Bloomberg Opinion : "OPEC and Russia Best Not to Poke the SHALE BEAR"

[Falcon + 222]

(Bloomberg Opinion) --  "Here’s one underreported factor that may explain Russian and Saudi Arabian willingness to turn their backs on almost 18 months of Opec oil supply cuts — the spread between Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate has reached its widest level in three years:

The simple reason for this is that the shale oil boom has left crude sloshing around the U.S., resulting in a local oversupply. While Brent prices have risen some 14 percent over the past three months, WTI is up just 7.5 percent and Midland crude — the version of WTI priced in the booming Permian basin rather than the benchmark delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma — is down 4.8 percent."

 

https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/column_opec_and_russia_best_not_poke_the_shale_oil_bear-29-may-2018-155759-article/    

"The growing spreads now suggest that supply is pushing up against a different sort of bottleneck: a shortage of pipeline capacity between Midland and Cushing, and then a further shortage of pipeline and port capacity to get U.S. crude onto a hungry global market."

Orbital Insight latest World Inventory survey shows inventory up more this month.  OPEC Countries, China, and US all up.  Only lower is Europe which is expected with economic slowdown and Russian pipeline problem.

The current bottlenecks mentioned in Bloomberg article sighting pipeline and export capacity could be solved faster than thought.  Trump recently signed an executive order to speed up the approval process.  The 3 new Permian to Gulf pipelines will be completed in the next 4 top 8 months.  I've read reports that say U.S. has current capacity to export 5 mm bbls/day.  I think that's a bit ambitious. Recently U.S. has exported over 3 mm (high 3.6) bbls/day.  I believe maybe get to 4 mm without new export terminals for VLCC tankers.  Carlyle Group thinks with new Trump Executive Order their Corpus Christi project can be operational by end of 2020. I doubt it.  Enterprise Products filing for offshore terminal out of Houston hasn't commented since Trump signed Executive order. There are several others but I believe these to have best chance. Maybe Trafigura's off-shore terminal gets done.

Looks like prices WILL RISE !  If (1) OPEC extends cuts forever, (2) Iran exports stay low forever, (3) Venezuela exports stop forever, (4) US infrastructure bottlenecks last forever, and the (5) Non-OPEC (70% World Supply) producing countries production stagnates forever. 

GO LONG OIL ! (not) 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Falcon

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

"...to get U.S. crude into a hungry global market."

Falcon, this is NOT meant to be adversarial in the least. I am simply curious.

From the post it appears that there are significant and costly issues hindering getting U.S. light oil to market. That said:

1). I was under the impression that global demand may be 'cooling', at least until the trade war is resolved.

2). Considering that LTO needs to be blended with heavier crude to make it suitable for either some feedstock applications or to make it suitable for some refineries to process, is there actually a 'hungry global market' for LTO?

3). If the 'hungry global market' simply needs crude, not necessarily American crude, wouldn't it be easier and less expensive to supply it from the spare capacity, which apparently is available elsewhere without infrastructure issues?

As I said, I do not question your post and look forward to your response to queries.

[Falcon + 222]

13 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

"...to get U.S. crude into a hungry global market."

Falcon, this is NOT meant to be adversarial in the least. I am simply curious.

From the post it appears that there are significant and costly issues hindering getting U.S. light oil to market. That said:

1). I was under the impression that global demand may be 'cooling', at least until the trade war is resolved.

2). Considering that LTO needs to be blended with heavier crude to make it suitable for either some feedstock applications or to make it suitable for some refineries to process, is there actually a 'hungry global market' for LTO?

3). If the 'hungry global market' simply needs crude, not necessarily American crude, wouldn't it be easier and less expensive to supply it from the spare capacity, which apparently is available elsewhere without infrastructure issues?

As I said, I do not question your post and look forward to your response to queries.

The post quotes the opinion article from Bloomberg. There is concern regarding demand due to eventual economic slowdown, as well as Chinese trade war. But latest readings show demand is firm . . .  not rising substantially but firm.

YES, would be easier to supply from spare capacity from somewhere else . . . . BUT that's when oil goes from cartel controlled market to a FREE MARKET.  Right now almost a $10 differential btw Brent and WTI. I agree with article.  Mostly from US infrastructure bottleneck, but also from production growth outside of U.S. A $10 differential is way more than enough to account for couple bucks higher US shipping cost.

