OPEC Will Likely Balance The Oil Market By Next Month

8 hours ago, Wastral said:

 But yes, any headline you read is almost 100% a lie, a massive lie, or an outright massive lie. 

I take extreme offense to that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Anuj Gupta said:

The developing world is fast shifting its reliance on crude derivative based commercial vehicle engines to electric motor driven vehicles & this transformation has already started to show up on streets. 

Nothing can now stop a Fossil Fuel bear market. I see Brent below $30 in months to follow as inventory pileups will flush the gulf with crude!

For the sake of argument lets say EV’s started killing demand. If a glut happened wouldnt producers just drill less? In the end the amount of oil in storage tanks sets the basic floor price reguardles of demand or productIon. In the end the lowest cost producers get market share.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Rodent said:

I take extreme offense to that

😆SHOCK😆 Say it isn't so!  What will we all do? 

Your presidential bid may not make it...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Rodent said:

I take extreme offense to that

Hi @Rodent.  I thought his comment was aimed at the headlines, not at you.  Did I miss something?  If so, my apologies.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, Anuj Gupta said:

The developing world is fast shifting its reliance on crude derivative based commercial vehicle engines to electric motor driven vehicles & this transformation has already started to show up on streets. 

Nothing can now stop a Fossil Fuel bear market. I see Brent below $30 in months to follow as inventory pileups will flush the gulf with crude!

I disagree...

I do NOT believe that the world is "FAST SHIFTING" to EV's...

There are some countries that are shifting,  but even that is not to any great extent.........

In order for a "FAST" shift,  or even a "SLOW" one,   the price of EV's need to be less than half of what they are now,  and i do not see that happening....

 

I also do not see any possibility of Brent below $30 for the foreseeable future....

But you have my curiosity....

Please explain more about what you believe could cause Brent to drop so low........

 

Don't get me wrong........  I would love for gasoline prices to be back down to the $1.60 per gallon that it was prior to 9/11........

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

“Lies, damned lies and statistics”-Mark Twain.

No offense intended to anyone

Rodent 2020

  • Great Response! 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

On 3/9/2019 at 7:48 AM, Wastral said:

Uh, we are a net importer because we have the largest refinery complex on earth and export a gigantic chunk of it.  If oil was cut off tomorrow, everyone in the USA would not know the difference. WTI would not change in price.  A few refineries would be having large problems as their oil got cut off.  Even that would be temporary until the NG got ramped up offloading even more of the plastics etc from oil feed stock which is already happening in a massive way. 

But yes, any headline you read is almost 100% a lie, a massive lie, or an outright massive lie. 

Ow really? How much does America consume and how much does America produce? You know it's a net importer and so does any one with any knowledge of oil.

Edited by Adam Jackson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Adam Jackson said:

Ow really? How much does America consume and how much does America produce? You know it's a net importer and so does any one with any knowledge of oil.

Look at the charts and you tell me. Yer such a smart guy I am quite sure you you can understand the numbers given.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Worldwide end of February EIA statement with chart for those who wanna know the facts:

Despite recent supply reductions, global liquid fuels production to outpace demand

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38512

And at end of this week, with the world economy dipping slightly, if refinery runs don't adjust we will be swimming in gas and diesel....So when OPEC cut alittle last week they knew or know consumptions is dropping and most likely not wanting the bottom to fall out of pricing. 

Edited by Old-Ruffneck
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Look at the charts and you tell me. Yer such a smart guy I am quite sure you you can understand the numbers given.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

America consumes around 20 million barrels a day and produces 12 million although I don't believe they produce 12 million but lower.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Adam Jackson said:

America consumes around 20 million barrels a day and produces 12 million although I don't believe they produce 12 million but lower.

USA doesn't consume 20mbd. Are you not understanding that we import crude and run it through refinery and ship it back out as a finished product? You obviously aren't educated in Input/output processes. Please get some education and come back here.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

4 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

USA doesn't consume 20mbd. Are you not understanding that we import crude and run it through refinery and ship it back out as a finished product? You obviously aren't educated in Input/output processes. Please get some education and come back here.

7.28 billion barrels of oil USA consumes, consumes as in uses. that works out at around 20 million barrels a day.  https://www.google.com/search?q=usa+oil+consumption+per+day&oq=usa+oil+consumption+per+day&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l3.8448j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Edited by Adam Jackson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Adam Jackson said:

7.28 billion barrels of oil USA consumes, consumes as in uses. that works out at around 20 million barrels a day.  https://www.google.com/search?q=usa+oil+consumption+per+day&oq=usa+oil+consumption+per+day&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l3.8448j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Well, I got numbers from EIA not google, so maybe 12mbd is not correct, but I have a feeling its higher now. 12mbd + 8.9mbd import equals 20.9mbd but exports 8.272mbd. My math isn't good but maybe we really are using 20mbd? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Well, I got numbers from EIA not google, so maybe 12mbd is not correct, but I have a feeling its higher now. 12mbd + 8.9mbd import equals 20.9mbd but exports 8.272mbd. My math isn't good but maybe we really are using 20mbd? 

That is from EIA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Adam Jackson said:

That is from EIA.

okay, thanks for the info

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Hi @Rodent.  I thought his comment was aimed at the headlines, not at you.  Did I miss something?  If so, my apologies.

unless you're the one writing those headlines.....  :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Rodent said:

unless you're the one writing those headlines.....  :)

Aha......I see.  Ahem.  Make Oil Great Again!

