Trump vs. Xi Trade Battle, Running Commentary from Conservative Tree House

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

My internet here in Southeast Asia is a snails pace this afternoon.  Heavy internet traffic.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 6/29/2019 at 7:41 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

This internal outlook, overlaying their historic zero-sum perspective, would make sense given the latest developments.  Party because with the reality of an increasingly losing position as their new baseline, a cessation of further damage was their best scenario.

● ● ● Summary: Trump forced Beijing to see less-loss as the better loss.

However, as noted in the attitude of President Trump, he retains the larger tariff level despite China’s re-engagement.  Trump has allowed the restart to be the face-saving Xi needed, yet he retains the prior tariff gains.   Team Trump yielded nothing back.

Do not take this dynamic lightly.  China has never negotiated for, let alone accepted, less-loss before.  Understanding this is new ground for them, we can only imagine the anxiety within the internal discussions etc.  Vice-Premier Liu He, cannot turn to the Beijing Hawks and say ‘I told you so’; he can only start again and hope the same outcome does not repeat.  ...

This is a remarkably cogent analysis.  Tip of the hat to Tom Kirkman for being able to put it together so succinctly.

Now, folks,ask yourself this: could Hillary Clinton, including with the hefty assist of Bill Clinton, have pulled this off?  Does she have the expansive breadth of vision to have seen the possibilities?  Well?  Hey, you tell me.  Because I sure don't see it.  You can go criticize this fellow Trump all day long if it makes you feel all warm and fuzzy inside, but let's get real: he is at this point in time exactly the only man in America that could have pulled it off.  The Korean War is ending, and all without firing a shot out of a single rifle.  IS this guy a diplomat, or what? 

Tom, for once your prescience has been smack on. My congratulations.  You know it could be done, when all others  (including me) could not see it.  Now, that's insight!

P.S. Update on the above: as Tom points out in his subsequent posting (below), in actuality the commentary I incorrectly ascribed to him was written in a publication he visits.  So:  not his work, but nonetheless, sage enough. 

Edited August 4, 2019 by Jan van Eck
Added P.S.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

7 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

Tom, for once your prescience has been smack on. My congratulations.  You know it could be done, when all others  (including me) could not see it.  Now, that's insight!

Thanks Jan but that's not me.  That was an excerpt from the article by Sundance at the Conservative Tree House.

Generally, I tend to make my own comments before then providing a link and an excerpt from the article.

Here is how I introduced that post:

==================================

And here we go, Mainstream Media is clueless, as usual.  Will MSM report factually about the progress being made?  I remain sceptical. 

As usual, intro excerpt below from the independent Conservative Tree House, and fuller analysis in the link:

President Trump Tweets Details of U.S. -vs- China Status – Talks Resume, Tariffs Remain, Ag Purchases and Non-NatSec Tech

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

On 6/28/2019 at 5:14 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

The Orange Man Bad filter can be difficult to break through.

As can the Orange man Good filter...

At least you don't like Fox, we can agree about that.

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

15 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

On pins and needles this weekend, waiting to see if Trump can actually pull this off...

 

 

 

No chance.  That would require Kim to go away.

[John Foote + 1,135]

There hasn't been diddly really accomplished, Kim still has his handful of small half assed nukes, and knows using one ends life there so they won't be. What is going on is a circus, but perception is reality in some things, politics among them, and if this brings down the rhetoric and chills things, great.

The North Korean forces are so heavily pre-deployed for a attack, pulling back the conventional forces would be relatively easy, and a great meaningful thing. 

Aligning with USSR, and then China, and then their own version of whatever they do. Look at what has happened to the North and South since 1950. If you ever needed dynamic evidence aligning with the USA is better than old school communists, that is it.

Since the USSR went broke and the Berlin Wall feel, countries either align with the western financial models, or they don't. China is big enough to sort of break the rules, but other than that, countries that don't essentially follow western money rules are left quite poor, the exception being the odd extraction based economy (classically oil or gas). Closed, subsidized industries just don't cut it any more.

