Consumers Aren't Crazy About Electric Vehicles

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Consumers-Arent-Crazy-About-Electric-Cars.html

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Absolutely no surprise to me.

[David Jones + 84]

On ‎8‎/‎2‎/‎2019 at 2:30 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

Absolutely no surprise to me.

The article in question is limited and draws the wrong conclusion. You should read the linked original post on the J.D Power website:

https://www.jdpower.com/business/press-releases/2019-mobility-confidence-index-study-fueled-surveymonkey-audience

I'm not sure if this is even representative for a global picture assuming that the 5000 or so people polled were not specifically chosen from a variety of countries but were basically a case of first come first serve on the internet. Either way, what it actually says is that first and foremost, only 32% of the people polled actually know what they are talking about since the rest have never had any experience with an EV. Those that have been in an EV have quite positive views of the technology.

Also, the requirements of the people polled are already met by most of the Tesla car models for instance (300 mile range and about 200 miles charged in about 15-20 minutes with v3 charging) the "low confidence" is directly related to the substandard offerings of legacy car companies up to now which should start to change over the next 5 years with some proper BEVs coming from legacy companies.

Anyone who follows EV developments is not at all surprised by the result of this survey. What it actually says is that even with the currently meagre EV offerings (other than Tesla) 40% of people would consider buying an EV. If this is to be understood as global market share potential, we are talking about potentially more than 30 million annual sales if so many EVs could be produced today which is more than an order of magnitude above the current production levels. That by the way is highly encouraging considering that EV technology will become far more capable over the next 5-10 years.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Nobody actually has any confidence in polls anymore. Ask the 'right' questions to a select group of the population and you can get any result that you desire.

I, on the other hand, simply listen to the cross section of the population I run across day to day. This generally consists of professionals in a variety of industries, people in the coffee shop or gym, and on weekends a bunch of motorcycle and car 'enthusiasts'.

Most of these folks are impressed by the performance (and instantaneous torque) of EV's, but still do not feel comfortable with the range, charging times and charging infrastructure.

Rightly or wrongly, this is what I am hearing. As these people represent the perspective consumers of EV's, unless this perception changes or they are forced to purchase EV's by some green governmental mandate, I would have to agree that "consumers are not crazy about electric cars".

[David Jones + 84]

16 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Nobody actually has any confidence in polls anymore. Ask the 'right' questions to a select group of the population and you can get any result that you desire.

I, on the other hand, simply listen to the cross section of the population I run across day to day. This generally consists of professionals in a variety of industries, people in the coffee shop or gym, and on weekends a bunch of motorcycle and car 'enthusiasts'.

Most of these folks are impressed by the performance (and instantaneous torque) of EV's, but still do not feel comfortable with the range, charging times and charging infrastructure.

Rightly or wrongly, this is what I am hearing. As these people represent the perspective consumers of EV's, unless this perception changes or they are forced to purchase EV's by some green governmental mandate, I would have to agree that "consumers are not crazy about electric cars".

Polls may or may not be accurate but it's certain that the impression from a local circle of people you know or run into is definitely false when applied to the broader world situation in terms of EV demand. ICEV enthusiasts are the last people I would expect to want an EV right now considering that there are aspects such as sound that are not the same for EVs but they are not the general population. As for industry professionals, if these are oil industry professionals I wouldn't expect them to like EVs either. In many cases, EVs are perceived as a threat judging by the obfuscated posts on this and other forums related to fossil fuels so again, this is not representative of actual demand for the technology.

However, charging capabilities and range will probably need a bit more improvement to provide a safety range so people can feel more comfortable although at the high end Tesla are already approaching 400 miles (if they used the Model 3 batteries I'm reasonably sure the Model S would be a +400 mile vehicle with even faster 0-200 mile charging than the 15-20 minutes of the M3 due to the larger battery size). My guess is that the people you talk to have not experienced a Model 3 with a v3 charger or possibly no Tesla vehicle at all in terms of daily use. It's considerably faster than the v2 variant but obviously it'll take a while for these to be available everywhere. Either way, it seems to me that both range and charging have been solved in general with the introduction of the aforementioned combo. The remaining element is price which should also fall over the next 10 years much as it has during the last 10 years. Others will catch up in the next 5-10 years so I expect these aspects to not be major dampeners on EV demand for very long since it's no longer a question of whether the above is technically possible, Tesla have shown that it is possible. Porsche for instance looks like they will be introducing a similarly capable technology this or next year with the Taycan.