Rodent 2020

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

The days where OPEC can control the price of oil will be coming to an end by sometime 2020. 

When their deniles end and members start thinking ,"maybe electric vehicles are ramping up faster than expected"  all will be pumping like there is no tomorrow.  

Morgan Stanley analyst just put out a report that stated China's oil demand will peak In 2025.  

A wall street opinion page article said in so many words buying a combustion engine car is old tech and a waste of money.  EV's skyrocket when next gen, low cost solid-state car batteries are mass produced around 2024.

Oil will trade for another 12 to 18 months on rig counts, OPEC announcements, inventory reports, GDP projections and even Presidential Tweets but soon it will trade on the marginal cost to produce which means much lower $.

Edited by JJCar
Typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 3/9/2019 at 3:58 AM, Anuj Gupta said:

The developing world is fast shifting its reliance on crude derivative based commercial vehicle engines to electric motor driven vehicles & this transformation has already started to show up on streets. 

Nothing can now stop a Fossil Fuel bear market. I see Brent below $30 in months to follow as inventory pileups will flush the gulf with crude!

Dream on, you must be in with the GREED (LOL) GREEN NEW DEAL, camels and pigs will be flying and human flatulence will heat and energize the world

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, JJCar said:

The days where OPEC can control the price of oil will be coming to an end by sometime 2020. 

When their deniles end and members start thinking ,"maybe electric vehicles are ramping up faster than expected"  all will be pumping like there is no tomorrow.  

Morgan Stanley analyst just put out a report that stated China's oil demand will peak In 2025.  

A wall street opinion page article said in so many words buying a combustion engine car is old tech and a waste of money.  EV's skyrocket when next gen, low cost solid-state car batteries are mass produced around 2024.

Oil will trade for another 12 to 18 months on rig counts, OPEC announcements, inventory reports, GDP projections and even Presidential Tweets but soon it will trade on the marginal cost to produce which means much lower $.

Can you please identify which companies will be producing said batteries, I would like to diversify my investments.  If your prognostication is correct, now is the time to buy interest in the battery manufacturers who will lead the way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Google "electric vehicle battery technology" .  You will find a half dozen but all financed by Venture Capital.  Many large auto co's developing there own.  Tough to call a winner new technology and mfg process changing.  Mfgers will be leapfrogging each other for a while.  Today's leader could be tomorrow's loser.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, JJCar said:

Google "electric vehicle battery technology" .  You will find a half dozen but all financed by Venture Capital.  Many large auto co's developing there own.  Tough to call a winner new technology and mfg process changing.  Mfgers will be leapfrogging each other for a while.  Today's leader could be tomorrow's loser.

Battery tech may improve but still need millions of charging stations. My wife works 20 miles away, one way. If she forgets to plug in somewhere, I see wreckers with big battery instant charge a new craze hehehe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

13 hours ago, Adam Jackson said:

Ow really? How much does America consume and how much does America produce? You know it's a net importer and so does any one with any knowledge of oil.

Adam: Why not read what I wrote?  Refiners will be hurting no one else in USA will be hurting if oil imports stop tomorrow.  USA exports over 8Mbd a day.  +20-8 = what again?  Oh yea... +12.  Produce 12.  If you are not blinded by ideology, you would admit USA production is MUCH more than that as everyone in the industry who actually touches the downstream refineries counts NGL's as well to the total.  NGL's are direct feed stock.  SO, actual USA production when you include NGL's is around 14Mbd, or net exporter by 1.5Mbd. 

EDIT: PS: Our plastics, fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides are now moving entirely to feedstock from NG.  This will DROP our oil requirements and increase our exports. 

Edited by Wastral
Forgot key element
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Wastral said:

Adam: Why not read what I wrote?  Refiners will be hurting no one else in USA will be hurting if oil imports stop tomorrow.  USA exports over 8Mbd a day.  +20-8 = what again?  Oh yea... +12.  Produce 12.  If you are not blinded by ideology, you would admit USA production is MUCH more than that as everyone in the industry who actually touches the downstream refineries counts NGL's as well to the total.  NGL's are direct feed stock.  SO, actual USA production when you include NGL's is around 14Mbd, or net exporter by 1.5Mbd. 

EDIT: PS: Our plastics, fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides are now moving entirely to feedstock from NG.  This will DROP our oil requirements and increase our exports. 

Don't waste your time, looking like Adam and Auson are the same trolls. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, TXPower said:

Can you please identify which companies will be producing said batteries, I would like to diversify my investments.  If your prognostication is correct, now is the time to buy interest in the battery manufacturers who will lead the way.

Research flow batteries. I don't see a way lithium will scale up for grid based systems, and still achieve the cost structure require. Lithium will do well in applications with size constraints.

Flow batteries have an odd advantage/disadvantage. The chemistry is inexpensive. Good long run, inhibits going to market short run, not protecting the innovator as much, rewarding the fast follower to use technology commercialization speak. NASA invented the basic concept in the 60s. There are patents and such to somewhat protect. 

Personally I'd think EVs are best for urban environments where the range isn't a fundamental issue. And darn is electric scooters aren't taking over downtown urban areas. Not the advance I was looking for.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites