.

[SKEP + 229]

.

Edited August 15, 2019 by SKEP

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

29 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Watch for EIA CRUDE EXPORTS on next Wednesday weekly report. Could be new export record. 

Great news for U.S. Shale Producers.

Bad news for OPEC as more oil (competition) on the world market. 

Spread down to $4.00 from about $10.00 not to long ago.  

As bottlenecks start to alleviate the spread btw WTI and Brent closes to shipping differential

Traders be careful. API Tuesday inventory numbet could show a larger draw. If a lower weekly inventory is due to larger daily exports that compete on the world market it is all for naught. 

Drill rigs should continue to  come down as Producers are conscious of capital expenditures. However as new pipeline come online should see increased completion of 9,000 DUCs most of which are in the Permian will continue to see shale production new highs.

News of Cactus II and EPIC pipelines start commercial this week. Bringing new pipeline online takes time.  Not an easy proposition.  The first two should be fully operational by Q1 or Q2.

INCREASED EXPORTS ARE VERY GOOD NEWS FOR SHALE PRODUCERS

 

 

 

 

 

Increased exports are a very good thing if (just a few things)

1) The various numerous producers are getting the export prices VS domestic depressed prices of WTI or other benchmarks. Even if the producers are getting Brent that will be very very helpful to the shale producers, but very few shale producers have the access/capability to get Brent prices or other benchmarks that are higher than WTI

2) Increased production-exports from shale are very good but a 2 edged sword for shale producers and oil producers in general. It creates a glut that depresses the prices which in turn hurts the shale producers in particular and oil producers in general.

3) Also the narrowing of the spread between WTI and Brent can be a good thing if WTI is moving upwards not downwards, if the spread decreases in the downward trend it means the shale producers are hitting the so called critical price range, low 50s and then down into the upper 40s which is absolutely not good for shale producers specially.

4) OPEC guided and lead by KSA will and can only cut so much more production to compensate for increased US production exports into the global markets. After that certain no point of return in the cuts, its going to be a blood bath errm or rather an oil bath for the oil patch in general and the shale sector specifically.

Shale producers need to use discipline but then again its a different business model the shale sector. Many more pure shale producers will go out of business and it will get dominated by the integrated oil companies and the major independents. Lot of consolidation which could ve a very good thing for the sector and industry as an overall.

 

 

[Boat + 1,323]

Since the US is a net oil importer I consider posts like this fake news. Higher US exports just comes from previous imports.

Rig counts dropping has not changed the fact the number of drilled but uncompleted continues to rise. Yet rig count excitement prrvails. Weird.

Why is adding more pipeline capacity is a factor for increasing completions is a mystery to me. When there was plenty of takeaway capacity for oil the DUCT count was growing.

The fact is the US allows foreign countries to control storage flows through imports. Seems to me If you want higher oil prices just don’t allow most imports. 

[SKEP + 229]

Many more pure shale producers will go out of business and it will get dominated by the integrated oil companies and the major independents. Lot of consolidation which could ve a very good thing for the sector and industry as an overall

Yes

I should have distinguish btw strong Shale producers and weak producers.  Probably a couple of hundred producers will go out of business, be bought, merge or restructure.  

The consolidation is long overdue. Hard to let go sometimes.

Edited August 11, 2019 by SKEP

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

4 minutes ago, SKEP said:

Yes

(Bloomberg) -- The outlook for global oil demand is “fragile” amid growing signs of an economic slowdown, which squeezed consumption growth during the first five months of this year to the weakest in a decade, the International Energy Agency said.

The IEA, which advises major economies, trimmed forecasts for oil-demand growth this year and next, and warned that it may lower the estimates further as the U.S.-China trade conflict drags on. World consumption increased by just 520,000 barrels a day from January through May -- about half the rate seen the previous year, and the slowest for the period since 2008, the agency said.

“The situation is becoming even more uncertain: the U.S.-China trade dispute remains unresolved and in September new tariffs are due to be imposed,” the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report. “The outlook is fragile with a greater likelihood of a downward revision than an upward one.”

Brent crude futures slumped into a bear market this week as tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated, and was trading near $57 a barrel in London on Friday. In response, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, signaled that the kingdom and fellow nations within OPEC will keep production restrained.

