Oil prices forecast

(edited)

On 1/25/2019 at 2:21 AM, catch22 said:

He sees some goals by casting a fishing net the size of texas into the market only as big as the Mississippi... in other words, if you throw enough targets out there on the range - those targets are going to be hit every shot even if you use a musket to shoot at them... 

Have no idea why "top oil trader" thought there would be high volitility last session, but as you can see nothing materialized. Now i don't expect anyone making predictions to get it right all the time- all we can reasonably expect is that people give reasons why they beleive it to be so because it helps others to build an understanding of why things may have happened and to learn about the subject being discussed. Is that not the reasons for a forum???

So when JJ constantly says he knows why, but never tells us why in the same sentance, you have to ask what is the motivation for behaving like that? Ive concluded that a shill for some kind of information service about oil markets would do that here, hoping for a private message where he can groom the unsuspecting party further until he can be compenstated for whatever it is he is doing...

Ive seen it way too many times in places surrounding financial markets- tho they usually speak in a more knowledgable and professional manner...

 

Edited by A/Plague

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Probarbly the rate of oil price that may eventually come up this year may be up to 13 percent i really do think so ok..It is an event that always thread up and down,hence anything can happen!!!..

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On 1/25/2019 at 11:57 AM, A/Plague said:

guys, be a little kinder ... nothing and no one wants to get here ... he honestly writes that he is testing different systems for which he pays his money ... And he honestly writes that there is no result yet .. Yes, he writes big texts with praises in his address .. Well, let him write if it helps him to get rid of depression quite possible in such a situation .. What would you like more if he writes to himself that he is a loser? Let him write like that because others AT ALL do not write anything. Because they are not able even to this. It is established that in the world 80% of fools. Do you think that there are fewer of them? Even if he succeeds in fooling the Kago moron and getting money from him, well, fuck him. The moron will have less money and he will not buy himself new panties. Will walk in old :)
catch22 are you fishing with a net? :)

A/Plague,

You might want to re- read what you just wrote before telling others to be a little kinder. No ones being mean here we are just pointing out a few truths as a warning to others. I think you will find that is the definition of kind. 

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at this point its hard to figure out ahead of time where crude will be heading. I had expected a big selloff on Wednesday which didn't materialize, causing me to believe they may want to bring crude up. However, after doing some more research, it still looks like 55 was the top and were headed down.

Now since I don't swing trade but trade the moment as I see it, their intentions will become clearer as the hour's progress. so i do expect a nice retrace at least soon to come. Once the emperor's clothes are shown. However, from reading most articles traders, as well as major analysts, are predicting 60.

Fundamentally, prices are now well above parity, and may soon come back to earth, where oil actually does come from.

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aplague i soon wont be writing here anynmore, due to people like you, so dont worry about it.

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13 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

aplague i soon wont be writing here anynmore, due to people like you, so dont worry about it.

I would not let one person's uncalled for remarks keep you from continuing from contributing to the forums and discussions.  We're all here to share knowledge, learn from others, and discuss things.

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(edited)

On 1/31/2019 at 3:10 PM, cbrasher1 said:

I would not let one person's uncalled for remarks keep you from continuing from contributing to the forums and discussions.  We're all here to share knowledge, learn from others, and discuss things.

 

Edited by A/Plague

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10 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

at this point its hard to figure out ahead of time where crude will be heading. I had expected a big selloff on Wednesday which didn't materialize, causing me to believe they may want to bring crude up. However, after doing some more research, it still looks like 55 was the top and were headed down.

Now since I don't swing trade but trade the moment as I see it, their intentions will become clearer as the hour's progress. so i do expect a nice retrace at least soon to come. Once the emperor's clothes are shown. However, from reading most articles traders, as well as major analysts, are predicting 60.

Fundamentally, prices are now well above parity, and may soon come back to earth, where oil actually does come from.

I'm still bullish, but a bit nervous until we push through the resistance right above $55. On a side note, I am blown away by the amount of speculative interest on the bullish side entering the last 2 days after it just ran up $10+.

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On 1/20/2019 at 3:48 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Doesn't matter how much the Saudis have, the US will soon have a lot more than the Saudis. Saudi Arabia has 258 Billion barrels, of oil reserves and produces about 10 mbpd but can produce about 12 mbpd. In the US current oil reserves are 36 Billions of barrels but with about 200 Billion barrels undiscovered, and by 2020 some estimates are the US will produce 14 mbpd, far exceeding even the Saudi's capacity.

This is a lie. USA has 36 billion barrel proven reserve and 20 billion barrel probable reseve. So, 56GBL is the total USA oil. KSA does not have 250GBL but only 115GBL. Nevertheless, KSA has twice as much as USA. So, don't keep lying about USA oil production

On 1/17/2019 at 2:24 AM, Lorenzo said:

OIL Reserves in Saudi Arabia alone, as of January 2007, Saudi Aramco's proven reserves were estimated at 259.9 billion barrels (41.32×109 m3), comprising about 24% of the world total. They would last for 90 years at the current rate of production. 85% of Saudi oil fields found have not produced oil yet.

