Oil Demand Needs to Halve: Equinor

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

8 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Minimise the impact at each level as much as possible, leave the least amount of footprint of our activities, upstream, midstream and downstream as possible, use the resources to the max. so they are not wasted or end up as a "collateral damage or loss" in achieving a primary goal, for example in refineries, try to harness and reuse as much of the heat generated for other purposes, reduce the emissions using a closed loop system, reuse of drilling fluids, water and recycling of all the produced water, frac water etc. Try to make as much of the operations and processes synergistic so the same resources, power, water etc can be used together for multiple purposes during an operation or process, apply the best available techs to max the primary and secondary goals and reducing the impact on the enviroment. More responsible use of all resources........................................................

As a moderator, I tried to award you a medal for this comment, but there seems to be some kind of bug, and the medal isn't awarded.

@Rodent any idea what's up with the bug on awarding medals?

 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

On 6/7/2019 at 7:32 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

As a moderator, I tried to award you a medal for this comment, but there seems to be some kind of bug, and the medal isn't awarded.

@Rodent any idea what's up with the bug on awarding medals?

 

Thanks Tom,

I am a very firm believer of conservation of resources and protection of the environment from the very beginning before I even ventured into the oil and gas and other natres industries myself and using best practices and best techs available to do so and investing in improving and evolving techs and supporting the growth and development of new techs across many different industries.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 6/7/2019 at 12:51 PM, ceo_energemsier said:

I dont know about the boasting part and renewables in India... I would really , deeply worry about stable, sustainable power provided to the masses without "load shedding" (I think they still call the massive rolling widespread blackouts load shedding  in India) , clean interrupted water, proper sanitation and toilets, and modernise the sewer system, you see raw sewage/effluent flowing freely along the streets, roads, highways, into rivers etc. Clean up the massive pollution at every level that exists in India.

Is it really "load shedding" when 40% of the power is stolen? 

[AcK + 50]

On 6/6/2019 at 1:24 AM, Bill the Science Nerd said:

RE will be cheap enough by 2025 that fossil plants will just be shut down. BEVs will be on price parity by 2022 and cheaper than the ICE equivalent after. No worries, it will happen on its own.

Define cheap!

Tesla model 3 was promised at usd35k. I dont think its there yet. China they are selling much higher cause of course no local production yet.

[zextaz + 20]

We are still in some sort of ICE age right now on this planet it will go warmer no matter what we do human think they can control the phases and all they need to do is to go out with plastic made protesting sign dance , cry and shout and they will make "change" that will slow down warming the ultimate solution is that a warmer planet will have more space for life there is nothing we can do about it its a natural cycle if the planet can't fix itself we will all die. those ignorant think that they can make a change on a cycle that kept life for millions of years but no. we live on a space garden no matter what we do it will survive. now the question is are we going to survive the cycle of this planet? probably.. with our current lifestyle? maybe not since we are breeding ideocracy generation that do not understand the value of oil and see it as pure evil. they do not understand that mostly 100% of the current lifestyle they have is built on oil they do no seek alternative for petrochemical and energy but gang up against it.

[zextaz + 20]

Canada is starting to ban petrochemical 1 time use plastic devices this is good for wood and aluminum/ steel business i guess this "green" turn was propel by trump tariff and war / hate coming from china after we put their Huawei queen in prison when USA ask us to do it.

[zextaz + 20]

next step is to ban all incoming cheap dollars store shit and Walmart crappy import that break after 1 use like toys and unregulated working devices from china man i wish we go back to time when you pay 200$ for something and it last you a decade with all that free aluminum and steel we have now we can build real stuff like in the 50 that last forever

[jjj + 26]

On 6/7/2019 at 2:51 PM, ceo_energemsier said:

I dont know about the boasting part and renewables in India... I would really , deeply worry about stable, sustainable power provided to the masses without "load shedding" (I think they still call the massive rolling widespread blackouts load shedding  in India) , clean interrupted water, proper sanitation and toilets, and modernise the sewer system, you see raw sewage/effluent flowing freely along the streets, roads, highways, into rivers etc. Clean up the massive pollution at every level that exists in India.

That raw sewage is actually part of the master Bio-Mass plan.

 

JJ

[Ron Rogers + 2]

On 6/6/2019 at 11:09 PM, ronwagn said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnot_cycle I admit that this is over my head. I am talking about waste heat that is used to heat buildings or other simple uses. I would, of course, love to see ICE engines use more of the heat they produce. 

F1 race cars have a MGU-H unit that collects the heat from the turbo, and converts it to electricity to turn a small electric motor that adds power to the ICE motor.