The IEA trimmed its estimates for global oil demand growth in 2019 by 100,000 barrels a day to 1.1 million a day, implying a growth rate of about 1.1%. The outlook for 2020 was lowered by 50,000 barrels a day to 1.3 million a day, or a rate of 1.3%.

In the first half of the year, the only significant growth in demand was seen in China, the world’s second-biggest oil user, the IEA said.

Nonetheless, despite the downward economic pressures the agency still anticipates that demand will surge in the second half of the year, tightening markets sharply. Consumption will expand by 1.6 million barrels a day in the second half, almost three times the rate seen in the first.

Markets have tightened recently amid production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, who collectively pump about half of the world’s supply.

OPEC’s crude output fell 190,000 barrels a day to 29.71 million a day in July, remaining at the lowest in five years, the IEA said. That’s about 940,000 a day less than will be needed in the third quarter, and so should cause world oil stockpiles to contract, it predicted.

The group’s biggest member, Saudi Arabia, signaled this week that it may be prepared to do even more. The kingdom has contacted other producers in the coalition to discuss further options to contain oil’s slide, according to an official who declined to be identified.

The IEA report indicates that next year Riyadh and its allies may indeed need to cut output further to keep supply and demand in balance. Oil markets face a renewed surplus in 2020 amid growing production from OPEC’s rivals, most notably U.S. shale drillers. The agency expects non-OPEC supply will surge by 1.9 million barrels a day this year and then an additional 2.2 million barrels a day in 2020.

“Under our current assumptions, in 2020 the oil market will be well-supplied,” the agency said

[SKEP + 229]

.

Without pipeline capacity nowhere to ship oil so producers drilled and waited to complete.

The US imports are from US oil companies importing their production from around the world  example Exxon in Iraq, Chevron in Azerbijian, etc. Most of these agreements made years ago.

You say "There has been plenty of takeaway capacity" ?  Not true. Where have you been ?

THIS RECORD INCREASE IN U.S. EXPORTS I'M PREDICTINGFOR NEXT IS JUST THE START. I could be wrong may not be record weekly exports.

Notice Saudi ARAMCO is now finally cutting exports, instead of "production" . The only way to reduce world inventory is reduce EXPORTS.. .  .  .  Cutting "production" is a farce perpetrated by Saudis.  They cut production, maybe, but did not cut exports.  Orbital Insight Corp inventory surveys showed that OPEC inventories and world inventories never decreased. 

 Saudi EXPORTS (thus oil revenue) stayed the same and recent covering of Iran sanctions increased exports.   We will find out Monday on the ARAMCO conference call. Without Trump sanctions with Venezuela and Iran EXPORTS down over 3 mm bbls/d world inventory would be up few hundred million bbls more this year.

Looks like ARAMCO is going to try and get an IPO out Q1 2020 before Shalemagedon kicks into high gear. THIS IS ONE MORE SIGN OF DESPERATION ON THEIR PART. 

Do the Saudis realize once ARAMCO becomes a public company they won't be able to lie anymore. 

Looks like they are gonna list on the London Exchange. Would never qualify for New York Stock Exchange.

  

 

 

Edited August 12, 2019 by SKEP

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

6 hours ago, SKEP said:

Watch for EIA CRUDE EXPORTS on next WEDNESDAY 1:30 PM EIA WEEKLY REPORT.  Could be new crude export record. 

Great news for U.S. Shale Producers.

Bad news for OPEC as more oil (competition) on the world market. 

Must be Asia buying.  If China is buying does not necessarily mean possibility of trade deal . Those tankers were probably on their way to Gulf of Mexico a month ago .  .  .  .  before Trump mentioned additional 10% tariff.

Spread down to $4.00 from about $10.00 not to long ago.  

As bottlenecks start to alleviate the spread btw WTI and Brent closes to shipping differential to Asia.

Traders be careful. API Tuesday inventory number could show a larger draw. If a lower weekly inventory is due to larger daily exports that compete on the world market it is all for naught. I recommend waiting until the EIA numbers come out Weds.  Also API has an agenda.  Their numbers not reliable.

