Oil prices forecast

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,239]

3 minutes ago, JoMack said:

If prices continue to stay in the $50 range, vendors will start to drop prices and companies will take advantage of it.  I see more drilling in the Permian at lower prices if vendors start to get with the program, which they usually always did in the past.

It's a different "game" now down here 50.00 or sub. I see banks calling in loans instead of throwing more cash to Big Oil. After all, drilling rigs are hired to drill a well for Oil Companies. There is still 850+ rigs actively drilling oil wells. All on borrow money, but I am thinking the time has come to repay. End of week rig count will tell us a lot. It's in my opinion that there is going to be a slow, slowdown. Nothing too radical 'cause at 52.00 they are still above breakeven. Not by much but little profit is better than none. 

[JoMack + 549]

You should also note Old-Ruffneck that there are at lease 100 oil and gas companies in the Permian Basin alone.

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,239]

17 minutes ago, JoMack said:

You should also note Old-Ruffneck that there are at lease 100 oil and gas companies in the Permian Basin alone.

Well, yes there is a lot of oil and gas companies, but I bet if you researched hard enough you might find they are cousins enen 2nd cousins to the big 5. The Big Oil companies will start up a with a retired ceo or upper management a new offshoot and keep the money in house. A lot of corporations do this very thing.   

Interesting reading tho 6 months old

https://www.forbes.com/sites/clairepoole/2018/07/29/5-permian-basin-oil-producers-with-the-lowest-break-even-price/#70252aa35325

[Joseph Scarafone + 20]

On 1/18/2019 at 3:24 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

all kinds of people will give you forecasts here from 20 - 100, flip a coin, pick one. But if we are focusing on just today, today's price will hit $55.13.

You need to focus on 3 months out not where it will trade all year, that's impossible to know, but 3 months out, is easy if you know how to use charts. Oversupply will be a major factor, could drop the price, slowing econ could drop the price, China deal raise demand, OPEC  cuts raise the price,

only someone with an exceptional view of charts, which you wont find out there, will be able to tell you where prices are headed near term, which will cut right through whatever news surprises appear in that timeframe.

Last year people here and analysts everywhere were 100% sure we would hit 80 - 100, and what happened, no one had a clue, even when it hit 50, only then did people wake up and sense something wasn't right. By then the industry had already lost trillions.

My question is, what about all the UCD or whatever they call them, the wells that are being drilled now uncompleted but will come on line?  And then with all the wells going off line recently, how will that affect prices?  Is it merely based on economic demand, is that the bigger driver of prices or is controlling the flow a bigger fact, in the 3 month window?  Or, is it just technical chart analysis? 

 

Thanks in advance.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So whenever OPEC is aggressively cutting, forget the rest of the news, oil prices will go up, as long as they are cutting. Since they have been cutting since prices hit low 40s, indeed prices been on a roll. If Trump again applies pressure on OPEC to not interfere, we will then see a selloff again. Now today, prices will be lower than yesterdays lows, again I don't want to show off, and give the target it to the penny, but i do have an exact target to the penny for today. 

But yesterday I said the low would be 52, and indeed it came in at 52.04. So the only reason the prices are going up is that of OPEC. If OPEC would not have aggressively cut, we would have been at $30 by now.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Top Oil Trader

[Delton Witte + 12]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

"Now today, prices will be lower than yesterdays lows"

Good luck with that one.

"again I don't want to show off, and give the target it to the penny, but i do have an exact target to the penny for today."

You have very little idea what oil is going to do.

"But yesterday I said the low would be 52, and indeed it came in at 52.04."

Actually, you said it would go below $52. Now you say that'll happen today.

"So the only reason the prices are going up is that of OPEC. If OPEC would not have aggressively cut, we would have been at $30 by now."

Here's the deal OPEC did make cuts and we are nowhere near $30. Let's stop pretending that we are headed there and stop pretending that you are giving us some type of inside knowledge. I anticipate we'll finish the week around $55 and we'll see $65 long before $30.

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Delton Witte

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Delton you are right. By the way we just hit lower that yesterdays low. 51.92 was the low today, and this will be the low for today. Now i can tell you where it will hit tomorrow. But at this point due to lack of interest, this will be my last call on this site. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Top Oil Trader

[Delton Witte + 12]

22 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Delton you are right. By the way we just hit lower that yesterdays low. 51.92 was the low today, and this will be the low for today. Now i can tell you where it will hit tomorrow. But at this point due to lack of interest, this will be my last call on this site. 