Can't change oil contracts, logistics and tanker shipping routes overnight . . . and thus pricing.  

Most buyers have short term spot purchases ,midterm contracts and longer term contracts.  Usually a combination of all three.  China has substantially increased storage capacity and continues to build. 

Tanker companies have optimised shipping routes to obtain greatest profits.

Certain buyers are optimised for certain type of oil (light, heavy, sour, sweet)

Buyers use various trading houses whether independent, oil major, or NOC. 

All that will adjust.  Free enterprise will address.  

If Saudi Arabia tells Korea I can give you X  discount off of Brent benchmark. a US supplier will say I'll give you 3X discount off of Brent plus cover shipping differential.

Competition will eventually come.

When producers were testifying before Senate in 2015 saying U.S. should allow oil exports so they can get same price per bbl as outside US producers there was a $2.00 differential.  In a FREE  MARKET the diff btw Brent and WTI (after accounting for oil quality/type) should only be difference in transportation costs. Not a $10 diff as we see today.

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Falcon

[AcK + 50]

2 hours ago, Falcon said:

The post quotes the opinion article from Bloomberg. There is concern regarding demand due to eventual economic slowdown, as well as Chinese trade war. But latest readings show demand is firm . . .  not rising substantially but firm.

YES, would be easier to supply from spare capacity from somewhere else . . . . BUT that's when oil goes from cartel controlled market to a FREE MARKET.  Right now almost a $10 differential btw Brent and WTI. I agree with article.  Mostly from US infrastructure bottleneck, but also from production growth outside of IS. More than enough to account for couple bucks higher US shipping cost.

Can't change oil contracts, logistics and tanker shipping routes overnight . . . and thus pricing.  

Most buyers have short term spot purchases ,but more some midterm and longer term contracts.  Usually a combination of all three.  China has substantially increased storage capacity and continues to build. 

Tanker companies have optimised shipping routes to obtain greatest profits.

Certain buyers are optimised for certain type of oil (light, heavy, sour, sweet)

Buyers use various trading houses whether independent, oil major, or NOC. 

All that will adjust.  Free enterprise will address.  

If Saudi Arabia tells Korea I can give you X amount discount off of Brent benchmark. a US supplier will say I'll give you 3X discount off of Brent plus cover shipping differential.

Competition will eventually come.

When producers were testifying before Senate in 2015 saying U.S. should allow oil exports so they can get same price per bbl as outside US producers there was a $2.00 differential.  In a FREE  MARKET The diff btw Brent and WTI (after accounting for oil quality/type) should only be difference in transportation costs. Not a $10 diff as we see today.

 

Theoretically agree.

But there is a practical problem when we tried to understand why US inventory continues to rise. Tight oil is light oil and global Gasoline/ Jet fuel demand is growing. Given the price differential, someone should pick up the production (was the theory).

Primary among the countries that can pick up incremental production - US, China and India - make up 70% of incremental demand of oil (per IEA). But US has pulled China into a Trade/Tech War. our research shows China has build a huge stockpile of crude oil last 6-7 months (200mn bbls - around 15 days of Chinese demand). They are not inclined to feed the dog (pardon me language) that bites.

US is also fighting India on Trade basis some very absurd logic. So the practical question remains - who is going to pick up the incremental US shale production. India possibly but China in current environment (Huawei/Tech War is bigger than Trade War) - doubt it!

The differentials will remain - unless US-China can sort out their issues. Our 2 cents...

[Falcon + 222]

On 5/29/2019 at 11:29 AM, AcK said:

Theoretically agree.

But there is a practical problem when we tried to understand why US inventory continues to rise. Tight oil is light oil and global Gasoline/ Jet fuel demand is growing. Given the price differential, someone should pick up the production (was the theory).

Primary among the countries that can pick up incremental production - US, China and India - make up 70% of incremental demand of oil (per IEA). But US has pulled China into a Trade/Tech War. our research shows China has build a huge stockpile of crude oil last 6-7 months (200mn bbls - around 15 days of Chinese demand). They are not inclined to feed the dog (pardon me language) that bites.

US is also fighting India on Trade basis some very absurd logic. So the practical question remains - who is going to pick up the incremental US shale production. India possibly but China in current environment (Huawei/Tech War is bigger than Trade War) - doubt it!