[Bill the Science Nerd + 73]

On 6/6/2019 at 11:33 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

What have you been smoking?

Reality.

[Bill the Science Nerd + 73]

On 6/6/2019 at 10:48 PM, Marina Schwarz said:

Which "RE" and where? The world, as I've pointed out before, is quite big and topographically diverse. Which means:

1. You can't have wind mills everywhere.

2. You can't have solar panels everywhere.

3. You simply do not have big rivers everywhere.

Plus, even if your fantasy plays out (because all governments suddenly go crazy and ban them) and all fossil fuel plants are shut down by 2025, EVs have a long way to go before they compare with ICEs* on everything that matters. And then there is the tiny little issue of maritime transport, which accounts for 90% of international trade. Ninety percent, as per the IMO. Those cargo ships use diesel. Can we please be realistic about it?

*This includes by far not just passenger cars but also trucks and various industrial transportation machines from tractors to mining whatevers.

In the US, it would be mostly wind. A 4x overbuild split evenly between the Great Plains, Texas, California, and the Northwest would do it. The big part would be the improved grid interconnections that are needed anyway.

With new wind projects selling electricity at $20/MWh, this would provide a steady supply of electricity at $80/MWh with today’s tech. And prices are still falling.

For light passenger vehicles, BEVs are already superior to ICE on every front except price, and as I said, that will reach parity by 2021 or 2022.

Trucks are coming out next year.

Mining equipment is already largely electric.

Tractors will come quickly after trucks.

Even BEV light commercial aircraft are happening now.

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

5 hours ago, Bill the Science Nerd said:

Mining equipment is already largely electric.

By "largely" you probably mean "They make a few electric trucks". I checked Caterpillar's website. They haven't gone all-electric as of yet. Something tells me neither have their competitors.

5 hours ago, Bill the Science Nerd said:

Even BEV light commercial aircraft are happening now.

I'm sure people are queuing to fly on one of these. When's Boeing going out of business because last I heard they actually managed to strike a deal for that 767 Max that got so much bad rep recently?

I respect optimism but could we not make it sound as if it's a matter of a couple of years before every single vehicle on the road -- and every single aircraft -- is electric, please? Because it won't be a couple of years. Thanks.

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

1 minute ago, Marina Schwarz said:

By "largely" you probably mean "They make a few electric trucks". I checked Caterpillar's website. They haven't gone all-electric as of yet. Something tells me neither have their competitors.

I'm sure people are queuing to fly on one of these. When's Boeing going out of business because last I heard they actually managed to strike a deal for that 767 Max that got so much bad rep recently?

I respect optimism but could we not make it sound as if it's a matter of a couple of years before every single vehicle on the road -- and every single aircraft -- is electric, please? Because it won't be a couple of years. Thanks.

Having a lot of exposure in the mining industry directly and indirectly, I can tell you that across all the countries, there are just a  handful of "underground" mining equipment that are electric. I have seen some forklifts and other construction type equipment but nothing that are directly engaged in the mining process including blasting, drilling, excavating, ore management and ore processing. There are a lot of electric personnel transport vehicles....... 

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

Thanks, a view from the inside is always the best. I saw Cat was releasing two new e-trucks and they look impressive, certainly, but until they go all-electric, I'm not buying the hype.

I'm thinking of starting an online course "How to Differentiate between Facts and Wishful Thinking". It will be a blast, I'm sure.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Marina Schwarz

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

2 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

I'm thinking of starting an online course "How to Differentiate between Facts and Wishful Thinking". It will be a blast, I'm sure.

Sounds like fun!

 

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

Let's do it together: a huge MOOC on common sense and critical thinking.

[Bill the Science Nerd + 73]

7 hours ago, Marina Schwarz said:

By "largely" you probably mean "They make a few electric trucks". I checked Caterpillar's website. They haven't gone all-electric as of yet. Something tells me neither have their competitors.

I'm sure people are queuing to fly on one of these. When's Boeing going out of business because last I heard they actually managed to strike a deal for that 767 Max that got so much bad rep recently?

I respect optimism but could we not make it sound as if it's a matter of a couple of years before every single vehicle on the road -- and every single aircraft -- is electric, please? Because it won't be a couple of years. Thanks.

I mean look at new models being offered. Most new models are electric, whether trucks, loaders, or drill rigs.

And I never mentioned large commercial aircraft. The fact that you feel the need to deflect should tell you that even you don’t believe I am wrong.

