EIA Inventory up 9.5 mm - (3.7 mm distillate increase) - (2.9 mm export increase) - (? mm Cactus II Line Filling) = 3.9 mm increase U.S. Inventory over a week ? Big deal

(edited)

Oil traders are "creatures of habit" or "can't teach an old dog new tricks" or whatever you want.  

A storm in the Gulf of Mexico.  A transient event.  Big Deal.

Iran acting up.  Worse case scenario US bombs their oil infrastructure (which they won't) . .   Their oil exports already offline now.

OIL. . . trades on war/conflict , hype, stories, meaningless data points (U.S. rig count or 1 week inventory change of just 12℅ of World production).  

The oil markets are changing. . . . . the oilindustry analyst, journalist and market traders are NOT changing .  . .  .  . or at least not yet. I guess that would not be good for their jobs/careers. 

The old formula still works . .  .  . for now. 

As famous oil trader Andy Hall said ," Oil doesn't trade on fundamentals any more. It's like a self fulfilling prophecy". 

There are signs of markets starting to understand.  Markets will transition in 2020.  The build out of Permian pipelines and new U.S. export facilities will Rock the oil markets.  Then add substantial production from Brazil and Norway.

The smart oil companies (Chevron, Exxon, Oxy etc) and Trading Houses (Vitol, Trafigura, etc) know this and are well prepared.  

Markets will look different a year from now. 

Edited by Falcon

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(edited)

55 minutes ago, Falcon said:

Oil traders are "creatures of habit" or "can't teach an old dog new tricks" or whatever you want.  

A storm in the Gulf of Mexico.  A transient event.  Big Deal.

Iran acting up.  Worse case scenario US bombs their oil infrastructure (which they won't) . .   Their oil exports already stopped now.

OIL. . . trades on war/conflict , hype, stories, meaning less data points (U.S. rig count or 1 week inventory change of just 12℅ of World production).  

The oil markets are changing. . . . . the industry analyst and market traders are NOT changing.

The old formula still works . .  .  . for now. 

As famous oil trader Andy Hall said ," Oil doesn't trade on fundamentals any more. It's like a self fulfilling prophesy". 

There are signs of markets starting to understand.  Markets will transition in 2020.  The build out of Permian pipelines and new U.S. export facilities will Rock the oil markets.  Then add substantial production from Brazil and Norway.

The smart oil companies (Chevron, Exxon, Oxy etc) and Trading Houses (Vitol, Trafigura, etc) know this and are well prepared.  

Markets will look different a year from now. 

EIA are só off the mark it’s becoming a joke.

Yes the market will look different but do you wholeheartedly believe that US Shale is robust enough to sustain current performance and forecasts?

Would you invest your house on it??

US Shale is being portrayed as this mammothic sure thing and propped up by borrowed funding, each week we see articles on this platform and other news media organizations contradicting each other and often themselves.

As I get to see the news only online and not firsthand I don’t know what to believe.

But what I do believe is that US Shale in general is not a long term solution that I would be betting my house on and certainly wouldn’t be running my foreign policy on if I was POTUS (I’m not of course) plus if I was so damn sure about world domination because my back yard is so solid I wouldn’t be messing around in other neighborhoods causing havoc, why would I need to?

But that’s the plan isn’t it, weaken other neighborhoods so your own backyards blooms!! (Metaphorically speaking of course)

Next year or two long term will be interesting and short term also the geopolitical arena is certainly interesting.

@Falcon Not disagreeing with you just felt your post deserved my esteemed opinion 😆 

PS - Don’t let the AGW messiah’s hijack your long running and interesting posts, they are actively trolling debates that don’t include them but like any terrorist Organization will quickly bring down a debate and end it with their suicide bombers ladened with Kw of Destruction and inquisition style rhetoric  👊🏻

Edited by James Regan

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(edited)

8 hours ago, James Regan said:

EIA are só off the mark it’s becoming a joke.

Yes the market will look different but do you wholeheartedly believe that US Shale is robust enough to sustain current performance and forecasts?

Would you invest your house on it??

US Shale is being portrayed as this mammothic sure thing and propped up by borrowed funding, each week we see articles on this platform and other news media organizations contradicting each other and often themselves.

As I get to see the news only online and not firsthand I don’t know what to believe.

But what I do believe is that US Shale in general is not a long term solution that I would be betting my house on and certainly wouldn’t be running my foreign policy on if I was POTUS (I’m not of course) plus if I was so damn sure about world domination because my back yard is so solid I wouldn’t be messing around in other neighborhoods causing havoc, why would I need to?

But that’s the plan isn’t it, weaken other neighborhoods so your own backyards blooms!! (Metaphorically speaking of course)

Next year or two long term will be interesting and short term also the geopolitical arena is certainly interesting.

@Falcon Not disagreeing with you just felt your post deserved my esteemed opinion 😆 

PS - Don’t let the AGW messiah’s hijack your long running and interesting posts, they are actively trolling debates that don’t include them but like any terrorist Organization will quickly bring down a debate and end it with their suicide bombers ladened with Kw of Destruction and inquisition style rhetoric  👊🏻

"Your esteemed opinion" ? I do appreciate your thoughts..  . . . But esteemed ?

Shale is that strong.

I wouldn't invest in any oil firm, much less my house.  The days of "INVESTING" in the oil industry are over. It is foolish.  It is a dying industry. Dying from the standpoint of gross margins.  Won't be long before Saudis will not be able to sell $2.00 oil for $100 ever again.  Their only hope is to start a 10 year war and pump as much of their reserves as possible to avoid stranded assets. I wouldn't put it past them. They are very capable of doing just that.

Only way to invest in oil is buy a large firm for its dividend.  

Look at it as a 10 year bond with a dividend cashflow yield. Even that could be risky.

Would you buy stock in ARAMCO IPO ? Even a bigger joke. ARAMCO would never qualify for NY Exchange listing. Cant imagine their being transparent re inventory, exports, operations. Saudis should have listed when they had chance, before the smart money figured them out.

I WOULD AND DO TRADE THE OIL FUTURES.  

OIL IS NOT FOR INVESTMENT ANYMORE . . .  ONLY TO TRADE NOW.

Oil has not traded on fundamentals for a while now , but I can still trade on the emotional misplaced understanding of the global market. The trading patterns haven't changed yet. If the herd still trades on rig count,  al-Khalid statement or Iran saber rattling . . . .  go along for the ride.  Just be aware it will change in 2020 (if not sooner)

Fundamentals in oil industry will return in 2020.

I agree with you, EIA reports are a joke. But it's better than nothing. It is based on a survey they send out. People, Companies, Investors and Industry Associations have an agenda and self interest , they shade the truth. Not very scientific.  

API is a bigger joke  . . . they have an agenda.  

The ONLY inventory report that comes somewhat close to establishment of World and Regional Inventory is Orbital Insight Corp reports.  Even that is far from perfect. 

 

 

 . .

Edited by Falcon
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