Drill rigs should continue to  come down as Producers are conscious of capital expenditures. This reduces new wells . . .  however as new pipeline come online should see increased completion of 9,000 DUCs most of which are in the Permian. Thus will continue to see shale production new highs.

News of Cactus II and EPIC pipelines start commercial this week. Bringing new pipeline online takes time.  Not an easy proposition.  Dont just open the valve. These first two should be fully operational by Q1 or Q2.  Grey Oaks later. 

INCREASED EXPORTS ARE VERY GOOD NEWS FOR SHALE PRODUCERS

Increased exports in an already over-supplied market is good news? What planet are you on?

Who gives a damn what the spread is between benchmarks if you drive the benchmarks down?

Please let me know if I am missing something...

[JR EWING + 123]

3 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Increased exports in an already over-supplied market is good news? What planet are you on?

Who gives a damn what the spread is between benchmarks if you drive the benchmarks down?

Please let me know if I am missing something...

more to the point the lower the prices go the closer they tend to become,

[SKEP + 229]

On 8/10/2019 at 11:19 PM, Douglas Buckland said:

.

Edited August 15, 2019 by SKEP

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,220]

9 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Increased exports in an already over-supplied market is good news? What planet are you on?

Who gives a damn what the spread is between benchmarks if you drive the benchmarks down?

Try not to take personally, but more oil on market relieves some of our debt, and can start paying down the few trillion owed to other countries. Will it drive pricing betweekn benchmarks closer, probably, not a bad thing. Free markets have always worked. Let it FLOW.....

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

51 minutes ago, SKEP said:

You are missing open minded independent thinking.

You are missing the having of an understanding of Free Market economics.

You are missing an understanding of Supply & Demand logic.

Besides that you are right on.

If you are in favor of government price controls and/or bailouts for mismanaged oil companies I respectfully disagree.

I'm not missing a thing!

Tell me, at the end of the day, does supplying more of a commodity, on an already flooded market, increase or decrease the price of the commodity. Regardless of free market economics.

Demand for oil is 'soft' at the moment, pumping more oil into the system will tend to drive the price DOWN. This is not rocket science!

As far as the shale oil industry is concerned, driving the price down would narrow any 'margins' they were operating on.

Tell me I'm wrong...

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

11 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Try not to take personally, but more oil on market relieves some of our debt, and can start paying down the few trillion owed to other countries. Will it drive pricing betweekn benchmarks closer, probably, not a bad thing. Free markets have always worked. Let it FLOW.....

I'm curious. How much money is owed to America by other countries? Any idea?

[SKEP + 229]

Permian producers profits and return on capital were harmed as a result of lack of pipeline capacity .  West Texas oil price was trading at huge discount (over $20 at one point) to WTI Cushing price . . . Which was selling at a discount ($10 at one point) of Brent.  

Recent news took ALL benchmarks down. But with recent U.S. EXPORT RECORD last week WTI has come back more than Brent. 

Therefore shale is getting more for their oil relative to other benchmarks.  Without increase in exports US shale would be $2 or $3 lower.

Edited August 11, 2019 by SKEP

[SKEP + 229]

2 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I'm not missing a thing!

Tell me, at the end of the day, does supplying more of a commodity, on an already flooded market, increase or decrease the price of the commodity. Regardless of free market economics.

Demand for oil is 'soft' at the moment, pumping more oil into the system will tend to drive the price DOWN. This is not rocket science!

As far as the shale oil industry is concerned, driving the price down would narrow any 'margins' they were operating on.

Tell me I'm wrong...

Doug 

We've had this discussion 8 times already. It's getting tired

Lets just respectfully disagree and leave it at that

OK

If you want just go back to previous discussions if you need a response.

I'm against US shale cutting back so Saudi Arabia can balance their budget and butcher more journalist.

Edited August 11, 2019 by SKEP

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,220]

4 minutes ago, Douglas Buckland said:

I'm curious. How much money is owed to America by other countries? Any idea?

Since WW2 or just last 5 years? You can surely google for the answer.

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

5 hours ago, SKEP said:

Permian producers profits and return on capital were harmed as a result of lack of pipeline capacity .  West Texas oil price was trading at huge discount (over $20 at one point) to WTI Cushing price . . . Which was selling at a discount ($10 at one point) of Brent.  