Congrats on hitting your target. I'm interested in hearing your opinion when posed as an opinion. It's about perception and presentation. You tend to be declarative about your positions, which isn't a bad thing in itself, but at times it makes it seem as though opposing opinions are invalid. Perhaps today, we'll both be right. I think the API report will show a draw, which will lead to things moving back up in the later part of the day. You also, have a tendency to attempt to validate your prior statements. We all saw that you were close yesterday, your telling us about it doesn't make you any more right. I apologize if I was abrasive, I think there is room enough for varying opinions, but I also feel that it is important to present them as opinions. I know we are all adults, but there may be someone who thinks you really KNOW what is going to happen. When you are right great, but if you aren't then they are sitting there saying "but, he said it would do...". Again, my apologies.  

[A/Plague + 50]

On 1/22/2019 at 7:58 PM, A/Plague said:

51.84

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by A/Plague

[A/Plague + 50]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Delton you are right. By the way we just hit lower that yesterdays low. 51.92 was the low today, and this will be the low for today. Now i can tell you where it will hit tomorrow. But at this point due to lack of interest, this will be my last call on this site.  

bu-ga-ga-ga....

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,239]

8 hours ago, Joseph Scarafone said:

My question is, what about all the UCD or whatever they call them, the wells that are being drilled now uncompleted but will come on line?  And then with all the wells going off line recently, how will that affect prices?  Is it merely based on economic demand, is that the bigger driver of prices or is controlling the flow a bigger fact, in the 3 month window?  Or, is it just technical chart analysis? 

 

Thanks in advance.  

Well, your asking a lot of questions of which the answers are in here if you care to read. Drilled Uncompleted Wells is +7000 wells in the Permian, which is a large area. What wells are going offline? Prices are up and down on the whim of traders, banks, and to a degree the "magic crystal ball". When pipeline takeaway rises the DUC's will be completed. The price of completing a well is over 50% of total cost of the well itself so is not a easy thing to get more revenue to finish the well. 

Unlike most oil producing countries, USA is fairly transparent in it's weekly, quarterly earnings. Almost all producing nations are closed societies and therefore they let out what they feel is necessary. So what they say isn't always what is in truth and therein lies the rub. How many in OPEC+ cheat on a daily basis to grab some extra money? Does Russian production drop when OPEC+ asks? Probably not. Soon Venezuela will be ramping up. Mexico also. So do technical charts analysis help in any way? Can anyone really with charts tell us within a 1000 barrels a week number? Nope. API and EIA both seems to be in recent months way out of kilter. Someone smarter than me can probably answer that age of issue of lopsided numbers. Hint Hint Tom Kirkman 

[William Edwards + 708]

34 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Well, your asking a lot of questions of which the answers are in here if you care to read. Drilled Uncompleted Wells is +7000 wells in the Permian, which is a large area. What wells are going offline? Prices are up and down on the whim of traders, banks, and to a degree the "magic crystal ball". When pipeline takeaway rises the DUC's will be completed. The price of completing a well is over 50% of total cost of the well itself so is not a easy thing to get more revenue to finish the well. 

Unlike most oil producing countries, USA is fairly transparent in it's weekly, quarterly earnings. Almost all producing nations are closed societies and therefore they let out what they feel is necessary. So what they say isn't always what is in truth and therein lies the rub. How many in OPEC+ cheat on a daily basis to grab some extra money? Does Russian production drop when OPEC+ asks? Probably not. Soon Venezuela will be ramping up. Mexico also. So do technical charts analysis help in any way? Can anyone really with charts tell us within a 1000 barrels a week number? Nope. API and EIA both seems to be in recent months way out of kilter. Someone smarter than me can probably answer that age of issue of lopsided numbers. Hint Hint Tom Kirkman 

I am not in Tom Kirkman's league, but please let me put in my own hint. There is no way that anyone or any computer can know how todays's oil production compares, quantitatively, with today's consumption. It can never happen! This raises the question, then, as to how the trading community can know the appropriate price to buy or sell if that price is set by the over- or undersupply for that moment - a perpetual unknown. One possible answer is that, in spite of the universal acceptance of the notion that over or under supply sets the price, that is, in fact, not the case. Other factors actually determine the price of the moment.

Since fundamental reality acts too slowly to provide an instantaneous price, traders have to rely on something else to guide their buying and selling decisions. One convenient and popular item is "charts". Therefore charting availability serves as a guide for a large proportion of traders. The charting prophecy then becomes the self-fulfilling result. It has nothing to do with momentary oil supply/demand fundamentals, just the universal acceptance of the chart's validity.

