What Would Happen If the World Ran Out of Crude Oil?

[RuudinFrance + 25]

Yeah, and of course Poland's got it right?

Poland is a rogue state within our Union (you got your sanctuary cities/states) and will eventually be cut of from EU assistance (if they don't change their ways) as they make a mockery of their judicial system and democracy alike. Pompeo's hands are all over it, silly, abusive and politically appointed ambassadors and all (Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, that I know off).

Ever looked at a map and seen the location of Ukraine in relation to Russia? Find it strange that Russia took an interest? Remember how Kennedy reacted in the Cuba crisis? USA parties instigated and paid for the Maidan affair, with help of over-enthusiasctic-, expansionist EU officials. Sevastopol being the only southern Russian navy harbor with access to the Atlantic, Mediterranean. Now Putin keeps the Donbass a simmering sore with distraction the only reason for it's existence. It may and will flare up at any convenient time.

Quote: "The U.S., seeking to tap into the European LNG market, has joined the choir of critics." Why am I not surprised? These days, I find Putin much more reliable than Trump. Vladimir is in a comfortable position though. His gas can go either West, East or South. Don't the USA understand that with all the bullying, funny handshakes, treacherous behavior, lying and deceit, he's pushing allies of old away? Don't you understand that the world at one moment will say: "America first?, fine, but please do it on your own then". Subsequently the USA will fail.

Venezuela is Pinochet's Chile revisited. Why not mention Korea, Yemen, Iran.

New blocks / alliances are being formed as we go and the USA may well become isolated. Ever had a look of your strategic list of materials? What if only 30% of these goods will not be delivered to the USA anymore? All stockpiles will run out eventually. 

Ever thought about how long Putin is already working his magic and how about Xi being chief in charge for the rest of his life? Long term projects and what has the USA got? Trump? Please let me have my LOL   as well.

Have fun.

 

 

 

[D Coyne + 305]

On 5/7/2019 at 4:43 PM, RuudinFrance said:

About fertility rates:

Country	Total Fertility Rate	Rank
Niger	7.153 children per woman	1
Somalia	6.123 children per woman	2
Dr Congo	5.963 children per woman	3
Mali	5.922 children per woman	4
Chad	5.797 children per woman	5
Angola	5.589 children per woman	6
Burundi	5.577 children per woman	7
Uganda	5.456 children per woman	8
Nigeria	5.417 children per woman	9
Timor Leste	5.337 children per woman	10
Gambia	5.318 children per woman	11
Burkina Faso	5.231 children per woman	12
Mozambique	5.143 children per woman	13
Tanzania	4.924 children per woman	14
Zambia	4.901 children per woman	15
Benin	4.867 children per woman	16
Ivory Coast	4.811 children per woman	17
Central African Republic	4.754 children per woman	18
Guinea	4.738 children per woman	19
South Sudan	4.736 children per woman	20
Senegal	4.647 children per woman	21
Cameroon	4.603 children per woman	22
Mauritania	4.576 children per woman	23
Republic Of The Congo	4.561 children per woman	24
Equatorial Guinea	4.554 children per woman	25

http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/total-fertility-rate/

Have fun.

World average total fertility ratio was about 5 in 1960 and about 2.5 in 2005.

Here are some other nations' total fertility ratios

placeName	value	rank
Taiwan	1.218	1
Moldova	1.23	2
Portugal	1.241	3
Singapore	1.26	4
Poland	1.29	5
Greece	1.302	6
South Korea	1.323	7
Hong Kong	1.326	8
Cyprus	1.337	9
Macau	1.347	10
Bosnia and Herzegovina	1.386	11
Spain	1.391	12
Hungary	1.397	13
Mauritius	1.433	14
Saint Lucia	1.444	15
Croatia	1.446	16
Thailand	1.458	17
Slovakia	1.462	18
Puerto Rico	1.47	19
Germany	1.47	20
Malta	1.475	21
Japan	1.478	22
Italy	1.491	23
Austria	1.511	24
Romania	1.54	25
Macedonia	1.546	26
Switzerland	1.549	27
Ukraine	1.557	28
Canada	1.563	29
Czech Republic	1.566	30
Latvia	1.57	31
Bulgaria	1.584	32
Luxembourg	1.594	33
Armenia	1.601	34
Serbia	1.62	35
Iran	1.621	36
China	1.635	37
Slovenia	1.638	38
Montenegro	1.657	39
Estonia	1.659	40

