Tom Kirkman

China has *Already* Lost the Trade War. Meantime, the U.S. Might Sanction China’s Largest Oil Company

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2 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

People within an institution may make the final decision, but the decisions themselves are often attributed to the institution. This is common.

Right because it absolves any individual from taking blame for a bad decision or an onerous action that affects many others.  It's why CEOs cannot be personally liable for the bad actions of individuals operating under the legal facade of the corporation.  With foundations and trusts it's entirely opaque as to the influence they wield and who exactly is controlling it.  

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(edited)

In a court of law, if you're suing a company (an institution) like in a class action lawsuit, your lawyer still needs to find evidence of individual wrongdoing (emails, etc.) before you have a chance in court.  Take the opiod crisis.  Lawyers are currently digging through troves of emails from individuals within the pharmaceutical companies to other individuals in order to prove that there was some sort of conspiracy by the institution to sell as many harmful drugs as possible [naturally the defense lawyers are claiming otherwise- that these are just actions of individuals and not evidence of institutional neglect].  The plaintiffs are trying to get enough of these individual documents and emails between individuals to connect the dots and show that there was an institutional failure.  What the plaintiffs cannot do credibly in court is to wave their arms around and claim stuff without evidence, which is what you're doing in this argument.  

Again, if you really believe what you believe, then take it to a court of law.  You cannot just claim a group of people are doing X or Y and be considered credible.  You must provide evidence of individuals doing harmful activities as part of the group, before anyone else will listen.  

Edited by Zhong Lu

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20 hours ago, John Foote said:

Why do we keep backing down on letting Huawei buy US chips? This would hurt, I am really really hurt, Huawei and Chinese smart phones.

Time is on China's side. If we are going to play hard, play hard.

Not minor stuff that looks tough, might play to the base, but misses the target you need to be hitting.

 

I read a report stating they did it to allow US firms more time to adjust their supply chain.

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19 hours ago, Enthalpic said:

Trump himself is asking the fed reserve to lower interest rate by a full percent and to implement quantitative easing.

These are tools used when the economy is suffering, not thriving.  

https://app.tmxmoney.com/news/cpnews/article?locale=EN&newsid=f14459&mobile=false

Given the extremely low unemployment rate, the requests/demands may be more tied to the interest rates in other, comparable economies.  Interest rate in Japan: -.1% EU area, 0%, UK, .75%, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland -x%.  USA: 2.25%.    Having a higher interest rate appreciates the currency and thus makes one's exports more expensive. 

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Anyone who believes China has lost the trade war is simply delusional. China lost 2 trade wars in the past. The first resulted in the loss of Hong Kong, the next ushered in the Century of Humiliation.

If you believe China has lost then you have lost all your marbles. China has not even started yet. They have been taking a wait and see attitude. As it stands they view the Honk Kong protests and the Trade War as linked issues. If/When the PLA enters Hong Kong will be the day that China goes full bore on the Trade War. They are already refusing to buy anything American, from farming and manufacturing products to oil.

Watch them as they crash the world oil prices. Watch as they assist Iran in sinking American carriers violating Iranian territorial waters. Watch as they fuck the United States and crashes the global economy just to force the American population to suffer.

China has learned from the past to never trust a westerner. As such they will not suffer a loss in the trade war when their own History has shown what happens when that occurs. There will be no negotiations. Not until the west treats China as a equal partner. 

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5 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

In a court of law, if you're suing a company (an institution) like in a class action lawsuit, your lawyer still needs to find evidence of individual wrongdoing (emails, etc.) before you have a chance in court.  Take the opiod crisis.  Lawyers are currently digging through troves of emails from individuals within the pharmaceutical companies to other individuals in order to prove that there was some sort of conspiracy by the institution to sell as many harmful drugs as possible [naturally the defense lawyers are claiming otherwise- that these are just actions of individuals and not evidence of institutional neglect].  The plaintiffs are trying to get enough of these individual documents and emails between individuals to connect the dots and show that there was an institutional failure.  What the plaintiffs cannot do credibly in court is to wave their arms around and claim stuff without evidence, which is what you're doing in this argument.  

