Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House

My internet here in Southeast Asia is a snails pace this afternoon.  Heavy internet traffic.

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(edited)

15 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

This internal outlook, overlaying their historic zero-sum perspective, would make sense given the latest developments.  Party because with the reality of an increasingly losing position as their new baseline, a cessation of further damage was their best scenario.

● ● ● Summary: Trump forced Beijing to see less-loss as the better loss.

However, as noted in the attitude of President Trump, he retains the larger tariff level despite China’s re-engagement.  Trump has allowed the restart to be the face-saving Xi needed, yet he retains the prior tariff gains.   Team Trump yielded nothing back.

Do not take this dynamic lightly.  China has never negotiated for, let alone accepted, less-loss before.  Understanding this is new ground for them, we can only imagine the anxiety within the internal discussions etc.  Vice-Premier Liu He, cannot turn to the Beijing Hawks and say ‘I told you so’; he can only start again and hope the same outcome does not repeat.  ...

This is a remarkably cogent analysis.  Tip of the hat to Tom Kirkman for being able to put it together so succinctly.

Now, folks,ask yourself this: could Hillary Clinton, including with the hefty assist of Bill Clinton, have pulled this off?  Does she have the expansive breadth of vision to have seen the possibilities?  Well?  Hey, you tell me.  Because I sure don't see it.  You can go criticize this fellow Trump all day long if it makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, but let's get real: he is at this point in time exactly the only man in America that could have pulled it off.  The Korean War is ending, and all without firing a shot out of a singe rifle.  IS this guy a diplomat, or what? 

Tom, for once your prescience has been smack on. My congratulations.  You know it could be done, when all others  (including me) could not see it.  Now, that's insight!

P.S. Update on the above: as Tom points out in his subsequent posting (below), in actuality the commentary I incorrectly ascribed to him was written in a publication he visits.  So:  not his work, but nonetheless, sage enough. 

Edited by Jan van Eck
Added P.S.
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7 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Tom, for once your prescience has been smack on. My congratulations.  You know it could be done, when all others  (including me) could not see it.  Now, that's insight!

Thanks Jan but that's not me.  That was an excerpt from the article by Sundance at the Conservative Tree House.

Generally, I tend to make my own comments before then providing a link and an excerpt from the article.

Here is how I introduced that post:

==================================

And here we go, Mainstream Media is clueless, as usual.  Will MSM report factually about the progress being made?  I remain sceptical. 

As usual, intro excerpt below from the independent Conservative Tree House, and fuller analysis in the link:

President Trump Tweets Details of U.S. -vs- China Status – Talks Resume, Tariffs Remain, Ag Purchases and Non-NatSec Tech

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On 6/28/2019 at 5:14 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

The Orange Man Bad filter can be difficult to break through.

As can the Orange man Good filter...

At least you don't like Fox, we can agree about that.

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15 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

On pins and needles this weekend, waiting to see if Trump can actually pull this off...

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No chance.  That would require Kim to go away.

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There hasn't been diddly really accomplished, Kim still has his handful of small half assed nukes, and knows using one ends life there so they won't be. What is going on is a circus, but perception is reality in some things, politics among them, and if this brings down the rhetoric and chills things, great.

The North Korean forces are so heavily pre-deployed for a attack, pulling back the conventional forces would be relatively easy, and a great meaningful thing. 

Aligning with USSR, and then China, and then their own version of whatever they do. Look at what has happened to the North and South since 1950. If you ever needed dynamic evidence aligning with the USA is better than old school communists, that is it.

Since the USSR went broke and the Berlin Wall feel, countries either align with the western financial models, or they don't. China is big enough to sort of break the rules, but other than that, countries that don't essentially follow western money rules are left quite poor, the exception being the odd extraction based economy (classically oil or gas). Closed, subsidized industries just don't cut it any more.

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NEC Director Larry Kudlow Discusses U.S-China Negotiation Restart

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow on the U.S.-China trade talks where recontact has been established and now officially restarted. As noted, President Trump is in no hurry; the status-quo is leverage in our favor.

Additionally Director Kudlow discusses the potential benefits of the USMCA trade deal and whether the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates.