[Yoshiro Kamamura + 274]

Not only you can agree with both liberals and conservatives, you can agree both with Fox News and North Korean state TV - they both use the same rhetorics!

https://youtu.be/il-22Q8mECc

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

NEC Director Larry Kudlow Discusses U.S-China Negotiation Restart

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow on the U.S.-China trade talks where recontact has been established and now officially restarted. As noted, President Trump is in no hurry; the status-quo is leverage in our favor.

Additionally Director Kudlow discusses the potential benefits of the USMCA trade deal and whether the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates.

Regarding “inflation” these pundits just don’t get it.  For over three years CTH has been explaining how President Trump’s maganomic policy would reverse three decades of stagnant Main Street economic growth.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) consistently confirms our earlier predictions releasing data where inflation is essentially nonexistent.

Since the mid-to-late 1980’s the U.S. economy split into two divergent economic engines. One traditional engine powered by Main Street, and a second engine powered by Wall Street.  For thirty-plus years the distance between those engines was growing as federal monetary policy provided low interest rate support for investment, but the end destination for the investment was NOT in the U.S. [Hence, globalism]

For more than 30 years monetary policy has been driven by Wall Street influence.  FED interest rates made borrowing cheap, but the money -the actual investment itself- flowed out of the United States.  The end product from the investment, steered by multinationals, created products overseas.  Within this flow of capital there was no benefit to Main Street.

President Trump’s America-First policy has reversed the dynamic.   As a result of his focus and demand, the end product(s) from capital investment are now here in the U.S.A.

The MOUSE is money or investment. The CHEESE is end products, manufactured stuff.

Rather than beg the Wall Street investment mouse to change direction in the manufacturing maze, president Trump has simply moved the cheese to Main Street.  The mouse’s travel changed accordingly.

...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Now It Makes Sense – Beijing Assigned Hardline Trade Handler to Vice-Premier Liu He

Posted by sundance

We had to wait a few weeks to see how the Beijing communists and Xi Jinping hardliners were positioned for new trade talks; and now things make sense.

Initially it seemed at odds with Beijing’s prior position to restart U.S-China trade negotiations with Vice-Premier Liu He.  The prior three months of negotiation came to a collapse when Beijing resoundingly rejected the trade terms organized by Liu He.  If the Red Dragon was so opposed to conciliatory terms, why would team Xi restart with the same negotiator?  Now it makes sense, they didn’t.

China’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan has been assigned the role to harden the position of the communist regime and override any panda presentations by Liu He.  Vice-Premier Liu retains the panda mask, but Zhong is the ultimate control agent.  The message within Zhong’s placement tells the true nature of the Chinese position: Trade War !

Beijing attempts to downplay the position of their hard-line commerce addition, but the reality of the re-started trade discussions tells a more fulsome story.  Chairman Xi took the strategically presented bait and is going to engage in full confrontational trade war with President Trump and the U.S. team.

 

... Ultimately an openly hostile and aggressive position by China is exactly what President Trump would prefer.  Pretense is a painstakingly annoying negotiation strategy and President Trump is pre-disposed to be a notoriously ‘get-to-the-nub-of-it’ type of negotiator.  Down South the term would be: ‘he doesn’t suffer fools’.

The current status-quo, where international investment is paused to wait and see what happens (while corporations make alternate plans), is buckets more favorable to President Trump than Chairman Xi.  Essentially, the current stalemate has nimble companies departing China, the Belt-and-Road initiatives shrinking and Beijing is burning through cash to subsidize their current manufacturing base. [The currency devaluation is ongoing]

Existing tariffs remain a financial drain on China, not U.S. consumers. In actuality U.S. inflation continues to decline. Meanwhile President Trump is hitting Xi with public questions about Beijing purchasing U.S. agricultural products; a previous promise.

In actuality President Trump knows the purchase promises were the typical false-promises of Beijing; but, well, the lies have a value in calling out Panda’s duplicity.

The potential tariffs (25 percent on $300+ billion in goods) sit on the table as a weapon President Trump would love to start using.  However, in the dance with the dragon Lighthizer and Ross have to wait to allow the panda mask to fully drop.  Currently Chairman Xi Jinping is trying to keep the financial/investment class from noticing the panda mask is slipping.  However, that ruse can’t last too much longer.  Thus the dance continues.