Let me take this opportunity to pose a theoretical question: If you are informed that the Saudis exports are reduced, is the reason 1) they restrained supplies and sent tankers away empty or 2) there were no tankers at the port for them to load. The expected impact on price is diametrically different depending on which rationale you adopt. So it is important for you to know the rationale behind the oil movement numbers to determine whether "cheating" or "compliance" is a good sign or a bad sign for prices.

Let me give an example of what I am talking about. Suppose world demand is 100. And suppose that the US supplies 10 and the OPEC world supplies the remainder, or 90. Further assume the the OPEC quota is set at the required 90. Everything is nicely balanced and the quota is at 100% compliance. Now let us increase the US supply to 12. Since it is impossible to put 102 of supply in the 100-sized bucket, OPEC must reduce their supply to 88 since there is no place to put the hoped-for 90. Compliance will be wonderful, but OPEC was forced to comply by the law of conservation of matter, and not willfully. Is that good for OPEC or bad?

So when you read reports of OPEC's first quarter compliance, which should be great since first quarter demand always drops and the US will probably increase output, you might ask "Was compliance forced upon them, or did they concede market willingly?" The answer will determine the direction of prices.

Edited January 23, 2019 by William Edwards

[Joseph Scarafone + 20]

Great information guys, thanks, I really appreciate you taking the time.  

 

I think they complied because Trump bribed them with weapons, before somebody else did, just a guess.  

[Bobby P + 88]

On 1/15/2019 at 3:51 AM, MahmoudSWD said:

Hello All

My name is Mahmoud, I am new here.. i am happy to join you all ☺️

I've been appointed to a new position (Sourcing) in my company ( El Sewedy Electric) .... since our industry consume huge amounts of oil based raw materials like Polyethylene, i need your help on 2 things:

1- I need to get a trusted professional forecast of oil prices in 2019.  

2- How Brexit would impact oil prices.

 

Thanks

Will fluctuate anywhere between ~$55 to $70 USD

[Delton Witte + 12]

4 hours ago, Delton Witte said:

I think the API report will show a draw, which will lead to things moving back up in the later part of the day.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/api-data-reportedly-show-a-more-than-6-million-barrel-weekly-rise-in-us-crude-supplies-2019-01-23

Swing and a miss. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so now that I was able to accurately predict the lows twice in a row. I realized i got something. So for tomorrow not only have I predicted the lows, but all the levels that will be hit, and roughly about at what times. One thing I can say tomorrows action will be historic and vicious. The low and hod will be very shocking to the traders tomorrow. The prices that crude will hit, will only have minor effects on producers. They will survive. And since i have sensed that most here don't really care what i post lately i have decided to omit the details.

If you are trading tomorrow, be careful, my advice to you is don't trade, this will make sense to you at eod when you'll be able to see how volatile it will be.

[JoMack + 549]

On 1/22/2019 at 2:42 PM, Old-Ruffneck said:

Well, yes there is a lot of oil and gas companies, but I bet if you researched hard enough you might find they are cousins enen 2nd cousins to the big 5. The Big Oil companies will start up a with a retired ceo or upper management a new offshoot and keep the money in house. A lot of corporations do this very thing.   

Interesting reading tho 6 months old

https://www.forbes.com/sites/clairepoole/2018/07/29/5-permian-basin-oil-producers-with-the-lowest-break-even-price/#70252aa35325

Strata Production, Chesapeake, Armstrong Energy, Matador, , Mewbourne Oil, Noble, Read & Stevens, Cimarex, Colgate and ...  I could name a lot more that have  no connection to the majors.  Small independents that have wells in the Permian.  

[William Edwards + 708]

3 hours ago, Bobby P said:

Will fluctuate anywhere between ~$55 to $70 USD

Make that $25 to $75.

[William Edwards + 708]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so now that I was able to accurately predict the lows twice in a row. I realized i got something. So for tomorrow not only have I predicted the lows, but all the levels that will be hit, and roughly about at what times. One thing I can say tomorrows action will be historic and vicious. The low and hod will be very shocking to the traders tomorrow. The prices that crude will hit, will only have minor effects on producers. They will survive. And since i have sensed that most here don't really care what i post lately i have decided to omit the details.

If you are trading tomorrow, be careful, my advice to you is don't trade, this will make sense to you at eod when you'll be able to see how volatile it will be.

Interesting forecast, JJ. We shall be watching.

