Is Cuba's oil supply under threat?

[AdrianC + 42]

For years, Cuba has received large quantities oil from Venezuela. But with the government in Caracas in turmoil and President Nicolas Maduro under increasing pressure, is the country at risk of losing its energy supply?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

It already is.  Just now, the electricity flowing from some hydro dam that runs both the urban population and feeds power to the oil enterprise has been interrupted for six days straight, and oil production is down to zero.  OK, so there is some oil sitting in storage tanks.  Once that is gone, there is no oil for anyone - including Cuba. 

Notwithstanding the Obama Administration making overtures to normalize relations, and the introduction of ferryboat and flight services from Florida ports to Cuba, the current administration looks rather sourly on Raul Castro and the Communists, and those commercial transportation ties are getting fractured  (I have not kept up with it, so anyone with latest knowledge please chime in).  The Communists have this protocol of requiring any visitor, especially the tourists, to have a "Permiso de Salida," or Exit Visa, issued after inspection of your travel documents and (sometimes) a personal interview, which is their way of controlling visitors and putting undesirable capitalists in their jails, and that is one of the more unappetizing routines of that regime. Now that Castro's oil allotment is getting shut down, which everyone blames on the Americans, you can expect those relations to get even frostier.  I advise all to stay away from Cuba, it remains dangerous for folks who are not Party Members. 

Will Venezuela get their pumping started up again?  I doubt it.  That is extra-thick stuff, hard to pump, hard to  process, no more diluent, no cash for more diluent, the experienced personnel have departed in groves, lots of important equipment looted, and seriously incompetent Chavistas sitting in management - all a recipe for a no-start. I anticipate no oil for Cuba in March and April.  Oh, well. Life is tough all around. 

Cuba does produce a little electricity from the burning of sugar stalks. Won't keep the refrigerators in the hotels at Veradero running, though. 

Edited March 14, 2019 by Jan van Eck
typing error

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

31 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

It already is.  Just now, the electricity flowing from some hydro dam that runs both the urban population and feeds poser to the oil enterprise has been interrupted for six days straight, and oil production is down to zero.  OK, so there is some oil sitting in storage tanks.  Once that is gone, there is no oil for anyone - including Cuba. 

Notwithstanding the Obama Administration making overtures to normalize relations, and the introduction of ferryboat and flight services from Florida ports to Cuba, the current administration looks rather sourly on Raul Castro and the Communists, and those commercial transportation ties are getting fractured  (I have not kept up with it, so anyone with latest knowledge please chime in).  The Communists have this protocol of requiring any visitor, especially the tourists, to have a "Permiso de Salida," or Exit Visa, issued after inspection of your travel documents and (sometimes) a personal interview, which is their way of controlling visitors and putting undesirable capitalists in their jails, and that is one of the more unappetizing routines of that regime. Now that Castro's oil allotment is getting shut down, which everyone blames on the Americans, you can expect those relations to get even frostier.  I advise all to stay away from Cuba, it remains dangerous for folks who are not Party Members. 

Will Venezuela get their pumping started up again?  I doubt it.  That is extra-thick stuff, hard to pump, hard to  process, no more diluent, no cash for more diluent, the experienced personnel have departed in groves, lots of important equipment looted, and seriously incompetent Chavistas sitting in management - all a recipe for a no-start. I anticipate no oil for Cuba in March and April.  Oh, well. Life is tough all around. 

Cuba does produce a little electricity from the burning of sugar stalks. Won't keep the refrigerators in the hotels at Veradero running, though. 

Aha!  So the strong Cuban influence is not simply ideological?  That makes a few things make more sense.  Any other information about the ties that bind?

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

9 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Aha!  So the strong Cuban influence is not simply ideological?  That makes a few things make more sense.  Any other information about the ties that bind?

Both Castro and Chavez confiscated foreign oil installations, specifically refineries, so that seriously soured things with the Americans. The Communists went out of their way to make enemies of the capitalists. You know the old saying:  "The enemy of my enemy is my friend."   Oh, well.   

I also have to assume that Venezuela is a customer for Cuban agriculture, now that Venezuelan ag is in the toilet.  But that is just my hunch, without any hard data.  If true, it would be a "tie that binds."  Cheers.