Again, if you really believe what you believe, then take it to a court of law.  You cannot just claim a group of people are doing X or Y and be considered credible.  You must provide evidence of individuals doing harmful activities as part of the group, before anyone else will listen.  

There are plenty of examples of groups of people collectively doing something that no single individual in the group would do themselves.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_responsibility

Courts do consider it during sentencing at least.  We had three teens girls who collectively tried to kill someone and they only got 60 days...  No doubt if it were a single perpetrator the penalty would have been much worse.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/alberta-teens-get-60-days-for-slushie-poisoning-1.384505

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On 8/19/2019 at 11:13 AM, Zhong Lu said:

Name a person.  A who,  not a what.  Institutions are made of people.  People in institutions make decisions.  When have you heard of an inanimate object make decisions? If I argue like the way you do I can just as well claim  "my desk is manipulating the stock market."  

Again, present a person who is a so-called "master of the universe" and present evidence applicable to prove he's "manipulating the markets or politics" to the extent that you claim.    

The heads of Facebook, Apple, Google, Twitter. One is Mark Zuckerberg is one of many. 

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7 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

In a court of law, if you're suing a company (an institution) like in a class action lawsuit, your lawyer still needs to find evidence of individual wrongdoing (emails, etc.) before you have a chance in court.  Take the opiod crisis.  Lawyers are currently digging through troves of emails from individuals within the pharmaceutical companies to other individuals in order to prove that there was some sort of conspiracy by the institution to sell as many harmful drugs as possible [naturally the defense lawyers are claiming otherwise- that these are just actions of individuals and not evidence of institutional neglect].  The plaintiffs are trying to get enough of these individual documents and emails between individuals to connect the dots and show that there was an institutional failure.  What the plaintiffs cannot do credibly in court is to wave their arms around and claim stuff without evidence, which is what you're doing in this argument.  

Again, if you really believe what you believe, then take it to a court of law.  You cannot just claim a group of people are doing X or Y and be considered credible.  You must provide evidence of individuals doing harmful activities as part of the group, before anyone else will listen.  

Not when it is as self evident as the nose on your face and everyone already know it. 

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6 hours ago, Global War News said:

Anyone who believes China has lost the trade war is simply delusional. China lost 2 trade wars in the past. The first resulted in the loss of Hong Kong, the next ushered in the Century of Humiliation.

If you believe China has lost then you have lost all your marbles. China has not even started yet. They have been taking a wait and see attitude. As it stands they view the Honk Kong protests and the Trade War as linked issues. If/When the PLA enters Hong Kong will be the day that China goes full bore on the Trade War. They are already refusing to buy anything American, from farming and manufacturing products to oil.

Watch them as they crash the world oil prices. Watch as they assist Iran in sinking American carriers violating Iranian territorial waters. Watch as they fuck the United States and crashes the global economy just to force the American population to suffer.

China has learned from the past to never trust a westerner. As such they will not suffer a loss in the trade war when their own History has shown what happens when that occurs. There will be no negotiations. Not until the west treats China as a equal partner. 

President Trump is trying to make them act like an equal partner rather than an advanced nation pretending to be an undeveloped one. We have tolerated that far too long. 

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(edited)

I would like to point out that Trump's policy leads to a conflict situation between the US  Israel, and perhaps Britain, versus virtually the rest of the world. The situation in which America simultaneously imposes sanctions or starts a trade wars  with  a big number of large world economies will not end in any good for the USA because natural result is rapid dedollarization of world economy and it means a serious recession in USA or global conflict to protect role of $ as world reserve currency.

I would also like to remind you that China is now a single biggest foreign holder of USA state bonds and its USA not China that currently has a debt of something like 100 % of gdp and a biggest budget deficit in whole history of a country.

