Is $60/Bbl WTI still considered a break even for Shale Oil

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Correct, that is more than I am interested in reading.  How about a single link with data on the total amount of natural gas consumed by road vehicles of any type Worldwide for any of the past 5 years.  That is all I am interested in.  My guess is it is about 1% or less than the amount of barrels of oil equivalent consumed in the form of gasoline (petrol) and or diesel.

A single link please.

Get it yourself Coyne. What matters is how much COULD be used if people were wiser. You do not qualify. There are already twice as many natural gas vehicles as electric vehicles, which often rely on coal to produce the electricity. You are not interested in learning about the potential. Sorry I wasted my time with you. 

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

Get it yourself Coyne. What matters is how much COULD be used if people were wiser. You do not qualify. There are already twice as many natural gas vehicles as electric vehicles, which often rely on coal to produce the electricity. You are not interested in learning about the potential. Sorry I wasted my time with you. 

Again for Brasil it’s about 6.1 Billion Cubic Meters in 2018 

https://www.terra.com.br/economia/consumo-de-gnv-no-brasil-deve-crescer-12-em-2018-preve-abegas,4a17235c786760bd1913805e68da86c5fcq4y3dd.html

@D Coyne Fortunately I’m a fluent português speaker This will be a bit harder to teach you, hope this helps👍🏻👍🏻🇧🇷👍🏻👍🏻

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Again for Brasil it’s about 6.1 Billion Cubic Meters in 2018 

https://www.terra.com.br/economia/consumo-de-gnv-no-brasil-deve-crescer-12-em-2018-preve-abegas,4a17235c786760bd1913805e68da86c5fcq4y3dd.html

@D Coyne Fortunately I’m a fluent português speaker This will be a bit harder to teach you, hope this helps👍🏻👍🏻🇧🇷👍🏻👍🏻

Good post. It translated well!

[Auson + 123]

4 hours ago, James Regan said:

Again for Brasil it’s about 6.1 Billion Cubic Meters in 2018 

https://www.terra.com.br/economia/consumo-de-gnv-no-brasil-deve-crescer-12-em-2018-preve-abegas,4a17235c786760bd1913805e68da86c5fcq4y3dd.html

@D Coyne Fortunately I’m a fluent português speaker This will be a bit harder to teach you, hope this helps👍🏻👍🏻🇧🇷👍🏻👍🏻

Muito bom, I remember the GNV used to be about half the price of gasoline last time I was in Brasil seems like a no brainer !

[D Coyne + 305]

20 hours ago, James Regan said:

6.1 Billion Cubic Meters in 2018

Link to data?  Wow, if 2017 was similar to 2018, it would be 15.7% of Brazilian natural gas consumption.  That would be about 35 million barrels of oil equivalent.  Total Brazilian oil consumption in 2017 was about 994 million barrels of oil equivalent, so this would be about 3.4% of oil consumption (I assume most of the oil consumed is for transport by land, water or air).

Any numbers for the World?

[D Coyne + 305]

19 hours ago, James Regan said:

Again for Brasil it’s about 6.1 Billion Cubic Meters in 2018 

https://www.terra.com.br/economia/consumo-de-gnv-no-brasil-deve-crescer-12-em-2018-preve-abegas,4a17235c786760bd1913805e68da86c5fcq4y3dd.html

@D Coyne Fortunately I’m a fluent português speaker This will be a bit harder to teach you, hope this helps👍🏻👍🏻🇧🇷👍🏻👍🏻

James,

I think it says 6 million cubic meters per day so that would in fact be 2.2 BCM per year for 2018, so about 13 Mboe per year. Probably a more realistic estimate for oil use for transport would be about 85% of total oil used and maybe 75% for land transport only, so about 746 Mboe per year used by Brazil for land transport of 994 Mboe/year total oil consumed (2017 data from BP) or about 1.7%.  Pretty impressive.

Thank you for the link.

