Zhong Lu

"We're Not Going to Negotiate Anymore"

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2 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

I disagree, but we will not find now.. 

Rasmus, if the EU had issues with the Chinese trade practices, intellectual property theft, and the rest of it, why didn't THEY initiate action (in whatever form) to address the issue?

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12 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Rasmus, if the EU had issues with the Chinese trade practices, intellectual property theft, and the rest of it, why didn't THEY initiate action (in whatever form) to address the issue?

I believe  EU, although too slow, was trying to work within established channels. I have already conceeded that I find it positive that Trump brought this higher on the agenda. 

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Not required that you concede anything! I appreciate your point of view and find it interesting.

I think it is safe to say that the EU is 'confrontationally adverse' to those outside their remit Brexit comes to mind) while Trump, as a businessman (not a diplomat) is not afraid of confrontation.

I still believe, from many of the comments, that people expect Trump to approach issues from a diplomatic perspective. This is flawed as he has never been a diplomat, he's a successful businessman, and this is partly what got him elected.

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5 minutes ago, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

What does this picture have to do with your comment?

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(edited)

9 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

You do not understand George Bush one bit.  My guess is that you never even met the man. I further guess that you never had a beer with him, either.  George Bush is an old friend of mine. I have known George since teenage years.  So lay off George Bush.

 Nobody started WWI because they thought it was best for their country.  That is ridiculous.  Some mobilized armies because they were invaded.  Others went due to Treaty obligations. 

 The "trade front," as you categorize it, is nothing more than the development of certain trade patterns.  Those are being disrupted.  New patterns, likely with new players, will emerge.  Eventually the new patterns will become the norm, and this business of importing from China will be looked at as an aberration.  As a final note, as to soybeans, they will be put to other uses by other buyers soon enough.  It is not cast in cement that US soy farmers must sell their crop to only Chinese buyers for incorporation into animal feed there.  That is silly.  Scientists studying the soy plant will find new uses soon enough.  And some portion of the land will be planted in something else.  That is how suppliers respond to changing markets.  

Everyone thought WWI would be an easy war.  Home by Christmas, or whatever it was.  "Look at all these awesome soldiers and armies we've got.  They don't stand a chance."  So did many think.

It's just one episode in a long history of political miscalculations by overconfident fools who have more confidence than competence.  Here's my prediction: this "trade war" that some people claim is "easy to win" will still be going on 5 to 10 years from now. This might be a good time to buy VNM (etf that tracks vietnam).  

EDIT: Actually I'm going to go ahead and buy it right now.  Even from a short term swing trading perspective it looks like a good bet.  

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/07/11/na071619-five-charts-explain-vietnams-economic-outlook

Edited by Zhong Lu

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16 hours ago, Zhong Lu said:

No, I'm pretty sure China at this point won't come to an agreement.  At least not with the current administration.  

"We'll just wait you out. If there's some economic pain, then so be it."

So: what next? 

New. Trading. Partners. 

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(edited)

Higher. Costs.  

Edited by Zhong Lu

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2 minutes ago, Zhong Lu said:

Higher. Costs.  

Plenty of cheap labor to be had around the world twice.  Cheap labor is cheap to find.  We only do business with China now because they devalue their currency.  There are probably 100 Asian nations alone that would love a piece of the pie, and who could easily replace the China workforce...  And China is already being replaced quickly.  When Trump wins in 2020, China will have to crawl to him.  I think he plans to get things going with NK in the near future.  We like having NK right next door to you, and aligned with us.      

How are the HK riots going over there? 

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(edited)

Dunno.  I live in the US.  From what I hear it's not a big deal.  A bunch of hooligans running around.  If they continue, they'll be crushed soon.  Don't be fooled by the propaganda being spewed by Trump and the rest of the US media.  

Edited by Zhong Lu

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10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

" We win by switching to trading partners that allow FAIR Trade and do not steal or demand our trade secrets."

That's great as long we don't need something that China has a pretty decent lock on - it "may be" considered relatively miniscule but "Rare Earths" come to mind 😬

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2 hours ago, Uvuvwevwevwe Onyetenyevwe Ugwemuhwem Osas said:

We own a fairly sizable ranch and I have coffee almost every morning with a large group of other ranchers here in South Texas. Based on these coffee shop discussions I feel confident in stating that the demonrats do NOT have the majority of the farm and ranch votes in South Texas. While not everyone agrees with Trump the alternative is completely unacceptable.

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1 minute ago, butasha said:

We own a fairly sizable ranch and I have coffee almost every morning with a large group of other ranchers here in South Texas. Based on these coffee shop discussions I feel confident in stating that the demonrats do NOT have the majority of the farm and ranch votes in South Texas. While not everyone agrees with Trump the alternative is completely unacceptable.

Texas might go the way of Virginia in another 10 years.  

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I am sitting here reading these consecutive posts and recognize to my astonishment how little you fellows recognize the realities of the Trump Administration and what it portends for America and its trading partners, specifically the Chinese and the Europeans.  Makes for interesting reading, though. 

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Just now, Zhong Lu said:

Texas might go the way of Virginia in another 10 years.  

Unfortunately, you finally posted something that I reluctantly agree with. I certainly hope that the state that I live doesn’t turn blue but fear that at the current rate of growth it is a possibility.

