American shale export

[Embargo + 2]

Im very interested to know more about the american shale.

Were it goes?

Future potencial 

Polution

Effect on worldmarked😀

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

It is not just "American shale."  It appears that shale underlies or is next to every oil deposit out there.  So that implies that, underneath the Saudi oil fields, there are shale layers with billions of barrels of undiscovered oil.  Now, when the Saudis start fracking that shale.......

[John Foote + 1,135]

10 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Now, when the Saudis start fracking that shale.......

They are trying to, though for gas. When I left I'd say they were struggling with it. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 minute ago, John Foote said:

They are trying to, though for gas. When I left I'd say they were struggling with it. 

All a question of putting the right, experienced talent on the job, wouldn't you say?  I would think the Saudis would simply hire the talent, presumably guys from the US shale fields.  At a minimum, that gas would power the desalination machinery they really need. Until they get those monster solar-panel operations up and running. 😉

[John Foote + 1,135]

11 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

All a question of putting the right, experienced talent on the job, wouldn't you say?  

It's not so simple. That was the initial approach, hire pros, but management and leadership has to be local. And I respect that, it should be, but the decision making there is more based on politics and risk aversion than geology. Aramco knew their historical approach wouldn't work, so spun off a new empire, Unconventional Resources. But that threatened the existing empires, so it was brought into the fold once it got some size to it and struggled.

The decision making processes, the willingness to waste copious amounts of resources. They'll end up with wells that cost more than they produce. So they'll keep burning silly amounts of crude

They just never fire geologists, and they fired some good ones. Telling the truth is tough there, and a good western geologist enjoys telling you what an idiot you are.

The last response when I was there was to do build a mega project for petro chemicals from crude instead of gas. You can do that, but it's financial folly. Except they'll discount the oil to themselves. Another challenge for a IPO.

One other thing you'll find funny. They use supertankers to ship from the east to the southwest of the country. There are pipelines, but they only handle a fraction of the demand. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

2 hours ago, John Foote said:

It's not so simple. That was the initial approach, hire pros, but management and leadership has to be local. And I respect that, it should be, but the decision making there is more based on politics and risk aversion than geology. Aramco knew their historical approach wouldn't work, so spun off a new empire, Unconventional Resources. But that threatened the existing empires, so it was brought into the fold once it got some size to it and struggled.

The decision making processes, the willingness to waste copious amounts of resources. They'll end up with wells that cost more than they produce. So they'll keep burning silly amounts of crude

They just never fire geologists, and they fired some good ones. Telling the truth is tough there, and a good western geologist enjoys telling you what an idiot you are.

The last response when I was there was to do build a mega project for petro chemicals from crude instead of gas. You can do that, but it's financial folly. Except they'll discount the oil to themselves. Another challenge for a IPO.

One other thing you'll find funny. They use supertankers to ship from the east to the southwest of the country. There are pipelines, but they only handle a fraction of the demand. 

Fascinating, really. Do you get the sense that they are playing the long game when it comes to unconventional? I mean theoretically the oil is finite. when conventional is exhausted, they will want to tap it at any expense, no? I mean, unless Vision 2030 is actually Vision 2030 and not Vision 2100.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

10 hours ago, Rodent said:

Fascinating, really. Do you get the sense that they are playing the long game when it comes to unconventional? I mean theoretically the oil is finite. when conventional is exhausted, they will want to tap it at any expense, no? I mean, unless Vision 2030 is actually Vision 2030 and not Vision 2100.

The Saudi peninsula goes through long climate cycles. At one time it was a lush savanna, with six major rivers flowing into the Gulf and the Red Sea.  There was lots and lots of rainwater.  What seems to control the amount of rainwater there, and also along the entire North African Coast, is the wind patterns coming in off the Atlantic.  Sitting underneath the Sahara Desert are these huge aquifers, lakes of fresh water, fed by percolation from the surface, all fed by rain water.  You see these lakes coming up to the surface at the oases scattered about. And on top was a lush savanna, grasslands with large animals that you find in Africa.  Now all gone, with rock and sand in its place.  Will that ever come back?  But of course; it just takes some 15,000 years or so. 