At the 30,000/ft level China appears to have accepted that President Trump isn’t going to concede an inch. Therefore their position in the trade stand-off is timed to exhaust around the 2020 presidential election.  Despite what the U.S. media are claiming, Beijing is making very visible moves to withstand more than a year of status quo strain.

[John Foote + 1,135]

As a great workaround, in the USA you are going to see the development of "Free Trade Zones" to the Chinese stuff and go in and out. 

With the right lobbying you can get the waivers.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

On 7/17/2019 at 2:17 AM, John Foote said:

As a great workaround, in the USA you are going to see the development of "Free Trade Zones" to the Chinese stuff and go in and out. 

With the right lobbying you can get the waivers.

Saw the following article this morning.  I've been reading Sundance at Conservative Tree House for quite a while, and I'm waiting to see his take on this latest twist, maybe tomorrow.  Meantime, article from Washington Examiner:

US blacklists state-owned Chinese oil trader for flouting Iran sanctions

President Trump’s administration is sanctioning a state-owned Chinese company for flouting sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.

“They violated US law by accepting crude oil,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced Monday at the VFW National Convention. “We’ve said all along that any sanctions will indeed be enforced.”

Chinese ports have been stockpiling Iranian oil in storage tanks owned by Tehran without finalizing the sales, in an apparent effort to avoid triggering U.S. sanctions. Pompeo’s announcement targets Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, the Beijing-based trading company most responsible for China’s relationship with Iran’s oil industry.

“We can’t tolerate more money going to the ayatollah, putting American soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines, putting their lives at risk,” Pompeo said. “It’s too important.”

The announcement is a positive signal for Iran hawks on Capitol Hill, following reports that the administration might allow China and Iran to sidestep sanctions by using oil as a form of payment in exchange for Chinese investment. Trump’s enforcement of sanctions on Iran has jolted the U.S. relationship with China over the last year, as moves to punish Chinese telecommunications giants ZTE and Huawei roiled trade negotiations.

The latest sanctions designation comes as the two sides are trying to jump-start talks following Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 Summit in Japan.  ...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

It really is amusing to watch MSM totally freak out over the latest tariffs against China by Trump.  I view this trade war as a good thing, with the U.S. finally pushing back against China taking advantage.  Obviously, most others do not view this trade war as good.  We shall see.

China refuses to negotiate in good faith, and are trying to wait out Trump in the hope that Trump is not re-elected down the road.  Good luck with that strategy, Xi, because China just got hammered in the trade war.  Again.  By Trump.  And it is set to continue getting far, far worse for Xi and China until China starts playing fair. 

The China military gathering near Hong Kong to quash dissent will likely backfire on mainland China.

Anyway, here is another update, excerpt below, full article in the link:

Following Debrief President Trump Announces 10% Additional Tariff on $300 Billion of Chinese Goods

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin returned from two days of talks in Shanghai on Thursday.  After debriefing President Trump on the results the president announced a decision to apply a 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese products.

This announcement would answer the question of whether the Chinese were willing to restart discussions from the previous point of contention.  Obviously they are not.

The Wall Street financial/investment class will go bananas.  U.S. based multinationals who have invested massively in Chinese manufacturing are apoplectic.  The ‘Wall Street’ -vs- Main Street battle now enters a new phase of confrontation and adversarialism.

As we have discussed, President Trump consistently implied he did not see how any deal with China is possible unless they were willing to fundamentally restructure their trade position. It has been clear -validated by the G20 outcome- that President Trump is not going to accept anything less than a full and complete structural change in the U.S. trade position with China. Lighthizer’s severe compliance and enforcement clauses, specific to each unique trade sector, are non-negotiable.

There was always only a very small chance a trade deal with China will be reached. The reforms within the original Lighthizer and Vice-Premier Liu He agreement were antithetical to Beijing. Chairman Xi Jinping and the communist politburo rejected them.

For Beijing the compliance and enforcement sections within the agreement were too severe and did not allow China to retain control over the trade terms.

The agreement was rejected.