Edited June 4, 2019 by D Coyne

[D Coyne + 305]

20 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Get it yourself Coyne. What matters is how much COULD be used if people were wiser. You do not qualify. There are already twice as many natural gas vehicles as electric vehicles, which often rely on coal to produce the electricity. You are not interested in learning about the potential. Sorry I wasted my time with you. 

My apologies.

You seem to be the cheerleader.  I am sorry you wasted your time as well.

[James Regan + 1,776]

4 hours ago, D Coyne said:

James,

I think it says 6 million cubic meters per day so that would in fact be 2.2 BCM per year for 2018, so about 13 Mboe per year. Probably a more realistic estimate for oil use for transport would be about 85% of total oil used and maybe 75% for land transport only, so about 746 Mboe per year used by Brazil for land transport of 994 Mboe/year total oil consumed (2017 data from BP) or about 1.7%.  Pretty impressive.

Thank you for the link.

Your correct Millions not billions , maybe I’m not so fluent 😂 👏👏👍🏻

[D Coyne + 305]

On 6/3/2019 at 2:16 PM, ronwagn said:

Get it yourself Coyne. What matters is how much COULD be used if people were wiser. You do not qualify. There are already twice as many natural gas vehicles as electric vehicles, which often rely on coal to produce the electricity. You are not interested in learning about the potential. Sorry I wasted my time with you. 

Ronwagn,

 

I also wonder if there would be adequate natural gas resources.  For example if half of the road transport oil use was replaced with natural gas (using 2017 data from BP) where I assume 75% of oil use is for road transport, then 55% of all 2017 natural gas production would have been required if we assume the efficiency of the NG vehicle is the same as liquid fuel.

Natural gas will deplete just as oil will and methane hydrates may be very expensive, so far no commercial output from methane hydrates and though this might be possible is by no means assured. You are correct that coal produces much of the electricity used for BEVs, though coal is rapidly being replaced by natural gas, solar, and wind power.  Combined cycle electricity production is very efficient and possibly more efficient in combination with a battery electric vehicle (BEV) than direct use in a vehicle where efficiency is probably about 32% (assuming it is similar to liquid fuel).

It might work as a bridge fuel, but I expect natural gas output will peak around 2035, so alternatives will need to be found.  Electric vehicles could be powered by solar, wind and nuclear power, trains and public transit in densely populated areas may be a more efficient option.

I could not find data on World use for natural gas in CNG vehicles.  

Edited June 4, 2019 by D Coyne

[James Regan + 1,776]

This fits nicely into the thread of the original post.

The Time is Now to Begin an Oil Investment

Investing in oil wells and an investment in oil is typically offered through small and mid-size oil companies directly or through small brokers. Because of the riskier nature of the investment, accredited investors are preferred by most oil companies. Essentially an accredited investor has a net worth of one million dollars or has made $200,000 or more in the past three years. Oil investments should be made with those with substantive income and sufficient financial sophistication.

http://www.oilscams.org/

🤔🤔🤔 I think it’s all in the name.

 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Ronwagn,

 

I also wonder if there would be adequate natural gas resources.  For example if half of the road transport oil use was replaced with natural gas (using 2017 data from BP) where I assume 75% of oil use is for road transport, then 55% of all 2017 natural gas production would have been required if we assume the efficiency of the NG vehicle is the same as liquid fuel.

Natural gas will deplete just as oil will and methane hydrates may be very expensive, so far no commercial output from methane hydrates and though this might be possible is by no means assured. You are correct that coal produces much of the electricity used for BEVs, though coal is rapidly being replaced by natural gas, solar, and wind power.  Combined cycle electricity production is very efficient and possibly more efficient in combination with a battery electric vehicle (BEV) than direct use in a vehicle where efficiency is probably about 32% (assuming it is similar to liquid fuel).

It might work as a bridge fuel, but I expect natural gas output will peak around 2035, so alternatives will need to be found.  Electric vehicles could be powered by solar, wind and nuclear power, trains and public transit in densely populated areas may be a more efficient option.

I could not find data on World use for natural gas in CNG vehicles.  