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

On 5/6/2019 at 9:56 AM, gkam44 said:

Let us look at reality. Being a former engineer for a large power company and having earned a Master of Science in Energy and the Environment, I had PV panels installed three years ago, with my estimated payback of 15-17 years, . . the right thing for an eco-freak to do. Before they could be installed, we acquired a VW e-Golf electric car. The savings in gasoline alone took the solar system payback down to 3 1/2 years. So, we added another electric car, and that took the payback down to less than three years, which means we now get free power for household and transportation.

And that ONLY works in California and other desert or Mediterranean climates.... which is where almost NO ONE lives.  Does not work in most of the USA, Europe, China, Japan.  Why?  NO DAMNED SUN other than for a fraction of the year.  WE have these things called clouds/trees for most of the year when we need the most power and sun when we do not need much power. 

https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1118486429309575168

PS: I have solar thermal(self made ~ effectively free).  Works 3/4 of the year and ~30% for the other 3 months of the year provides heating.  Tried a solar panel or two... 5 months of the year .... when I do not need the power other than for refrigerators...  The cost of PV?  Prohibitive without stealing from your neighbors in the form of euphemistically called, "rebates" and effectively not allowed to install it yourself unless you are going off grid driving up the cost. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

On 5/8/2019 at 8:12 PM, RuudinFrance said:

Yeah, and of course Poland's got it right?

Poland is a rogue state within our Union (you got your sanctuary cities/states) and will eventually be cut of from EU assistance (if they don't change their ways) as they make a mockery of their judicial system and democracy alike. Pompeo's hands are all over it, silly, abusive and politically appointed ambassadors and all (Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, that I know off).

So, pre 1990 Communist judges who have 100% control over new judicial appointees should retain their positions and power...

Are you UTTERLY delusional? Where is your "righteous" indignation when Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Czeck republic, Slovakia, Hungary all THREW the judges out?

Oh wait, you are from France who is essentially an oligarchy with a veneer of democracy.  Where the government holds all the power...  Don't worry, USA is going down the same path slowly as most of our judges are only coming out of a few schools. IF this is not stopped the USA will devolve into the oligarchy like France and the USSR.  Western Europe and the USA will be the new USSR unless things change quickly. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

On 5/8/2019 at 8:12 PM, RuudinFrance said:

New blocks / alliances are being formed as we go and the USA may well become isolated. Ever had a look of your strategic list of materials? What if only 30% of these goods will not be delivered to the USA anymore? All stockpiles will run out eventually.

Materials?  All of them exist in the USA/Canada.  They have stopped being mined due to "FREE" trade where the only part which is "FREE" is environmental regulations freely vanished along with their massive costs when the materials are imported from foreign nations. 

And have you bothered to look at the EU who is riding the USA back?  Unlike the USA/Canada, EU  gets almost 100% of EVERYTHING from outside of its borders other than most of its food and coal.

[RuudinFrance + 25]

You're wrong Wastral. Below list (2013) includes "natural rubber" as a strategic material. I don't think these trees grow in Canada.

https://mineralsmakelife.org/assets/images/content/resources/Strategic_and_Critical_Materials_2013_Report_on_Stockpile_Requirements.pdf

-USA / Canada (only in case they want to play, they're both in NAFTA and CETA now) got less than what you think and 

-EU got more than what you think, among other things, we got Russia to supply us. And Russia, at present, is a tad more reliable than USA is.   We've got a market of 550 million consumers. I know USA would like to abuse us, as USA is claiming China is abusing USA. Good thing that   the Chinese turned their backs at USA today. They'll keep working on the New Silk Route to the exclusion of the USA.