President Trump understands Chairman Xi is looking at this as a zero-sum position. As we stated earlier, it’s was not a matter of “if” Trump would apply more tariffs; it was always a matter of “when” Trump would apply the tariffs.  ...

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure

The White House
Office of the Press Secretary
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 1, 2019

REMARKS BY PRESIDENT TRUMP
BEFORE MARINE ONE DEPARTURE

South Lawn
3:47 P.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT: Yes.

Q Mr. President, why the tariffs against China now? And are you concerned about the nosedive the Dow took today as a result?

THE PRESIDENT: No, I'm not concerned about that at all. I expected that a little bit because people don't understand quite yet about what's happened.

We've taxed China on 300 billion dollars' worth of goods and products being sold into our country. And China eats it because they have to pay it. Because what they do is they devalue their currency and they push money out.

Our people haven't paid, as you know. We're also charging them 25 percent on $250 billion. So we're taking in many billions of dollars. There's been absolutely no inflation. And frankly, it hasn't cost our consumer anything; it costs China.

Now, what has happened is a lot of companies are moving out of China so they can, you know, avoid. And China has had a rough twenty- -- this is their worst year in 27 years, according to yesterday's Wall Street Journal. I don't want that.

But when my people came home, they said we're talking. We have another meeting in early September. I said, "That's fine." But in the meantime, until such time as there's a deal, we'll be taxing them.

...

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

This ... is just hilarious.  China is losing big time, so they complain and cry foul.

Russia's Sputnik reports:

China Says US Tariffs 'Not Constructive' Way to Resolve Trade Dispute - Report

US President Donald Trump has vowed to continue "taxing" China until a trade deal is reached. Trump earlier pledged to impose an additional 10 percent tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

The Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, said Friday that tariffs are "not a constructive" way to solve the US trade war, AFP reported.

"Slapping on tariffs is definitely not a constructive way to resolve economic and trade frictions, it's not the correct way", Wang said on the sidelines of a meeting of Southeast Asia's top diplomats in Thailand, according to AFP.

Beijing and Washington have been engaged in a trade war since June 2018, when Trump announced he was imposing tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports in a bid to balance the trade deficit. Since then, the two countries have introduced several rounds of reciprocal tariffs.

In June, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a 90-day truce during which they would refrain from imposing additional tariffs and re-launch negotiations in an attempt to resolve the trade war.

The first bilateral trade talks since the G20 summit wrapped up in Shanghai on Wednesday, attended by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. Vice Premier Liu He was the lead negotiator for China. According to media reports, official negotiations ended 40 minutes ahead of schedule with no follow-up briefing, causing many to speculate that the parties had failed to achieve success.

On Wednesday, the White House said that the United States and China would continue trade negotiations in September in Washington.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

A slight change up from the Conservative Tree House theme.

Here is a 1 hour video of Bannon absolutely hammering away at China, and highlighting many points that Mainstream Media refuse to touch.

Relevant to the latest round of U.S. tariffs.

I assure you, MSM disinfo bread and circuses pablum will not provide you with the cerebral food for thought that this 1 hour monologue will.

Skip the first 12 minutes of intro, and I invite you to pay attention to Bannon poking some very powerful sacred cows, and hopefully raise your awareness of global points that are deliberately not covered by MSM. 

Sorry, no tl;dr short version.

Stephen K. Bannon Hammers China in Hokkaido Japan | YouTube

 

 

@Jan van Eck  you will likely find this video interesting, as you went to Ivy League, understand economics, and have a seriously high IQ over 150  (mine is only 146).  And as an avowed monarchist, you are not tied to the typical left / right / Democrat / Republican biases prevalent in many U.S. discussions.

You may not agree with Bannon's points.  But I believe the points raised are pretty devastating.  If you can take the time to watch this 1 hour monologue (skip the first 12 minutes intro), I would be very much interested in your opinion on Bannon's world view regarding China's economic warfare.

[Boat + 1,323]

Tom, Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan among others have pointed out the mistake to grow trade with  countries that are not our friends for many decades. This is not new news. Politicians bought off by money have always guided US policy for the most part. 

