EIA oil production trends

[Robert Gourdie + 2]

I have a technical question

Can anyone explain the reason(s) behind the divergence between MONTHLY estimates of U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil, which is on a downward trend (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M), and WEEKLY U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil, which on an upward trend (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W) ? My presumption is that the monthly estimate is more accurate, but what seems surprising is that the market takes more guidance from the less accurate weekly estimate.   Tx

[Danlxyz + 63]

It's that old trade off between speed and accuracy. You'll notice the weekly estimates are rounded to the nearest 100,000 bbls but the monthly figures are not rounded.

The timing is different too. The monthly is through Feb 2019 (winter) and the weekly is Apr 26,2019 (spring)

[wrs + 893]

I think weekly numbers are estimates from surveys whereas monthly data is taken from posted results.  In Texas, producers report production to the RRC on a monthly basis and that data is delayed by 30 days.  So for instance, RRC is just now showing production data for March at the beginning of May.  The EIA will use that data for the monthly estimates which is more accurate than the weekly surveys.

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

17 hours ago, Robert Gourdie said:

My presumption is that the monthly estimate is more accurate, but what seems surprising is that the market takes more guidance from the less accurate weekly estimate.

You're right. The monthly figures are based on actual production. The others are estimates. Goes to show how brainless the market actually is.

[Robert Gourdie + 2]

Tx to all, Responses appreciated. I took the time to plot out differences between the weekly and monthly estimates over time. Its variable from month to month - but over the last few years (since 2008) there seems to be a trend for the weekly production estimates to underestimate the monthly number.