Its very dangerous game for USA and I think  now time is not of your side. You are currently running out of time to stay as global hegemon because you are late- right time to start a easily won economic war with China has passed many years ago and now you can expect a conflict lasting years or decades. 

 Fight between China and USA for global hegemony will be most important clash of this century and time is on China side so it was probably the last moment tor US president to start a trade war. But this doesnt mean USA will win this conflict and I personally bet on China.

 

Edited by Tomasz
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43 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

President Trump is trying to make them act like an equal partner rather than an advanced nation pretending to be an undeveloped one. We have tolerated that far too long. 

Good point.  Sadly many here still think China is a backwards group of rice eating peasants.

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(edited)

7 hours ago, Toranaga said:

Given the extremely low unemployment rate, the requests/demands may be more tied to the interest rates in other, comparable economies.  Interest rate in Japan: -.1% EU area, 0%, UK, .75%, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland -x%.  USA: 2.25%.    Having a higher interest rate appreciates the currency and thus makes one's exports more expensive. 

Perhaps... -1% is a big change.

The last two changes here in Canada have been 0.25% increases (now 1.75%)

Edited by Enthalpic
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Anyone else notice a significant number of new comment-ers in this thread making their first (or maybe second) post on oilprice? Interesting how they are all pro-china.

...Just interesting.

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8 hours ago, Global War News said:

Anyone who believes China has lost the trade war is simply delusional. China lost 2 trade wars in the past. The first resulted in the loss of Hong Kong, the next ushered in the Century of Humiliation.

If you believe China has lost then you have lost all your marbles. China has not even started yet. They have been taking a wait and see attitude. As it stands they view the Honk Kong protests and the Trade War as linked issues. If/When the PLA enters Hong Kong will be the day that China goes full bore on the Trade War. They are already refusing to buy anything American, from farming and manufacturing products to oil.

Watch them as they crash the world oil prices. Watch as they assist Iran in sinking American carriers violating Iranian territorial waters. Watch as they fuck the United States and crashes the global economy just to force the American population to suffer.

China has learned from the past to never trust a westerner. As such they will not suffer a loss in the trade war when their own History has shown what happens when that occurs. There will be no negotiations. Not until the west treats China as a equal partner. 

Welp, this thread suddenly became interesting ...

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1 hour ago, Otis11 said:

Anyone else notice a significant number of new comment-ers in this thread making their first (or maybe second) post on oilprice? Interesting how they are all pro-china.

...Just interesting.

Yes, it's a welcome relief from the persistent China spammer, who has choked the Geopolitics subforums 6 times so far with massive spam attacks in the past week, trying to shut down discussions here.

I would prefer reading pro-China comments rather than have pro-China spammers try to stifle the Free Speech on this forum.

Welcome, pro-China newcomers, to this forum.  Post your very best arguments and reasons why U.S. will lose and China will win.

Since any new pro-China poster may be unallowed to criticize Xi (if they are posting from China), I will try to remember to refrain from doing so as well; I live in Malaysia and understand very much the concept that criticizing certain people can land you in prison or have other unpleasant consequences.

Go ahead, knock yourself out, give it your best shot; try to convince me and other forum members and lurkers here that China will win this trade war.

 

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8 hours ago, Global War News said:

China has not even started yet. They have been taking a wait and see attitude.

How's that working out for ya?

8 hours ago, Global War News said:

There will be no negotiations. Not until the west treats China as a equal partner. 

You are purposely being ironic here I assume?

 

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1 hour ago, Otis11 said:

Anyone else notice a significant number of new comment-ers in this thread making their first (or maybe second) post on oilprice? Interesting how they are all pro-china.

...Just interesting.

very...  

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1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Welcome, pro-China newcomers, to this forum.  Post your very best arguments and reasons why U.S. will lose and China will win.

Since any new pro-China poster may be unallowed to criticize Xi (if they are posting from China), I will try to remember to refrain from doing so as well; I live in Malaysia and understand very much the concept that criticizing certain people can land you in prison or have other unpleasant consequences.

