U.S. vs China: Total Trade War?!

[BigJets + 87]

20 hours ago, SKEP said:

Winning isn't just moving manufacturing back to US.

Winning is manufacturing anywhere but China.

This is War .  .  .  .  Economic War 

Disrupt energy trade as much as possible for China.  Their entire machine depends on it, and they depend on others for it.  This is war!

[BigJets + 87]

17 hours ago, SKEP said:

 

Cave and the Chinese Communist Party will eat US Lunch

 

This!!! so much this!  Don't cave, and win the 2020 election.  Watch China crawl to Trump. 

[Boat + 1,324]

What some are afraid of is the execution of the trade war and the consequences. GW had a 90% approval rating when attacking Afghanistan. But now? Only a few base hawks still recommend further military action. Trump now blames the wars on past presidents. It’s very early in this new round world conflict. It might be soon to predict how the history will be written. 

The real prize for the world is to put their people first and figure out new venues and rules to solve disputes. But don’t call that a new world order. Nope, can’t have that.

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/2/2019 at 10:05 AM, James Regan said:

These tariffs should not be understood as tarriffis as such, they are TAXES being placed on goods at the US Borders or Freeport’s (zones of agreement or cooperation) and will directly affect the US consumer which in turn will affect the distributor or manufacturer. Less capital to employ or develop products and most certainly no “special offer” prices.

Trump is Taxing the US Consumer...

Nike etc will never relocate to the USA...

 US will see very little if any price increases resulting from TARRIFS. 

Nike will see a hit off 10% off their US profits.  Ouch !  Shareholders won't be happy.  

If Nike wants to manufacture in China and fund the Chinese Communist Party go ahead.  But Nike Ltd headquartered in China is not a US company.  Its incorporated in China. The US owes them nothing.  

Don't come complaining to Trump about trade war.  Talk to your Chinese hosts.  Tell them your US holding company doesn't like paying 10% import duty on the full transfer price.

Maybe Nike thinks twice when they build their next mfg plant. Doesn't have to be in US .  .  .  .  just NOT in China.

US encouraged companies to continue this behavior when Trump passed a law allowing them to repatriate overseas profits without penalties.  It was sold as the money would come back to US and be invested in America.  Very little investment happened.  I would allow repatriation but require a partial tax .  .  .  say 5%

Edited August 5, 2019 by SKEP

[Tommie77 + 29]

The main reason for the China-US trade imbalance is simple. Chinese people have a way lower standard of living and work harder than Americans. Therefore, companies in China spend less on wages. American consumers want products at the lowest possible price. So, who exactly is at fault here?

Would US consumers rather have 6.5x more expensive US laborers manifacture their goods?

Exchange rate manipulation is the other reason.

The issue here is that some Americans do not seem to agree that other nation states make money through their OWN workforce, without the US being able to fully exploit these foreign workers themself.

Sorry to bring the bad news, but all superpower nation states collapse in the end, so will the US. This is all part of that process. 

Edited August 5, 2019 by Tommie77

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Boat said:

What some are afraid of is the execution of the trade war and the consequences. GW had a 90% approval rating when attacking Afghanistan. But now? Only a few base hawks still recommend further military action. Trump now blames the wars on past presidents. It’s very early in this new round world conflict. It might be soon to predict how the history will be written. 

The real prize for the world is to put their people first and figure out new venues and rules to solve disputes. But don’t call that a new world order. Nope, can’t have that.

I put the people of China ahead of their government also, just as I put Americans, Iranians, Turks, Russians, and any other people ahead of their government. Especially when their governments are despotic rulers. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Tommie77 said:

The main reason for the China-US trade imbalance is simple. Chinese people have a way lower standard of living and work harder than Americans. Therefore, companies in China spend less on wages. American consumers want products at the lowest possible price. So, who exactly is at fault here?

Would US consumers rather have 6.5x more expensive US laborers manifacture their goods?

Exchange rate manipulation is the other reason.

