"We're Not Going to Negotiate Anymore"

[SKEP + 229]

19 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

The point is that they will wait until after the 2020 election to negotiate, perhaps Trump wins, at that point they may choose to close a deal, in the mean time they may choose to let their currency float and also sell their US Treasuries.  Things might not work out as well as Trump believes, his knowledge of economics is pretty poor.

The guy's nuts. Grab 'em.

[D Coyne + 305]

3 minutes ago, Ward Smith said:

Your proof of this is the record low unemployment or the record high stock market? 

What part of World is unclear?  The stock market can turn on a dime, why is it that Oil demand forecasts are being revised and the price of oil so low?  Have you read the news lately, maybe the news has not reached Fox. 

[SKEP + 229]

4 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Trump does what is best for Trump, no more no less.  His vision of America is not one I share.

Game over. Trump won

China will sign a deal once they realize this.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, D Coyne said:

Tom,

Trump makes all kinds of nonsense claims.  What a neutral observer sees is the World economy teetering on the brink of recession.  Perhaps this is what is best in the long run, in the mean time it is likely to hit all of the World including the US.  The cause is Trump's trade war.  Of course he will  blame others, the man has never taken responsibility for anything throughout his life.

Dennis,

Clearly, I am a strong supporter of Trump, and I am not at all shy about saying so.  And I refuse to apologize for being a strong Trump supporter.

Normally, when I post a lengthy quote from Trump, my intention is to do what most Mainstream Media have painfully abdicated doing, which is to respect the Office of the President of the United States of America, and accurately report what the President says in a press conference in response to questions by reporters.

According to most MSM, Trump is evil incarnate, and pretty much anything Trump says is taken out of context by MSM, misinterpreted, and put in the worst possible light.

Obviously, not everyone likes Trump.  No problem.  Fire away at him, he can take it.  But please don't misquote him or falsely put words in his mouth that he didn't say.

In this case, in this thread, I was simply quoting in full, Trump's responses to reporters' questions about the trade war with China.  The full interview is a bit lengthy and covers many topics, so I only excerpted the sections that deal with the trade war, which would be on-topic for this thread.  Link to the full interview is provided, so others can read it if they wish.

Best to let the President speak for himself, rather than me or the media (mis)interpret the President's responses to questions by the press.

I am a proud supporter of the oil and gas industry, and I refuse to apologize for supporting the oil and gas industry, warts and all.  I view the oil and gas industry as having far more benefits than detriments.

I am a proud supporter of Trumo and the USA, and I refuse to apologize for supporting Trump and the USA, warts and all.  I view Trump and the USA as having far more benefits than detriments.

Trump is a strong Nationalist.  So is Putin.  These leaders were elected to look after the interests of their respective countries.  

[SKEP + 229]

7 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Rasmus, if the EU had issues with the Chinese trade practices, intellectual property theft, and the rest of it, why didn't THEY initiate action (in whatever form) to address the issue?

EU is in a more difficult position. The Chinese bully is very vindictive.  While they are retaliating against US and it hurts some industry like farming, the US economy at this time is in much better state than EU. US better equipped to handle China's hostile economic threats. 

Hopefully EU will show some appreciation of US efforts.

All of Southeast Asia is benefiting from Trump's tariffs.  

Edited August 9, 2019 by SKEP

[SKEP + 229]

12 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

What part of World is unclear?  The stock market can turn on a dime, why is it that Oil demand forecasts are being revised and the price of oil so low?  Have you read the news lately, maybe the news has not reached Fox. 

" . . . price of oil so low ?"

Too much supply. The world will not pay Saudi Arabia ,$100 for what cost them $2 to get out of the ground.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 hours ago, Happy Go Lucky said:

That's great as long we don't need something that China has a pretty decent lock on - it "may be" considered relatively miniscule but "Rare Earths" come to mind 😬

The only reason we have not exploited rare earth deposits is because it has not been a national priority, which it definitely should have been all along. The federal government should take immediate action to support mining operations around the world. 

[D Coyne + 305]

10 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

 

I suppose that there was some reason to give your ethnicity in your post. Nonsense like this simply drives the racial wedge for no apparent reason.

Doug,

You give your ethnicity in every post with your picture.  Are you driving wedge issues then?