I get most of my news from Al Jazeera, BBC World. Consensus is that tariffs cost an average 4 person family in the USA $700.- on a yearly basis. For some people that's only $700.-, others will no longer vote GOP, it's proving to be just too expensive.

Free trade is a good thing. It's not that China is selling too much in the USA, it's more that Americans are buying too much stuff from China. Stop doing that, stop instant satisfaction purchases from China and save $700/yr/family of 4.

As stated before (other post): USA imports all wide plate for car/truck body parts from Europe (Mittal). We make it in the proper quality and width. The USA has no factories that can do the same, just not capable of, not good enough, no proper equipment. In twelve years time and with countless millions in research and investment, you just might be able to produce the size and quality. Until that time, your consumers will pay the tariffs. And you're welcome to them.

US-steel delivers pipes that fail. Personal experience, rotten quality from derelict facilities. Chinese pipes, same service, were perfect and cheaper (but admittedly not the numbers), even with all the transport cost.

But please, keep on thinking that you're the best, that you can run this thing alone in an ever increasingly insulted world that eventually will attack the petrodollar and will marginalize the USA after that.

I can't say that I'm looking forward to it, but your present direction is exactly thattaway.

Have fun.

[RuudinFrance + 25]

1 hour ago, Wastral said:

So, pre 1990 Communist judges who have 100% control over new judicial appointees should retain their positions and power...

Are you UTTERLY delusional? Where is your "righteous" indignation when Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Czeck republic, Slovakia, Hungary all THREW the judges out?

Oh wait, you are from France who is essentially an oligarchy with a veneer of democracy.  Where the government holds all the power...  Don't worry, USA is going down the same path slowly as most of our judges are only coming out of a few schools. IF this is not stopped the USA will devolve into the oligarchy like France and the USSR.  Western Europe and the USA will be the new USSR unless things change quickly. 

Well, you mentioned Latvia.

I'd say, a model case: http://at.gov.lv/en

Than there's Poland, not so much a model case: https://freedomhouse.org/report/special-reports/hostile-takeover-how-law-and-justice-captured-poland-s-courts

And again, "Les Republicains" and "Les Socialistes" found out with LREM, what democracy was all about. I'd say the "veneer of Democracy" is a bit thinner in the USA than it is in European states as wel as the EU as a whole.

Agreed, a lot should be done to save democracy. And it could be done. Would people be willing to make the effort? There's no hope for the millennials, maybe generation "Z", I hear they're worker bees.

 

Have fun.

 

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, RuudinFrance said:

 "natural rubber" as a strategic material. I don't think these trees grow in Canada.

No they don't - but we can make "traditional" rubber from - you guessed it oil.  It's just polymerized isoprene.

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

2 hours ago, RuudinFrance said:

Than there's Poland, not so much a model case: https://freedomhouse.org/report/special-reports/hostile-takeover-how-law-and-justice-captured-poland-s-courts

And this IS a model case.  It should have been done 15 years ago.  Judges appointing judges is blatant corrupt institution which need massive restructuring. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

3 hours ago, RuudinFrance said:

But please, keep on thinking that you're the best, that you can run this thing alone in an ever increasingly insulted world that eventually will attack the petrodollar and will marginalize the USA after that.

And therein is your problem.  No one is helping "run the wold".  EU just wants to suck off $$$ while bitching about it.  USA petrodollar will fall, so?  Marginalize?  No.  Is the UK/France marginalized?  No.  And the world really likes to eat.

As for the "best" it is not about being the "best" ... well it is, but it is about supporting freedom and NOT supporting dictators, oligarchies, something that used to be true during the cold war and which was lost after 1990 and why dictators are FLOURISHING today.  Must retie economics and morality(governance) otherwise everyone descends to oligarchy/dictatorships.  Stop the unbriddled capitalism.  Just leads to a different form of serfdom.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, Wastral said:

And therein is your problem.  No one is helping "run the wold".  EU just wants to suck off $$$ while bitching about it.  USA petrodollar will fall, so?  Marginalize?  No.  Is the UK/France marginalized?  No.  And the world really likes to eat.