One thing the government can and should do is support the necessary infrastructure. Infrastructure development is generally a good bet for any government and always has been.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

How can you possibly say that the opinion of a 'local circle of people you know or run into' is DEFINITELY false when applied to the broader global situation in regards to EV demand? This is just as valid as any poll.

Furthermore, I never claimed that these people are ICEV enthusiasts, you made that assumption. Do these people ride or drive ICEV's? Of course they do because here in Malaysia they really do not have an option considering availability and the local earning power.

When I mentioned industry professionals, you again made the assumption that these were oil industry professionals. To set the record straight, I am the only one even remotely associated with the oil industry. The others are IT, hotel, entertainment, publishing, etc... professionals.

These are the perspective consumers of EV's, and like it or not, this cross section is not convinced that EV's are developed enough, nor is the infrastructure, to entice them to switch from their ICEV's to EV's.

You have made so many erroneous assumptions based on my original post that I do not believe that you want to engage in a serious discussion, you are simply a cheerleader for EV's.

[David Jones + 84]

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

How can you possibly say that the opinion of a 'local circle of people you know or run into' is DEFINITELY false when applied to the broader global situation in regards to EV demand? This is just as valid as any poll.

You answered this question within your own post:

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Furthermore, I never claimed that these people are ICEV enthusiasts, you made that assumption. Do these people ride or drive ICEV's? Of course they do because here in Malaysia they really do not have an option considering availability and the local earning power.

The world is more diverse than whatever location you are at in Malaysia, the developed world can definitely afford EVs and Europe doesn't even require the range the US seems to want. A recent app released by Jaguar for the I Pace EV apparently shows that the average driving distance of the thousands of people using it is about 8 miles per day. It's possible the people purchased the EV because they know they don't drive very far but even if that were the case, people in then UK drove just over 7000 miles in 2017 on average which is more or less half of the driving people in the US tend to do. Again, any country by itself is not representative of global requirements for driving and a specific location within a country even less so.

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Furthermore, I never claimed that these people are ICEV enthusiasts, you made that assumption. Do these people ride or drive ICEV's?

I'm assuming that they are not all 20-30 years old and have not all have become car enthusiasts in the past 10 years. If they are older and have been car enthusiasts then they probably developed this enthusiasm during a time when EVs were literally non existent so their emotional connection would be in relation to ICEV specific quirks whether these are functionally important or not. Maybe I'm wrong but I think my chances are good that I've evaluated the situation correctly in this case.

6 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

When I mentioned industry professionals, you again made the assumption that these were oil industry professionals. To set the record straight, I am the only one even remotely associated with the oil industry. The others are IT, hotel, entertainment, publishing, etc... professionals.

Fair enough, however as you mentioned you are in Malaysia and that country is not particularly far along in the EV transition meaning that people are likely not well informed as to the convenience of actually owning an EV. Looks like about 30k EVs will be sold this year in a market of 3 million.

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

You have made so many erroneous assumptions based on my original post that I do not believe that you want to engage in a serious discussion, you are simply a cheerleader for EV's.

While I would never purchase an ICEV myself due to the many downsides that people apparently have gotten so used to that they do not notice any longer, I wouldn't consider myself an EV cheerleader either. EVs are simply the best technology I have seen so far in terms of potential. I certainly have an objective view of their capabilities vs ICEVs. Apparently you glossed over the actual numbers I mentioned and focused on what I said about your personal connections. Generally, I'm more interested in the capability of the technology as a replacement for ICEVs not about what people who have likely never owned an EV think they know about EVs but regardless, there's clearly a market for EVs and that market is growing quickly. The main issue right now are price for capabilities like those a Tesla Model 3 offers, not some lack of technological capability of EVs to provide decent range and charging. There's also to some extent an issue of infrastructure but not so much for Tesla vehicles.

As I said above range and charging are technically solved and the infrastructure is being built out as we discuss this here so whatever perceived issues people may think EVs have in general, these will not be issues for more than another 10-15 years. Since developments are fluid, more and more people will likely start jumping on the EV bandwagon as their price range is met over the course of the coming decade.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

Okay then, for the next 10-15 years while they sort out all of the issues presently inherent in EV's, the rest of us in the 'less than developed' countries will run around in/on our dependable and affordable ICEV's.