With demand slowing due to recessionary pressures....and supply being plentiful....it is hard to see crude price increasing other than OPEC manipulation to increase revenues.

Petroleum prices are always political. The oil reserves are not infinite to produce unlimited way. Why should KSA produce 10MBPD when it needs only 3MBPD? Why should is pump 7MBPD extra? What necessity doea it have to pump so much of a critical resource? KSA has 115GBL oil, not 250+ GBL. That figure has been since 1970s and has not been updated

On 1/15/2019 at 5:36 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

As far as I know, there is no trusted professional forecast of oil prices for 2019.  Just educated guesses.  Lots of conflicting educated guesses.

And professional guesses:

As far as Brexit impacting oil prices, nobody knows.  Will Brexit even happen?  Nobody knows.

I am the trusted forecaster of oil. Mark my words. Oil price is lower due to Indian pressure, especially Narendra Modi pressure. So, once elections are over in April 2019, price will start rising. Forecast is roughly $100 for 2019 end.

Petroleum price is always political and has always been. So, charts is not right to predict prices

On 1/18/2019 at 9:10 PM, Old-Ruffneck said:

The spread for W.Canadian and WTI in early December was over 30.00 dollars. So to answer your question, by all means it can. Louisiana Light was few days ago 10 dollar spread. Why all this insistence to compare different region oil makes no sense. Oil is not Oil (apples to apples.) Each oil from different regions is easier or harder to make say gasoline and light liquids. Some are good only for asphalt. So not all oils are the same.

Canadian oil is not real oil. It is tar sands and need dilutants from other countries to export. Without dilutants in the form of light crude oil, it is not possible to sell it. So, it is incorrect to compare WCS wiyh normal oil

On 1/19/2019 at 6:31 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Yes.  If you read my explanation later in that thread,  WTI keeps shooting itself in the foot by overproducing, while OPEC scales back production. 

$20+ spread between WTI and Brent is very much possible.  Ask Canada about oil price spreads...  WTI is willfully driving down its own price, by overproducing.

WTI is not over producing. USA is fartoo cunning to wimply overproduce their natural resources. It is simply needed due to political reason that USA achieves energy independence and hence this move. Even now USA is net oil importer and that says that WTI does not over produce

On 1/20/2019 at 12:06 AM, William Edwards said:

Try re-doing your own arithmetic with a more reasonable production rate of 10 mbod instead of 100 mbod. The new, more reasonable, arithmetic will agree with Lorenzo. I cannot comprehend a case where Saudi production supplies the entire world demand of 100 mood.

Please restore Lorenzo's A.

With any algorithm, one has to understand that oil price is political in nature as natural resources can't be equated with money. After all money is a measure of labour (quality & quantity) but no reasonable amount of labour can produce natural resource if there is no concentrated ore or deposit

On 1/20/2019 at 12:16 AM, JoMack said:

Disposal is a big problem in the Permian Basin since the Delaware and Bone Spring formations produce a very large amount of water.  If an Operator doesn't have a disposal well close to his wells, he'll transport and pay another operator to inject its water.  It does add quite a bit of cost to the well(s) it produces in these formations.

Water injection is a common method of getting oil. Water is simply pumped inyo nearby lakes or recycled into use. Problem of cost is not much as the process is powered by associated gas itself

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yes all the correct forecasts are guesses, very good.

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(edited)

On 1/31/2019 at 12:41 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

yes all the correct forecasts are guesses, very good.

  Oh !!! 😖

 

 

Edited by A/Plague

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6 hours ago, Bhimsen Pachawry said:

I am the trusted forecaster of oil. Mark my words. Oil price is lower due to Indian pressure, especially Narendra Modi pressure. So, once elections are over in April 2019, price will start rising. Forecast is roughly $100 for 2019 end.

Petroleum price is always political and has always been. So, charts is not right to predict prices 

unhappy ....

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16 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

aplague i soon wont be writing here anynmore, due to people like you, so dont worry about it.

Don't leave, I read your stuff.  I ignore noise such as them.  I've been trying to get long GUSH in my small IRA.  I did real good when I bought the recent bottom, I punched out in the base we're in now.  I've bought several breakouts from that base which have failed.  Do you think we could test the 40's or will 50 hold?  I'm trading the CL.   GUSH is very market sensitive regardless of the CL.  The pullback from 55 seems to keep happening.  How long do you think this range will last?  Guessing of course?  

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On 1/15/2019 at 9:51 AM, MahmoudSWD said:

Hello All

My name is Mahmoud, I am new here.. i am happy to join you all ☺️

I've been appointed to a new position (Sourcing) in my company ( El Sewedy Electric) .... since our industry consume huge amounts of oil based raw materials like Polyethylene, i need your help on 2 things:

1- I need to get a trusted professional forecast of oil prices in 2019.  

2- How Brexit would impact oil prices.