The differentials will remain - unless US-China can sort out their issues. Our 2 cents...

On 5/29/2019 at 11:29 AM, AcK said:

Theoretically agree.

But there is a practical problem when we tried to understand why US inventory continues to rise. Tight oil is light oil and global Gasoline/ Jet fuel demand is growing. Given the price differential, someone should pick up the production (was the theory).

Primary among the countries that can pick up incremental production - US, China and India - make up 70% of incremental demand of oil (per IEA). But US has pulled China into a Trade/Tech War. our research shows China has build a huge stockpile of crude oil last 6-7 months (200mn bbls - around 15 days of Chinese demand). They are not inclined to feed the dog (pardon me language) that bites.

US is also fighting India on Trade basis some very absurd logic. So the practical question remains - who is going to pick up the incremental US shale production. India possibly but China in current environment (Huawei/Tech War is bigger than Trade War) - doubt it!

The differentials will remain - unless US-China can sort out their issues. Our 2 cents...

 

Saying China is not buying US oil is technically mistaken. Most haven't noticed that a regulation was put in place whereby US oil exporters were required to register where the cargo was destined and recorded on Bill of Laden.  The industry said this reg was cumbersome, restrictive and costly.  Costly ? What would it take 15 minutes or $20.  

Trump cancelled the reg.  So now a Trading company like Trafigura, Vitol, or Guvnor can buy the U.S crude (and do) and sell it to China.  Don't ask . . . Don't tell. Also, oil ports in Myamar have pipelines to the Chinese interior where most of the Chinese teapot refiners are that use light crude.

Other example . . , The  US imports of Russian oil has skyrocketed. Venezuela pays barter (oil) payment for the $ Billions in Russian loans. Do you think Russia is shipping oil to US from Russia.  Think again.

The $10 differential is 80% US infrastructure bottleneck.  The US supply will explode when Permian pipelines completed and DUC's completion accelerated. 

What are US suppliers going to do with all the oil ? ? ? They can't eat it. They are not going to fill their swimming pools with it.  What then ?

US suppliers welcome competition. Bring it on.  Finally cost of production will be the limiting factor re sale price. It will be lower than today's price.

Prices going down unless Sauids start a war in Mideast. Dont put it past them. They are very capable of doing just that. It's all about the survival of The House of Saud.

Also consider . . . What happens when Venezuela is finally settled, Iran resolution is agreed to, and Canada completes Line 3 and Keystone XL, and Trans Mountain. Timing is anyone's guess, but eventually will happen.  

Most of that is Heavy oil. The three Canadian pipelines will carry an additional 1.1 mm bbls/day.  Most going to US.  ALL three pipes will be completed within 2 years.

Edited June 3, 2019 by Falcon

[AcK + 50]

2 hours ago, Falcon said:

 

Saying China is not buying US oil is technically mistaken. Most haven't noticed that a regulation was put in place whereby US oil exporters were required to register where the cargo was destined.  The industry said this reg was cumbersome, restrictive and costly.  Costly ? What would it take 15 minutes or $20.  

Trump cancelled the reg.  So now a Trading company like Trafigura, Vitol, or Guvnor can buy the U.S crude (and do) and sell it to China.  Don't ask . . . Don't tell. Also, oil ports in Mayamar have pipelines to the Chinese interior where most of the Chinese teapot refiners are that use light crude.

Other example . . , The  US imports of Russian oil has skyrocketed. Venezuela pays barter (oil) payment for the $ Billions in Russian loans. Do you think Russia is shipping oil to US from Russia.  Think again.

The $10 differential is 80% US infrastructure bottleneck.  The US supply will explode when Permian pipelines completed and DUC's completion accelerated. 

What are US suppliers going to do with all the oil ? ? ? They can't eat it. They are not going to fill their swimming pools with it.  What then ?

US suppliers welcome competition. Bring it on.  Finally cost of production will be the limiting factor re sale price. It will be lower than today's price.

Prices going down unless Sauids start a war in Mideast. Dont put it past them. They are very capable of doing just that. It's all about the survival of The House of Saud.

Also consider . . . What happens when Venezuela is finally settled, Iran resolution is agreed to, and Canada completes Line 3 and Keystone XL, and Trans Mountain. Timing is anyone's guess, but eventually will happen.  