Regarding “inflation” these pundits just don’t get it.  For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy would reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) consistently confirms our earlier predictions releasing data where inflation is essentially nonexistent.

Since the mid-to-late 1980’s the U.S. economy split into two divergent economic engines. One traditional engine powered by Main Street, and a second engine powered by Wall Street.  For thirty-plus years the distance between those engines was growing as federal monetary policy provided low interest rate support for investment, but the end destination for the investment was NOT in the U.S. [Hence, globalism]

For more than 30 years monetary policy has been driven by Wall Street influence.  FED interest rates made borrowing cheap, but the money -the actual investment itself- flowed out of the United States.  The end product from the investment, steered by multinationals, created products overseas.  Within this flow of capital there was no benefit to Main Street.

President Trump’s America-First policy has reversed the dynamic.   As a result of his focus and demand, the end product(s) from capital investment are now here in the U.S.A.

The MOUSE is money or investment. The CHEESE is end products, manufactured stuff.

Rather than beg the Wall Street investment mouse to change direction in the manufacturing maze, president Trump has simply moved the cheese to Main Street.  The mouse’s travel changed accordingly.

...

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Now It Makes Sense – Beijing Assigned Hardline Trade Handler to Vice-Premier Liu He

Posted by sundance

We had to wait a few weeks to see how the Beijing communists and Xi Jinping hardliners were positioned for new trade talks; and now things make sense.

Initially it seemed at odds with Beijing’s prior position to restart U.S-China trade negotiations with Vice-Premier Liu He.  The prior three months of negotiation came to a collapse when Beijing resoundingly rejected the trade terms organized by Liu He.  If the Red Dragon was so opposed to conciliatory terms, why would team Xi restart with the same negotiator?  Now it makes sense, they didn’t.

China’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan has been assigned the role to harden the position of the communist regime and override any panda presentations by Liu He.  Vice-Premier Liu retains the panda mask, but Zhong is the ultimate control agent.  The message within Zhong’s placement tells the true nature of the Chinese position: Trade War !

Beijing attempts to downplay the position of their hard-line commerce addition, but the reality of the re-started trade discussions tells a more fulsome story.  Chairman Xi took the strategically presented bait and is going to engage in full confrontational trade war with President Trump and the U.S. team.

 

... Ultimately an openly hostile and aggressive position by China is exactly what President Trump would prefer.  Pretense is a painstakingly annoying negotiation strategy and President Trump is pre-disposed to be a notoriously ‘get-to-the-nub-of-it’ type of negotiator.  Down South the term would be: ‘he doesn’t suffer fools’.

The current status-quo, where international investment is paused to wait and see what happens (while corporations make alternate plans), is buckets more favorable to President Trump than Chairman Xi.  Essentially, the current stalemate has nimble companies departing China, the Belt-and-Road initiatives shrinking and Beijing is burning through cash to subsidize their current manufacturing base. [The currency devaluation is ongoing]

Existing tariffs remain a financial drain on China, not U.S. consumers. In actuality U.S. inflation continues to decline. Meanwhile President Trump is hitting Xi with public questions about Beijing purchasing U.S. agricultural products; a previous promise.

In actuality President Trump knows the purchase promises were the typical false-promises of Beijing; but, well, the lies have a value in calling out Panda’s duplicity.

The potential tariffs (25 percent on $300+ billion in goods) sit on the table as a weapon President Trump would love to start using.  However, in the dance with the dragon Lighthizer and Ross have to wait to allow the panda mask to fully drop.  Currently Chairman Xi Jinping is trying to keep the financial/investment class from noticing the panda mask is slipping.  However, that ruse can’t last too much longer.  Thus the dance continues.

At the 30,000/ft level China appears to have accepted that President Trump isn’t going to concede an inch. Therefore their position in the trade stand-off is timed to exhaust around the 2020 presidential election.  Despite what the U.S. media are claiming, Beijing is making very visible moves to withstand more than a year of status quo strain.

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As a great workaround, in the USA you are going to see the development of "Free Trade Zones" to the Chinese stuff and go in and out. 

With the right lobbying you can get the waivers.

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