Normally the blame for all that is wrong with America is poor people wanting free stuff and clean water and air to enjoy that stuff in. Glad to see some of the red right throw the blame at the Chinese in a brief moment of thoughtfulness.

I personally would like to see the free world phase out trade with Russia, China, Iran, N Korea etc. Otherwise are we not aiding the enemy?

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

Boat, China wants to take over the "free world" and aren't making any attempt to hide their plans.

In the context of the topic of this thread (Trump vs. Xi trade war) I think that China is caught off guard that Trump is standing up to China's world economic conquest plans.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

In the context of the topic of this thread (Trump vs. Xi trade war) I think that China is caught off guard that Trump is standing up to China's world economic conquest plans.

There can be no serious dispute that China is caught off-guard. But to say that Trump is "standing up to China's world economic conquest plans" is a stretch.  I see no evidence that Trump is thinking in those terms.  The Donald is impulsive and has a low attention span for details. He just shoots from the hip on his gut feelings.  What those gut feelings are, remains unclear.  For all anybody knows, it is an exercise in personal ego inflation.  

Getting past that, I really don't think that The Donald thinks in those terms. At some point he became infatuated with the idea of tariffs; how he got there is not known.  Once there, and noting the reaction it got, he stays with the tactic.  I personally think it is a logical and viable approach, far better than the TPP folly that his predecessors were pushing, but to suggest that he got there by some intellectual analysis is stretching it.  My guess is that Trump simply stumbled into the use of tariffs. He tends to stick with "what works," and the tariffs are undeniably pushing the heavy-industry jobs in steel and aluminum back inside the USA. 

The claim is made by secondary users that the tariffs are "a throwback to the causes of the Great Depression" and increase internal (USA) costs.  There is no evidence of that.  Tariffs exclude dumping and predatory pricing from outsiders.  The US market internally is so huge that it can run just fine without any foreign goods at all, although the exotic would be off-market and overall consumer choice would be slightly limited.  Can Americans live nicely without the ability to purchase an Aston Martin Vanquish?  Sure they can, albeit with that item of choice removed. 

China today dominates the bicycle parts industry.  It does that exclusively on price.  Can Americans manufacture bicycle pedals and gears?  Of course they can.  Might end up costing a tad more, but then again, nobody really knows, as CNC production machinery has never been used inside the USA to produce bicycle gears.  Are we going to find out?  Sure looks like it.  That 25% is going to include bicycle parts!  To think that that does not provide an impetus to domestic entrepreneurs to get into that game would be naive.  Americans are a clever, dynamic people. You already know that new domestic factories are going to spring up, as long as the capital is available.  And Trump instinctively knows that; he has seen that in the NYC real estate business.  Cheers. 

[Illurion + 894]

On 6/25/2019 at 5:04 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

As the political and trade games between Trump and Xi (and a side game of North Korea) continue on, thought I would share regular updates from Conservative Tree House, as an alternative to the amusingly off-base Mainstream Media, for your consideration.

While I fully expect that most will not agree with CTH analysis on this political and trade chess game between Trump and Xi, hopefully a few lurkers may realize that there are far better opinions and viewpoints than what is generally presented on MSM such as CNN and Washington Post.  Fox News is mostly crap in my opinion as well, just another form of disinformation - but with a conservative disinformation slant rather than a liberal disinformation slant.

Hello Tom:

It has been a while since i could use my computer,  much less log in and comment.... 

Of the ongoing discussions on the site,  this one i find the most interesting at the moment.

I have read the whole thread,  and will now come back and make a few comments...

But first,  i would like to state that i like your new avatar photo...  Not that there was anything wrong withe the old photo.   This new one of you is more formal,  and looks good.

As for what you wrote above,  i agree with you 100% about FOX.... I watch none of the fake news outlets that are collectively called the msm,  and i consider FOX to be one of them.   I stopped watching FOX during the summer of 2016 when it became apparent that they were anti-Trump,  and pro-Cruz.

I very much like the Conservative Tree House,  as they give a more in-depth explanation on things...  They don't just say WHAT they believe,  they say WHY they believe it....

And i have found their general reasoning to be sound.