What most don’t remember is that the farm and ranch community used to be solid Democrat. My father never voted anything but Democrat. But that was long ago and the current demonrat party is nothing like the Democrat party when my father was alive.

 I personally can’t envision a current scenario that would cause me to flip a voting switch for anyone in the current Democrat party. I am just one vote. But I vote every election.

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7 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

I am sitting here reading these consecutive posts and recognize to my astonishment how little you fellows recognize the realities of the Trump Administration and what it portends for America and its trading partners, specifically the Chinese and the Europeans.  Makes for interesting reading, though. 

While I have travelled quite a bit in my life I completely understand that regional and other differences in opinion exist. Please expand on your latest post in this thread.

Please do not read sarcasm into this post. I for one would truly like to hear your thoughts on this subject.

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1 minute ago, butasha said:

While I have travelled quite a bit in my life I completely understand that regional and other differences in opinion exist. Please expand on your latest post in this thread.

Please do not read sarcasm into this post. I for one would truly like to hear your thoughts on this subject.

Going  to have to wait until tomorrow.  I have a ton of work to get out under deadline, but I will be getting back to you.  Cheers. 

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17 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Subject: Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure

The White House
Office of the Press Secretary
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 7, 2019

... THE PRESIDENT:  ... Our country is doing incredibly well. China is not doing well, if you look at the trade situation.

China just admitted yesterday that they've been a currency manipulator. First time they've ever been called out. Companies are moving out of China by the thousands, and our country is doing very well. We're going to see how it all works out. Somebody had to do this with China because they were taking hundreds of billions of dollars a year out of the United States. And somebody had to make a stand. So, I think our country is doing really well.

Q What's your reaction to the market reaction to the trade war? And what's next with China?

THE PRESIDENT: I think the market -- I think the market reaction is anticipated. I would have anticipated. I would have maybe anticipated even more. But ultimately, it's going to go much higher than it ever would have gone because China was like an anchor on us. China was killing us with unfair trade deals. The people that allowed that to happen are a disgrace. China, what they were doing to us, for years and years, taking hundreds of billions of dollars out, stealing intellectual property, targeting our farmers. All of that is ending, and they understand that.  ...

 

... Q Are you watching the stock market's reaction to China, sir?

THE PRESIDENT: I am. I think the market reaction is to be expected. I might've expected even more.

At some point, as I just said, we have to take on China. They've been taking -- look, they've been taking us to the cleaners for 25 years. This should've been done long before me as a President. You know the story better than anybody. You know it better than I do, frankly. Hundreds of billions of dollars a year taken out of our country. Stealing intellectual property.

And you know what? We, right now, we're sitting on top. We have money pouring in. We have powerful companies, strong companies. China is losing so many -- they're losing -- thousands and thousands of companies are leaving China now because of the tariffs. And we're in a very good position as to whether or not a deal will be made. I will tell you this: China would like to make a deal very badly.  ...

Tom,

Trump makes all kinds of nonsense claims.  What a neutral observer sees is the World economy teetering on the brink of recession.  Perhaps this is what is best in the long run, in the mean time it is likely to hit all of the World including the US.  The cause is Trump's trade war.  Of course he will  blame others, the man has never taken responsibility for anything throughout his life.

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16 hours ago, Wastral said:

A loan is not theft until default.  In my world It has to be paid back.  I would love to see the USA federal government pruned by 50% tomorrow. 

Your list of what to cut is?

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15 hours ago, Jakridge said:

The Chinese will negotiate before waiting out Trumps second term, which will happen.  They will probably negotiate sooner, they are used to prosperity more than they have ever had and will not let that dwindle down exponentially for long.  They have more to lose than we do.

The point is that they will wait until after the 2020 election to negotiate, perhaps Trump wins, at that point they may choose to close a deal, in the mean time they may choose to let their currency float and also sell their US Treasuries.  Things might not work out as well as Trump believes, his knowledge of economics is pretty poor.

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15 hours ago, SKEP said:

Where else is China gonna put their $3.6Trillion in reserves.  Bitcoin ?

China is getting a lesson in humility. 

They don't control the world.

Nor does U.S. 

OPEC has recently learned the same lesson in humility.

 

Perhaps the Euro, or buy hard currency, they can simply reduce their reserves and let their currency float.

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8 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Perhaps the Euro, or buy hard currency, they can simply reduce their reserves and let their currency float.

Hard currency? What is that pray tell? 

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24 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

the World economy teetering on the brink of recession.

Your proof of this is the record low unemployment or the record high stock market? 

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11 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Perhaps the Euro, or buy hard currency, they can simply reduce their reserves and let their currency float.

What ? Buy Euro's ? Huh ?

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12 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Okay, let us wait and see.

You seem to think that the pain tolerance of the rank and file Chinese is greater than that of Americans. Probably true 50 years ago, not sure about now UNLESS it is mandated by Xi (essentially a dictator for life).

Doing it for the good of the American farmer? What about the rest of the Americans? They vote as well!

Trump is NOT unpredictable or reliable. You can reliably predict that he will do what he thinks is best for America and he will NOT back down.

Finally, your comment regarding the majority he never had...you have fallen into the trap of not understanding the Electoral College.

Trump does what is best for Trump, no more no less.  His vision of America is not one I share.

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