Estimates state up to 300 years of natural gas is available without methane hydrates and not figuring in biogas. That probably does not figure natural gas only being used. You have to figure ships, locomotives, trucking, automobiles, electric generation, industries,  etc. and guess what the overall fuel mix would be. It is an impossible task. One thing for sure is that electric cars are still overpriced and need to have electricity generated somehow. Nobody knows what future technology will offer. 

My prediction is that natural gas will prove to be indispensable if we want cleaner air and affordable prices for electricity. It is not essential as road fuel as long as most choose to use dirtier, more expensive petroleum. It is easier to fill up with liquid fuel. Natural gas can also be made into methanol or gasoline but that is a waste IMHO. Note that coal is having a resurgence in growth due to low cost and local availability in Asia. I just posted in mining on that. Natural gas is the obvious replacement logically IMHO. 

Spending trillions trying to go with renewables just will not work in the real world. Joe Biden would disagree. 

https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Energy/Gas/Reserves-of-natural-gas

Map https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Energy/Gas/Reserves-of-natural-gas?type=maps

 

Edited June 5, 2019 by ronwagn
reference

[James Regan + 1,776]

@ronwagn Quoted - “Spending trillions trying to go with renewables just will not work in the real world. Joe Biden would disagree. “

I think this is one of the best single quotes regarding the debate of the thread as it went from Shale breakeven to renewables and so on, the happy medium will be diversity and hybrids of CARbon  fuels which will power combustion engines with Electric cell backups, we are not ready to go full Electric that’s a fact , maybe some niche and boutique style countries or cities are ready but on a world wide basis we are a long way off being able to go full on with only EV. IMO

[nathan_john + 26]

19 hours ago, D Coyne said:

For example if half of the road transport oil use was replaced with natural gas (using 2017 data from BP) where I assume 75% of oil use is for road transport, then 55% of all 2017 natural gas production would have been required if we assume the efficiency of the NG vehicle is the same as liquid fuel. Natural gas will deplete just as oil

 

Not sure how you're defining "road transport", but the BP energy outlook has the percentages you are looking for. Globally in 2020 about 60% of liquids demand is transportation, 20% cars, 25% trucks, 15% non-road. This shows oil demand will still be there even with full adoption of EVs or nat gas vehicles. 

Plenty of nat gas out there to meet the demand as much as they're flaring in the Permian. Also in the northeast they just have to open up the tap on the Marcellus shale but it's stuck because they can't get a pipeline built. I don't see oil or nat gas depleting any time soon. I think if there were evidence of this then prices would be through the roof. Reserves are not a good indicator because the SEC only allows oil companies to report 5 years of reserves. 

Many cities have transitioned to using nat gas for buses, garbage trucks, etc. but this is because city fleets can all fill up at a central hub. Boone Pickens says in his book The First Billion is the Hardest, that switching one garbage truck over to nat gas is the carbon emission equivalent of taking 300 cars off the road per year. I'd prefer us to build out the infrastructure for nat gas before EVs but unfortunately I don't see that happening because of public perception. I guess I'm okay with EV infrastructure as long as we don't power it with coal, and that we don't go insane and try to power it all with renewables right away. Long term, maybe, but not right away, barring any major technology breakthrough.

 

Edited June 5, 2019 by nathan_john

[ronwagn + 6,290]

That is a very helpful graph. It brings to mind the potential decrease in oil prices if natural gas gained a larger role in these categories. My interest is in lower fuel prices and cleaner air, but I may be in the minority on this forum. I do realize that profits are not a bad thing. I just favor natural gas. I favor gradual change over decades. 

[nathan_john + 26]

@ronwagn That graph came from the BP energy outlook. Both BP and Exxon update the outlook yearly. OPEC also has one specifically for oil as well. Highly recommended for anyone and everyone. Great education material. Wish they taught it in schools. 