[Illurion + 894]

On 6/28/2019 at 10:19 PM, Jan van Eck said:

There is one tidbit from the election campaign (2016) that sticks in my mind.  At one point Mr. Trump had declared that he would go anywhere and meet with anyone, specifically including US enemies and Mr. Kim Jong Un, to advance American interests, which were broadly defined to include defusing war situations.  When the questioner turned to Mrs. Clinton, asking is she would meet with Mr. Kim, the emphatic answer was:  "Absolutely not!"  Then there was some comment about "demeaning the Presidency" and not granting allure or limelight status to reprehensible figures.  

The upshot of that was that Mrs. Clinton would end up perpetuating a state of frozen war, literally forever, and Mr. Trump was the man who saw past that and found the breakthrough. 

I believe that Trump is doing the right thing trying to end the war,  and make a peace that removes NK as an enemy,  and could perhaps even result in a reunification of Korea.

BUT...

Remember,   that all through the 1940's, 50's, 60's, and early 70's,  CHINA was the CLOSED OFF country,   and it was NIXON "opening up" CHINA that has put us where we are now....    What Nixon started,  was followed by us allowing China into the IMF and WTO,  etc.,

AND THAT HAS NOT WORKED OUT VERY WELL FOR THE USA....

If Nixon were alive today,  i believe he would regret what he started with China.

 

But NK is NOT China....   If peace with NK is achieved,  i believe a future historian will not look back at it as having been an event that made things worse.

[Illurion + 894]

On 8/4/2019 at 1:39 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

Here is a 1 hour video of Bannon absolutely hammering away at China, and highlighting many points that Mainstream Media refuse to touch.

Stephen K. Bannon Hammers China in Hokkaido Japan | YouTube

 

 

@Jan van Eck  you will likely find this video interesting, as you went to Ivy League, understand economics, and have a seriously high IQ over 150  (mine is only 146).  And as an avowed monarchist, you are not tied to the typical left / right / Democrat / Republican biases prevalent in many U.S. discussions.

You may not agree with Bannon's points.  But I believe the points raised are pretty devastating.  If you can take the time to watch this 1 hour monologue (skip the first 12 minutes intro), I would be very much interested in your opinion on Bannon's world view regarding China's economic warfare.

A good video.    Bannon is so sharp.   He has a way of succinctly explaining things with few big words,  step, by step, by step.   Painting the picture.    All the while,  he never bores you,  or loses your attention...   Al Haig was that way to...

Of particular interest to me from the Bannon video is the part where he discusses the importance of getting Russia on OUR SIDE against the Chinese global plans,  which does not appear to be happening.     

For example,  just a week or so ago,  both China and Russia flew a joint-flight of bombers and support aircraft over South Korean controlled air-space...

I believe that was done to "explain" to us that our attempts to separate the Russians from the Chinese isn't happening...

But then what do i know.

[Illurion + 894]

On 8/4/2019 at 5:42 AM, Boat said:

Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan among others have pointed out the mistake to grow trade with  countries that are not our friends for many decades. This is not new news. Politicians bought off by money have always guided US policy for the most part. 

I personally would like to see the free world phase out trade with Russia, China, Iran, N Korea etc. 

The USA did very little trade with the USSR or China until Nixon opened China,  and the USSR fell and became Russia...

We started trade under the premise that "they would change"...

They didn't......

So Trump has begun the process of "closing the door" on trade with the above two.

What happens with NK is unpredictable at this time.   I think Kim wants to make peace,  but the Chinese will not let him.   In the end,  who Kim fears the most,  will win.

As for Ross Perot,   he was a good man,  i voted for him twice,  and was a county officer for his Reform Party.    Ross believed in TARIFFS...  He said they were the WALL THAT PROTECTED THE AMERICAN DREAM...

Trump is trying to resurrect those walls....the Tariff walls,  and the Physical wall on the Mexican Border.  Both are absolutely needed.

I also like Pat,  and was a county officer for him when he ran in the Presidential Primary so long ago.   But Pat has different beliefs than Ross.  Pat is an isolationist...

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

54 minutes ago, Illurion said:

Hello Tom:

It has been a while since i could use my computer,  much less log in and comment.... 