[SKEP + 229]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

The only reason we have not exploited rare earth deposits is because it has not been a national priority, which it definitely should have been all along. The federal government should take immediate action to support mining operations around the world. 

China has the facilities to process the rare earth elements. Getting the raw materials doable.   US needs to make the building of the processing facilities in U.S. a security priority

 

Edited August 8, 2019 by SKEP

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

12 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Doug,

You give your ethnicity in every post with your picture.  Are you driving wedge issues then?

Gentle nudge from Moderator. Tread carefully in this.  Not quite sure what you are pushing for, but I don't want to get into a racial food fight here.

[SERWIN + 749]

15 hours ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

As a rancher, I'm hoping that one result may be a jump in beef prices. 

Is that new deal going on with Europe exporting beef going to help you out?

[D Coyne + 305]

5 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Not required that you concede anything! I appreciate your point of view and find it interesting.

I think it is safe to say that the EU is 'confrontationally adverse' to those outside their remit Brexit comes to mind) while Trump, as a businessman (not a diplomat) is not afraid of confrontation.

I still believe, from many of the comments, that people expect Trump to approach issues from a diplomatic perspective. This is flawed as he has never been a diplomat, he's a successful businessman, and this is partly what got him elected.

Douglas,

He claims to be a successful businessman, if he released his tax returns like most presidential nominees we would know if the claims could be backed up.

Seems Trump's companies have filed for bankruptcy several times, not sure that is a great measure of success as a businessman.

He is a great entertainer and promoter of himself, not a very good businessman.

https://thelawdictionary.org/article/how-is-donald-trump-able-to-file-for-bankruptcy-so-many-times/

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

I am sitting here reading these consecutive posts and recognize to my astonishment how little you fellows recognize the realities of the Trump Administration and what it portends for America and its trading partners, specifically the Chinese and the Europeans.  Makes for interesting reading, though. 

Please enlighten us Jan. I would love to see your thoughts. 

[D Coyne + 305]

1 hour ago, Ward Smith said:

Hard currency? What is that pray tell? 

precious metal, gold, silver, platinum, etc.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

precious metal, gold, silver, platinum, etc.

The American dollar is the best right now. Silver has gone way down in recent years. Gold has been up and down. 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hardcurrency.asp

Edited August 8, 2019 by ronwagn

[D Coyne + 305]

1 hour ago, SKEP said:

" . . . price of oil so low ?"

Too much supply. The world will not pay Saudi Arabia ,$100 for what cost them $2 to get out of the ground.

Too much supply relative to demand, yes.

World C+C output through April 2019 (latest data point from EIA).

We are quite a bit below $70/b for Brent, which I agree with Tom is probably a good price level.

Edited August 8, 2019 by D Coyne

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

2 hours ago, D Coyne said:

Your list of what to cut is?

FOr 50% reduction:

Department of Interior 100%,, give land to states which should have happened when became states

CIA 100%

Department of non Education 1000%: Teaches zero children

Department of "homeland Joke defense" 100% : we did what was needed by installing locked out doors to the cockpit. Yes, 9/11 happened, now revert back.

Defense department: 30% cut

Medicare: Cut 100%, "insurance on top of insurance" jacks up the costs of everything. 

Secrete "service", cut it by 50%.  Since 9/11 has become obscenely bloated, and no, you are not kings

Cut by 100%: Farm bill.  It is a giant ass pork to giant corporate farms.  Or at minimum eliminate all funding to all corporate or coop farms which is 80% of the "farm bill"

USDA regulations/enforcement: Throw them out 100% and write one single law which is already on the books: Do no harm

HUD: Eliminate 100%

etc etc

Go through all the commissions Bet 3/4 could be eliminated.

[SKEP + 229]

20 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Too much supply relative to demand, yes.

World C+C output through April 2019 (latest data point from EIA).

We are quite a bit below $70/b for Brent, which I agree with Tom is probably a good price level.

What do you mean by " good price" and for whom.  Free markets and cost of production determine price. 

