Renewables provided only about 4% of total global energy needs in 2018

[remake it + 288]

6 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Tom, you will notice that I have scrupulously avoided making any responsive comment to Remake-it's post claiming "cultural elitism."  It is perfectly obvious that Remake did not read, nor understand, what it was that I wrote, and only saw what he thought I might have said, which was not at all what I said.

Completely wrong  - you proposed a solution which defied logic and continues to reinforce outmoded thinking.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

An economically weakening China will reveal the cracks in the foundation.

 

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

China will always try to play the 'long game'

I think what we all have to come to terms with is that the Chinese population are used to and can take a lot more abuse than Western populations. Western societies have piled up a lot of debt and a serious economic slow-down will take its toll on the West as well. I don't know who will hurt the most, but it won't be pretty here either. 

I don't have a solution, but for a long time I have felt that what really needs addressing is our consumerism - i.e. we buy the cheapest even if it is manufactured in China. I think we need to educate our youth to be more fiscally responsible and focus on buying more locally made products. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Suggesting that the continuing support of Chinese elitists interminably and forever is not such a great idea, and that one solution is to stop the mercantilist trade so that those Chinese, and the Communists and Party Leaders, can go back to being subsistence farmers is a perfectly sound solution.  You just stop doing business with those guys.  No need for military campaigns and shooting. 

It is crafting a policy that accomplishes this that is the challenge. I am not convinced tariffs are the rigth tool; at best they are a bridge and to be honest I think this is a big if. 

7 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

So, who can China sell to, besides the USA?  The Congo?  Ceylon? El Salvador? Nigeria? Italy?  Brasil?  Nope, those are not candidates: either they have no money, or they have their own manufacturing and are direct competitors. 

Whilst I agree I also think we should be careful to underestimate the potential of the developing world. 

 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

7 hours ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

It is crafting a policy that accomplishes this that is the challenge. I am not convinced tariffs are the rigth tool; at best they are a bridge and to be honest I think this is a big if. 

The other alternative is Quotas.  I am not a real fan of quotas, as placing them encourages price gouging of the Buyers.  A tariff levies a cost to all outside players who seek access to the US market.  I don't see Europe doing much in the way of tariffs (or quotas), but then again large portions of the EU market are stagnant as Europe itself has boxed itself into the doldrums, mostly due to fiscal and labor policies. 

Markets are funny things:  they tend to be inelastic once developed, as to certain volumes; thus artificial shortages generated by Quotas will tend to result in price rises.  In the longer term you will get rapid product substitution.  Take for example the development of alcohol as a fuels additive, to stretch the total volume of transportation fuel.  The policy resulted in very rapid construction of lots of corn-ethanol distillation facilities.  Now that ethanol is an established part of the industrial landscape, it is not easily displaceable by the next development, until policy starts to favor electric-battery transport. Have any alcohol distilleries out there been shut down yet?  Not that I know of. Those plants make lots of money - for now.  Institutional friction will provide a nice return for decades to come, I predict. 

Will there be rapid product substitution if the Strait of Hormuz shuts down?  Probably.  But since the only Quota out there is on Iranian oil, I predict trans-Saudi oil pipelines will be frantically constructed - just to retain market share.  Cheers.

[John Foote + 1,135]

On 7/22/2019 at 8:16 PM, Jan van Eck said:

So I predict that China will break apart. 

China has a multitude of problems, and the legacy of the one-child program has compounded. But fundamentally engineered, controlled economies over time do poorly. China has been subsidizing western consumer consumption for years. China is old on a scale westerners can't appreciate. They won't come apart like a western country, but they will return to inward and isolationists.

Unless, say the oil rich Arabian countries, they can feed themselves, so retreating from globalism won't end them. And the USA cheap shit from overseas will change. But the world will exist essentially fine.

[NickW + 2,714]

That % will keep going up. 

42 GW of wind capacity in construction phase in the USA alone. 

https://www.renewableenergymagazine.com/wind/record-us-wind-farm-development-driven-by-20190801