As for the "best" it is not about being the "best" ... well it is, but it is about supporting freedom and NOT supporting dictators, oligarchies, something that used to be true during the cold war and which was lost after 1990 and why dictators are FLOURISHING today.  Must retie economics and morality(governance) otherwise everyone descends to oligarchy/dictatorships.  Stop the unbriddled capitalism.  Just leads to a different form of serfdom.

Every executive order is a step towards dictatorship in the US.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

16 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Every executive order is a step towards dictatorship in the US.

Easy answer: Congress do your job.  But there needs to be limits on Executive branch.  The powers added during WWII and the cold war need to be massively pruned back.  100% of all war powers outside of nuclear attack need to be removed as well. 

 

[RuudinFrance + 25]

6 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

No they don't - but we can make "traditional" rubber from - you guessed it oil.  It's just polymerized isoprene.

 

Thank you, well aware of that, but why put it on the list at all than? What makes natural rubber so special?

Next: Uranium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxzXTwhC4c0 Why investigation with section 232? The miners will love it though and consumer prices will go up.

All strategic materials: https://www.dla.mil/HQ/Acquisition/StrategicMaterials/Materials/ take your pick and investigate for yourself.

So why insist on going this alone, why insist on the world, eventually, forcing you to go it alone. You'll fail. Imagine, the world treating the USA as the USA is treating N.Korea, Iran, Venezuela. 

Europe, on the other hand, has a similar list, but fwiw, we try to cozy up to ALL, and difficult enough that proves to be at times.

Sure Vlad, we slap sanctions on you for Crimea and some more for MH17 and some more for Donbass, but we'd appreciate your Nordstream II gas. Sure Donald we'll build terminals for NA gas if that makes you happy (gniffle: little did you know those stations were on the board already). Sure Donald, we'll accept your politically appointed ambassadors to our countries and let them spout their empty threads, which only turn people with some remaining affections to USA, utterly against you. Al Jazeera reported last evening on Chinese civilians change of attitude towards USA. Yup, you're doing great.

A better sample case concerning a difficult dance for EU is Turkey. Ah, man, it's all good fun and games, but one has to be a little smart about it. And triumvirate Trump/Bolton/Pompeo just doen't qualify. On an international scale they bring Joe McCarthy back to life. 

Have fun.

 

 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 5/6/2019 at 11:56 AM, gkam44 said:

Let us look at reality. Being a former engineer for a large power company and having earned a Master of Science in Energy and the Environment, I had PV panels installed three years ago, with my estimated payback of 15-17 years, . . the right thing for an eco-freak to do. Before they could be installed, we acquired a VW e-Golf electric car. The savings in gasoline alone took the solar system payback down to 3 1/2 years. So, we added another electric car, and that took the payback down to less than three years, which means we now get free power for household and transportation.

But that is not all: We do not need to go to gas stations, we fuel up at home at night with cheap baseload power. During the daytime, the PV system turns our meter backwards powering the neighborhood with clean local power, which we trade for the stuff used the night before. If we paid for transportation fuel, the VW would cost us 3 cents/mile to drive, and the Tesla Model S P 85 would cost 4 cents/mile at California power prices. 

No oil changes are a real treat along with no leaks. And since it has an electric motor, it needs NO ENGINE MAINTENANCE at all. We do not go "gas up", or get tune-ups or emissions checks, have no transmission about which to worry, no complicated machined parts needing care. THAT is what will sell the EV, and the real problem is not powering them, (the power companies have been working on and praying for the EV for a generation), the problem will be  dealing with an economy which has had a large portion taken out of it. 