Recent news took ALL benchmarks down. But with recent U.S. EXPORT RECORD last week WTI has come back more than Brent. 

Therefore shale is getting more for their oil relative to other benchmarks.  Without increase in exports US shale would be $2 or $3 lower.

Lack of take away capacity, lack of export handling capacity were and are part of an issue for prices being depressed for regional shale and benchmarks in the US. But again you cant just export all the oil without bringing the prices down, you bring the prices down, the shale patch gets burnt if the prices are below say 58$/bbl for most producers  (just rough number), it would be much better if those prices for WTI maintained in the 65$ range and Brent was @ 70 or 75$.  WTI coming back more than Brent has no positive effect on the shale producers if it is @ 50-55$/bbl (only way it is and will be if the costs for most shale producers is in the $30s and $40s range) , they will hurt more, it has to be above $60 for most. 

Shale isnt getting more if the cost of production + profit to stay in business without major losses isnt there.

I can to a agree point if the exports werent there , shale would be lower and that would kill more shale producers. However, MOST US shale producers are not getting the best pricing still

1) Most shale producers dont have access to major world buyers

2) Unable to directly negotiate exports for their production (several reasons, one factor is being "new" in the market place with limited historical production and export and trading experience, and another factor is the lack of transparency for the ability to maintain and sustain production levels)

3) Pipeline take away and export capacity

4) The types and quality of crude oils and condensates that are being produced are very new to the global markets and the demand of the type of crude oil needed by most world refineries. But that can be overcome to an extent.

5) Reliability of overall US exports since we are fairly new to the scene

6) Lack of a transparent quality set of crude oil and condensates etc. Once that can be established on a very transparent and reliable basis it will make it easier for marketing and for buyers to visualize their own feedstock runs , blending requirements and product slates.

There are  many different streams of shale crude oil and condensates etc. There needs to be every specific blends offered and for that we need to have a very strong set up and understanding with producers, midstream companies, exporters and buyers. For most oil exporting countries they have a very narrow range of established older crude oil specs and they can easily add any new streams into that mix without too much technical issues . There needs to be 2 or 3 standard blends of shale and condensates for the export market based on the regional demand of the refining sector of that geographical and sub geographical area.

 

We are doing custom blends for a lot of our customers and jv partners and also offering new export and custom blended streams for new customers ranging from refineries to petchem plants .

 

We need to have the slump in demand and overall economic weakness to go away and the prices to get into a higher range but the over supply is not going to remove the demand slump and therefore the lower prices.

 

 

[SKEP + 229]

2 hours ago, ceo_energemsier said:

Lack of take away capacity, lack of export handling capacity were and are part of an issue for prices being depressed for regional shale and benchmarks in the US. But again you cant just export all the oil without bringing the prices down, you bring the prices down, the shale patch gets burnt if the prices are below say 58$/bbl for most producers  (just rough number), it would be much better if those prices for WTI maintained in the 65$ range and Brent was @ 70 or 75$.  WTI coming back more than Brent has no positive effect on the shale producers if it is @ 50-55$/bbl (only way it is and will be if the costs for most shale producers is in the $30s and $40s range) , they will hurt more, it has to be above $60 for most. 

Shale isnt getting more if the cost of production + profit to stay in business without major losses isnt there.

I can to a agree point if the exports werent there , shale would be lower and that would kill more shale producers. However, MOST US shale producers are not getting the best pricing still

1) Most shale producers dont have access to major world buyers

THEY GO THRU TRADING FIRMS LIKE TAFIGURA, GIVNOR OR VITOL 1. Pipeline 2. Logistics & marketing 3. Exporting

2) Unable to directly negotiate exports for their production (several reasons, one factor is being "new" in the market place with limited historical production and export and trading experience, and another factor is the lack of transparency for the ability to maintain and sustain production levels)

SEE # 1 ABOVE.  USE TRADING FIRMS

3) Pipeline take away and export capacity

TRAFIGURA, VITOL and GOVNOR have take away capacity.

4) The types and quality of crude oils and condensates that are being produced are very new to the global markets and the demand of the type of crude oil needed by most world refineries. But that can be overcome to an extent.