The issue here is that some Americans do not seem to agree that other nation states make money through their OWN workforce, without the US being able to fully exploit these foreign workers themself.

Sorry to bring the bad news, but all superpower nation states collapse in the end, so will the US. This is all part of that process. 

I probably have 30 pairs of shoes that were made in China. I would much rather pay more and have them made in any other country, but preferably in America, Canada or Mexico. We need strong and prosperous neighbors to our north and south.  

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

5 hours ago, SKEP said:

US will see very little if any price increases resulting from TARRIFS. 

That certainly was not true with industrial goods such as rolled steel and aluminum ingots and plate.  Those prices did go up about 25% on the industrial level, the most dramatic part of which was the immediate opening and firing up of many, many aluminum pot and cast lines and lots of steel including older shuttered plants coming back on-line and hiring back their workforce.  So, on the manufacturing level, there were price increases, but also positive benefits to US industry. 

[Boat + 1,324]

4 hours ago, Tommie77 said:

The main reason for the China-US trade imbalance is simple. Chinese people have a way lower standard of living and work harder than Americans. Therefore, companies in China spend less on wages. American consumers want products at the lowest possible price. So, who exactly is at fault here?

Would US consumers rather have 6.5x more expensive US laborers manifacture their goods?

Exchange rate manipulation is the other reason.

The issue here is that some Americans do not seem to agree that other nation states make money through their OWN workforce, without the US being able to fully exploit these foreign workers themself.

Sorry to bring the bad news, but all superpower nation states collapse in the end, so will the US. This is all part of that process. 

Over 30 years ago my peers were discussing trade with underdeveloped countries. Our sense of fairness in competition included a major upgrade in safety, healthcare and wages. We felt back then we wouldn’t mind competing against the world. Well that didn’t happen as governments and corporations and shareholders pocketed the money and exploited much of the poor.

To here today’s spin it’s the poor abusing the system and pocketing the money. Lol  Then you wonder why there is a sense of unrest. 

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 8/3/2019 at 2:00 PM, James Regan said:

Ward - Better you guys were colonized mainly by the Brits, take a look around the globe most of our colonies are fairly orderly. Liberia is awesome 👏

We didn't "colonize" Liberia, we tried to dump off a lot of slaves to self rule. Nation building has never been our strong suit. We keep ignorantly assuming that ignorant populations will see the genius of democracy and self rule, and the minute we leave it's replaced by dictatorships or anarchy. 

I could pick on India / Pakistan or much of Africa. I still remember watching Zulu warriors with spears going up against British tanks as a child and thinking it couldn't be real. There's plenty of places the Brits left a big mess. 

[SKEP + 229]

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

That certainly was not true with industrial goods such as rolled steel and aluminum ingots and plate.  Those prices did go up about 25% on the industrial level, the most dramatic part of which was the immediate opening and firing up of many, many aluminum pot and cast lines and lots of steel including older shuttered plants coming back on-line and hiring back their workforce.  So, on the manufacturing level, there were price increases, but also positive benefits to US industry. 

Of course. China was dumping aluminum and steel on US Markets at below cost.

Your not suggesting US should let that happen ? 

I'm not talking about dumping.  You have to differentiate.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

12 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Of course. China was dumping aluminum and steel on US Markets at below cost.

Your not suggesting US should let that happen ? 

I'm not talking about dumping.  You have to differentiate.

You are focusing on China.  I would remind you that the USA takes in huge quantities of finished steel, in rolled, plate and pipe, from Canada.  Indeed, I think that some 97% of the output from the mills in Hamilton, Ontario goes to the USA, most of which is hot rolled steel to the US auto builders for their body-panel stamping plants. Those plants in Canada were assuredly not Dumping.  Also, Quebec and British Columbia I recall are huge suppliers to the USA of aluminum ingots, that took a price jump of 10% to US buyers.  And those plants also were not dumping. 