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/energy-and-environment/energy-resources/outlook-for-energy

https://woo.opec.org/

 

[D Coyne + 305]

On 6/5/2019 at 1:18 AM, ronwagn said:

Estimates state up to 300 years of natural gas is available without methane hydrates and not figuring in biogas. That probably does not figure natural gas only being used. You have to figure ships, locomotives, trucking, automobiles, electric generation, industries,  etc. and guess what the overall fuel mix would be. It is an impossible task. One thing for sure is that electric cars are still overpriced and need to have electricity generated somehow. Nobody knows what future technology will offer. 

My prediction is that natural gas will prove to be indispensable if we want cleaner air and affordable prices for electricity. It is not essential as road fuel as long as most choose to use dirtier, more expensive petroleum. It is easier to fill up with liquid fuel. Natural gas can also be made into methanol or gasoline but that is a waste IMHO. Note that coal is having a resurgence in growth due to low cost and local availability in Asia. I just posted in mining on that. Natural gas is the obvious replacement logically IMHO. 

Spending trillions trying to go with renewables just will not work in the real world. Joe Biden would disagree. 

https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Energy/Gas/Reserves-of-natural-gas

Map https://knoema.com/atlas/topics/Energy/Gas/Reserves-of-natural-gas?type=maps

 

Ronwagn,

In many places (US southwest) solar PV at utility scale is cheaper than natural gas, in other areas (US Great Plains) Wind power is cheaper than Natural Gas and Coal.  The 300 year estimate is likely incorrect, see  Steve Mohr's PhD thesis which can be downloaded at link below.

https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/uon:6530/SOURCE4

and

http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-natural-gas-shock-model/

Peak probably 2030 to 2050 for Natural Gas.  If there is 26,000 TCF of natural gas for URR, about 5000 TCF of cumulative output leaves about 21,000 TCF, peak might occur at 50% so at cumulative output of 13,000 TCF so 8000 TCF more to reach that point which we would arrive at in 60 years, if future natural gas output does not rise any further beyond the 2017 output level.

If we assume natural gas production grows at 2.5% per year after 2017, we reach 13,000 TCF in 2054.

There are some pretty bad estimates out there, not all of them should be believed.

https://www.reference.com/science/long-natural-gas-reserves-last-58df31a5232bd73d

 

[D Coyne + 305]

On 6/5/2019 at 10:45 AM, nathan_john said:

Not sure how you're defining "road transport", but the BP energy outlook has the percentages you are looking for. Globally in 2020 about 60% of liquids demand is transportation, 20% cars, 25% trucks, 15% non-road. This shows oil demand will still be there even with full adoption of EVs or nat gas vehicles. 

Plenty of nat gas out there to meet the demand as much as they're flaring in the Permian. Also in the northeast they just have to open up the tap on the Marcellus shale but it's stuck because they can't get a pipeline built. I don't see oil or nat gas depleting any time soon. I think if there were evidence of this then prices would be through the roof. Reserves are not a good indicator because the SEC only allows oil companies to report 5 years of reserves. 

Many cities have transitioned to using nat gas for buses, garbage trucks, etc. but this is because city fleets can all fill up at a central hub. Boone Pickens says in his book The First Billion is the Hardest, that switching one garbage truck over to nat gas is the carbon emission equivalent of taking 300 cars off the road per year. I'd prefer us to build out the infrastructure for nat gas before EVs but unfortunately I don't see that happening because of public perception. I guess I'm okay with EV infrastructure as long as we don't power it with coal, and that we don't go insane and try to power it all with renewables right away. Long term, maybe, but not right away, barring any major technology breakthrough.

 

Hi Nathan,

I would disagree on liquids, they are likely to peak in the 2025 to 2035 time frame.  Natural gas probably 2035 to 2050 will be the peak.  Yes nobody sees it coming, but almost all increase in World output for the past 5 years has been from tight oil and the resource is far more limited than many seem to think.  Tight oil will likely peak in 2025.

[James Regan + 1,776]

45 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Hi Nathan,

I would disagree on liquids, they are likely to peak in the 2025 to 2035 time frame.  Natural gas probably 2035 to 2050 will be the peak.  Yes nobody sees it coming, but almost all increase in World output for the past 5 years has been from tight oil and the resource is far more limited than many seem to think.  Tight oil will likely peak in 2025.

