Why is Strait of Hormuz the World's Most Important Oil Artery

[Rodent + 1,424]

9 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

If they want to make sacrifices, more power to them.  Personally, I think they should commit ritualistic mass suicide.  The power of the Ultimate Virtue Signal will align the planets, focusing the universe's energies on earth and saving us from the Dark Forces of Pollution.  In honor of their sacrifice, we the survivors will celebrate Vegan Day, on which no animals will be slaughtered or consumed. 

While I applaud the certainty and finality that this solution offers, I can only assume that this ultimate sacrifice will have few takers.

10 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

But anyway, the Strait of Hormuz.  I think its relevance will end in a few years as the Middle East loses market share and pipelines are built to circumvent it.  In the mean time, I don't think Iran would dare close it because that would trigger an immediate, violent end to every country bordering the Persian Gulf - and they all know it. 

Have I missed anything?

Iran will indeed NOT close the Strait unless they are delusional for the exact reason you suggest (and because they need it open as much as everyone else). And yes, the world has already grown tired of the shenanigans near the Strait and the inherent risk of sailing through it. Just a matter of time before people find their own way around it. In the meantime, that's what they get for putting all their eggs in the Hormuz basket. 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

1 hour ago, Rodent said:

While I applaud the certainty and finality that this solution offers, I can only assume that this ultimate sacrifice will have few takers.

Of course.  They don't actually believe anything they say.

1 hour ago, Rodent said:

In the meantime, that's what they get for putting all their eggs in the Hormuz basket.  

I suspect they put all their eggs in teh Hormuz basket precisely because it discourages both internal warring and external intervention.  Their current problem is that the deterrent to external intervention is no longer working.  They need the world more than the world needs them

The next decade will be a pivotal time in world history - and by that I mean, "A hilarious show." 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Persian Gulf Now Most Risky for Oil Tankers Since Last Iraq War

 

Not since 2005 have the world’s insurers considered shipping in the Persian Gulf so dangerous for oil tankers.

The Joint War Committee of London’s Lloyd’s Market Association said Friday that it would expand its so-called ‘listed areas’ — those regions that pose the greatest risks for shipping, and potentially warranting higher insurance costs — to include the entire Persian Gulf. The last time the entire region held the designation was a period that ended in June 2005 and encompassed the most recent Iraq War. It highlights the growing risks in the world’s most important export region and chokepoint for oil.

The classification comes after the committee met to discuss the sabotage of four tankers at the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia said those incidents represented an attack on its fleet, with the nation’s energy minister describing it as an attempt to prevent the free flow of goods over the world’s oceans.

Intense Period
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran — two key global oil producers — have been steadily rising in recent weeks, while the U.S. is ratcheting up its sanctions regime on the Persian Gulf state.

“In terms of geopolitics, I don’t remember a period that was as intense as today,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of consultancy Petromatrix GmbH.

Growing tensions in the region are significant for oil markets, as the Strait of Hormuz, the key bottleneck in and out of the Persian Gulf, sees tankers hauling about 16.5 million barrels of oil passing through it daily. As such, any curb to flows through the region would have a significant impact on crude prices.

Fujairah Too
The Joint War Committee’s decision also means the port of Fujairah is now considered an area of more significant risk. That matters because it’s one of the world’s major areas for refueling tankers, along with Singapore and Rotterdam.

“We’ve heightened the security levels on our ships,” Robert Hvide Macleod, CEO at tanker company Frontline Ltd., said in an earnings call. “The situation in the area, in terms of the risk levels, they’re obviously up and we’re raising the alerts on the ships.”

It will take time for higher insurance costs to filter through to the market. The Committee’s decision will could lead to an additional premium for ships sailing to the Persian Gulf, but some underwriters are still deciding how to respond. The Committee’s decisions aren’t binding, though they’re generally followed by the world’s insurers.

Real Impact
Most important though, is the potential effect on global oil supply if the insurers’ concerns turn out to be well founded.

Both the U.S. and Iran have escalated a war of words that culminated in President Trump saying Sunday that further acts of aggression would be “the official end of Iran.” Though both the U.S. and Iranian regimes have also dismissed the prospect of war, those in charge of valuing risks see skirmishes like the sabotage in the U.A.E. as adding to the potential financial cost of doing business in the region.

“There is no doubt that considerable damage was done and there will be significant claims,” the Committee said in a statement, referring to the attacks at Fujairah, adding that there is now “heightened risk across the region.”