Of the ongoing discussions on the site,  this one i find the most interesting at the moment.

I have read the whole thread,  and will now come back and make a few comments...

But first,  i would like to state that i like your new avatar photo...  Not that there was anything wrong withe the old photo.   This new one of you is more formal,  and looks good.

As for what you wrote above,  i agree with you 100% about FOX.... I watch none of the fake news outlets that are collectively called the msm,  and i consider FOX to be one of them.   I stopped watching FOX during the summer of 2016 when it became apparent that they were anti-Trump,  and pro-Cruz.

I very much like the Conservative Tree House,  as they give a more in-depth explanation on things...  They don't just say WHAT they believe,  they say WHY they believe it....

And i have found their general reasoning to be sound.

Thanks for your kind words Illurion.  Welcome back.  I don't watch news on TV at all. 

Conservative Tree House is one of the first sites I generally go to every morning, and then straight to the deep dive of the news summary / notables compiled by anons over on 8chan (totally uncensored, and the polar opposite of Mainstream Media).

CTH is good at explaining their viewpoints, and they generally do not see eye to eye with disinformation info-tainment like CNN, ABC, NBC, Fox, etc.

Happy you watched the Bannon video.  Yes, I know its an hour long, but it is well worth the time to watch and understand the underlying strategy of the trade war.  The video was from March, so it is a bit dated.

I was a bit concerned that this thread was turning into a monologue, but I keep updating it mostly for curious lurkers, to gently nudge lurkers to question MSM narrative.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

39 minutes ago, Illurion said:

If Nixon were alive today,  i believe he would regret what he started with China.

No, he would not.  Neither would I. 

And the reason is that you do not appreciate just how dangerous China was at that time.  It was being run by a committee of total lunatics.  They were quite prepared to start and carry on a full-blown nuclear war.  Mao and his guys actually believed that they could take a nuclear war, with waves of exchanges, and come out the victor at the end.  So they were ready to go for it.  the push towards that war was Vietnam. 

Nixon defused that war impulse by opening up the US market to China.  then China decided internally to become the workshop of the world, instead of the primer of nuclear war.  Nixon knew the trade-off would be some hits to low-wage sectors of US manufacturing, which was over-priced at that time relative to value produced:  clothing, shoes, toys, some iron castings, that sort of thing.  He took those hits but kept them in line with US tariffs. 

It was the later Presidents who started doing those "free trade" deals and tariff removals that fired up the big engine inside China.  Not Nixon.  What he did was really, really smart.  He diverted the impulses of crazy people to start and conduct nuclear war or wars. 

[Illurion + 894]

On 8/4/2019 at 8:28 AM, Jan van Eck said:

There can be no serious dispute that China is caught off-guard. But to say that Trump is "standing up to China's world economic conquest plans" is a stretch.  I see no evidence that Trump is thinking in those terms.  The Donald is impulsive and has a low attention span for details. He just shoots from the hip on his gut feelings.  What those gut feelings are, remains unclear. 

Getting past that, I really don't think that The Donald thinks in those terms. At some point he became infatuated with the idea of tariffs; how he got there is not known. 

My guess is that Trump simply stumbled into the use of tariffs. He tends to stick with "what works," and the tariffs are undeniably pushing the heavy-industry jobs in steel and aluminum back inside the USA. 

 Americans are a clever, dynamic people. You already know that new domestic factories are going to spring up, as long as the capital is available.  And Trump instinctively knows that; he has seen that in the NYC real estate business.  Cheers. 

I believe that there is a great mis-impression of how Trump operates.

In many ways,  Trump is like Reagan was,   

Reagan had CLEAR CORE BELIEFS......  He knew what he wanted to do,  and he HIRED PEOPLE TO DO THOSE THINGS........  In other words,   he DELEGATED.... 

Trump is the same way,   BUT,   Trump has a problem that Reagan did not have.....

That problem is the DEEP STATE..........   

Trump makes decisions,  and gives orders,  AND THE DEEP STATE REFUSES TO CARRY OUT HIS ORDERS,  OR PERVERTS THOSE ORDERS IN SUCH A WAY THAT THEY DO NOT REACH THEIR GOAL....