[catch22 + 244]

Does anybody else here think that JJ could be a shill? He wants people to contact him privately about his oil price predictions so that he can extract money or some other form of compensation in some way, shape, or form. He has avoided all of my questions about this, and simply moves to another thread looking for new feeding grounds... why else make baseless claims and predictions and not give the reasons he believes it to be so? - The reason - that is the information he must be compensated for...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Shill in what way?  I don't need any money.  My accts are large enough that i can trade the max amounts of contracts any trader could imagine trading at one time. For example say i traded 20 contracts at one time, a 20 cents move against me would be 4k draw or loss. So obviously i try never to trade that large. Having said that, i have traded more than 40 contracts at one time, quite a few times, and maybe that is what makes me so sensitive to moves. What im trying to explain is this, crude is very volatile as you know it moves violently many days of the week, though some days only in $1 range.  However, to 99% of traders indeed, intraday moves are at best random, and at best what that could hope to do, is try and follow. of course in crude this isnt possible due to the speed of the moves, unless it really moves slow, then sometimes you can jump on. At this point analyzing crude daily the day before has been very rewarding and surprising, to say the least.

[A/Plague + 50]

On 1/24/2019 at 3:55 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

so now that I was able to accurately predict the lows twice in a row. I realized i got something. So for tomorrow not only have I predicted the lows, but all the levels that will be hit, and roughly about at what times. One thing I can say tomorrows action will be historic and vicious. The low and hod will be very shocking to the traders tomorrow. The prices that crude will hit, will only have minor effects on producers. They will survive. And since i have sensed that most here don't really care what i post lately i have decided to omit the details.

If you are trading tomorrow, be careful, my advice to you is don't trade, this will make sense to you at eod when you'll be able to see how volatile it will be. 

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by A/Plague

[A/Plague + 50]

On 1/24/2019 at 6:35 AM, catch22 said:

Does anybody else here think that JJ could be a shill? He wants people to contact him privately about his oil price predictions so that he can extract money or some other form of compensation in some way, shape, or form. He has avoided all of my questions about this, and simply moves to another thread looking for new feeding grounds... why else make baseless claims and predictions and not give the reasons he believes it to be so? - The reason - that is the information he must be compensated for... 

 

Edited February 9, 2019 by A/Plague

[catch22 + 244]

16 hours ago, A/Plague said:

I have to admit that he sees some goals ... let's see when the price comes to the catastrophe they expect for traders

He sees some goals by casting a fishing net the size of texas into the market only as big as the Mississippi... in other words, if you throw enough targets out there on the range - those targets are going to be hit every shot even if you use a musket to shoot at them... 

Have no idea why "top oil trader" thought there would be high volitility last session, but as you can see nothing materialized. Now i don't expect anyone making predictions to get it right all the time- all we can reasonably expect is that people give reasons why they beleive it to be so because it helps others to build an understanding of why things may have happened and to learn about the subject being discussed. Is that not the reasons for a forum???

So when JJ constantly says he knows why, but never tells us why in the same sentance, you have to ask what is the motivation for behaving like that? Ive concluded that a shill for some kind of information service about oil markets would do that here, hoping for a private message where he can groom the unsuspecting party further until he can be compenstated for whatever it is he is doing...

Ive seen it way too many times in places surrounding financial markets- tho they usually speak in a more knowledgable and professional manner...

[Auson + 123]

10 hours ago, catch22 said:

He sees some goals by casting a fishing net the size of texas into the market only as big as the Mississippi... in other words, if you throw enough targets out there on the range - those targets are going to be hit every shot even if you use a musket to shoot at them... 

Have no idea why "top oil trader" thought there would be high volitility last session, but as you can see nothing materialized. Now i don't expect anyone making predictions to get it right all the time- all we can reasonably expect is that people give reasons why they beleive it to be so because it helps others to build an understanding of why things may have happened and to learn about the subject being discussed. Is that not the reasons for a forum???

So when JJ constantly says he knows why, but never tells us why in the same sentance, you have to ask what is the motivation for behaving like that? Ive concluded that a shill for some kind of information service about oil markets would do that here, hoping for a private message where he can groom the unsuspecting party further until he can be compenstated for whatever it is he is doing...

Ive seen it way too many times in places surrounding financial markets- tho they usually speak in a more knowledgable and professional manner...

catch22,

The part that worried me the most was the talk of a 'system' that he has for Forrex which he was now using on trading oil and it being 'so easy' to trade oil. He also called $35 oil as a target back in December when it was obvious that oil was oversold and the below $45 WTI we saw for 3 whole days was too low !

Be careful everyone !