Was China dumping?  Sure it was.  But they were hardly the only suppliers. The tariffs hit everybody, I don't think that any country received a waiver up front, although apparently Canada eventually did receive waivers.  [You may recall the comments of Premier Trudeau to the Canadian public, which were intended for internal consumption only by Canadians, were picked up by Trump while he was sitting on Air Force One after the G-20 conference in Quebec City, and he then made scathing remarks to and about Trudeau by twitter, immediately.  That kept the tariffs on Canadian exports far longer than it would otherwise have played out.  [Gotta be quiet around Trump, or he gets angry.  Nature  of the beast.]

Edited August 6, 2019 by Jan van Eck

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 hours ago, Ward Smith said:

There's plenty of places the Brits left a big mess.

Let's see:  the Balfour Declaration,  India-Pakistan Partition, Palestinian Mandate, South Africa, Kenya, Rhodesia, Uganda, those come to mind readily.  British Guyana? 

yup, lots of messes, most not cleaned up close to a century later. 

[tldpdb1 + 24]

On 8/3/2019 at 10:38 AM, Doyle Johnson said:

I want the price of crude oil to go up. Some say this cannot happen unless we sign a trade deal with China. I am not so sure about that, If you look at the top 10 items exported by China it would seem to me that these items could quite easily be procured from other developing countries ( some in our own hemisphere ) , China has a mostly mature infrastructure & a skilled, pushed, regimented, labor force, that is certainly an advantage, but there are 1.4 billion mouths to feed and the per capita income is only $17,760 vs $60,200 in the US.  70 % of China's power generation is from coal, if these top 10 export items are largely resourced from other countries it is likely that LNG would be the primary source of power generation. ( Coal is just to polluting). New infrastructure requirements would consume huge amounts of diesel fuel and other transportation fuels. I have a feeling that the longer China holds out on a trade deal the more they will be the long term loser, in the mean time these other re-sourcing countries will benefit from massive construction projects in order to provide the goods the US now imports from China.

Trump can kill several birds with one stone, He should entice, pressure, suggest, that many of the items now  produced in China be moved to newly constructed factories in Central America, complete with technical & basic education training schools.( paid for in large part by the large US importers of these top 10 imported items ) This strategy would also mitigate the number of illegals crossing into the US saving US taxpayers billions of $'s we are now spending on handling the affairs of illegal border crosser's . This plan will make to much sense for democrats, but even they would benefit ( especially the environmentalist ), as China would be burning much less of the planet polluting coal that currently powers their production.   

 Natural Gas, a by product of shale oil production @  $2.10 per BTU is below the cost to capture/transport/store  and is therefore flared into the atmosphere in West Texas ( what a shame ) when it could be used to CLEANLY power factories in our own hemisphere, namely Central America & Mexico, employ & advance people there and reduce our dependence on doing business with the communist, authoritarian government of China.

Doyle Johnson,

Oil investor   

Nice Post...No Illusions here, China is a Communist Dictatorship.  Why are we helping them grow and prosper?  They Frequently are trying to steal are advanced Technologies Just Like the Soviet Union Did.  We need to do the same thing to the Communist Dictatorship in China that we did to the Soviet Union.  Isolate them as much as possible till there is Political Change in the Country.  This will be very difficult to do but you got to start somewhere.

[tldpdb1 + 24]