In the meantime, are there possibilities for the Saudis to cool their land and promote rain?  Sure there are. I speculate, just a hunch, that the moisture comes from the Med, then wafts Eastward until it hits the mountains of Iran, where it comes down as snow.  If you want to promote local rain, then placing those vast fields of solar panels to absorb sunlight, and therefore heat energy, will result in cooler surface temperatures on the soil underneath.  The Saudis could also import soil and manure from the countries they sell oil to, potentially brought back as a fresh-water slurry in those tankers.  The material is then pumped out into the desert, for starters underneath those solar-panel fields, and built up to say six feet thick.  That earthen layer would act as a thermal shield, and with grasses and trees planted you would get a cooling effect.  From there, it is anybody's guess if that localized cooling would catalyze rain. 

For the Sahara and sub-Saharan areas, it would be a bit easier.  You have that massive Congo River,and digging out a diversion channel for some of that water to flow into the Sahara would be easy enough, just throw money at it.  With that big push of fresh water flowing over the land, sections of the desert would be reclaimed back to grasslands and trees.  Given that the larger threat to the planet is large-scale desertification, not CO2 emissions, putting the collective efforts into reclamation makes much more sense.  

[Embargo + 2]

Since start of january Im heavy invested in oilstocks and have allready made a good profit.

But il think it will go higher...

Much higher. 

My Biggest conserns are american shale

And a president who do everything to increase production

[Embargo + 2]

Hi jjcar. 

Im 100 0/0 real and with a very simple 

Strategy for my investment. 

I belive that we are in the bottom of the next cycle and that we can see a upturn for the offshoresector where i have put my money.

My conserns are on shale that grow very fast.

And a president who do everything to increase american production. 

If shaleproduction expand dramaticly over the next 1-2 years il go out of oilproduction and in to oilshipping. 

If american oilexport goes up from 2 to 4 blday it will be a boom in oilshipping 

 

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 4/5/2019 at 7:29 PM, Rodent said:

Fascinating, really. Do you get the sense that they are playing the long game when it comes to unconventional? 

Not at all. It was a an absolute sh*t show. The general consensus was to succeed they need to turnkey it to western drilling service companies. They already contract out so much of what they do. Go to the annual reports of the big oil service companies and you'll get some idea in the notes. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 hours ago, John Foote said:

The general consensus was to succeed they need to turnkey it to western drilling service companies. They already contract out so much of what they do. 

From what you write, I get the distinct impression that the Saudis have not built up an indigenous competent work force, specifically in the professional department.  If you don't have competent management and engineering staff, you remain totally beholden to the expats.  And if you want to keep those guys around, then the Enforcers of Morality Police have to leave the expat wives alone when they wear bikinis at the beach!  

[John Foote + 1,135]

14 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

From what you write, I get the distinct impression that the Saudis have not built up an indigenous competent work force, specifically in the professional department.  If you don't have competent management and engineering staff, you remain totally beholden to the expats.  And if you want to keep those guys around, then the Enforcers of Morality Police have to leave the expat wives alone when they wear bikinis at the beach!  

Bikinis I didn't see much, but they happened. Great private beach, especially the part for the sailboats. 

They are somewhat addicted to expats, but there is technical competence. The challenge is the politics overrides technical competence. Politics is far more important. Clearly the best politicians have technical skills. Khaled al Faleh is the son of VP. What was largely meritocracy as an American company was come to reflect the region, as it would/should, it is a Saudi company. There is a honor/shame risk aversion I don't understand, probably the antithesis of Silicon Valley entreprenuership. Until the Saudis took over, it was Saudis that did most of the work, although strategic decisions were kept with the Americans. I worked with one of Khaled's sons. Good enough guy, but scared the bejesus out of all the Saudis, kind of an untouchable.  One of my best friends was the son of a VP. 

One thing you have to give credit to MBS for, he seriously clipped the Ministry for Virtue and Vice's power. Now you can dance, have music, just don't even think something non-flattering of MBS.

They don't lack for westerners trying to go there. The financial benefits are substantial, and much of the lifestyle is fun.