Most of that is Heavy oil. The three Canadian pipelines will carry an additional 1.1 mm bbls/day.  Most going to US.  ALL three pipes will be completed within 2 years.

Take your points on the first part of the writeup - frankly we were not aware. Although I am not sure of Russia sending Venezuelan oil to US - recipe for disaster I would believe, even for the adventurous Russians.

On the last part, the problem is US has opened up too many fronts globally - and so far failed to close a number of them. Partly also to do with upcoming Presidential elections and Trump does not have appetite for war (he has plenty for squabbles/fights). So Venezuela continues to burn. Middle East continues to simmer. China is escalating and there is modest progress in other Trade disputes. More imp, US positioning in these trade disputes (wrt to trade deficits) is completely incorrect. US companies benefit from consumer/market access to many of these companies and why would they export from US when you have cheap labor available for local production in many of these countries. Sure US can play its superpower card and try and push unequal terms, but all of these come later - China is more pressing issue.

There is too much going on - and US stands alone in most of it - not sure how much will be resolved, and by when?

Will Trump even be around to fight the fires he has started? - what new global challenges will come through during this time?

[Falcon + 222]

20 hours ago, AcK said:

Take your points on the first part of the writeup - frankly we were not aware. Although I am not sure of Russia sending Venezuelan oil to US - recipe for disaster I would believe, even for the adventurous Russians.

On the last part, the problem is US has opened up too many fronts globally - and so far failed to close a number of them. Partly also to do with upcoming Presidential elections and Trump does not have appetite for war (he has plenty for squabbles/fights). So Venezuela continues to burn. Middle East continues to simmer. China is escalating and there is modest progress in other Trade disputes. More imp, US positioning in these trade disputes (wrt to trade deficits) is completely incorrect. US companies benefit from consumer/market access to many of these companies and why would they export from US when you have cheap labor available for local production in many of these countries. Sure US can play its superpower card and try and push unequal terms, but all of these come later - China is more pressing issue.

There is too much going on - and US stands alone in most of it - not sure how much will be resolved, and by when?

Will Trump even be around to fight the fires he has started? - what new global challenges will come through during this time?

Lot going on agreed.  China is an economic war not a trade war. It's not about selling more soy beans.  It's all about the agreement provisions China agreed to then took out of the agreement the Friday night before the wrap up meeting scheduled for the following Tuesday.  

Its about technology theft, forced technology transfer, massive industry subsidies , flagrant violation of WTO rules,  etc, etc. 

and opening up Chinese markets to industries like banking.

China built their economy on slave labor. For example about 20 years ago before digital cameras were in every phone I was asked to invest in a company that manufactures those one use, throw away cameras.  The company manufactured in China.  The Chinese factory hired about 1200 peasant Chinese girls 15 to 18 years old shipped in from remote farmlands.  The girls worked for 2 years before they could go home. They worked 10 hrs day, 6 days a week.  They were paid the equivalent of $18 US dollars A WEEK FOR THEIR 60 HOUR WEEK sitting there pulling a lever down on the plastic extrusion machine injecting tbe plastic into the camera mold. This amounted to about $1000 a year.  They did not get to keep the money.  Every 6 months the eldest son traveled to the cities in the east to collect the payment.  After they completed the 2 year of slave labor you get to go home.  Your family kept half your earnings ($1000) and the other half was used to pay your dowry. I guess these girls  didn't mind the slave labor, better than being killed upon birth (infanticide) because families didn't want girls. Some parts of China still practice infanticide.

Don't forget China is still run by the very powerful Communist Party. The Communist Party Secretary General Xi Jinping does not have full negotiating autonomy. The Communist Party makes the final decision.

Today there are now 300 million middle class out of 1.4 Billion population. Total 90 million are Party members. That's an amazing accomplishment, but still hundreds of millions of peasant.

What has changed is advanced mfg automation and robotics. This will change everything.  Advanced mfg automation will take away the advantage of cheap labor in China. Nike was one of the first to move mfg to China. They are worried about trade war. Their competitor Adidas is not worried. They mfg in Germany, at a FULLY AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING PLANT. You should see this operation.That's where it is all heading. Leading the world in automation are China, Japan, Germany and US is distant fourth.

A former Indiana governor, Mike Pence headed a US committee to discuss future advanced mfg technologies.