Too much of our economy is dependent on the needs of the internal combustion engine, from mechanics to emissions checkers to the folk who make oil filters, and all the folk who support them. I see a rush to EVs, (go drive one, and see), and the implications of this advance as an impending wave of dislocation for this society for which we must plan now.

We will still want petroleum, but should not burn it primarily.

What would your payback have been if you skipped the solar and just did electric cars?

[Okie + 83]

On 4/29/2019 at 8:13 PM, ronwagn said:

Natural gas can fuel any engine that gasoline or diesel can. It is also far more abundant, cleaner, and less expensive.

It is less expensive now because there is not as much demand for it.  It is also less energy dense.  That may not matter if such engines can be made more efficiently to offset it.  The increased efficiency of battery electric motors is what allows the reduced energy density in battery storage to offset the difference.  Also, battery electric engines do not run while at a stop, also saving energy.

My original point being that your estimate of natural gas being cheaper is only because there is currently less use for it.  If you were to have it used in all forms of transportation, I suspect that the price would increase rapidly, which might then require us to look for methane hydrates in the sea, as well as on land.

[Okie + 83]

On 4/29/2019 at 11:22 PM, DC_Zee said:

I like the book "The Long Emergency" by james howard kunstler. It is a good read and offers a stark answer to this post's question.  

I see that someone finally mentioned Mr. Kunstler's book.  I had a couple of e-mail exchanges with him around the time of the financial crash (maybe a few years before or after).  I remarked to him that I thought it was scary how much we thought alike, although, I tend to think that there is some hope of avoiding A World Made By Hand.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B008V43WTI/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1

For a contrary view, see a recent article by Naked Capitalism (doomer article)

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/05/ilargi-renewables-are-dead.html

commenting on the recent Forbes article called The Reason Renewables Can't Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/05/06/the-reason-renewables-cant-power-modern-civilization-is-because-they-were-never-meant-to/#3bc3283aea2b

which itself was about a Der Spiegel article, which in English is titled A Botched Job in Germany: Energy transition threatens to fail

https://docs.google.com/document/d/148Lym3a487S8lha50QXGJfjQ1HmlNyj3QfLqAt0k0ng/edit#heading=h.kd2ryjr2jzvx

.Anyway, recent developments in energy storage appear to have solved the problem.  It should be noted that the article in Der Spiegel represents only the most right-wing view, so it is not surprising that it was referenced in Forbes.  (There was a German commenter on the linked Naked Capitalism article that said this, so I am taking them at their word.)

Food for thought.

 

 

[Okie + 83]

On 4/30/2019 at 11:29 AM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

On that note, the problem with well-educated specialists is that they have little time to develop other skills.  Outside their area of expertise, we should probably listen to them less.

On the other hand, when I was in college, some political science or humanities professor said something I thought was profound: "Society advances due to specialization."  Meaning that inventions and efficiencies are discovered by those who specialize in a single field of study.  Advanced Western cultures have grown in power and economically precisely because we have created the luxury of only doing one thing in life and doing it well.

[Okie + 83]

On 5/7/2019 at 3:35 PM, RuudinFrance said:

Climate Change may represent a real threat to humanity, but absent fossil fuels it is likely that 6 billion or more people would pass away in the first six months in this post–fossil fuel world.

Which, if read right, represents an argument for creating other forms of energy for transportation, as fossil fuels currently represents a single point of failure, whereas nature desires redundancy.  It would be wise from a survival standpoint to develop other distributed forms of energy.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

7 hours ago, Okie said:

It is less expensive now because there is not as much demand for it.  It is also less energy dense.  That may not matter if such engines can be made more efficiently to offset it.  The increased efficiency of battery electric motors is what allows the reduced energy density in battery storage to offset the difference.  Also, battery electric engines do not run while at a stop, also saving energy.

My original point being that your estimate of natural gas being cheaper is only because there is currently less use for it.  If you were to have it used in all forms of transportation, I suspect that the price would increase rapidly, which might then require us to look for methane hydrates in the sea, as well as on land.

You just don't have a grasp of the amount of natural gas that is available not touching methane hydrates. You need to consider biogas also.

