Emmissions up, renewables nowhere

[markslawson + 1,042]

22 hours ago, Red said:

Tyr building a dam in a year or two - will never happen.  Hydro has a legacy position in the energy mix, so for other renewables to catch up with dam construction during the 20th century will take some time.

You're thinking of Australia.. and for Aus its not just in a year or two its now. The figures I cited are global. The Indians have plans to dam half the Himalayas and the Chinese are the world champion dam builders.. I don't think you properly understand the graph you cite in your post. There's a vast amount of proposed wind and solar projects. So? Also remember that you have to discount by the much lower effective output of intermittent projects. Leave it with you.

[Red + 252]

10 minutes ago, markslawson said:

You're thinking of Australia.. and for Aus its not just in a year or two its now. The figures I cited are global. The Indians have plans to dam half the Himalayas and the Chinese are the world champion dam builders.. I don't think you properly understand the graph you cite in your post. There's a vast amount of proposed wind and solar projects. So? Also remember that you have to discount by the much lower effective output of intermittent projects. Leave it with you.

OMG, you are not up to this at all!

Dams take years to build - it does not matter which county we are talking about.  

I am on AEMO's mailing list, so I assure you I fully understand my earlier post.

I don't think you have a clue about these areas that you post in as you cannot substantiate anything you say.  Your headline was fake news.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 6/15/2019 at 1:42 AM, markslawson said:

You're thinking of Australia.. and for Aus its not just in a year or two its now. The figures I cited are global. The Indians have plans to dam half the Himalayas and the Chinese are the world champion dam builders.. I don't think you properly understand the graph you cite in your post. There's a vast amount of proposed wind and solar projects. So? Also remember that you have to discount by the much lower effective output of intermittent projects. Leave it with you.

3 Gorges was about 9 years from start of construction to commissioning. 

[Meredith Poor + 883]

On 6/13/2019 at 2:40 AM, markslawson said:

We have to thank a BP report out this week for this graph

This seems about right.. note that its total energy so it includes transportation (the oil). As can be seen renewables have increased from very little to something but its total contribution is less than the increase in the contribution from natural gas over a decade, mostly at the expense of coal although overall energy demand is growing. Gas has pushed coal out of both the UK and US for market reasons. Note that renewables would also include things like biomass (the UK, California) and geothermal (New Zealand, California and Iceland, I think). That does not leave much room for solar and wind but a common trick of the renewables lobby is too quote all those sources plus hydro as collectively as renewables and leave readers with the impression that they are talking about solar and wind. To be clear biomass and geothermal are dispatchable, they do not have the problems of intermittent sources, while hydro is very high value as it is very easy to switch on and off - none of the ramping up or down required for other generators.

 

It's worth looking at trending costs in comparison to total energy use and energy source composition. Is it likely that oil will drop in price by two thirds over the next ten years? Both of these charts are from LBNL (Berkeley Lab).

Edited June 16, 2019 by Meredith Poor

[markslawson + 1,042]

3 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

It's worth looking at trending costs in comparison to total energy use and energy source composition. Is it likely that oil will drop in price by two thirds over the next ten years? Both of these charts are from LBNL (Berkeley Lab).

There may be some merit in the comparison. I couldn't see any evident price trends myself, except for gas pushing out coal in some markets due to convenience and cost. I was interested in the suggestion that there would be a long term decrease in the price of oil. At the moment the American sale oil industry seems to set an upper bound to oil prices (if it goes up, the oil rigs come out and prices fall), but I'd have to look at prices before offering any weightier opinion. Maybe if Venezuela comes back on stream?