Go ahead, knock yourself out, give it your best shot; try to convince me and other forum members and lurkers here that China will win this trade war.

 

For new lurkers here, I am a U.S. citizen, a Permanent Resident of Malaysia, living in Malaysia for almost 20 years.  Married to a Chinese Malaysian citizen for more than 2 decades.  And I am strongly and unapologetically pro - oil & gas and pro - Trump.

Over on LinkedIn, I have thousands of LinkedIn connections that live in Mainland China.  I have been to China 7 times, and have travelled overseas quite a bit.

And I just gently invited some more pro-China lurkers from LinkedIn to this thread : )

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tomkirkman_seems-my-numerous-threads-on-the-us-vs-activity-6569749120381222912-fy2K

 

================================

/ edit, related threads, that new lurkers may find interesting:

 

 

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1 minute ago, Tom Kirkman said:

 

For new lurkers here, I am a U.S. citizen, a Permanent Resident of Malaysia, living in Malaysia for almost 20 years.  Married to a Chinese Malaysian citizen for more than 2 decades.  And I am strongly and unapologetically pro - oil & gas and pro - Trump.

Over on LinkedIn, I have thousands of LinkedIn connections that live in Mainland China.

And I just gently invited some more pro-China lurkers from LinkedIn to this thread : )

 

 

Think I need to make coffee...

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1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Welp, this thread suddenly became interesting ...

I noticed that the Chinese spammer is back, again.  Why would they even pay attention to such an out-of-the-way corner website such as this?  I have a hard time believing that you are that influential.  No disrespect.

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21 minutes ago, Okie said:

I noticed that the Chinese spammer is back, again.  Why would they even pay attention to such an out-of-the-way corner website such as this?  I have a hard time believing that you are that influential.  No disrespect.

Heh heh, I'm not particularly influential, just a motormouth.

I'm open to other theories.  The spammer only posts the Mandarin spam in the Geopolitics subforum here.

Over on free speech chan forums, when threads strike a nerve and are "over the target" there is normally a counter-reaction of off-topic "slides" (stupid stuff to distract away from the topic) and a barrage of spam to try to bury the topic.  I am used to seeing these spam tactics on a regular basis.

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On 8/19/2019 at 1:31 PM, James Regan said:

Respect @Rasmus Jorgensen 👊🏻

Sorry if it came across wrong. That was not my intention. Seriously. 

On that note - try viewing some of your comments about Scots and Scotland as if you were a Scot...

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6 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Sorry if it came across wrong. That was not my intention. Seriously. 

On that note - try viewing some of your comments about Scots and Scotland as if you were a Scot...

@Rasmus Jorgensen No I didn't take it that way at all, texting is hell sometimes, we can read or write something and depending on the frame of mind of the writer or reader things can easily be confused, "wars have been started for less" LOL 

Regarding the shift on position ie my comments on Scots as if I was a Scot its interesting. I went to secondary school and up until mid 20s lived in Aberdeen all my mates are Scottish I'm a FEB ( A F$%^& English Bas^%$d) lol, we gave as good as we got. How can I be anti Scottish, imagine your English watching England play Argentina in the world cup and your the only one with an English top on and the rest of the bar are wearing Argentine tops (all sheep shaggers lol) and England lose on Penalties....

I am well certified to play both sides as it suits me, I love the Scots but would easily kill one of them when we play them at football, as they would me, its all good banter.

But if you go to the southern cities in particular Glasgow where there is still a lot of religious bios its a different story, the catholic and protestant divides very evident, just watch a Rangers Celtic game- Old Firm- you will see the Irish troubles are still on the agenda.....

 

Im good dude-Respect and thanks for your consideration....

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6 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Over on free speech chan forums, when threads strike a nerve and are "over the target" there is normally a counter-reaction of off-topic "slides" (stupid stuff to distract away from the topic) and a barrage of spam to try to bury the topic.  I am used to seeing these spam tactics on a regular basis.