It is not as if natural gas will take over from petroleum suddenly, it will take decades. Wind and Solar will compete all through the process. May the best cost benefit ratio win. 

I appreciate electric vehicles. They produce little waste heat and are great for small vehicles. I think hybrids may make more sense for larger vehicles. Any fuel saving tech is great. 

 

 

Edited May 11, 2019 by ronwagn

[Robert Titley + 1]

The thread started talking about Spindeltop...which I believe was 1,100 foot deep vertical well with pretty small pipe...it or it’s unit produced something like 7 million bbl of liquid oil in its first five years. Today the average shale well drives pipe weighing 160 lbs a foot how far?  3 miles at least, sometimes 4 miles? And I believe the overall u.s. average shale EUR is 300,000 bbl oil equivalent (of which maybe 30-40% is gas). So net energy return is collapsing. the amount of energy it takes to produce a unit of energy is going through the roof, and that is a hidden tax on the economy. It’s not a question of price..price is dictated by volume of production which currently is being funded by massive amounts of debt. It’s an issue of how many joules or watts it takes to produces how many joules or watts. A point on natural gas is we have a few trillion dollars (don’t know the best estimate would love to hear guesses)  invested in liquid fueled engines that can’t run on gas. 

To me the greatest hope is a commercial breakthrough in artificial photosynthesis. Chemical processes to creat hydrocarbon fuels which would be carbon neutral and address the liquid fuel and energy density problem. I have seen a few bench top experiments reported on. Oak Ridge labs in Tennessee created alcohol at room temperature from sunlight in one. That to me is where we need to pile tons of research money. 

[Okie + 83]

32 minutes ago, Robert Titley said:

I have seen a few bench top experiments reported on. Oak Ridge labs in Tennessee created alcohol at room temperature from sunlight in one. That to me is where we need to pile tons of research money. 

Can it be done at scale to make it cost effective?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

22 hours ago, RuudinFrance said:

Thank you, well aware of that, but why put it on the list at all than? What makes natural rubber so special?

Next: Uranium: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxzXTwhC4c0 Why investigation with section 232? The miners will love it though and consumer prices will go up.

All strategic materials: https://www.dla.mil/HQ/Acquisition/StrategicMaterials/Materials/ take your pick and investigate for yourself.

So why insist on going this alone, why insist on the world, eventually, forcing you to go it alone. You'll fail. Imagine, the world treating the USA as the USA is treating N.Korea, Iran, Venezuela. 

Europe, on the other hand, has a similar list, but fwiw, we try to cozy up to ALL, and difficult enough that proves to be at times.

Sure Vlad, we slap sanctions on you for Crimea and some more for MH17 and some more for Donbass, but we'd appreciate your Nordstream II gas. Sure Donald we'll build terminals for NA gas if that makes you happy (gniffle: little did you know those stations were on the board already). Sure Donald, we'll accept your politically appointed ambassadors to our countries and let them spout their empty threads, which only turn people with some remaining affections to USA, utterly against you. Al Jazeera reported last evening on Chinese civilians change of attitude towards USA. Yup, you're doing great.

A better sample case concerning a difficult dance for EU is Turkey. Ah, man, it's all good fun and games, but one has to be a little smart about it. And triumvirate Trump/Bolton/Pompeo just doen't qualify. On an international scale they bring Joe McCarthy back to life. 

Have fun.

Welcome to how the world works.  You go it alone unless your partners put skin in the game and have the same values.  The USA's partners who claim they have the same values(mostly Europe) have refused to put skin in the game to uphold the order.  Europe has decided that Utopia is a great place to reside and there is no right/wrong(except when they say so of course..... 28 version of it) and there should not be borders and the nation state does not exist after all... the EU now does not have a military anymore, nor an international presence as that smells like colonialism... or oh horrors telling a country that if they want to trade with you they must change how they govern....  So, EU has gone completely into the hands of their oligarchy and mostly the USA has done the same as they are both playing pretend games that the oligarchy rich can work(bribe)/operate with dictators increasing their power without consequences and demanding the right to trade is restricted by change. 