Using the data above how many wells will need to be drilled using the production decline of typical TIght Wells declining production rates of 74, 47 & 19% for the first three years respectively?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,192]

3 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Hi Nathan,

I would disagree on liquids, they are likely to peak in the 2025 to 2035 time frame.  Natural gas probably 2035 to 2050 will be the peak.  Yes nobody sees it coming, but almost all increase in World output for the past 5 years has been from tight oil and the resource is far more limited than many seem to think. 

Actually it is far greater as the expected recovery rate assumed was vastly lower by several HUNDRED percent than what is actually being obtained and the whole passel of techniques are still being discovered.  Take the Bakken for instance.  There is ~350 Billion barrels of oil in the formation and way back in 2007 timeframe it was stated as ~10% recovery.  Well, that is off by well over 200% currently and the percentage keeps increasing every year so...   Want another?  Tar sands: Assumed ~7% recovery and it currently sits at well over 20% for even the worse patch and several are hitting over 30% and moving ever upwards. 

Yea yea, tar sands are different than shale, but it proves a point.  Everyone assumed that unconventional had piss poor recovery rates.  Well initially they were correct.  Current production on the other hand is 100% proving them and you wrong. 

PS: keep your eye on CO2 replacement for water during FRACKING increasing reservoir capture another 20%+++  See thread on this forum

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Ronwagn,

In many places (US southwest) solar PV at utility scale is cheaper than natural gas, in other areas (US Great Plains) Wind power is cheaper than Natural Gas and Coal.  The 300 year estimate is likely incorrect, see  Steve Mohr's PhD thesis which can be downloaded at link below.

https://ogma.newcastle.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/uon:6530/SOURCE4

and

http://peakoilbarrel.com/world-natural-gas-shock-model/

Peak probably 2030 to 2050 for Natural Gas.  If there is 26,000 TCF of natural gas for URR, about 5000 TCF of cumulative output leaves about 21,000 TCF, peak might occur at 50% so at cumulative output of 13,000 TCF so 8000 TCF more to reach that point which we would arrive at in 60 years, if future natural gas output does not rise any further beyond the 2017 output level.

If we assume natural gas production grows at 2.5% per year after 2017, we reach 13,000 TCF in 2054.

There are some pretty bad estimates out there, not all of them should be believed.

https://www.reference.com/science/long-natural-gas-reserves-last-58df31a5232bd73d

 

I have to disagree with all of your resources. They seem very old and very conservative. They do not consider many new offshore natural gas finds and areas that have not even been touched yet for natural gas. Nor do they consider biogas.  I appreciate your opinion and outlook. I definitely disagree that solar or wind can really compete with CNG or LNG. I do think they have a good foothold due to green support they have been given. I think that natural gas will be shown to be the best answer to the need for clean energy along with renewables which definitely are not the best answer to massive energy needs worldwide. Do not dismiss methane hydrates either.  I think that the world will come to see my point of view. You are, of course, very welcome to yours. We can both enjoy watching what happens in the future of energy. One thing is for sure, there is no worldwide energy crisis as was portrayed just nine short years ago. 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Chinas-Demand-For-Gas-Almost-Infinite.html

https://www.lngworldnews.com/south-koreas-2018-lng-imports-hit-record-44-million-tonnes/

https://www.ogj.com/articles/print/volume-98/issue-25/special-report/indian-lng-projects-boom-in-full-swing.html

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Japan-Moves-To-Take-Over-The-Worlds-Largest-LNG-Market.html

 

[Mehrdad Nematollahi + 4]

On 5/23/2019 at 5:51 PM, Oil_Engineer said:

That's right.  With the current level of global instability, especially in oil producing regions, oil should be up, but it is trending down.

 

Crude stockpiles are up, which will apply downward pressure.  Oil demand growth has been revised recently, so optimism is down as well.

Winter is over in the northern hemisphere, so natural gas demand will fall off as well.