On 8/2/2019 at 2:46 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

I realize that this is an oil forum, not a farming site. However, I am the product of a farm with oil on it. Before the oil was discovered, we almost perished anytime tariffs were introduced, because most leaders know that the Achilles Heel of American life is the family farm. President Xi visited an Iowa farm in 1985, then again in 2012. He fully understands this Achilles Heel. Watch how he responds: No Soybeans. No pork. No nothing from American farms. Farmers are independent--more so than oilmen, even. They don't want to be put on welfare. They're going to go broke in record numbers in 2019 and 2020. This tariff war is going to end badly. We in the oil field are losing Chinese market share to Putin and MbS. They are in the One-Belt, One-Road Initiative, the new Silk Road: all trade routes begin in China, meander through the Middle East, including Turkey, and most end in . . . . Russia. Putin and Xi signed an agreement with Pakistan, the same day Antonin Scalia died. Russia will build a pipeline through the backbone of Pakistan, all the way from Lahore to Karachi, and will share a warm water port on the Arabian Sea. The tariff-induced trade war is already catastrophic to the American farmer. It has injured American oil trade with China. These markets aren't easy to get back. It's very hard for American presidents and functionaries to understand the pain that they're causing; they think farm subsidies will take care of it. Farmers don't want welfare; they want free trade. Oilmen don't want welfare either; they just want a fair shake. I submit that when the president tweets out that oil prices are too high and Saudi Arabia reacts by dumping oil on the market, he has just shot down some of his best patriots--the independent oilmen who discovered how to drill out the shale. They're going broke, ladies and gentlemen, despite what others have written ad nauseum on these pages. Chevron, Exxon, Occidental will survive, but they're not the shale oil pioneers. The real pioneers are going broke, because they don't own petrochemical plants and refineries which make more money when wellhead prices are at $55. A good price for a barrel of WTI is $75. Everyone eats. The tariffs that are being imposed on Chinese goods are resulting in reduced Chinese purchases of American soybeans, corn, pork and oil and gas. They have alternative markets: Brazil for soybeans, Russia and Saudi Arabia and even Iran for oil and gas. And the Chinese people are accustomed to suffering. This won't end well.

Why do you want to feed a Communist Dictatorship?  We Created a Monster here in China.  A Genetic Hybrid of Authoritarian Semi-Capitalism...It's our Fault now we have to Kill it!  This will be very difficult, It should have started 10 years ago but the Great Recession and it's Recovery Damaged Markets in Europe Much more than in the U.S.  I know you are not going to Like this but Freedom isn't Free The Democratic and Republican Leadership on Capital Hill know This.  I hope that Selfish Trump and his Advisors Understand History... China's Political and Economic System has to Die!

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 8/4/2019 at 3:57 PM, Gerry Maddoux said:

My father taught me that the true worth of a man is to take care of the most vulnerable amongst us: children, those born with a disability, the less-than-brilliant. Farmers usually don't fit into any of those categories but by the very nature of the game, and the largesse of the riches of our land, they are able to over-produce and feed the world. This makes them vulnerable as well. 

Hi Gerry, and thank you for your thoughtful Posting.  Your father was an astute man and most decent.  I am sorry that you received two red-arrow downvotes, which in all candor are inappropriate.  That red arrow is reserved for when a Poster is being a jackass, and not to say that someone is in disagreement.  

The issues facing farmers in the USA are in some fashion the result of large corporations buying up farmland and making the independent farmer an economic vassal, producing for and selling to the big corporation - which in turn acts as a market-maker and price setter for the product.  I really don't think that is the result of the China trade conflict.  Remember that China is a relatively new customer of the US farmer; yet US farmers did OK long before China showed up and started purchasing.  Historically the large Communist country that bought US ag products was Russia.  You will  remember the big wheat purchases during the Khrushchev era. 

The balance of your Post is quite expansive and as it is now one a.m. it is beyond my ability to respond to.  That said, it provides much food for thought.  Again, I thank you for posting.  A most interesting perspective.  Cheers.

[Tommie77 + 29]

10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I probably have 30 pairs of shoes that were made in China. I would much rather pay more and have them made in any other country, but preferably in America, Canada or Mexico. We need strong and prosperous neighbors to our north and south.  

Don’t let anyone stop you Ron: https://www.finder.com/made-in-usa-shoes

[James Regan + 1,776]

10 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

Let's see:  the Balfour Declaration,  India-Pakistan Partition, Palestinian Mandate, South Africa, Kenya, Rhodesia, Uganda, those come to mind readily.  British Guyana? 

yup, lots of messes, most not cleaned up close to a century later. 