There is a reason a nation is a nation and not a state in another nation.  Culture, governance, law, justice

As for the Chinese citizens, of course the numbers have plummeted.  USA is telling China to stop forced theft of other countries IP and allowing theft/bribery to run rampant in their country and allow foreign companies to operate in China without a sponsor and gasp... own property which they do not allow their own citizens......  Letting China into WTO was beyond stupid.   Now the Chickens will be coming home to roost for the EU/USA because of their stupidity due to greed by the 0.1% of placing their manufacturing in China instead of at home allowing awesome short term profits.   As Lenin said, "Capitalists will sell the rope to their own hanging".  Unfettered capitalism is no better than Socialism/Fascism/Communism

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

4 hours ago, Robert Titley said:

The thread started talking about Spindeltop...which I believe was 1,100 foot deep vertical well with pretty small pipe...it or it’s unit produced something like 7 million bbl of liquid oil in its first five years. Today the average shale well drives pipe weighing 160 lbs a foot how far?  3 miles at least, sometimes 4 miles? And I believe the overall u.s. average shale EUR is 300,000 bbl oil equivalent (of which maybe 30-40% is gas). So net energy return is collapsing. the amount of energy it takes to produce a unit of energy is going through the roof, and that is a hidden tax on the economy. It’s not a question of price..price is dictated by volume of production which currently is being funded by massive amounts of debt. It’s an issue of how many joules or watts it takes to produces how many joules or watts. A point on natural gas is we have a few trillion dollars (don’t know the best estimate would love to hear guesses)  invested in liquid fueled engines that can’t run on gas. 

To me the greatest hope is a commercial breakthrough in artificial photosynthesis. Chemical processes to creat hydrocarbon fuels which would be carbon neutral and address the liquid fuel and energy density problem. I have seen a few bench top experiments reported on. Oak Ridge labs in Tennessee created alcohol at room temperature from sunlight in one. That to me is where we need to pile tons of research money. 

Average depth of shale wells is about 6000-->8000ft...  Laterals are concrete, perforatted, and fracked...

Do you know anything about the industry at all?

<<does simple math... 10 carry the 1.... about 1.5miles of pipe not 3 or 4 miles. 

And no, it is not 160lbs per foot on average.  The Hell, that would be 3/4t on a 12" dia.  Try half that at most for even big pipe.  Only the biggest of all bore holes get pipe of those monster diameters.  5 1/2" -->8 1/2" casing is common.  What are you quoting?  Nuclear test bore holes?  🙄👹😂

Edited May 12, 2019 by Wastral
Added 8 1/2"

[Okie + 83]

4 hours ago, Wastral said:

As for the Chinese citizens, of course the numbers have plummeted.  USA is telling China to stop forced theft of other countries IP and allowing theft/bribery to run rampant in their country and allow foreign companies to operate in China without a sponsor and gasp... own property which they do not allow their own citizens......  Letting China into WTO was beyond stupid.   Now the Chickens will be coming home to roost for the EU/USA because of their stupidity due to greed by the 0.1% of placing their manufacturing in China instead of at home allowing awesome short term profits.   As Lenin said, "Capitalists will sell the rope to their own hanging".  Unfettered capitalism is no better than Socialism/Fascism/Communism

That is the first time you have said something that I thought was reasonable.  Most of the time, you just seem like a troll.

[canadas canadas + 136]

I have been taught that the order for crude oil resource go to is 

light oil, sweet oil, sour oil, medium oil, heavy oil, extra-heavy oil, bitumen, oil tar sands, tight sands, oil shale, coal oil.

I have been taught that the order for natural gas resource go to is 

condensate, wet gas, sweet gas, dry gas, sour gas, cng, lng, shale gas, tight sands, coal bed methane, methane hydrates, methane biogas.

Edited May 12, 2019 by canadas canadas