 

Thanks

Mahmoud that’s what some would an oxymoron (not someone stupid who works for Oxy) “a trusted professional to forecast” just read the words and it should answer your question. In reality the movement you want to forecast has no rhyme or reason it cannot be forecasted only guessed. Basically everyone runs around discussing what had just happened. It’s like a snipers .50 cal bullet only a few people know where it came from the next group informed may hear the bang the rest are on the receiving end going WTF was that.....

BREXIT adapt the text above.

👍🏻

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On 1/18/2019 at 9:36 AM, Old-Ruffneck said:

1 sq mile @ 1 inch rain roughly 17.4 million gallons. There is a lot of runoff rain here when it does rain. It wouldn't be hard to make catch reservoirs to help with water issues. You don't see it being done right now as not an issue.

Are similar techniques being used for agriculture? I think America has a lot of potential for more water projects out West. 

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2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Are similar techniques being used for agriculture? I think America has a lot of potential for more water projects out West. 

The answer is nope, ag is still pumping and flooding here. Many Pecan groves, cotton, mellons, onions and such in a 100 mile circle around 79735. The cotton is 1/5th what it used to be, as is a water inhaler and many wells went dry and went back to mesquite bushes. Lots of sections to the northeast of here 20 minute drive you see the old concrete watering system albeit broken up now. That started in the 70's and progressively has gotten worse. It's truly sad. Guess they thought the water table would last forever. The is basically high plains desert at 2980 feet. What I don't fully comprehend is Pecan groves, as they have to have a lot of water. Must be good bux in it??

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Trading crude is the hardest thing to trade. Just ask the 100 oil hedge funds that closed last year. As hard as it is to trade longer term, what hedge funds do, it will always be 10 times harder to trade interday, and I'm talking about people who are pros. Having said, should you be one of the few who can figure this out, you could be in big demand, since indeed crude investors are falling like flies, and it will only get more volatile as times goes by. I have looked far and high, for any meaningful service, that predicts prices that you can rely upon, and so far the search has come back empty. So in this game, you are on your own.  Just remember this before you invest your hard earned money in crude. 

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I'm truly enjoying this post so I hope we can keep it going, with civility of course. 

First, I'm a forex trader and have no idea behind the inner workings of the oil ecosystem. However, as a TRADER I feel obliged to defend charting as a means of RISK MANAGEMENT, no matter the instrument (notice how nothing was said of forecasting?).

Listen, trading is a probability game, and in the land of trading, PRICE is king. The fact is, there is no clearer way of reading price movement than using a chart. I see a ton of insightful analysis on topics ranging from geopolitics to oil extraction, but at the end of the day, whether you're a trader or not, it is ultimately reflected in price. This is not to discount fundamental analysis, only that ultimately any bit of information manifests itself on a chart of some kind, a filtration system if you would. 

My two cents is that oil will continue to climb. If I had to guess an average price for 2019, I would say $69 for WTI, and you can mark that down.

 

Cheers!

 

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On 1/15/2019 at 12:06 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

As far as I know, there is no trusted professional forecast of oil prices for 2019.  Just educated guesses.  Lots of conflicting educated guesses.

And professional guesses:

As far as Brexit impacting oil prices, nobody knows.  Will Brexit even happen?  Nobody knows.

Brexit will happen the UK wants out the vote has been cast so for us in the UK that is not the question .

the only question for us is what deal we can come out of the EU with.

Has for oil forecast i have  agree with Tom there is only educated guesses  and yes there is a lot of them out there .

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On 2/3/2019 at 2:24 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Trading crude is the hardest thing to trade. Just ask the 100 oil hedge funds that closed last year. As hard as it is to trade longer term, what hedge funds do, it will always be 10 times harder to trade interday, and I'm talking about people who are pros. Having said, should you be one of the few who can figure this out, you could be in big demand, since indeed crude investors are falling like flies, and it will only get more volatile as times goes by. I have looked far and high, for any meaningful service, that predicts prices that you can rely upon, and so far the search has come back empty. So in this game, you are on your own.  Just remember this before you invest your hard earned money in crude. 

But youve said a hundred times on this forum that its soooooo easy??? You claimed your making thousands of dollars a week not more than a couple weeks ago? Changed your tune again JJ?

Trading ANY commodity is not easy. Very few succeed in this game. You have to be dedicated, research, read, practice, believe, be fearless, emotionless, and above all else - extremely intelligent. You need to consider risks first and profits second. And you need to understand how to manage your money properly trading mathematical probabilities rather than gambling for hay makers. Are you listening JJ?

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The oil prices are at an all time high. Due to the oil prices hiking up everyday, the fuel prices become costlier, too. I work in a trucking business and I can see how the rise in the price is hitting every business out there involved with oil. I recently read up about the oil prices being high in the US. It is really getting tough, keeping a handle on the market. Some researcher had done a thorough fuel oil price forecast and has predicted that the fuel oil market will decline at a CAGR of 4.08 percent by 2020. Many factors play into this research, not just the price but government regulation, environment alerts, etc. I am still trying to plan the long term effects to my business as well as the others. I guess it will be better to plan it out so that I don’t go broke when the oil prices hit us with the highest market price.

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