EIA reports 12 mm bbls U.S. Inventory draw . . . . NO BIG DEAL . . . because U.S. EXPORTED RECORD 12 MILLION BARRELS DAY OF CRUDE + PETROLEUM PRODUCTS ! ! ! THAT'S HUGE !

(edited)

EIA REPORT FOR WEEK ENDING JUNE 21, 2019

Inv draw for week June 21 = 12 mm

Exports increase 3.4 mm/DAY X 7 DAYS = 23.8 mm bbls increased exports

That is an increase/additional 23 mm bbls NOT sold by OPEC LAST WEEK. . . . . US Shale is eating OPEC's lunch.

OPEC needs to cut more than 1.2 mm

_____________________________

12 mm inv draw FOR THE WEEK

vs

23.8 increase exports FOR THE WEEK

Thankyou Iran, happy to take your business. 

US asked Saudis to fill the void left from Iranian sanctions. Saudis said No. They want $85 bbl. Sorry.

OPEC KEEP CUTTING .  U.S. HAS THREE NEW PERMIAN PIPELINES SOON.

Notice the WTI vs Brent price gap has come down from approx $10 high last week to around $7. . . . Going to $3 to $4

Brent price will stall soon. After the trade deal hype fades, Iran war worries die, traders realize rig count is useless and most important markets realize supply will continue to outstrip demand Brent will drift to sub $60 levels. Give it 4 to 6 months.

 

 

Edited by Falcon
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Ok that report was conducted back in February 2018. Released in May 2018.    

I've already said this last year!!!!   Its the plan.  Read these posts.

I joined Oil Price back in October 2018. My first post was: 

USA to be dominate oil producers  (oct 29,2018)
OPEC is collapsing (Nov 7, 2018)
Quatar out of Opec 2019 (dec 12, 2018)

Watch. By mid 2019 Alaska will come out of no where with exporting US crude. December is the month that www.BLM.gov will be holding sales for land lease drill rights. Plus having Alaska drilling rights finalized by mid 2019 the pipelines will be flowing.

U.S. Approves $3.2B Appalachian Natural Gas Pipeline  (OilPrice Headline 3/1/19)

PDVSA Declares Emergency On Tanker Fleet By Irina Slav - Mar 07, 2019, 9:30 AM CST

So what I am saying is that this the plan destroy the power of OPEC and make USA the oil powerhouse (albeit for a few years).  Look who is drilling in Alaska on Gull Island.  

I have a strong feeling that come the year 2023 there will be a huge environmental catastrophe created in Alaska to dwarf the Exxon Valdez one and blame it on the current sitting President at that time. President Trump will be in office come 2023 and be blamed for it due to the fact that he Executive Ordered drilling rights in USA again back in Jan 2018.  Then the election of 2024 will bring in a change of guard for a Dem controlled government. Rinse and repeat the cycle again. And here we go around on the merry "we" go around again.

 

So my advice is to take the time and look as US oil stocks and find which ones will work for your portfolio.

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1 hour ago, Falcon said:

EIA REPORT FOR WEEK ENDING JUNE 21, 2019

Inv draw for week June 21 = 12 mm

Exports increase 3.4 mm/DAY X 7 DAYS = 23.8 mm bbls increased exports

That is an increase/additional 23 mm bbls NOT sold by OPEC LAST WEEK. . . . . US Shale is eating OPEC's lunch.

OPEC needs to cut more than 1.2 mm

_____________________________

12 mm inv draw FOR THE WEEK

vs

23.8 increase exports FOR THE WEEK

Thankyou Iran, happy to take your business.  US asked Saudis to fill the void left fro Iranian sanctions they said No. They want $85 bbl. Sorry.

Fine, Shale producers welcome the business.

OPEC KEEP CUTTING .  U.S. HAS THREE NEW PERMIAN PIPELINES SOON.

Notice the WTI vs Brent price gap has come down fromapprox $10 high last week to around $7. . . . Going to $3 to $4

Brent price will stall soon. After the trade deal hype fades, Iran war worries die, traders realize rig count is useless and most important markets realize supply will continue to outstrip demand Brent will drift to sub $60 levels. Give it a few months at most

 

I agree, so the 12 mil draw is a false number designed to move oil markets UP, so that US rigs will get in on the deal and drive price back down, making it harder for Sauds to compete.