Automation's will level the playing fields. Supply chains will follow the mfg.  P

Just as the Oil Industry experts, executives and OPEC missed the coming of the shale boom, some will miss the next generation of manufacturing automation that can be competitive in all industrialized nations and get left behind.

Trump has a lot of irons in the fire. Dont know if that's good or bad. He has said a lot of stupid things and done some stupid things. He causes most of his own problems, but he is the only national leader to take on the NUMBER ONE problem of not just the US but the entire industrialized world . ..  Chinese Economic Hegemony.

Past three US Administrations have taken the easy way out and punted.

If not Trump then who ? I hope he can pull it off. He's holding the best "hand" , he just better play it correctly.

One of the Chinese best moves was building massive infratucture. They have spent trillions on roads, bridges, dams, power plants, airports, railroads and housing.  

While the US as been spending trillions on defending an ungrateful Europe, Japan, Korea etc . . . . and even more on protecting Mideast OPEC oil production and shipping lanes.

U.S. once needed their oil

WE DONT NEED THEIR OIL ANYMORE.

GET OUT OF MIDEAST. 

BUILD U.S. INFRASTRUCTURE.

Invest or provide economic incentives to develop next generation tech.

 

 

 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Falcon

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

The downside to automation is that people are put out of work.

When a large number of people are out of work with time on their hands, and hungry, things can get out of hand quickly.

Furthermore, if people are not working, then they are not paying taxes. Where are  governments going to get money to operate? If you tax the 'robots' you again increase the cost of 'labor'.

Finally, it has gotten to the point now that the Millennials and subsequent generations think milk comes out of a carton, not a cow and that a house just magically appears and is not constructed. 

The 'Rise of the Machine' is killing the trades and true craftsmanship. Sad but true. 

[Falcon + 222]

12 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

The downside to automation is that people are put out of work.

When a large number of people are out of work with time on their hands, and hungry, things can get out of hand quickly.

Furthermore, if people are not working, then they are not paying taxes. Where are  governments going to get money to operate? If you tax the 'robots' you again increase the cost of 'labor'.

Finally, it has gotten to the point now that the Millennials and subsequent generations think milk comes out of a carton, not a cow and that a house just magically appears and is not constructed. 

The 'Rise of the Machine' is killing the trades and true craftsmanship. Sad but true. 

Some very good questions.

Don't know the answers.

However, that is where the world is heading.

Hope there are solutions to those questions.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 5/29/2019 at 2:26 PM, AcK said:

Take your points on the first part of the writeup - frankly we were not aware. Although I am not sure of Russia sending Venezuelan oil to US - recipe for disaster I would believe, even for the adventurous Russians.

On the last part, the problem is US has opened up too many fronts globally - and so far failed to close a number of them. Partly also to do with upcoming Presidential elections and Trump does not have appetite for war (he has plenty for squabbles/fights). So Venezuela continues to burn. Middle East continues to simmer. China is escalating and there is modest progress in other Trade disputes. More imp, US positioning in these trade disputes (wrt to trade deficits) is completely incorrect. US companies benefit from consumer/market access to many of these companies and why would they export from US when you have cheap labor available for local production in many of these countries. Sure US can play its superpower card and try and push unequal terms, but all of these come later - China is more pressing issue.

There is too much going on - and US stands alone in most of it - not sure how much will be resolved, and by when?

Will Trump even be around to fight the fires he has started? - what new global challenges will come through during this time?

I'd add some caveats to this:
1)  There are two Americas, and Trump is primarily concerned with the America that votes for him.  Thus, there are plenty of states, citizens, and companies he'll gladly use as cannon fodder to obtain better conditions for his constituents. 
2)  There's a national security element to Trump's decisions.  Overseas business may boost GDP, but that comes at a defense cost.  In many cases, overseas business enriches elites while passing costs on to the public.  Trump seems unwilling to make that trade.  Given how many US citizens have suffered through the GWOT, I'm inclined to agree with Trump. 

#2 is related to the "Main Street vs. Wall Street" discussion.  The gist of the issue is that for several decades, federal policy has encouraged GDP to grow without benefiting the average citizen.  Quite to the contrary, average citizens - the residents of Main Street - have seen their standard of living fall as the select few who benefit from global trade enriched themselves.  The incentives of Main Street are not aligned with the incentives of Wall street; this is how we ended up with two Americas. 