Seems like what happens on this forum if someone does not worship the great DT.... 

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On 8/7/2019 at 6:54 AM, Tom Kirkman said:

China has *already* lost the trade war with the U.S. but they just haven't realized it yet.

Trump keeps outmaneuvering Xi.

For reference, look at what has happened recently with Mexico and U.S.  Mexico has capitulated.

Just wait for China to realize that they will no longer be calling the shots in their trade with the U.S.

Here's the latest move:

The U.S. Might Sanction China’s Largest Oil Company

 

China never called the shots. Even now, China only gets USA treasury bonds which are worthless, in return for exporting real goods like steel, plastics, rare earth minerals etc. This means that China is simply selling to USA on loans. So, China is not having any advantage in trade. USA has refused to allow China to buy real estate from the dollar reserves, refused to allow China to buy USA companies and has imposed many restrictions on Chinese investment in USA.

In reality, USA is being unfair to China by getting free goods and then giving back nothing.

On 8/7/2019 at 11:10 PM, SKEP said:

It took U.S. over 20 years to realize that China and their Communist Party are all in on an economic and trade war against them.  

It took Trump to do something about it.

How long will it take China to figure out they already lost.

China's in denial .  .  .  Just like OPEC is in denial.

USA was always shouting against China. But China had its own natural resources and civilisation because of which it developed on its own. Till 1990s China was oil exporter and self sufficient in resources. Even later, China developed mostly as self sufficient economy and hence USA could not do anything. Current Chinese trade surplus is because of USA coming to near collapse in 2008 economic crisis where China bailed it out by giving huge loans. That simply continues till date. USA can now reverse that due to USA economy recovering from 2008 crash and also achieveing energy self sufficiency

On 8/16/2019 at 3:49 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

For your consideration:

U.S. Consumer Spending Beats Expectations – Shoppers Reject Phony Media Recession Fears

If you needed any empirical evidence to prove the doomsday proclamations by the financial pundits are false claims, just look at the July consumer spending results. July spending more than doubled expectations.

July results were +0.7 percent, against the economic forecast of +.03 percent.   Consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. GDP and overall economy. Doesn’t exactly sound like Main Street is on the precipice of a recession. Oh my.

ross-tweet-july-2019-retail-sales.jpg?w=

Average wage growth remains +3.5% year-over-year.  The growth of overall income for American workers exceeds +5.4 percent year-over-year.  Unemployment is a low 3.6%and U.S. consumer inflation remains low at 1.4 percent.  Meaning: the middle-class has more disposable income to save or SPEND; and that’s what is happening….

  • Reminder #1: Consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy.
  • Reminder #2: We consume more than 80 percent of our own production (products created in USA).  We do not rely on exports.
  • Reminder #3: Because of #1 and #2, the “Main Street” U.S. economy is self sustaining -much stronger- and more protected from the negative impacts on the global economy.
  • Reminder #4: Who/What is at risk from global contraction? The Wall Street economy (compromised primarily of multinationals).  What is not at risk, the Main St economy.
  • Reminder #5:  Because of #3 and #4, Wall Street can drop while Main Street thrives.

...

That is not really a good way to check things. USA economy may have 80% self consumption but that does not mean they are delinked from 20% exports. USA simply prints dollars and imports goods due to the petrodollar system. To understand how important foriegn trade is, let us take the year 2010 where USA imported 10 million barrels of oil a day (10MBPD). This amounts to 3.6 billion barrels a year. Each barrel costing $110, the total cost would be just $400 billion per year. But if this oil is removed, then entire USA economy of $15 trillion (in 2010) will come crashing to levels of $5 trillion, not just get lowered by $400 billion.

Similarly, in current times, if China stops selling items like rare earth minerals, machinery, computers, phones etc, USA economy would come crashing down as majority of USA economy relies on semiconductor and computers.

The GDP calculation is quite erroneous as it involves multiple counting of the same money while changing hands. It is not a good indicator of economy at all. What matters most is the important resources production and consumption

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