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(edited)

On 6/26/2019 at 4:14 PM, Markmano said:

I agree, so the 12 mil draw is a false number designed to move oil markets UP, so that US rigs will get in on the deal and drive price back down, making it harder for Sauds to compete.

The Saudis will always compete. Lifting costs only $2 bbl.

The question is can The House of Saud survive from internal opposition when Brent settles in $50 range.

The world oil markets do not trade on fundamentals anymore (supply vs demand, plus cost of production). This will soon change.

Orbital Insight Corp satellite survey shows 143 mm bbl increase since OPEC CUTS STARTED.  NO TIGHT SUPPLY.

Instead traders focus on US Inventory (1) with complete disregard to changes in Refinery production, Exports, Weather, Maintenance, etc (2) and completely oblivious to the other world non-US inventory, the other 88% of the world.

Last week increased exports almost 24 million bbls.  That's 24 mm less that OPEC + is NOT selling.

This is just the start.

Edited by Falcon
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2 hours ago, Falcon said:

EIA REPORT FOR WEEK ENDING JUNE 21, 2019

Inv draw for week June 21 = 12 mm

Exports increase 3.4 mm/DAY X 7 DAYS = 23.8 mm bbls increased exports

That is an increase/additional 23 mm bbls NOT sold by OPEC LAST WEEK. . . . . US Shale is eating OPEC's lunch.

OPEC needs to cut more than 1.2 mm

_____________________________

12 mm inv draw FOR THE WEEK

vs

23.8 increase exports FOR THE WEEK

Thankyou Iran, happy to take your business.  US asked Saudis to fill the void left fro Iranian sanctions they said No. They want $85 bbl. Sorry.

Fine, Shale producers welcome the business.

OPEC KEEP CUTTING .  U.S. HAS THREE NEW PERMIAN PIPELINES SOON.

Notice the WTI vs Brent price gap has come down fromapprox $10 high last week to around $7. . . . Going to $3 to $4

Brent price will stall soon. After the trade deal hype fades, Iran war worries die, traders realize rig count is useless and most important markets realize supply will continue to outstrip demand Brent will drift to sub $60 levels. Give it a few months at most

 

The US is a net oil importer. So why get excited when oil that has been imported gets resold? 

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(edited)

On 6/26/2019 at 5:20 PM, Boat said:

The US is a net oil importer. So why get excited when oil that has been imported gets resold? 

ITS ABOUT THE DELTA, THE CHANGE. With imports relatively unchanged from prior week the Huge INCREASE in exports came from US inventory. That draw WAS NOT due to decrease in US production , or increase in US gasoline consumption. It was mostly the result of a weekly INCREASE in US exports. That's 23 mm bbls additional crude/product put on world market outside of US. 

The question you should be asking is why are the WTI market bulls excited about 12 mm crude inventory draw sending prices up 2 to 3% when U.S. crude and petro product exports for the same week INCREASED 24 mm bbls. It's the Net World Inventory that counts.  Basic Math.

Saudis cutting JV Petrochemical deals as fast as they can all over the world.  They see the writing on the wall.  Chevron and Exxon  going more global with additional Petrochemical JV's. Captive market for their oil.  Smart. How long before the rest of OPEC realizes they are going to be holding their crude.

 

Edited by Falcon
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(edited)

On 6/26/2019 at 6:18 PM, Falcon said:

The question you should be asking is why are the WTI market bulls excited about 12 mm crude inventory draw sending prices up 2 to 3% when U.S. crude and petro product exports for the same week INCREASED 24 mm bbls. It's the Net World Inventory that counts.  Basic Math.

Thriving business US REFINED PRODUCTS EXPORTS.

Saudis cutting JV Petrochemical deals as fast as they can all over the world.  They see the writing on the wall.  Chevron and Exxon  going more global with additional Petrochemical JV's. Captive market for their oil.  Smart. How long before the rest of OPEC realizes they are going to be holding their crude.

 

 

Edited by Falcon

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