The unbridled pursuit of GDP also has practical consequences as dollar values go up without any real change in capability.  I.e. instead of investing in true productivity improvements, America played games with financial numbers.  E.g. the US has $13 billion aircraft carriers that still don't work.  At some point, financial numbers must be backed by real knowledge, real skill, and real productive capacity.  My impression of Trump is that he understands this. 

[AcK + 50]

I am no expert on this topic but let me try to make an informed case.

First up, I do believe the wall street vs main street angle in us is way overblown. Not that the issue does not exist - but that it is overblown. The income inequality in US is high but when looked at in context of the high per capita income, a main street us citizen also makes more than an average asian citizen. Per capital income and gini coeff data below...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

I do believe the fight with china is much beyond a trade war. China has been guilty of trying to illegally copy US ip rights. But am not sure what crime mexico, india and a number of other countries have committed to be treated as such by US. Does trump seriously believe that us citizens would give up their current jobs (as they are) to get into manfacturing car parts, textiles and intermediate engineering goods at us$2-5k/month. And will corporates seriously invest to build these factories now. I seriously doubt it.

Finally if trump cares so much about people on main street - why such lopsided tax reform last year. Wall street got a >10pc tax cut in perpetuity. Main street got a modest 2pc average cut for a limited period of time.

Sorry but the general feeling in our part of the world is this guy is nuts - maybe we are biased but so far we have not seen much to change that first impression. Taking the global economy on the path of doom for little benefit to anyone really.

[Falcon + 222]

19 hours ago, AcK said:

Sorry but the general feeling in our part of the world is this guy is nuts - maybe we are biased but so far we have not seen much to change that first impression. Taking the global economy on the path of doom for little benefit to anyone really.

First maybe "nuts" is what's needed to take on the Chinese Communist Party and their drive for World Economic Hegeomony 

Don't know where your part the world is but there is no path to doom.  All China has to do is agree to play fair, stop IP theft, forced tech transfer, massive industry subsidizing creating dumping and predatory pricing.  Is that so hard to do.  

If Chinese  Communist Party won't play fair and wants to continue their illegal trade practices so be it.  The more they resist change the more companies will expand elseware, move out or start up in other countries. 

China's debt service is larger than their GDP ! Kind of a Ponzi scheme.

China's outstanding credit is 3 times GDP. 

They have $3 trillion in reserves but their debt could cause bih problems down the road.

As for US border security  . . . It's U.S. problem to solve.  Mind your own business.

Why don't you harp on Communist China's serious civil rights violations record instead of worrying about US border crisis. .  .  .  . or tell China to crack down on infanticide , the killing of millions of newborn girls.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Falcon

[AcK + 50]

8 hours ago, Falcon said:

First maybe "nuts" is what's needed to take on the Chinese Communist Party and their drive for World Economic Hegeomony 

Don't know where your part the world is but there is no path to doom.  All China has to do is agree to play fair, stop IP theft, forced tech transfer, massive industry subsidizing creating dumping and predatory pricing.  Is that so hard to do.  

If Chinese  Communist Party won't play fair and wants to continue their illegal trade practices so be it.  The more they resist change the more companies will expand elseware, move out or start up in other countries. 

China's debt service is larger than their GDP ! Kind of a Ponzi scheme.

China's outstanding credit is 3 times GDP. 

They have $3 trillion in reserves but their debt could cause bih problems down the road.

As for US border security  . . . It's U.S. problem to solve.  Mind your own business.

Why don't you harp on Communist China's serious civil rights violations record instead of worrying about US border crisis. .  .  .  . or tell China to crack down on infanticide , the killing of millions of newborn girls.

Dude did you even read what I wrote. Completely believe US trade-tech war with china has merit. I am not an apologist for china. My issue is with all the other fronts The Duck has opened up, which have very little merit. And the problem is this makes it so much harder for the rest of the world to support the US on China - kinda makes it harder and time consuming for US to bring China to justise for its ip theft and other infringements.

[AcK + 50]

https://361capital.com/weekly-briefing/summer-pickles/?utm_source=wrb&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=06032019&utm_content=p

Less lucky are the managers running companies making long-term investment planning decisions in the current uncertain global trade environment. Think of GoPro who moved their camera production from China, to avoid the new tariffs, only to place them in Mexico. They are not the only company that made this unfortunate shift.