[Rodent + 1,424]

Kuwait and Qatar are looking to go through Iraq instead in case the Strait is closed.

[Wallace907 + 3]

8 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Clarifying question: does "fundamentally" mean "completely" or "in principle, but not in detail"? 

the latter.

 

7 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

But anyway, the Strait of Hormuz.  I think its relevance will end in a few years as the Middle East loses market share and pipelines are built to circumvent it.  In the mean time, I don't think Iran would dare close it because that would trigger an immediate, violent end to every country bordering the Persian Gulf - and they all know it. 

Have I missed anything?

seems like Iran, through its proxies, may try to close the strait through various means...as a way to retain plausible deniability.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

1 hour ago, Wallace907 said:

seems like Iran, through its proxies, may try to close the strait through various means...as a way to retain plausible deniability.

I think they would have tried that while Obama was president, he being a spineless, academic dimwit who thought he could make friends.  Trump, on the other hand, is a businessman.  Trump will see the countries of that region as managers of the region's oil business - and he'll hold them accountable for their results.  I.e. Trump won't care who disrupts shipping; the second it's disrupted, he'll fire the managers.  These countries' mad scrambles to ensure peace is their acknowledgement of Trump's orders.

There' already been a precedent for this: leading up to the 2018 election, Trump called for lower oil prices.  Lip service was paid, but the prices didn't come down.  Thus, Trump tanked oil prices, costing the responsible parties a lot of money.  That was their lesson in how this works, and I suspect they learned it. 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

6 hours ago, Rodent said:

Kuwait and Qatar are looking to go through Iraq instead in case the Strait is closed.

Oddly enough, this morning I submitted a job application for a 1 year contract (extendable) for an oil & gas project in Iraq;  the gig has an urgent requirement to mobilize in less than 1 month.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

14 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

If they want to make sacrifices, more power to them.  Personally, I think they should commit ritualistic mass suicide.  The power of the Ultimate Virtue Signal will align the planets, focusing the universe's energies on earth and saving us from the Dark Forces of Pollution.  In honor of their sacrifice, we the survivors will celebrate Vegan Day, on which no animals will be slaughtered or consumed. 

 

14 hours ago, Rodent said:

While I applaud the certainty and finality that this solution offers, I can only assume that this ultimate sacrifice will have few takers.

 

Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat...

3D-printable 'Death Pod' for 'stylish' and 'peaceful' suicide premiered at Venice expo

Tired of the old, painful and ugly suicide methods? Now you can have a "peaceful, elective and lawful death" at the press of a button with Sarco, a suicide pod – and it even comes with a built-in eco-friendly coffin.

Alongside halls filled with abstract art and video installations, browsers at the 58th Venice art Biennale can now get a sneak peak at "Sarco" – short for sarcophagus, – a sleek, portable and 3D printable machine that could help bring suicide into the 21st century.  ...

"This is the most important day of your life, the day you die. It is something not to be hidden, it should be eloquent and beautiful."

... Sarco's main features were first advertised in 2017, and include an unspecified electronic questionnaire to make sure you're sane enough to decide to die. After locking yourself inside and passing the test, you get the code to start the euthanasia process. Enter it, and Sarco starts pumping nitrogen to replace the oxygen in the pod, producing a slight "tipsy" feeling before you nod off for good.

As an added bonus, the transparent lid allows you to die somewhere with a view.

"You can tow it off and have it overlooking the Alps or the lakes. When you're ready you say goodbye, use the code to get in, pull down the canopy, press a button and you die in a few minutes. It's a very peaceful death," Nitschke explained.  ...

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

17 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

 

Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat...

3D-printable 'Death Pod' for 'stylish' and 'peaceful' suicide premiered at Venice expo

Tired of the old, painful and ugly suicide methods? Now you can have a "peaceful, elective and lawful death" at the press of a button with Sarco, a suicide pod – and it even comes with a built-in eco-friendly coffin.

Alongside halls filled with abstract art and video installations, browsers at the 58th Venice art Biennale can now get a sneak peak at "Sarco" – short for sarcophagus, – a sleek, portable and 3D printable machine that could help bring suicide into the 21st century.  ...

"This is the most important day of your life, the day you die. It is something not to be hidden, it should be eloquent and beautiful."

... Sarco's main features were first advertised in 2017, and include an unspecified electronic questionnaire to make sure you're sane enough to decide to die. After locking yourself inside and passing the test, you get the code to start the euthanasia process. Enter it, and Sarco starts pumping nitrogen to replace the oxygen in the pod, producing a slight "tipsy" feeling before you nod off for good.