PLENTY OF BLENDING CSPACITY.  IS DONE AT EXPORT TERMINAL AND EVEN SHIP TO SHIP AT MAJOR PORTS WORLDWIDE

5) Reliability of overall US exports since we are fairly new to the scene

YES NEW, BUT QUICK STUDY . . . LEARNING FAST.  HAVE TO

 

6) Lack of a transparent quality set of crude oil and condensates etc. Once that can be established on a very transparent and reliable basis it will make it easier for marketing and for buyers to visualize their own feedstock runs , blending requirements and product slates.

HAVE BEEN AT IT FOR A WHILE. ALMOST THERE

There are  many different streams of shale crude oil and condensates etc. There needs to be every specific blends offered and for that we need to have a very strong set up and understanding with producers, midstream companies, exporters and buyers. For most oil exporting countries they have a very narrow range of established older crude oil specs and they can easily add any new streams into that mix without too much technical issues . There needs to be 2 or 3 standard blends of shale and condensates for the export market based on the regional demand of the refining sector of that geographical and sub geographical area.

TTHAT IS ALL BEING WORKED OUT . MANY DIFFERENT SPECS FOR WTI. EX: WEST TEXAS v EAGLEFORD ETC.  

We are doing custom blends for a lot of our customers an

 

You already said all this.  You're repeating yourself.

Bottom line  . . . The shakeout is coming 2020. 

Juxtapose increased supply against BNP PARIBAS report projecting quick uptake of Electric Vehicles and demise of oil

The majors, OPEC, etc know what's coming . .   Get the best price while the going is good. 

OPEC gonna wait out shale .  LOL. They will be waiting a long time. Saudis are praying for the US to attack Iran.  Trump won't , thank God.

Most all agree oil indusyry demise will happen . . . It's just the timing that is debatable. 

Fewer shale producers and consolidation 2020.

Most shale producers can make money in low $50s.  That will change when real price competition commences sometime during 2020.

Edited August 12, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

17 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Increased exports in an already over-supplied market is good news? What planet are you on?

Who gives a damn what the spread is between benchmarks if you drive the benchmarks down?

Please let me know if I am missing something...

Perhaps the goal is to drive Brent below WTI can you imagine the pressure OPEC will build to readjust. 

Being proud of your country is one thing, wishing for world dominance at the risk of changing the order is not healthy.

Get a grip and be pleased with what you have.

Lets drive the price of oil into the ground then sell it for peanuts, there are some smart folks on this forum...

[James Regan + 1,776]

On 8/10/2019 at 5:33 PM, SKEP said:

Watch for EIA CRUDE EXPORTS on next WEDNESDAY 1:30 PM EIA WEEKLY REPORT.  Could be new U.S. crude export record. 

Great news for U.S. Shale Producers.

Bad news for OPEC as more oil (competition) on the world market. 

Must be Asia buying. China is scheduled to receive 11 million barrels of U.S. crude in August.  Chinese refiner Unipec (sub of Sinopec) just contracted for VLCC (2 mm bbls) to load US oil mid September. THIS IS FIRST ORDER SINCE TRUMP ANNOUNCED NEW 10% TARIFF. Could be a good sign. But may not. So far total 4 mm bbls going to China in September that I'm aware of. (Asia/China want US oil but Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) even more so.) Look for record NGL shipments in addition to record crude exports.

Spread droped down to $4.00 from about $10.00 not to long ago.  

As bottlenecks start to alleviate the spread btw WTI and Brent closes to shipping differential to Asia.

Traders be careful. API Tuesday inventory number could show a larger draw. If a lower weekly inventory is due to larger daily exports that compete on the world market it is all for naught. I recommend waiting until the EIA numbers come out Weds.  Also API has an agenda.  Their numbers not reliable.

Drill rigs should continue to  come down as Producers are conscious of capital expenditures and also simply due to productivity gains. This reduces new wells . . .  however as new pipeline come online should see focus on increased completion of 9,000 DUCs most of which are in the Permian. Thus will continue to see shale production new highs.

News of Cactus II and EPIC pipelines start commercial this week. Dont get to far ahead of oneself. Bringing new pipeline online takes time.  Not an easy proposition.  Dont just open the valve. These first two should be fully operational by Q1 or Q2 2020.  Grey Oaks later. 

