Where is oil headed? 45 or 79?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

the way to understand where crude is moving and why is the following.

Fundamentally its over for oil, this awakening started last year when oil hit the 70s, and most analysts said we would hit 90, 150 and 300.

So the move from 76 - 42 was wave 2-3 in the elliot wave theory. The move   from 42 - 68 this year was move 3-4, this includes the move from 50 - 60 earlier in June. Now that 60 - 68 was the top that was the end of wave 4. At this point wave 4 - 5 could be as big as wave 2-3 which was from 76 - 42, so about a 30 point move. So if 68 was the end of wave 4, we should see prices at least at 68 - 30 = 38 and lower. From what I see wave 4 started at 68, took a recess from 50 -60, and is now continuing down toward 38. From that point the Sauds will try very hard to support the prices.

[Osama + 248]

7 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

the way to understand where crude is moving and why is the following.

Fundamentally its over for oil, this awakening started last year when oil hit the 70s, and most analysts said we would hit 90, 150 and 300.

So the move from 76 - 42 was wave 2-3 in the elliot wave theory. The move   from 42 - 68 this year was move 3-4, this includes the move from 50 - 60 earlier in June. Now that 60 - 68 was the top that was the end of wave 4. At this point wave 4 - 5 could be as big as wave 2-3 which was from 76 - 42, so about a 30 point move. So if 68 was the end of wave 4, we should see prices at least at 68 - 30 = 38 and lower. From what I see wave 4 started at 68, took a recess from 50 -60, and is now continuing down toward 38. From that point the Sauds will try very hard to support the prices.

Oil prices took a dive as expected but despite a very little inventory draw creeped up for no apparent reason. 

I am in the selling but prices have moved a dollar up... No problem as I have enough leverage because I shorted few barrels. But I am looking for a prixe to average. That could d be 58?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Like i said 57.5 then back down. Now the news said because there is a trade deal prices will now go up to the 70s.  There is so much glut, and more coming, this year and even more next year, there is no reason why oil should be above 40 this year.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I expect 18 to be hit in the next couple of years after shale production goes through the roof.

I expect 46 to be hit this year.

I expect 38 by 2020.

However the range most of the year will be from 50 - 69.

Edited July 4, 2019 by Top Oil Trader

[Osama + 248]

13 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Like i said 57.5 then back down. Now the news said because there is a trade deal prices will now go up to the 70s.  There is so much glut, and more coming, this year and even more next year, there is no reason why oil should be above 40 this year.

Yes, it just needs another bearish news and it will fall. So far it has been holding 56.70

[ANJAN CHAKRAVARTI 0]

On Monday it should be heading south by close

[ANJAN CHAKRAVARTI 0]

On 7/3/2019 at 11:56 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

the way to understand where crude is moving and why is the following.

Fundamentally its over for oil, this awakening started last year when oil hit the 70s, and most analysts said we would hit 90, 150 and 300.

So the move from 76 - 42 was wave 2-3 in the elliot wave theory. The move   from 42 - 68 this year was move 3-4, this includes the move from 50 - 60 earlier in June. Now that 60 - 68 was the top that was the end of wave 4. At this point wave 4 - 5 could be as big as wave 2-3 which was from 76 - 42, so about a 30 point move. So if 68 was the end of wave 4, we should see prices at least at 68 - 30 = 38 and lower. From what I see wave 4 started at 68, took a recess from 50 -60, and is now continuing down toward 38. From that point the Sauds will try very hard to support the prices.

Very true

[Osama + 248]

13 hours ago, ANJAN CHAKRAVARTI said:

On Monday it should be heading south by close

It should! I hope so.. 

[Osama + 248]

On 7/4/2019 at 6:36 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Like i said 57.5 then back down. Now the news said because there is a trade deal prices will now go up to the 70s.  There is so much glut, and more coming, this year and even more next year, there is no reason why oil should be above 40 this year.

JJ- the recent news regarding Iran has once again kept prices higher. I thought it would fall to 55.50. Hence taken a position in selling. 

Where do you see it now? Still hold your analysis? 

[A/Plague + 50]

2 hours ago, Osama said:

JJ- the recent news regarding Iran has once again kept prices higher. I thought it would fall to 55.50. Hence taken a position in selling. 

Where do you see it now? Still hold your analysis? 

I'm sorry to interfere. but so far the north ... although the goal is close ... but the ass will tear many ...bgggggg

Edited July 8, 2019 by A/Plague

[Osama + 248]

3 hours ago, A/Plague said:

I'm sorry to interfere. but so far the north ... although the goal is close ... but the ass will tear many ...bgggggg

How much? I have holding power. 

[oilexpert.nl + 36]

I agree with JJ's view. Every spike is quickly followed by a drop. Inventory increase, Iran, possible trade deal, it all leads to short lived spikes.

As soon as Iran "issue" has settled the drop will be significant. The global oil demand is weakening and no reason "we" need prices at USd 50/bbl or above. First the market has to rebalance, hence lower prices have to come. Lower prices will reduce production and increase consumption (or store it when prices go south). Short term traders can go for a small long position and hope for more Iranian strong words, others better short for over the next 6 month's. I don't think SA will/can reduce output further as it will hurt them too much financially, and we have seen it 2 years ago. Exactly the same happened and at the end SA let it all go. Logically as production cutbacks do work when inventories are balanced and market has seen the oil prices go down and stabilize. Curtailing production in a oversupplied market does extend the fall, but it costs much more and leaves SA/OPEC + with no ammunition left when it will be successful and badly needed.