[Marina Schwarz + 1,576]

I am actually certain you are wrong if out of the right reasons.

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

From Equinor's lips to someone's ears?

Sound of Music to someone? LOL

From Equinor PR:

 

Actions not adequate yet to meet climate goals

Government actions are falling short of what will be necessary to meet long-term global climate change management goals, Equinor’s chief economist warned in a discussion of the Norwegian multinational energy company’s 2019 Energy Perspectives on June 25.

 

Government actions are falling short of what will be necessary to meet long-term global climate change management goals, Equinor ASA’s chief economist warned in a discussion of the Norwegian multinational energy company’s 2019 Energy Perspectives on June 25.

“Humankind has never gone through an energy transition. Everything we’ve done has involved adding new technologies to existing ones. Climate concerns make a true energy transition a necessity,” Erik Waerness, a senior vice-president at Equinor, told his audience at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Current climate actions are far from enough to put the world on a path to keep global warming well below 2°C., the forecast says. Global emissions increased in 2018 to reach an all-time peak, and the longer this trend continues, the stronger measures will be necessary to reach common goals, it points out. Rapid and significant technology changes will be more urgent than ever, the forecast indicates.

“If we stopped all exploration investments now and did a little bit of enhanced recovery, global supplies from fields that are being developed would decline at about 4.5%/year through 2050,” Waerness said. “If that goes on for 30 years, the world would be left producing about as much oil as it produces now. It will require at least 300 million new barrels if we are to avoid relying heavily on oil sands and other heavily emitting petroleum sources.”

The world will need 40 times more carbon capture and storage (CCS) capacity than exists today, he said. “Does anybody have an idea how much 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide is? It’s twice as much mass as the world produces in wheat each year. To reach that goal by 2050, the world will need to open a new CCS facility each year,” Waerness said.

No walk in the park

In a situation where the global economy continues to grow, reducing carbon emissions by developing more renewable resources will be even more of a challenge, Waerness said. “It should be relatively clear that achieving an energy transition is no walk in the park. Energy-consuming nations will be extremely important in determining whether we meet this goal. There will be a need for massive investments in all sectors,” he said.

Like most current energy forecasts, Equinor’s recent outlook presents three scenarios. The Renewal scenario shows a way to achieve the targets of the 2015 Paris climate agreement and limit global warming to well below 2°C., the commonly accepted limit. This would be delivered through rapid and significant policy tightening, global cooperation, technology developments, and substantial changes in business and consumer behavior.

Under a Reform scenario driven by market forces and technology developments, rules, norms, and institutions that govern relations between actors on the world stage would be characterized by the coexistence of competition and cooperation, rarely developing into sustained or large-scale conflicts. There could be episodic regional crises, but these would remain largely contained and limited in time, the forecast said.

Under a Rivalry scenario, the geopolitical uncertainty and volatility that is currently present in the world could persist and, in some dimensions, also escalate. There would be a resurgence in competition for the balance of power between the major powers. The use of force by nation states increases as conflict prevention mechanisms increasingly would be less effective, and discriminatory, isolationist, mercantilist, and nationalistic political ideologies would gain momentum.

Separating noise from talk

“We’re excited about a lot of things, although you have to take away the noise from all the talk. There are some things on the technology side that are exciting. We’ve probably reached the limit on how many large wind turbines can be onshore, but we still can keep increasing their size offshore. Infrastructure will be necessary to keep alternative vehicles from being simple additions to fossil fuel vehicles,” Waerness said.

All the consequences of policies that are enacted now will have an impact on politicians in the future, he said. “All climate policies that work have regressive impacts. They tend to affect poorer parts of the world’s population. While it’s encouraging to see youth discussing what can be done to improve climate policies, their parents are protesting against price and property impacts from building more wind parks,” he said.

“Look at how difficult it still is to get low-hanging fruit, such as coal, out of the electricity mix, particularly in Norway where no power is generated from coal. That moves the focus to other industrial pollution sources, which is more challenging in many ways,” Waerness observed.

In its Reform and Rivalry scenarios, Equinor’s outlook assumes that climate goals will not be met by 2050 and energy costs from traditional sources will be more expensive. “Perfectly functioning installations such as coal-fired power plants would need to be taken out of service well before they become obsolete,” Waerness said.

“Technology changes we have built into our scenarios may lead to a gradual political miracle where countries agree on measures for reaching our climate reduction targets. We will need that among the biggest players,” he went on. “In the European Union, there are no measures to get members to agree on a carbon change. Consumers need to have an incentive to change behavior, and a carbon tax is the most obvious starting point.”