EVs and Oil Demand

30 minutes ago, David Jones said:

Looking at some of the available information from a quick google search, in London average distance travelled for busses is about 57000km every year. I think something like the Citaro from Mercedes is at 38.7l/100km so 0.387l per km and with 57000km that's 22059l per bus so 100k BEV buses would be something like ((100k*22k)/159l)/365 = 37,900b/d. Yeah, that's as much as the entire current BEV fleet combined assuming it's 3,000,000 although according to this Bloomberg article the b/d value is even higher:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-buses-are-hurting-the-oil-industry

Still buses don't sell as much as cars so in the 2nd half of the 20s their contribution to oil demand growth reduction could be less than pBEVs if the latter push past 50 million annual sales say around 2028/2029 (assuming 50% growth holds until then that is what will happen). That would be an additional 600,000 b/d removed each year from 50 million passenger BEVs and a total of about 200 million pBEVs on the road at that point which is worth 200M*(4.4/365)=about 2,411,000b/d off the market. So if we include the additional demand growth reduction from BEV buses, there's quite a decent chance that substantial negative oil demand growth will be witnessed in the second half of the 20s.

This link gives a good picture of the status of demand destruction a year ago.

"For every 1,000 battery-powered buses on the road, about 500 barrels a day of diesel fuel will be displaced from the market, according to BNEF calculations. "

I suspect your calculations will be overtaken by reality.

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On 1/29/2019 at 3:33 PM, entertenter said:

 

GC to Entertenter

The jury on this problem is not out and probably will never be out for a long-time due commercial interests interfering. Have you checked the medical history of those humans who were long exposed to massive electro-magnetic fields? The WIFI radiation can be avoided if one keeps a certain distance. Much worse is our normal cell phones if you keep the phone touching your ears, esp. in case of young growing children, that high GHz waves can change the glutamic acid content in their brains that can lead to mental degeneracy. Again, many decades ago I read a news report that people living near high-voltage electric transmission cables are prone to develop cancer, something that is now said to be true of people in regular close proximity to microwave owens in operation in kitchen. One can’t dismiss these of as mere controversy. The best test would be to make a thorough medical survey of the inhabitants of a big busy town where only EV’s are used and watch the changes in people over an extended period of 5 years. The results when compared to people living in predominantly gasoline run city will show how far the electro-smog had affected people or not. Without such fundamental medically established studies, any categorical opinion on this issue seems to me meaningless.

G. Chakko, Vienna (Austria), 04/02/ 2019    11:09 am CET

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Regarding electromagnetic fields and human health, you may want to take a look at:

Reported symptoms include headaches, anxiety, suicide and depression, nausea, fatigue and loss of libido. To date, scientific evidence does not support a link between these symptoms and exposure to electromagnetic fields.
 
 

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6 hours ago, gchakko said:

GC to Entertenter

The jury on this problem is not out and probably will never be out for a long-time due commercial interests interfering. Have you checked the medical history of those humans who were long exposed to massive electro-magnetic fields? The WIFI radiation can be avoided if one keeps a certain distance. Much worse is our normal cell phones if you keep the phone touching your ears, esp. in case of young growing children, that high GHz waves can change the glutamic acid content in their brains that can lead to mental degeneracy. Again, many decades ago I read a news report that people living near high-voltage electric transmission cables are prone to develop cancer, something that is now said to be true of people in regular close proximity to microwave owens in operation in kitchen. One can’t dismiss these of as mere controversy. The best test would be to make a thorough medical survey of the inhabitants of a big busy town where only EV’s are used and watch the changes in people over an extended period of 5 years. The results when compared to people living in predominantly gasoline run city will show how far the electro-smog had affected people or not. Without such fundamental medically established studies, any categorical opinion on this issue seems to me meaningless.

 

G. Chakko, Vienna (Austria), 04/02/ 2019    11:09 am CET

 

There have been many epidemiological studies with various study designs (Cohort, Longitudinal, Case - control, etc) and all have shown any cancer risk associated with chronic exposure to EMF  to be statistically insignificant. There is a very real risk of thermal burns with hf EMF but that risk is quite different from Cancer.

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I've read (though don't have the expertise to verify) that fracking produces oil that's not ideal for diesel production.  Our country (and military?) don't run on unleaded.  Right?  Wrong?  I tend to agree with those that think the average person will be driving electric even in 10 years.  It's simply a simpler solution.

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(edited)

On 1/29/2019 at 3:33 PM, entertenter said:

GC - Reply to Max Nix (MR), Entertenter and Nick W (NW)

The report you referred to created by the WHO also says:

a)   “…scientists are actively continuing to research this area.”

 

b) “Changes that are irreversible and stress the system (meaning human body) for long periods of time may constitute a health hazard.”

 

c) The International EMF project WHO launched concluded acknowledging “…some gaps in knowledge about biological effects exist and need further research”. Why, if there aren’t any problem, I and many ask?

 

d) At another place it says, “Special research is needed to identify and measure health hazards.” , and “short-term exposure to very high levels of electromagnetic fields can be harmful to health.”

 

The only general conclusion many agree is that low level exposure has the same effect as from other daily life sources we face. But people living near railway lines “may encounter magnetic fields from the overhead supply which, depending on the country, may be comparable to the fields produced by high-voltage power lines.”

 

At a conference of IRPA (International Radiation Protection Agency) around1998 I think, I confronted one medico participant, Prof. Goldman from CA., on the microwave RF at GHz levels affecting the brain. He denied any harm (Obviously, he was a consultant to Motorola then!). But when I asked a lady scientist on the same matter, she said Goldman was wrong and pointed to several scientific publications recording detrimental effects changing the glutamic acid content in the brain. Today in medical science many things are controversial what was once considered to be standard truths. That is the nature of Science per se. Thus, studies continue and jury is still not out.

 

WHO is a specialised agency under U.N. system that flagged the International Electro-Magnetic Field Project. Agencies under U.N. system take decisions under consensus principle normally and dissenting voices are recorded in the protocol, But this kind of “reports by specialists” do not; so we do not know whether the report was a unanimous decision of all experts. It is an open secret too that at times political and economic considerations, esp. from the U.S. side, seep through, marring the objectivity of the issue under consideration, as I have witnessed in IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) meetings as U.N. correspondent in Vienna.

 

So far no studies have been made on the mass transportation life of BEV’s in a human habitat, including those who constantly travel in them, because such an era has not arrived yet. Only future studies can tell.

 

George Chakko, Vienna (Austria), 07/02/2019   

 

Edited by gchakko
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