 As an added bonus, the transparent lid allows you to die somewhere with a view.

"You can tow it off and have it overlooking the Alps or the lakes. When you're ready you say goodbye, use the code to get in, pull down the canopy, press a button and you die in a few minutes. It's a very peaceful death," Nitschke explained.  ...

Sadly, all the global warming nuts will fail the sanity test. 

[Wallace907 + 3]

On 5/22/2019 at 7:32 PM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I think they would have tried that while Obama was president, he being a spineless, academic dimwit who thought he could make friends.  Trump, on the other hand, is a businessman.  Trump will see the countries of that region as managers of the region's oil business - and he'll hold them accountable for their results.  I.e. Trump won't care who disrupts shipping; the second it's disrupted, he'll fire the managers.  These countries' mad scrambles to ensure peace is their acknowledgement of Trump's orders.

There' already been a precedent for this: leading up to the 2018 election, Trump called for lower oil prices.  Lip service was paid, but the prices didn't come down.  Thus, Trump tanked oil prices, costing the responsible parties a lot of money.  That was their lesson in how this works, and I suspect they learned it. 

I'm sure that's exactly what he'd want his supporters to believe. I'm probably a lot more cynical.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

23 hours ago, Wallace907 said:

I'm sure that's exactly what he'd want his supporters to believe. I'm probably a lot more cynical.

I could be wrong.  How do you see it? 

[Wallace907 + 3]

On 5/27/2019 at 8:21 AM, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I could be wrong.  How do you see it? 

It's a lot of conjecture so I won't claim to have any superior ideas. Having said that, I think Trump is complying with the hawkish advice of the B team. I don't think they are motivated by lower oil prices- quite the opposite in my opinion. Iran seems to be getting pigeon-holed to act out on their empty threats of the past.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

8 hours ago, Wallace907 said:

Iran seems to be getting pigeon-holed to act out on their empty threats of the past.

Are they getting pigeon-holed to act out, or is their bluff being called?  In the past, they've bloviated freely, allowing them to influence world politics via the media.  Trump now has an opportunity to squelch that.  By forcing them to do nothing in the face of blatant American aggression, he's establishing a new normal: Middle Eastern bloviating is not to be taken seriously.  And if they're stupid enough to pick a fight, the US can deal with them in a permanent way. 

For the first time since Bush Sr, the US has an adult in charge - and he's not taking any crap. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

10 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

For the first time since Bush Sr, the US has an adult in charge

I am not sure adult is the best choice of words... 

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

4 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I am not sure adult is the best choice of words... 

It certainly is.  The average IQ is 100, and half the population is below that.  Trump - like every other politician - knows this and adjusts to it.  His behavior differs from other politicians for three reasons:
1)  He's a businessman.  He knows appeasing people is a fool's errand and doesn't waste time on it.
2)  He's independently wealthy.  He need not resort to corruption to earn his fortune. 
3)  He's extremely good at showmanship.  If other politicians attempted the level of energy & rhetoric Trump displays, they'd inevitably do something stupid, ending their careers.  Trump is good enough to dance on the edge of that cliff without falling off. 

I'd write a novel on Trump's persuasive skill, but it's already been done.

I expect the average person to be fooled by Trump.  What surprises me is how many of the intelligentsia think he's an immature fool.  Does he make mistakes?  Certainly.  Does that detract from his incredible skill as a politician and chief executive?  Not at all.  Here we have a man who has maintained a business empire, won the most ruthlessly competitive political competition in the world, and proceeded to largely accomplish what he said he'd accomplish despite having zero political experience.  In the face of that, allegedly intelligent people deny his competence.  If I've learned anything from this presidency, it's that a large fraction of "intelligent", credentialed people deserve no respect and should be ignored. 

How did they come to this state though?  They're gullible and weak.  <mild sarcasm> Their belief that Trump is the Great Satan was formulated by the Church of Leftism and handed down by the high priests of media. <\mild sarcasm>  Having accepted this idea uncritically, "intelligent" people can't stomach the idea that he might be competent.  It's too much for their fragile emotions, so they live in denial, grasping at the slightest indications that Trump might have made a mistake.  It's pathetic for "educated" people to behave in such a manner. 