INCREASED EXPORTS ARE VERY GOOD NEWS FOR SHALE PRODUCERS

Increased exports are good for Shale, please explain in the long run?

The more oil you export the smaller the spread from WTI to Brent, the smaller the spread or let’s say both are down to $50Bbl, if you are situated on the other side of the world do you buy Brent or WTI?

Dont forget the +/- $4Bbl Tanker costs etc etc.

Be careful what you wish for....

[SKEP + 229]

10 minutes ago, James Regan said:

Increased exports are good for Shale, please explain in the long run?

The more oil you export the smaller the spread from WTI to Brent, the smaller the spread or let’s say both are down to $50Bbl, if you are situated on the other side of the world do you buy Brent or WTI?

Dont forget the +/- $4Bbl Tanker costs etc etc.

Be careful what you wish for....

If you read my post I state oil spread will drop to shipping differential. Shipping deferential not $4.00 .  Usually $2.00 to $2.50.  Maybe lower as insurance has increased in Mideast. 

Free Markets, Competition, Self Regulating Economy, Invisible Hand, Adam Smith "Wealth of Nations"

You must be a Millennial . .   . . Everyone is a Socialist these days.

Go Bernie.  Feel the Burn ! Ben & Jerry's Ice cream just named a new ice cream flavor after Bernie.  It's called Bernie's Back. Doesn't sound very appealing.

Ahhhgggaahhh.

Edited August 11, 2019 by SKEP

[James Regan + 1,776]

8 minutes ago, SKEP said:

If you read my post I state oil spread will drop to shipping differential. Shipping deferential not $4.00 .  Usually $2.00 to $2.50.  Maybe lower as insurance has increased in Mideast. 

Free Markets, Competition, Self Regulating Economy, Invisible Hand, Adam Smith "Wealth of Nations"

You must be a Millennial . .   . . Everyone is a Socialist these days.

Go Bernie.  Feel the Burn ! Ben & Jerry's Ice cream just named a new ice cream flavor after Bernie.  It's called Bernie's Back. Doesn't sound very appealing.

Ahhhgggaahhh.

Arghhhhhhh back, no I’m an old git, and I understand the mentality of the US very well.

If your argument was based on fundamentals which come from a healthy and sustainable business model I would be more sympathetic but we all know that what booms will bust.

Dont stress our industry will work itself out and we will still be driving 7litre  Dualies and not dodgems...

Edited August 11, 2019 by James Regan

[SKEP + 229]

20 hours ago, Douglas Buckland said:

Increased exports in an already over-supplied market is good news? What planet are you on?

Who gives a damn what the spread is between benchmarks if you drive the benchmarks down?

Please let me know if I am missing something...

Doug I saw mention that your company worked in Kurdistan. 

Is all your business international ? Is that why you are against shale success ?

Edited August 11, 2019 by SKEP

[SKEP + 229]

1 hour ago, James Regan said:

Arghhhhhhh back, no I’m an old git, and I understand the mentality of the US very well.

If your argument was based on fundamentals which come from a healthy and sustainable business model I would be more sympathetic but we all know that what booms will bust.

Dont stress our industry will work itself out and we will still be driving 7litre  Dualies and not dodgems...

Dualie 

I learned a new word today

So what is your take on US mentality.

 

Edited August 12, 2019 by SKEP

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

2 hours ago, SKEP said:

Doug I saw mention that your company worked in Kurdistan. 

Is all your business international ? Is that why you are against shale success ?

The vast majority of my career has been in the international arena.

But let's get something straight, I am not 'against shale success'. What I am against is shale success at the expense of the entire industry. I am against wasting an American resource simply due to greed and using it as a political tool in the present global political arena. Finally, I am against those who will exploit the resource in a never ending battle to turn a profit, go belly up and leave the American taxpayer on the hook to P&A the wells and clean the mess up.

If that makes me un-American or un-patriotic then we have different definitions for those terms.

[Douglas Buckland + 6,308]

13 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Since WW2 or just last 5 years? You can surely google for the answer.

I was thinks more towards what is presently owed and still on the books.

As you suggested, I'll find out on my own.