Big plays for such a little island hard to fathom how such a small country had so much stroke around the globe.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

11 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

[Gotta be quiet around Trump, or he gets angry.  Nature  of the beast.]

he wins or everybody looses... I have done business with the type of people before. However, the longevity of the companies they run is questionable.... But hey, who cares about the future? 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 hours ago, James Regan said:

Big plays for such a little island hard to fathom how such a small country had so much stroke around the globe.

It goes back to the rigid British class system, James.  The landed passed their wealth via primogeniture, so you had these surplus males that would not become landed gentry, and went either into the Church or the military.  The end result was a large officer corps of better intelligence than most, supported by a professional soldier class again of men denied wives due to lack of money and social position in the hierarchy.  That army/navy also had the steam engine, industrial power to manufacture guns and ships, put it together and you have the First Galactic Empire out there with serious firepower from their Starships to take over the great unwashed in places like India. Worked quite well. 

Look at the Falklands War to see how it remains today.  The headlines read:  "Andrew and the Navy to take back the Falklands!"  There you have the Second Son, separated from the Crown in the primogeniture line, in the military and about to set out 9,000 miles to conquer the Argentines.  And he did! 

[H Himmel + 1]

On 8/5/2019 at 1:28 AM, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, the US could have done nothing, lived with the serious trade imbalance, let the status quo remain in effect....and the WORLD would have been happy.

Trump is the only politician, trained as a businessman, in recent history to seriously try to address this situation.

Apparently people think that this exercise should come with no cost or pain. It won't. If Americans will not suck it up, show some backbone, and do what it takes to rectify the situation, then they deserve to suffer the huge trade imbalance, loss of jobs and industries relocating overseas until the American economy is simply a service industry. Their choice.

I've already down 20% on my oil stock. Despite that I see common sense in what you are saying. Keep my fingers crossed.

Edited August 6, 2019 by No Dreams

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, Tommie77 said:

Don’t let anyone stop you Ron: https://www.finder.com/made-in-usa-shoes

New Balance and Sloggers are two of my favorite brands. I wear the Sloggers for yard work. They are like Dutch wooden shoes but made of rubber. I have to find out which New Balance shoes are actually made in America or non Chinese sources. My Sketchers are great for my bunion but I think I can find something else. I may have a lifetime supply already though. (smile)

[tldpdb1 + 24]

7 hours ago, James Regan said:

Big plays for such a little island hard to fathom how such a small country had so much stroke around the globe.

No it isn't....General Freedoms, Free Markets, an Inventive Educated Population Led to the Industrial Revolution, Technological Supremacy and Large Capital Markets. Which led to a Gigantic Advantage Across the Globe and the World's biggest Empire and The World's Greatest Political n Economic influence.  Know you're History! During the late 1700's and Thru the Napoleonic Era, Britain fought War's for Global Supremacy which it Generally Won (Except for One😀) and this Dominance led to a Century of general peace. Now America's Century of World Dominance is Showing sign's of Cracks will it End?....Stay Tuned

[James Regan + 1,776]

15 minutes ago, tldpdb1 said:

No it isn't....General Freedoms, Free Markets, an Inventive Educated Population Led to the Industrial Revolution, Technological Supremacy and Large Capital Markets. Which led to a Gigantic Advantage Across the Globe and the World's biggest Empire and The World's Greatest Political n Economic influence.  Know you're History! During the late 1700's and Thru the Napoleonic Era, Britain fought War's for Global Supremacy which it Generally Won (Except for One😀) and this Dominance led to a Century of general peace. Now America's Century of World Dominance is Showing sign's of Cracks will it End?....Stay Tuned

TiDpiT.... Calm down and take a breath mate, no need to go for the jugular.

Im on your side FFS

[tldpdb1 + 24]

LOL....had to look up FFS..I don't post that much....I was just Making a Historical point....Most People don't know much about History, luv getting a chance to Teach them.   You're on My side?   Do you think that China's Political and Economic System has to go? I Do...Thru Tariffs or Bullets