Hence I foresee a copy of 2 years ago, prices will not hold.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so the action last couple of days shows that its eventually heading lower. Unless 60 can breaks. Before a massive break down, there has to be a final cleanup of the shorts. So what this means, yes, the chart doesnt look good for bulls at all, but a move to 62 is possible before the major selloff starts. The people who will short this market will be many positions in the billions, they can only short the market if they first raise the hopes of the bulls. So would i short at 58 or 57? no. Would i go long to 62? Well for $4 its not worth the time and effort. But when 62 hits, watch for any hints of a collapse. 

The main indicator will be, is when the analysts and talking heads you see every week, say, "now its a good time to buy since price will now go past 70", that will most likely be the sweet spot. However, for most it will be hard to short at those levels, since on the surface it will look like prices are now headed higher. So the key really is to watch the news that is not told, but is implied..

 

[A/Plague + 50]

in a crowd, you can spit on anyone and he will be an expert in 90% of cases

[A/Plague + 50]

5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so the action last couple of days shows that its eventually heading lower. Unless 60 can breaks. Before a massive break down, there has to be a final cleanup of the shorts. So what this means, yes, the chart doesnt look good for bulls at all, but a move to 62 is possible before the major selloff starts. The people who will short this market will be many positions in the billions, they can only short the market if they first raise the hopes of the bulls. So would i short at 58 or 57? no. Would i go long to 62? Well for $4 its not worth the time and effort. But when 62 hits, watch for any hints of a collapse. 

The main indicator will be, is when the analysts and talking heads you see every week, say, "now its a good time to buy since price will now go past 70", that will most likely be the sweet spot. However, for most it will be hard to short at those levels, since on the surface it will look like prices are now headed higher. So the key really is to watch the news that is not told, but is implied..

 

$😎4 is nothing for you? recently you 20 cents happy ...

Edited July 9, 2019 by A/Plague

[Osama + 248]

Well I was in at 57.50.. Short. But for now I am holding. Only 200 barrels so far. 

If it goes beyond 60...will add more.. Otherwise... Hold. 

 

I would agree that there is no reason for oil to remain bullish. 

[oilexpert.nl + 36]

Trading a long position at 60-62 for July together with more money in short for July/August at 56 seems to be a right approach. This as IF Iran blocks shipping lane prices will soar well above 65 I believe. However this situation will be short-lived as too much countries will put pressure on Iran.

Every spike can be used to build your total short volume, step by step. See todays BASF and other financial results in the chemical industry, it simply means that their plastics, SBR's, PET and other naphtha derivatives are less in demand and therefore total oil demand is and will be lower. Less Naphtha needed = less oil refinery throughput. Go short coming months and keep a small long position in the very short term to benefit from a unexpected Iranian move. It will reduce your profit when the market comes down now, but is worth it, I think.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

as expected no  surprises here. 60 next then 62.5 before the start of massive liquidations. 

Glut is all over in every country now, it costs the sauds about $3 to $6 to produce a barrel. Others its costs more than $50, everyone is producing shale now, on ever corner property available, just drive through Dallas, Odessa, whatever. Shale production is getting more efficient by the month.  At 62.5 watch for any hints of liquidations.

[Osama + 248]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

as expected no  surprises here. 60 next then 62.5 before the start of massive liquidations. 

Glut is all over in every country now, it costs the sauds about $3 to $6 to produce a barrel. Others its costs more than $50, everyone is producing shale now, on ever corner property available, just drive through Dallas, Odessa, whatever. Shale production is getting more efficient by the month.  At 62.5 watch for any hints of liquidations.

I hope the liquidations begin by 60.30. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

no. like i said when we hit 58. to short at 58 not worth it, sine it would need first to hit 62. So that is the key level. and to go long for 4 bucks not worth it. since it is in a short accumulation.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so when it goes to 62. 62.5 watch for hints of liquidation.

[A/Plague + 50]

11 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so when it goes to 62. 62.5 watch for hints of liquidation.

 

13 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

as expected no  surprises here. 60 next then 62.5 before the start of massive liquidations. 

Glut is all over in every country now, it costs the sauds about $3 to $6 to produce a barrel. Others its costs more than $50, everyone is producing shale now, on ever corner property available, just drive through Dallas, Odessa, whatever. Shale production is getting more efficient by the month.  At 62.5 watch for any hints of liquidations.

liquidation? elimination of what? donkeys on the market? what have to do with shale oil in Odessa ok ... then try to explain the number 66.20 .... diarrhea with the king of saudi arabia?

[Osama + 248]

2 hours ago, A/Plague said:

 

liquidation? elimination of what? donkeys on the market? what have to do with shale oil in Odessa ok ... then try to explain the number 66.20 .... diarrhea with the king of saudi arabia?

66.20! I'll be broke! 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-This-Oil-Rally-Wont-Last.html 

This guy took the words out of my mouth, exactly what i have been saying the last 2 weeks.

 

 

Edited July 12, 2019 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

The only reason why  crude is going up is again due to the potential escalation in Iran. This is what i have been saying since oil hit 51. The only thing that could save oil from going to 46 was the potential for war. Indeed that is what spiked prices from 50.5 - 53 first. It was not an increase in demand. Since there still is a potential for war, this is why oil is artificially climbing. If war breaks out then 62.5 wont be the ceiling, before the big dump. 

Like i said smart money (the fundamentalists) know crude should be heading down, but the super smart are waiting for the neocons (kristal, bolton, pompeo and others, to relax before they take massive short positions. This will happen sometime after 62, assuming the escalation with Iran is officially over, or close to being called of.