Global Instability !  That is right , Specially  when the US Goverment pushes sanctions in Iran , then we have a supply shortage and at the same time  storage of oil in supertankers in the ocean  by  Iran  and after for example one month then a waiver comes  , so all the storage in the ocean  will be poured into the market .it brings down the price  for ten dollars !

That is why the market is crazy !

I think the price in the range 60- 70 USD will be set for the coming year.

[Mike Shellman + 548]

8 hours ago, Wastral said:

Everyone assumed that unconventional had piss poor recovery rates.

Production rates are increasing in the Bakken because there a lot of wells still being drilled and IP180+ (initial productivity) is much higher. So is ensuing decline and it is unclear at this point if longer laterals and bigger frac's are leading to higher, realistic, EURs. Gas to oil ratios are going thru the roof, as is the flaring of the stuff, and rising GOR is NOT good. I note also that the gravity of oil (condensate) is going sky high along with GOR. Initial recovery rates of OOIP in the Bakken were originally 3-4%. All this is googable, or better yet, use shaleprofile.com in the Bakken. I might be missing something so if you can lead me to a link showing where recovery of OOIP has (not might) improved by 200% of 10% I'd sure appreciate it. 

[Falcon + 222]

On 5/26/2019 at 6:54 AM, James Regan said:

I think there is some truth that we have definitely hit the peak. In my lifetime in the E&P sector working all corners of the globe for US Companies with US Hardware we would constantly ask the question WTF are we doing here, be it deepest darkest Africa, Arctic East, Arctic West, Baku or Patagonia. The common denominator was the fact we were working for US IOCs and the reason was that in order to protect the USAs regional oil reserves for a later date, how much later we did not know “ never in your life time son” I was told, I’m now 52 at 20 you believe anything! So after seeing convoys of VLCCs round tripping from Offshore Angola to Galveston and oil wells being produced at negligent and reckless rates in order to rob as much oil as possible as fast as possible, I have come to the conclusion that we have reached that time and the plan seems to be working that plan to take the worlds oil and then fall back on untapped regional oil (Shale) and try to exact world domination. 

I just thought it would never be in my lifetime.....🤔

Disagree.  Think oil demand is plateauing while supply is increasing. The game is to sell as much of your reserves today at $60 to $70, as opposed to $45 two years from now.  

As for petrochem, recent Chinese capacity buildup has crashed margins in Asia.  China continues to build storage and Petrochem facilities. Petrochem companies have slowed procurement of feedstock. Looks like China aims to dominate them.

Recent traders have gone to Asia to garner interest in US oil.  While they are interested in oil , they are dying to buy US natural gas liquids ETHANE.

Midstream company Enterprise Products is racing to build US ETHANE/ETHALYNE export terminals.  They believe they could ramp to 2 mm bbls/d.  Majority delivered to China.

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Falcon

[James Regan + 1,776]

1 hour ago, Falcon said:

Disagree.  Think oil demand is plateauing will supply is increasing. The game is to sell as much of your rserves today at $60, as opposed to $45 two years from now.  

As for petrochem, recent Chinese capacity buildup has crashed margins. Petrochem companies have slowed procurement of feedstock. Looks like China aims to dominate them.

Recent traders have gone to Asia to garner interest in US oil.  While they are interested in oil , they are dying to buy US natural gas liquids ETHANE.

 

@Falcon After this week of meetings I am happy to agree with you. Based on Capex budgets for E&P in Brasil and Malaysia we will be seeing a high Deepwater rig intake for these regions.

Which gives me confidence that the US Tight Oil will peak sooner than most think.

Fairly loose info but just the high level view shows that big oil is heading back to Deepwater.

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

1 minute ago, James Regan said:

@Falcon After this week of meetings I am happy to agree with you. Based on Capex budgets for E&P in Brasil and Malaysia we will be seeing a high Deepwater rig intake for these regions.

Which gives me confidence that the US Tight Oil will peak sooner than most think.

Fairly loose info but just the high level view shows that big oil is heading back to Deepwater.

Big oil has been in deepwater plus they are also going big into the shale, Shell states that their driving force is shale.

But being diversified is a very good strategy.