[D Coyne + 305]

18 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

The American dollar is the best right now. Silver has gone way down in recent years. Gold has been up and down. 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hardcurrency.asp

Ronwagn,

The Chinese government may choose to reduce their holdings of dollars and they need to exchange them for something, it may be a different currency (such as the Euro) or it might be Gold, right now they seem to be buying quite a bit of oil (thought hat is probably private businesses and not the government.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

5 minutes ago, D Coyne said:

Ronwagn,

The Chinese government may choose to reduce their holdings of dollars and they need to exchange them for something, it may be a different currency (such as the Euro) or it might be Gold, right now they seem to be buying quite a bit of oil (thought hat is probably private businesses and not the government.

Russia has been depending on gold for stability in its declining economy. China may do the same, but I question gold since it is unstable compared to the American dollar and economy. I might be wrong on that though. 

[D Coyne + 305]

20 minutes ago, SKEP said:

What do you mean by " good price" and for whom.  Free markets and cost of production determine price. 

Ask Tom, I believe he thinks that is a price that will roughly achieve market balance.  Free Markets only exist in Microeconomics 101 textbooks.  We live in the real world, or I do in any case.

I agree supply and demand will determine the price of oil, the market expects there will be a glut of oil, but expectations are incorrect.  Oil price will move back to Tom's preferred (hoped for) price in my opinion, though the trade war may continue to put a damper on demand for oil if it continues.

As for who the $70/b price is good for, I think Tom believes it is good for everyone, high enough so there is adequate supply and low enough so there is adequate demand to utilize that supply, I just happen to agree with him, and in many cases we do not agree, this s one of those few.

Note for both of us I think it is the case that we don't know what future oil price will be, that is where all three of us might agree, the market (whether free or not) will determine the price of oil.

Edited August 8, 2019 by D Coyne

[ronwagn + 6,290]

57 minutes ago, SERWIN said:

Is that new deal going on with Europe exporting beef going to help you out?

I doubt Europe can export much of their beef. 

[SKEP + 229]

1 hour ago, D Coyne said:

Ask Tom, I believe he thinks that is a price that will roughly achieve market balance.  Free Markets only exist in Microeconomics 101 textbooks.  We live in the real world, or I do in any case.

I agree supply and demand will determine the price of oil, the market expects there will be a glut of oil, but expectations are incorrect.  Oil price will move back to Tom's preferred (hoped for) price in my opinion, though the trade war may continue to put a damper on demand for oil if it continues.

As for who the $70/b price is good for, I think Tom believes it is good for everyone, high enough so there is adequate supply and low enough so there is adequate demand to utilize that supply, I just happen to agree with him, and in many cases we do not agree, this s one of those few.

Note for both of us I think it is the case that we don't know what future oil price will be, that is where all three of us might agree, the market (whether free or not) will determine the price of oil.

Market "balance" or market "stabilization" is a myth , a ruse an OPEC creation.  It's just semantics for OPEC to justify there price fixing antics.

When Saudi/OPEC controlled a majority of the known/recoverable oil reservers it worked.  The industrial countries had no choice.  Can't run an economy on water.

That has all changed.  Most of OPEC cost btw $1.50 to $6.00 bbl. Offshore going forward cost sub $30 bbl. Shale $18 to $52 breakdown for most. 

It all has nothing to do with "what's fair". Demand will plateau in five years according to Morgan Stanley. I concur.  Supply will continue to increase.

Average shale will come down to $20.  That leaves offshore as the high cost option probably between $25 to $30 breakdown.

Right now with maybe 1 mm bbl/day overproduction a rumor, a limpet mine or a statement from Khalid al-Falih can keep prices in $50 to $65 range.  However when there is 2 mm or 3 mm or more extra oil / day in the market competition and free markets will be the determinate of oil price . That's where the offshore high price of $30 comes in. Whats a reasonable rate of return to put on $30 oil.  

ARAMCO can survive at $35 to $40 oil price.  But many OPEC governments will not.

There is no rule that says shale producers that gave away excessively high royalty rates and expanded at any cost reinvesting all cash and over leveraging debt and bank loans based on the belief $100 + bbl oil will last forever,  must be bailed out.

All starts to shake out in 2020. 

 

Edited August 8, 2019 by SKEP

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

3 hours ago, SKEP said:

 

China will sign a deal once they realize this.

What is this proposed deal?  Seriously?  Are there any proposals?

[Enthalpic + 1,496]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

China may do the same, but I question gold since it is unstable compared to the American dollar and economy. I might be wrong on that though. 

Gold is pretty darn safe. If gold is rising you know investors are spooked by something.