EIA Inventory Data (Wednesdays)

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 hour ago, Harsh vardhan singh said:

more than expected...it's too much

 

2 minutes ago, Tom Blazek said:

HELP!  

I have been tracking EIA Weekly Data concerning ethanol for over a year. What I've seen is that significant revisions to the weekly data come out several months later. For example, recently the weekly blending data for February was revised up by 632,000 Barrels or 22,571 BPD which was about a 2.6% increase. Does anyone have incite into these types of revisions.  How accurate are the weekly numbers? We seem to put a lot of faith in them but I have been loosing faith in them over the past year.

Thanks

Weekly EIA figures are EXTRAPOLATIONS, based on the Short Term Energy Outlook (a forecast). Monthly figures are based on more actual reporting. There is a major lag in reported data. more here: https://community.oilprice.com/topic/1500-crazy-crude-oil-inventory-fact/?tab=comments#comment-8179

 

[Tom Blazek + 38]

19 hours ago, Rodent said:

 

Weekly EIA figures are EXTRAPOLATIONS, based on the Short Term Energy Outlook (a fo

recast). Monthly figures are based on more actual reporting. There is a major lag in reported data. more here: https://community.oilprice.com/topic/1500-crazy-crude-oil-inventory-fact/?tab=comments#comment-8179

 

Rodent, thanks for the help! That makes a lot of sense. I wish I had that knowledge 6 months ago before I pulled all my hair out!

Tom

[Rodent + 1,424]

EIA draws across the board:

Crude oil -1.4 million

gasoline -3.8 million

distillate -0.1 million

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

On 2.05.2018 at 6:40 PM, Rodent said:

 

Weekly EIA figures are EXTRAPOLATIONS, based on the Short Term Energy Outlook (a forecast). Monthly figures are based on more actual reporting. There is a major lag in reported data. more here: https://community.oilprice.com/topic/1500-crazy-crude-oil-inventory-fact/?tab=comments#comment-8179

 

That's part of the problem. Much bigger problem for me is the difference between weekly US oil production estimates and monthly production data with 2 months lag- for example at the end of Aprill we get information about February's production.

They can differ really quite significantly - check 2017 year per example- monthly production where lower in spring, summer and at the beggininng of autummn and in final months of that year monthly production data where much bigger than weekly estimates. And even monthly production data are not final information- they can change in next month.

I know of course thats not Russia or Saudi Arabia with one state or at maximum couple big producers- its hard to collect information from thousands wildcatters but that' a problem.

Problem with Opec production from at least 6 sources and different stats - reuters, bloomberg, opec secondary estimates, country own estimates,  iea estimates and eia estimates is another problem.

 Whole problem is we really dont know anything for sure both with demand and supply with quite a big time lag-perfect uncertainty for traders.

Edited May 16, 2018 by Tomasz

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 minute ago, Tomasz said:

That's part of the problem. Much bigger problem for me is the difference between weekly US oil production estimates and monthly production data with 2 months lag- for example at the end of Aprill we get information about February's production.

They can differ really quite significantly - check 2017 year per example- monthly production where lower in spring, summer and at the beggininng of autummn and in final months of that year monthly production data where much bigger than weekly estimates. And even monthly production data are not final information- they can change in next month.

I know of course thats not Russia or Saudi Arabia with one state or at maximum couple big producers- its hard to collect information from thousands wildcatters but that' a problem.

Problem with Opec production from at least 6 sources and different stats - reuters, bloomberg, opec secondary estimates, country own estimates,  iea estimates and eia estimates is another problem.

That whole problem we dont know anything for sure with quite a big time lag-perfect fot traders.

I think this is where technology will come in. As technology in the oil industry advances, more data can be shared more readily to industry bodies such as the EIA. Reporting could theoretically be automatic and real-time.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

13 minutes ago, Rodent said:

I think this is where technology will come in. As technology in the oil industry advances, more data can be shared more readily to industry bodies such as the EIA. Reporting could theoretically be automatic and real-time.

I dont think so its possible - real-time data would naturally limit trading on oil market - such a lot of money for hedge funds, banks or private traders. A lot of giant financial institutions would loose a huge part of profit.