Texas.  We’ve gotta rethink this shale oil thing.

Thanks for your kind words, @TXPower.  Your feedback and encouragement really made my day.  Much appreciated.

[Mike Shellman + 548]

@TXPower  thank you, sir. That was a terrific comment and one I hope many will read. I agree with you wholeheartedly that the shale miracle is essentially a great redistribution of wealth, a form of fiscal stimulus for an otherwise fragile economy built on...debt. When that redistribution benefits people like yourself I say good! and I am happy that your business is working and prosperous. I have many friends consulting in W. Texas, working on rigs, that own businesses and minerals. I am happy for them as well. Rack it back, I tell them; nothing lasts forever in the oilfield and that going on out there in W. Texas won't either.  The Eagle Ford is on its last legs and the Bakken will be soon; it is being hammered right now and production is still going up but gas is increasing dramatically, a sure sign of depletion.

After 50 years as a hand, and a producer, I have hit my lick. Now I am concerned only for the long term hydrocarbon well being of my country. I think Americans are being duped about shale oil sustainability, that exporting, and flaring are prime examples of how our nation's last remaining oil and gas resources are being grossly mismanaged by greedy people. The chairman of Goldman Sachs International once said, economic "growth" thru use of debt is artificial, unsustainable. The shale oil and shale gas phenomena needs to be paid for before we should think of it as a "revolution."

Thanks again for the great comment. God Bless Texas.

 

 

[UsedCamelSales + 6]

Now with WTI  climbing and steady up tick last few weeks of the US oil rig count, should see a resumption of shale oil production. Mainly in the Permian as the Bakken, Wyoming and Northern shale plays are experiencing severe cold weather.  Shale oil production will be slower growth till the 4th quarter when Permian pipelines are completed and begin flowing.  If oil stays above $55, I can see US shale add to US record production of 13 to 14 million bbls per day.  This will put pressure on future price as shown in the futures contracts beyond 2020 showing contango.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,246]

6 hours ago, Mike Shellman said:

I have many friends consulting in W. Texas, working on rigs, that own businesses and minerals. I am happy for them as well. Rack it back, I tell them; nothing lasts forever in the oilfield and that going on out there in W. Texas won't either.

I have telling my buds down here the same. I've seen too many boom/bust cycles and the devastation left in wake. Driller buddy just bought a brand new house right before I came down here. I not say anything, rather not be negative but as @Tom Kirkman keeps harping on, shale will not run out but get way to expensive to extract. Seeing this outcome right now and when all the rigs are stacked out, the only thing left is service, of which will last at least 2 more years in the west Permian. Infrastructure, pipelines and finishing DUC wells will be key. I do see now some company men getting transferred to different areas. Ft. Stockton is slowing down ever so slowly. You can see the multiple rv parks now where spaces are open. Exxon up in Pecos is building a semi-permanent mancamp of about 400 units. Hard to guess reasoning as there really isn't a lot of areas left to frack. Tho I have noticed the drilling technics are getting smarter. Cluster drilling.   Long story short, I believe in 2 years this area will be back to mid-90's ghost towns. The re-fracking service will then start to boom, as too many wells aren't staying strong production wise. So re-fracking has shown promise to keep lower level wells stable for some time.