Of course, some of these people maintain the facade that Trump is bad because their fortunes rely on it.  When I see a businessman espousing such ideas, I recognize that they're probably priests of Leftism, guiding their flocks to achieve greater profits. 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

6 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Here we have a man who has maintained a business empire,

His six corporate bankruptcies are fine, because you can always start another business. It's much harder to restart a country, or the world, when you fail.

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 5/22/2019 at 8:13 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

Oddly enough, this morning I submitted a job application for a 1 year contract (extendable) for an oil & gas project in Iraq;  the gig has an urgent requirement to mobilize in less than 1 month.

Good luck.

My uncle was a petroleum engineer and took a job in Iran a long time ago.  Unfortunately, he is also fond of stiff drink and got caught with wine making supplies (not even any alcohol) and was thrown in jail and tortured* before being released and running back to Canada (no charges).

* primarily sleep deprivation using random loud noises and bright lights.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

31 minutes ago, Enthalpic said:

Good luck.

My uncle was a petroleum engineer and took a job in Iran a long time ago.  Unfortunately, he is also fond of stiff drink and got caught with wine making supplies (not even any alcohol) and was thrown in jail and tortured* before being released and running back to Canada (no charges).

* primarily sleep deprivation using random loud noises and bright lights.

Thanks.

Since I'm a U.S. citizen I cannot work in Iran oil & gas.  This is for Iraq oil & gas, but it looks like nothing will happen with this gig.  They apparently prefer local / regional staff.

[James Regan + 1,776]

Can they close the Straights of Hormuz has come up various times in the posts above, do they need to close the Straights is the point. All previous flare ups have closed or restricted the Straights to oil traffic, who would insure any tanker going through if there were incidents or ongoing military action, in reality it’s been closed quite a few times.

1984 Tanker War - Kharg Island

1988 Operation Preying Mantis

1987 Downing of Iran Air 655

2007 Collision of USS Newport News and a Tanker

2008 US - Iranian Navel Dispute

2008 Operation Brimstone 

2011 US Tensions between Iran

2015 Iranian seizure of a Maersk Vessel

2018 US Sanctions Threats

2019  Current Situation 

All of these incidents in some form have closed or restricted the Straights of Hormuz. 

Full Closure will cause mayhem and will probably bring the next gulf war IMO

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

11 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Thanks.

Since I'm a U.S. citizen I cannot work in Iran oil & gas.  This is for Iraq oil & gas, but it looks like nothing will happen with this gig.  They apparently prefer local / regional staff.

You are probably better off not going there, the security and safety situation is terrible and will get worse.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

22 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

His six corporate bankruptcies are fine, because you can always start another business. It's much harder to restart a country, or the world, when you fail. 

Ah, yes.  The "Trump must be a bad businessman because he declared bankruptcy" argument.  This isn't the most ignorant thing I've heard, but it's close.  Leftists should investigate three points before using this:
1)  You're using the wrong metric.  Most businesses go bankrupt, and most businessmen suffer multiple bankruptcies during their careers.  That's the nature of the game.  Succeeding in any venture is an accomplishment.  For someone like Trump who has created dozens of businesses, the important metric is the success to failure ratio - where success is defined as a business ever having earned money. 
2)  Trump declared bankruptcy during an extremely difficult period when most/all people in his business were struggling.  This had more to do with changing laws than with his business acumen.  Before passing judgement, we would need to compare the specifics of his business to the specifics of similar businesses. 
3)  Bankruptcy can be a legitimate business strategy.  A company might declare bankruptcy not because the situation is hopeless, but because it's the most profitable legal option available.  We must know the specifics of a business and bankruptcy law before we could pass judgement. 

I'll never argue that Trump is perfect, but there's a mountain of evidence suggesting that he's both intelligent and skilled.  I would offer this piece of advice to the leftists who continue to underestimate him:

"It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
--- ???

 

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

2 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Ah, yes.  The "Trump must be a bad businessman because he declared bankruptcy" argument.  This isn't the most ignorant thing I've heard, but it's close.  Leftists should investigate three points before using this:
1)  You're using the wrong metric.  Most businesses go bankrupt, and most businessmen suffer multiple bankruptcies during their careers.  That's the nature of the game.  Succeeding in any venture is an accomplishment.  For someone like Trump who has created dozens of businesses, the important metric is the success to failure ratio - where success is defined as a business ever having earned money. 
2)  Trump declared bankruptcy during an extremely difficult period when most/all people in his business were struggling.  This had more to do with changing laws than with his business acumen.  Before passing judgement, we would need to compare the specifics of his business to the specifics of similar businesses. 
3)  Bankruptcy can be a legitimate business strategy.  A company might declare bankruptcy not because the situation is hopeless, but because it's the most profitable legal option available.  We must know the specifics of a business and bankruptcy law before we could pass judgement. 

