Venezuela - Russian mischief if Maduro falls?

[C.B. Saunders + 14]

As I look at the situation in Venezuela, I pray for its people - who've suffered under a socialist tyrant far too long.

But I also think about Russia and the crude market. If Guaido is successful and Maduro falls, I have to think about the moves available to Russia. They have significant forces on the ground, but not enough to stay indefinitely against the wishes of the Guaido govt. What moves do they make on the way out?

Do the Russians have the means and motive to significantly sabotage Venezuela's crude export capacity? Take those barrels off the market for 2-4 years as expensive, complex facilities are repaired/replaced? What would it be worth to Russia? Enough to take the risk?

As a major crude buyer with forces on the ground and large debts to be repaid by Venezuelan crude exports , would China have the means and motivation to thwart potential Russian sabotage?

Discuss?

[C.B. Saunders + 14]

More specifically, what are the weak links which, if destroyed,  would take the most barrels off the market for the longest.

Hopefully, China/NSA/Guaido friends are monitoring this forum and will take steps to protect Venezuelan production/export assets, mitigate damage.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

It is unrealistic to think that either China or Russia would attempt to do sabotage on the Venezuelan oil facilities.  The optics are not there.  It would make them look terrible, and nobody would want to engage with them in the commercial marketplace.  It would also create a huge reaction in Latin America, closing the door to whatever else they might have in mind.  And it would spur rejection of Russian desires to sell into their European market, with rejection of Nordstream II, and sales into Rotterdam of crude.  Then on top of all that you would have the reaction of the Americans, with collapse of the China Trade Talks, and further expansions and tightening of sanctions and asset freezes on Russians by the US.  I just don't see this as happening. 

As to your second comment, that Guaido would take steps to protect export and production assets, these are already deteriorated, Venezuela will have to make a deal with a US supplier in order to get any re-start going.  I anticipate that US demand for heavy crude will be met at least in part by the Canadians.  Canada has a golden opportunity to cash in with heavy oil sales to the USA.  In true Canadian political fashion, they are blowing it. 

[HermitMunster + 146]

43 minutes ago, C.B. Saunders said:

As I look at the situation in Venezuela, I pray for its people - who've suffered under a socialist tyrant far too long.

But I also think about Russia and the crude market. If Guaido is successful and Maduro falls, I have to think about the moves available to Russia. They have significant forces on the ground, but not enough to stay indefinitely against the wishes of the Guaido govt. What moves do they make on the way out?

Do the Russians have the means and motive to significantly sabotage Venezuela's crude export capacity? Take those barrels off the market for 2-4 years as expensive, complex facilities are repaired/replaced? What would it be worth to Russia? Enough to take the risk?

As a major crude buyer with forces on the ground and large debts to be repaid by Venezuelan crude exports , would China have the means and motivation to thwart potential Russian sabotage?

Discuss?

Which socialist tyrant?

[Glenn Ellis + 57]

ROSNEFT the Russian oil giant, owns 49% of Citgo, the U.S. arm of PDVSA.....

El Presidente MADURO keeps giving his cronies more of PDVSA........

The Chinese would like to get paid on their investment(s)........

Wealthy Chinese from the mainland, are buying property in Venezuela at discounted rates.........

The Russians, one assumes, along with the Iran operatives, as well as the Cuban intel network......would like to see their assets protected............

Young Guaido, has some of the military behind him but at this point not enough.

Civilians, in the streets are no match for Maduro's thug military, Cuban Intel, Iranian meddlers, And Russian Spenaz troops (at least a planeload of them)

The people are unARMED, thanks to a 2013 move by CHAVENISTAS to disarm the people........... CHAVEZ & MADURO familia are the largest landowners in the county........They could provide the much needed produce to feed the country......

Still, the people use whatever they can against the tyranny in Caracas...........

! VENEZUEALA SI !    ~   ! MADURO NO !

! VIVA GUAIDO !  ~   ! VIVA LIBERTAD !