I'll never argue that Trump is perfect, but there's a mountain of evidence suggesting that he's both intelligent and skilled.  I would offer this piece of advice to the leftists who continue to underestimate him:

"It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
--- ???

 

I literally wrote it's fine to bankrupt business...  You can and should take risks in business, especially when you are risking other peoples money.

Countries are not businesses.

[James Regan + 1,776]

15 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

Ah, yes.  The "Trump must be a bad businessman because he declared bankruptcy" argument.  This isn't the most ignorant thing I've heard, but it's close.  Leftists should investigate three points before using this:
1)  You're using the wrong metric.  Most businesses go bankrupt, and most businessmen suffer multiple bankruptcies during their careers.  That's the nature of the game.  Succeeding in any venture is an accomplishment.  For someone like Trump who has created dozens of businesses, the important metric is the success to failure ratio - where success is defined as a business ever having earned money. 
2)  Trump declared bankruptcy during an extremely difficult period when most/all people in his business were struggling.  This had more to do with changing laws than with his business acumen.  Before passing judgement, we would need to compare the specifics of his business to the specifics of similar businesses. 
3)  Bankruptcy can be a legitimate business strategy.  A company might declare bankruptcy not because the situation is hopeless, but because it's the most profitable legal option available.  We must know the specifics of a business and bankruptcy law before we could pass judgement. 

I'll never argue that Trump is perfect, but there's a mountain of evidence suggesting that he's both intelligent and skilled.  I would offer this piece of advice to the leftists who continue to underestimate him:

"It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
--- ???

 

"It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."

👏👏 My Dad always told me its better to be a silent idiot than a loud fool....

[RuudinFrance + 25]

On 5/23/2019 at 8:08 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

 

 

Hey Rocky, watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat...

3D-printable 'Death Pod' for 'stylish' and 'peaceful' suicide premiered at Venice expo

Tired of the old, painful and ugly suicide methods? Now you can have a "peaceful, elective and lawful death" at the press of a button with Sarco, a suicide pod – and it even comes with a built-in eco-friendly coffin.

Alongside halls filled with abstract art and video installations, browsers at the 58th Venice art Biennale can now get a sneak peak at "Sarco" – short for sarcophagus, – a sleek, portable and 3D printable machine that could help bring suicide into the 21st century.  ...

"This is the most important day of your life, the day you die. It is something not to be hidden, it should be eloquent and beautiful."

... Sarco's main features were first advertised in 2017, and include an unspecified electronic questionnaire to make sure you're sane enough to decide to die. After locking yourself inside and passing the test, you get the code to start the euthanasia process. Enter it, and Sarco starts pumping nitrogen to replace the oxygen in the pod, producing a slight "tipsy" feeling before you nod off for good.

As an added bonus, the transparent lid allows you to die somewhere with a view.

"You can tow it off and have it overlooking the Alps or the lakes. When you're ready you say goodbye, use the code to get in, pull down the canopy, press a button and you die in a few minutes. It's a very peaceful death," Nitschke explained.  ...

Hi Tom,

I like the rabbit, but what's the hat? RT as in Russia Today?

Being a happy "Exit" member and having access to the "Peaceful pill handbook" as well as the "Exit" fora, it's comforting to know that there are many peaceful ways with little stress to "exit" when one wants to. No need for any third person(s) to help one decide, or forbid one to do so as certain inhumane rules (laws) have not been complied with. I would believe that especially Americans would appreciate the possibility to even do the ultimate under their own direction (in most states, the law prohibits this). Maybe people in the USA would apply a fire arm, I prefer some friendlier and more secure way when I decide it's time to go.

There will be little use for the Sarco, there are numerous easier and less costly ways for people who do not want to make a spectacle of themselves. 

We are members of a Dutch cooperation (22000 paying members) as well and work for a legal way to purchase life ending chemicals for all. It's our idea that all people have a right to exit peacefully when they themselves feel it's time to go.

Have fun.

 

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, RuudinFrance said:

Hi Tom,

I like the rabbit, but what's the hat? RT as in Russia Today?

It's a line from the old Rocky & Bullwinkle show

https://youtu.be/kx3sOqW5zj4